Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

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No.

I should apologise here. I am new to this forum and I failed to add IMO after the statement. I have no knowledge about this whatsoever and my suggestion the dog harness may have been in the River was speculation.

Sorry if it appeared to be factual. I did not intend this and will be more careful in future posts.

Thanks for flagging this.
Don't worry :)
 
In my opinion it was interesting to hear that when asked about the distance searched in the press conference, ‘the point’ of entry was mentioned. Are there any thoughts on how they know the exact point other than guessing that somebody would not move too far away from their phone?

Any digital and moving digital trace from phone to Fitbit would give the police some certainty she fell in and where that happened.

Also, I can’t imagine there are any 100% guarantees with respect to a detailed underwater search, so we shouldn’t necessarily expect this to be resolved by sonar any time soon. There is always a sad likelihood this will be a chance surface discovery in due course and after some delay.
 
Yes, I don't understand either. York, for instance, has had many people drown in the Ouse. Megan Roberts was not found for five weeks despite knowing where she went in. Very sad story.

Because PF has gone on his crusade even though he's been involved in searches where the body has been found weeks/months laters by others.
 
I thought that PF was choosing his words carefully in his interview with GB News tonight, possibly because he'd been briefed by the police (JMO). He's had decades of experience looking for people who have drowned and I think he must know what he's talking about. IMO.
 
Yes, I don't understand either. York, for instance, has had many people drown in the Ouse. Megan Roberts was not found for five weeks despite knowing where she went in. Very sad story.

I live in York and hence the comment. Rory Hatfield is another who sticks in my mind constantly who was never found….

However, for many people that our river has taken (and I’m aware the demographics are quite different to the Wyre) it’s taken a lot longer sadly than two weeks to find them.

I guess I’m just getting a little fed up around the media circus surrounding the police and the family when 9 times out of 10 the most common denominator is the body of water.

I’m not dismissing other avenues….how can you with lack of evidence? I just know after witnessing extensive river searches over a period of many years they are not always successful but the outcome sadly remains the same….

I really feel for the police and everyone searching. They are doing the best they can.
 
Who is the witness at 08:50am when the two dogs briefly interacted ??
AFAIK they’ve not named them. I don’t recall if they have even said if they are male or female.



Taken from the news source I linked to earlier.

‘By 8.50am on Friday morning, she'd bumped into another dog walker on the path’

Another source

8:50am (approximately): A dog walker – somebody who knows Nicola – saw her walking around the lower field with her dog. Their two dogs interacted briefly before the witness left the field via the river path’

 
TRANSCRIPTION OF PRESS CONFERENCE

7TH FEBRUARY

Superintendent
- Good afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen. It's now been 11 days since Nicola Bulley, a 45 yr. old mother of two, went missing here in St. Michaels, Lancashire. It remains, and always has been, our priority to find Nicola as soon as possible and to bring her back to her family. Her family continues to be supported by specially trained officers who update the family daily and support them in other ways.

I want to take you through the unprecedented number of enquiries that the police team has been doing in the last 11 days. We've received literally thousands of pieces of information from the public, the wider community, Nicola's family and friends, which we've been combing through diligently. This means, at the moment, there are around 500 active pieces of information and lines of enquiry that we're working on to try and find answers for Nicola's family. We have a team of 40 or so detectives, under a Senior Investigating Officer, working daily to comb through this enormous amount of information. This is normal in a missing person inquiry and does not indicate that there is any suspicious element to this story. The enquiry team remains fully open minded to any information that may indicate where Nicola is, or what happened to her. Some of the specific pieces of information and the lines of enquiry that they've been undertaking include:
  • House to house in the village.
  • Looking at CCTV, the various pieces of dashcam that have been submitted to the enquiry.
  • Identifying and tracing and speaking to key witnesses, a number of whom have come into the enquiry and been spoken to and given valuable information.
  • Digital and telephony - this includes Nicola's Fitbit and her mobile phone, which has been fully examined.
  • We've now identified around 700 vehicles that drove through the village on that morning on the 27th. January at around 9:10-9:15 and we're in the process of speaking to all of those drivers to try and find out if they have any dashcam footage, what they saw on that day or anything else that may be of value to the police enquiry.
We remain very grateful to all of our partners and the wider community for the help they've given. In particular, and I've mentioned some of these in the past, this includes His Majesty's Coast Guard, Lancashire Fire Rescue, Lancaster area and Bowland Mountain Rescue, other forces and national experts in different fields, as well as the Specialist Group International or SGI, who have offered their assistance to the family, free of charge, and have been working under the direction of our local police search teams, to help us.

