Deceased/Not Found WA - Sam Dubal, 34, UW professor, Mother Mountain Loop, Mowich Lake TH, Mount Rainier, 9 Oct 2020

[mickey2942]

This is heartbreaking. I grew up in SW WA State and hiked Rainier a lot but never after October, even with gear.

Exactly. It looks like he had recently moved to the area this summer. Maybe he just wasn't used to how fast the weather can change there this time of year. I reviewed what information is available on him online, it looks like he specializes in African Studies, Uganda.

Hiking Mount Rainier ain't the same as hiking in Africa. Of course, I have never been to Africa. But I don't think that the temp there can drop 50 degrees in literally hours.

 

[RickshawFan]

Exactly. It looks like he had recently moved to the area this summer. Maybe he just wasn't used to how fast the weather can change there this time of year. I reviewed what information is available on him online, it looks like he specializes in African Studies, Uganda.

Hiking Mount Rainier ain't the same as hiking in Africa. Of course, I have never been to Africa. But I don't think that the temp there can drop 50 degrees in literally hours.

It sounds like he's been in the Himalayas, though. However, you might get confused thinking the weather is more benign in the US and the risks would be lower.
And if you hit snowfields, and the trail was obliterated, and your GPS didn't work because of cloud cover...
I wonder if he had a warm enough sleeping bag? The ratings on sleeping bags are crazy misleading. They've had to be updated on some brands in the last few years because EU demands a standard, but they're still way off. A 30 degree bag is not going to go as low as 30 degrees, no matter how much insulation you use under you.
He had a tent, but he'd have to be uninjured enough to pitch it.
This case has me very worried... Either he's had a bad accident, or he made a mistake by doing something like going ultra-light.
It's just so odd they couldn't find a trail after the water bottle find.

 

[MoeInVA]

Wow, I just looked at photos of the Mowich Lake Trail posted upthread, and that trail is so exposed. In "weather" that would presumably mean one snowfield after another. Do we know what direction he was hiking in? Clockwise or anti-clockwise?

They believe he was hiking clockwise both based on his plan and on several hiker sightings Friday.
The water bottle was found on spray park trail past cataract valley camp.
https://twitter.com/veenadubal/status/1316205745281458177?s=21

 

[K9Enzo]

The weather changing in the Cascades, especially at higher mountain elevations, is such a big deal. All of a sudden your path is gone and your world looks completely different.

Not having snowshoes and constantly postholing would be utterly exhausting. Then you run the huge risk of water making it's way through your clothes, then getting wet feet. Hypothermia would be dangerous and life threatening very quickly.

IMO

 

[mickey2942]

I would think an experienced hiker would have checked the weather. Although, I have lived in Montana for over 30 years, and got into a sticky weather situation a few years ago, I wasn't prepared for. I checked the weather where I was, where I was going, I did NOT check the weather for the space in between. Rain, rain, okay. In the middle, snow, black ice. I ended up on a mountain in my car, in white out conditions on black ice.

Lesson learned.

 

[10ofRods]

Mt Rainier is notorious for trapping people in rapid weather changes. It looks like a fairly easy area to walk in, and the trail he chose was certainly not exposed or highly dangerous.

But that weather can change so suddenly and there are so many attractive places off trial that can end up being treacherous.

Totally agree about the ratings on sleeping bags. We have bags rated to zero and it was 17° and we were...not warm. If it had really been zero, we would have been shivering. The rating seems to mean "will be better than nothing at X temperature).

Plus, one would really need at least a 3 season tent, preferably 4 season and maybe a rain tarp.

I thought that he was only supposed to be gone for one night, though, and that it was supposed to be clear? Of course, every hiker should check the 10 day forecast, but those can be so off.

Mickey, I did the same thing in northern New Mexico years ago. It was not fun. Slid off the road into a snow bank and probably would have frozen trying to walk for help (12 miles). An amazing Navajo family took their kids to the little town, left them inside the convenience store at the gas station, explained to the owner that they'd seen a lone woman walking on the road (my ex was sitting in the car trying to use the heater and I was worried he'd end up with carbon monoxide poisoning). So they rescued me, and then I was able to get a tow truck. They wouldn't take any thing but thanks from me. They were so kind about it, too. Big old single cab pick-up.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm putting the associated images here, in case we lose the Twitter citation. The images are from a book.

