Hi, local here & recent grad of UVA (so recent that Hannah & I have mutual friends on FB, which is disconcerting but another matter altogether).
Anyway, as someone who has (admittedly pretty foolishly) taken basically the same late night walk as Hannah has very recently from a party in the UVA-students part of 14th st through "shady Grady", down Preston Ave, and through the downtown mall to my place near there, it seems to me like Hannah kinda knew where she was going, or at the very least wasn't completely lost unless she was blackout drunk (I was decently inebriated on my recent very similar walk yet still could find my way), or she never went that way before and with amazing luck ended up on the straightest walking route from the end of 14th st (where it turns into Madison ave) to the downtown walking mall. The former is, I think, a slim chance considering how functional she seems on video. The latter is a very slim chance considering a) she's on the ski team, and b) somebody from the UVA ski team posted elsewhere in an online discussion about this & specifically that the ski team sometimes went to McGradys/that general shopping area to get away from the UVA " Corner " and all its hectic undergrad shenanigans - so chances are good that she's been there before.
So, I think she more or less had some idea of where she was, and I'd venture to say that the chance of her not recognizing the downtown mall (which is essentially the chance of her never having been there before) is basically nonexistent. Every first year, unless they're a complete shut-in, has been to the downtown mall, and knows what it is, what it looks like, etc. There's nothing else like it in Charlottesville, it's iconic, and the layout is so simple.
Long story short, considering the time stamp of 1:08 am on the last video she's seen in on the downtown mall, there is NO way she could've been anywhere in the vicinity of 14th and wertland, like her last text at 1:20 said, just 12 minutes later. That would only be possible if she immediately (and I mean by 1:10 or 1:15 at the latest) got into a car that started moving right away and hit all the green lights on its way down main street toward UVA. She was either incredibly out of it (which I don't think she was) when she wrote that text, or she wasn't the author of that text, or maybe the PD is right and her auto-correct messed it up... but that would be a pretty big messup that I also find unlikely.