Our work around the search of the river and the riverbank continues and this includes many pieces of different technical equipment, including sonar, pole cameras, drones, underwater drones, and so on, as well as specialist dogs. As I said on Friday, the river is a complex area to search it's not a still water, it's a fast flowing, moving water that is tidal in parts and, as acknowledged by some of the many national search advisors and experts that we've been consulting throughout, this makes it particularly complex. We have already discounted particular areas of the river but as they are tidal, we have researched them to ensure that nothing has been washed back into those search areas. This is why you may see some areas already searched being re-searched, for no other reason than it is tidal. We have 6 people searching the riverbanks every day. These are specially trained search officers who are very experienced, both in missing people enquiries and in other enquiries, who are systematically and methodically searching the riverbank and the open ground. We also have a number of divers from the regional underwater search unit and they are working with SGI and the other partners that I have mentioned to search the river itself.

Throughout this investigation, as I've said, we remain fully open to any information, any information, that is credible and factual to try and trace Nicola and bring answers for her family, but it does remain our belief that Nicola sadly fell into the river and that this is a missing person enquiry. But it is important to stress that any information that comes in, that indicates otherwise, is being checked out all the time and negated as each enquiry comes up. We're not closed, in anyway, to any particular line of enquiry and we remain genuinely open to that. All these extensive enquiries, however, have so far not found anything of note, any indications of physical objects in the river, such as natural debris, trees and the like have been already identified by the original divers and discounted, so further sightings of that debris are only items that we already knew were on the riverbed or in the riverbank.

We would ask that people in the wider community, particularly on social media and online, do not speculate as to what may have happened to Nicola. This is particularly hurtful to her family, to her children, to her partner Paul, her parents, her sister and her friends, because it's not helpful to them, it's distressing and it's distracting for the police enquiry. Nor is it helpful if people, particularly if they come from outside of the area, take it upon themselves to take the law into their own hands by trying to, for example, break into empty property. They may mean well, they may want to help, but they can help in thinking back, if they were in the area, to what information they may have of relevance to the police and holding the family in their thoughts. But we will not tolerate online abuse of anyone, including innocent witnesses, members of the family and friends, of local businesses, or of criminal damage or burglary and we'll be taking a strong line on that, as you would expect.

We have engaged with and worked shoulder to shoulder with a number of very specific experts, as I mentioned earlier. These include the National Crime Agency, who have reviewed all of the police investigation so far and have not identified any other lines of enquiry other than what we had already identified. Likewise, we are working with the Police National Search Advisor, who again, has not identified anything in the search strategy or the search area, the physical parameters, that we have not already explored and I say this to reassure the local community, in particular, as well as Nicola's family, that all possible lines of enquiry search or investigation are being exhausted.

I'm just going to reiterate, for those who may not have caught some of the earlier detail, some of the key elements of this case that may jog somebody's memory if they were about on Friday morning, 27th. January. We know that Nicola was last seen on the upper field next to the River Wyre here in St. Michaels at 9:10. She had taken her spaniel Willow out for a walk and CCTV that we've looked at, shows that Nicola did not leave either the allotment lane exit of that riverside area, nor the Rowanwater Caravan Park, which has been discounted, nor any of the other locked or areas covered by CCTV. As I said Friday, this only leaves the path along Garstang Lane onto the A586 which is not covered by CCTV but the more of those 700 or so vehicle drivers that we can identify who can confirm that they have neither dashcam footage or saw anything on that morning will help us to close that very small gap.

We can say with confidence, therefore, that we believe Nicola remained in the riverside area. I understand that this is frustrating for those observing the investigation when the river has been searched and Nicola has not been found. That does not mean, however, that Nicola was not in the river, at some point, due to the tidal flow of the river. For this reason our search of the river and the riverbanks extends out to the sea, particularly the area from Knott End out towards Morecambe

So we continue to appeal for drivers on that morning and I will remind people of Nicola's description, the clothing that she was wearing and her movements on that day. Nicola is:
  • A white lady, 5'3" with shoulder length brown hair.
  • She speaks with an Essex accent.
  • She was last seen wearing a knee length black gilet jacket and underneath an Engelbert Strauss black long sleeve jacket, to the waist.
  • She was wearing black jeans, long green walking socks tucked into her jeans and green ankle length wellies.
  • She has her hair tied in a ponytail.
  • Wearing a pale blue Fitbit.
I have a small number of detail extra to the timeline that I provided on Friday that fills in some of the gaps on the morning that Nicola disappeared. They include that at:
  • 8:26 am. - Nicola left her home address with her children and I know there's been CCTV images from her doorbell footage that have been released, that may jog someone's memory.
  • 8:40 am. - Nicola dropped her children off at school here in St. Michaels.
  • 8:43 am. - She was seen on the river path towards the gate and the bench on the lower field.
  • 8:47 am. - Someone who knows Nicola saw her walking along the lower field with her dog and the two dogs briefly interacted together.
  • 8:53 am. - She sent an e-mail to her boss.
  • 8:59 am. - She sent a message to a friend.
  • 9:01 am. - She logged onto a team's call.
  • 9:10 am. - We have the last confirmed sighting of Nicola on the upper field, walking her dog.
  • 9:20 am. - We know from telephony work that her phone was located on the bench.
  • 9:30 am. - The team's call ended, but Nicola's phone stayed logged in.
  • 9:33 am. (approximately) - Her phone and her dog were found by another witness who doesn't know her.
I would ask people to dig back into their memory, 11 days ago, to that morning and to phone us on 101 or if there's a sighting of Nicola on 999, or I do now have an e-mail address for direct contact into the investigation room for us to receive e-mail - nicolabulleyinvestigation@lancashire.police.uk. Details of this are published on our website,

I just want to end by holding Nicola's family in our thoughts. This is an agonising time for them, particularly her two little girls who are only 6 and 9. It's very, very distressing for them not to have found Nicola and to ask everyone to remain constructive, cooperative with the enquiry, not to do anything that would thwart us and hold us back from trying to find Nicola as quickly as possible, to remain respectful to each other in the search, that's including the enquiry team and the local people, for whom this is also very difficult. This is a tight knit community of people who have come out in force, as have our partners, and I would thank them again very much for their work so far. Thank you. I'm happy to take questions.

Reporter - Last night your independent expert, Peter Faulding told our channel that he did not believe that Nicola was in the water. He said he believes the phone could be a decoy, that there could be third party involvement. How helpful is that for you when the police are saying it's hypothesis is that she somehow fell into water and yet you've got part of the team investigating this case basically contradicting?

Superintendent - Well, I thank SGI for the help that they've given to the team. As I said before, our search has not found Nicola in the river and then a re-search, in parts, by SGI found the same. That does not mean, as I said a few minutes ago, that Nicola has not been in the river and in the light of other enquiries being discounted from the investigation so far, although we are keeping an absolutely open mind to anything new, then clearly our main belief is that Nicola did fall into the river. Clearly, Mr. Faulding isn't included within all the investigation detail, anymore than the members of the public are that I'm briefing through these sorts of press conferences. So we would ask that we be allowed time to continue with those enquiries and to release to the public only what is relevant for them at that time. Thank you.

Reporter - It's the 12th. day that Nicola Bulley has been missing. For every day, concerns will increase, no doubt, for everyone. How confident are you that your team will find Nicola alive?

Superintendent - It is 12 days since Nicola's been missing, and clearly a 15 kilometre stretch of the river is a complex, difficult and moving body of water to search. I do believe that we will find Nicola, but nature is a powerful force, changes our parameters constantly, which is why we are bringing in the number of experts that we have so that all the best brains and trained people in the country can give us the absolute best chance of finding Nicola. Thank you.

Reporter - (asks how many of the 700 vehicles that were seen coming through have been identified and driver's spoken to)

Superintendent - Well, I don't have a number for you but a number of vehicles have already submitted dashcam footage. We know that, around that number, passed through the village that morning, clearly not everyone has dashcam footage, so it's... information is coming in in literally by the hundreds if not thousands, almost everyday, and therefore it will take us some time to wade through that information.

Reporter - (asks if the vehicles were seen on any entry and exit footage to the river)

Superintendent - Well, I'm not going to talk about how some of those vehicles have been identified, but suffice to say we have identified them. We are in the process of writing to all of them to ask them to come forward and either confirm or negate whether they have anything that they could help us with.

Reporter - That's not being done in door to door terms, you've not been knocking on all their doors?

Superintendent - Clearly, not all drivers are local, so we are writing to all those who aren't in the local area, but as I said before, extensive house to house has been done, so if they're in the village they will have been spoken to. Thank you.

Reporter - Are you (inaudible) today that the hypothesis that you're working with is that Nicola fell into the river and didn't leave the riverside, but obviously after the press conference last week her friends and family were very quick to come back and say actually there's a CCTV that is broken which we've seen a lot of reaction of that day and there's been observation made by the police "experts" (talking of police who are not part of the investigation giving interviews in MSM, I'm assuming!) who've said - how can the police at this stage, with the information that's in the public domain that they've read about through the newspapers or the rest of it, 'how can they rule out foul play'. So I just wondered what you would say to those concerns, raised by, kind of, other people who are observing this case externally but also Nicola's family and friends about - have all those avenues thoroughly been checked to completely rule out that possibility?

Superindendent - As I said before, we will not be conducting all elements of the investigation in the public eye. You would not expect us to, that would not be the normal way things are done anyway, but I would like to reassure the community that nothing in this investigation so far, it has been checked out if it's come into it suggesting crime it has been checked out and discounted. So every single potential third party line of enquiry, any potential suspicious or criminal element has been looked at and discounted. Now people who observe and make comment on it in the media, even if they have experience of policing, clearly, are not in the enquiry team and will not be privy to all of that, but the fact that the National Crime Agency peer review has absolutely, wholeheartedly, not identified any other line of enquiry that we have not already started looking at or completed should give reassurance to the wider public.

Reporter - What sort of detail have you searched the wider riverside area away from water?

Superintendent - I'm not able to give exact distances from the river to the riverbank, but clearly, if Nicola's entered the water and got into distress and ended up on the riverbank, struggling to cope with the fast moving water, then clearly the riverbank, the immediate riverbanks, have been our main area of search, but as I think I said last Friday, we've searched within a mile radius of the point that she last went missing and the publicity has been such now that I think local anglers, wildfowlers, people enjoying the countryside, dog walkers, local residents, people who work in the local area, will be very, very aware of Nicola's description, of this case, of all the publicity that's been generated and will be looking out in those wider areas. Thank you.

Reporter - Have you been able to obtain any information from Nicola's Fitbit device at all?

Superintendent - That remains ongoing, but nothing so far that has indicated any particular helpful piece of information. Thank you.

Reporter - In terms of CCTV, would that include The Cartford Inn which is further down river? I gather you only got that footage yesterday?

Superindendent - I'm not able to give very specific details of CCTV beyond the local village. I am aware what's been done in the local village, but everything of relevance to the river and the riverside is being considered, so I'm sure that is as well. Thank you.

Reporter - Your working hypothesis is that Nikki went into the river, as that's continuing to be scanned and checked over by the specialist search teams - How much extra resources, in the coming days, would you expect to put into other lines of enquiry?

Superindendent - Well, as I said, the team of detectives are numbered around 40. That is under constant review, so if the search area becomes too wide or the investigation too complex, the Senior Investigating Officer, over that inquiry team, will immediately ask for further resources. We're a reasonably sized force, we are very used to bringing in officers from other parts of the county. This is clearly garnering national publicity and we will be very quick to move them in if we need to and if we have to go to regional or even national support. We're very open to being led by the facts, to put in whatever is needed to this investigation to it, but I am satisfied, with assurances from the Senior Investigating Officer, that she has all of the investigation resources that she needs at this time. Thank you.

Reporter - You mentioned that amateur investigators are trying to break into properties - Can you elaborate on that?

Superintendent - Well, there are some properties along the riverside which are empty or derelict and whilst it may be well-intentioned that people think that that could be a line of enquiry, I would ask them to desist from doing that. In some cases it may be criminal if they're breaking in and causing damage or committing a burglary. We have gone into derelict property, including ones on the riverside, any under renovation that are empty, with the permission of those owners and their knowledge. We have searched houses matching that sort of profile on the riverbank, including the grounds. Because there is no criminal element yet identified and we don't expect there to be in this enquiry, then we're not starting to go into houses, because that's not where the enquiry is leading us. Thank you.

Reporter - (inaudible) because nothing has been found in the river, that doesn't mean that Nicola didn't enter the water. In the same ilk, because nobody has seen her leaving this Garstang Lane entrance or exit doesn't mean that she couldn't have. Is there any chance that Nicola could have left by that way, either by herself or with somebody else?

Superintendent - Yes that is a possibility, but that's why we appeal for drivers to come forward to try and close off that avenue, or to at least explain and negate any sightings on that lane, the lane between the riverside on Garstang Lane onto the A586 isn't long. People may have forgotten. They may have been away on holiday and missed much of this publicity. So if that is you and you've returned from holiday or returned from an absence and this incident has, sort of, largely passed you by till now, I would ask you to think back to Friday, 27th., and whether you were on Garstang Lane and help us, exactly, close that gap. Thanks.

Reporter - At what point do you stop searching the river?

Superintendent - We'll stop searching the river when all the national expert advice and our own staff confirm to us that there is nothing further to be gained by doing that. However, that does not mean that other enquiries might not continue. So I've mentioned already that the search has extended as far as the sea, Morecambe Bay, for those who know it, is a very wide bay and the area from Knott End towards Morecambe is particularly rural, so there will be other elements that will remain being searched. People might not see the river itself being searched, but the enquiry team continues to work really diligently far into the evening every single day to try and close anything else off.
Thank you.
 
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Yes, which is why i was speculating about a quad bike being able to cross the river where the tracks fade out - there is a sandbank there which would imply the river is shallower and there is a tree line on the other bank leading down there, so maybe there is a path up to the church and out onto the road.

This was before I saw there was vehicular access to the weir from Allotment Lane which is likely where these tracks come from. Most likely quad bike imo.
Where NB supposedly went into the water, on the other side the woods can lead on to elm lane the main road to Inskip. An accomplice waiting on the other side with a jet ski, hop over and back and Bob's your uncle. But that's just so far fetched it would only happen bond movies. I think she fell in the water.
 
Thinking of misadventure-
I'd be interested to know if NB is the type to make bad split second decisions...I can be a little like that. My husband on the other hand is the complete opposite is overly cautious and automatically thinks worst case scenario. I can make risky decisions...not entirely sure why.
I can definitely imagine trying to get the harness out the water if it ended up in there, prob more so if it was an expensive one (stupid i know) and if I was wearing welly boots. My husband would say "just leave it we'll get another one" 2 different types of people...
 
I have take the statement "had been in the river" to mean they are thinking she is now nearer to the sea? JMO.
Also, I seem to remember the two female witnesses, (yellow coat and red coat) had stated they had already given statements to LE and were puzzled why there was then a public appeal using photos of them? Does anyone else remember that, sorry can't find a link. If this is the case, why would LE issue the appeal after they had obviously spoken with them? Would appreciate anyone else's thinking on this?
I think it might’ve been to ask more specific questions with regards other things reported to them - IMO/just guessing.
They might have already given their name and said they had/hadn’t seen Nicola but the police might’ve been asking instead about more specific info about other people or things they might’ve seen/not seen or wanted further info of the route they’d covered etc.
 
Sorry if it’s been said already but couldn’t they tell anything from looking at Fitbit heart rate info, I mean if they could access it, if it increased a lot around that time it could indicate a struggle in the water??
This could be part of the evidence that makes them certain she is in the water. Despite people stating the Fitbit hadn't been synced since the previous Tuesday, that does not mean they haven't been able to subsequently obtain data from the Fitbit. Also, it was her friend that that stated the Fitbit had not been synced, not LE. Although, after all this time, you'd expect them just to state it. A perfect example of me reasoning myself out of a particular train of thought!
 
Can anyone confirm how far st michaels airfield is from where she is last seen?
 

Police and divers at loggerheads over what happened to Nicola Bulley: Officers searching for missing mother insist they have investigated 'third party' involvement and 500 lines of inquiry - as diver insists she isn't in river and hints at foul play​

 
Yes, I don't understand either. York, for instance, has had many people drown in the Ouse. Megan Roberts was not found for five weeks despite knowing where she went in. Very sad story.


Another example here - case of Mary Yap who also wasn't found close to the point she entered the river. Found 12 miles away and almost 2 months later ( Peter Faulding will recall the case as he worked on it)

(There were a ton of similar cases when I last looked, this was just one I happened to post on WS about)

 
I can definitely imagine trying to get the harness out the water if it ended up in there, prob more so if it was an expensive one (stupid i know) my husband would say "just leave it we'll get another one" 2 different types of people...
Imo if the harness had been wet it would have been flagged up but it wasn't - hence the initial speculation about a ball.
 
The River police at Wapping on the Thames have a little museum in the building. Occasionally open to the public. Interesting place to visit. They have some body drags on display. Before the advent of modern technology you just had people with a long piece of thin rope with a bar on the end with several small grappling hooks. Throw them in the area of interest repeatedly and see what you come up with.

Don't know if they are doing this here but I think this might be quite a good approach.

It seems better than divers and sonar because a hook will pick up clothing very effectively.

I'm sure sonar is great but you could miss things. The person viewing the screen needs to be 100% focussed and know exactly what they are looking at.
 
I find this odd as I live in London and the Thames is a fast-flowing tidal monster of a river and I can’t think offhand of any cases of people falling in and not being found. We have cases of bodies washed up that no-one can identify.
See my reply below re York….there have sadly had lots of missing people over the years and despite having experienced teams have struggled to locate them for quite a lot longer than two weeks.

I sit on the fence re river or 3rd party….I just find the media circus about ‘why haven’t you found her in the river yet?’ frustrating….
 
Also, I can’t imagine there are any 100% guarantees with respect to a detailed underwater search, so we shouldn’t necessarily expect this to be resolved by sonar any time soon. There is always a sad likelihood this will be a chance surface discovery in due course and after some delay.
There's also a chance she may never be found and I think the family should be preparing themselves and the two girls for that. Thinking Corrie, Claudia here.
 
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