I believe these photos are from one of these books, but I can't be certain: https://www.amazon.com/Hiking-Wonderland-Trail-Complete-Rainiers/dp/1594856540/
https://www.amazon.com/Day-Hiking-Rainier-National-Mountain/dp/168051010X/

 

[RickshawFan]

Totally agree about the ratings on sleeping bags. We have bags rated to zero and it was 17° and we were...not warm. If it had really been zero, we would have been shivering. The rating seems to mean "will be better than nothing at X temperature).
Snipped for focus
Plus, one would really need at least a 3 season tent, preferably 4 season and maybe a rain tarp.

Snipped for focus...
My big fear is that he had enough money and commitment to gear to go "ultralight". IMO this kind of equipment is good in theory, but a disaster if you have an emergency: it's skimpy, inspires confidence because often the items have high ratings simply because they "shave ounces", and the whole ultralight "ethic" incorporates a lot of risk taking or relying on other people if you don't take the necessaries. Ultralighters can get very snooty about what might actually be required to stay safe.
@10ofRods, it sounds like you might know this already, but EU has EN (European Norm) ratings that are much more conservative (maybe by 20 degrees) and reliable than the old ratings which were generally fiction. Sleeping bags that are sold in Europe are required to reach this standard.
Still, as I'm sure you know, how warm something is, depends on the person and whatever else you're wearing, including shoes and socks), whether a coat or a sleeping bag.

 

[RickshawFan]

Mt Rainier is notorious for trapping people in rapid weather changes. It looks like a fairly easy area to walk in, and the trail he chose was certainly not exposed or highly dangerous.

But that weather can change so suddenly and there are so many attractive places off trial that can end up being treacherous.

Snipped for focus.
It does look spectacular. Can you imagine an August hike up there? Wow.
Those river crossings would be scary to me, though, and the potential for losing the trail in snow..... been there done that: I was on a 9 mile loop hike in the Cascades with a group, it was getting dark, got to some snowfields when we were almost out, no trail in sight, and for safety had to go all the way back the way we came.
Come to think of it, I wonder if this missing hiker did that? Got into snow and reversed direction on purpose?

 

[mickey2942]

Lots of good information. I am not a "backpacker". And when we go camping, I want the heaviest, warmest sleeping bag. I make sure that I take easy trails, nothing beyond 2 or 3 hours round trip for me.

Maybe it is better to under estimate your ability than have confidence that you would be okay.

 

[PommyMommy]

Snipped for focus.
It does look spectacular. Can you imagine an August hike up there? Wow.
Those river crossings would be scary to me, though, and the potential for losing the trail in snow..... been there done that: I was on a 9 mile loop hike in the Cascades with a group, it was getting dark, got to some snowfields when we were almost out, no trail in sight, and for safety had to go all the way back the way we came.
Come to think of it, I wonder if this missing hiker did that? Got into snow and reversed direction on purpose?

I have some photos from August a few years back but they were taken on the SW side - Longmire and Paradise. Still lots of snow up there. Gorgeous, gorgeous! MOO

 

[K9Enzo]

We literally check the hourly forecast before committing to a backpacking hike. Especially in mountain regions.

A couple of years ago I stepped off the trail during a winter hike. Long story short, I lost my footing and was engulfed in at least 5-6' of snow. Not wise to not use my trekking pole to check the depth before taking that step. The more I panicked and thrashed around, with my backpack and snowshoes on, the deeper I went. It was terrifying. I was with my husband and he saved me, while fighting with my dog, who thought his mom went into another world out of his reach. lol The training for this type of situation went right out the window when I was actually faced with it. My point, things can happen fast. IMO

 

[RickshawFan]

We literally check the hourly forecast before committing to a backpacking hike. Especially in mountain regions.

A couple of years ago I stepped off the trail during a winter hike. Long story short, I lost my footing and was engulfed in at least 5-6' of snow. Not wise to not use my trekking pole to check the depth before taking that step. The more I panicked and thrashed around, with my backpack and snowshoes on, the deeper I went. It was terrifying. I was with my husband and he saved me, while fighting with my dog, who thought his mom went into another world out of his reach. lol The training for this type of situation went right out the window when I was actually faced with it. My point, things can happen fast. IMO

Oh, my gosh, a tree well? So glad you're safe. I actually would have no idea how to get out of the situation you were in. That would be like falling into a regular well.

 

[RickshawFan]

This (other) accident happened in September in Rainier. We're now a month later into winter.
Things happen so fast. Hiker Dies, Partner Rescued After Getting Caught in Whiteout on Mount Rainier, WA - SnowBrains

 

[K9Enzo]

Oh, my gosh, a tree well? So glad you're safe. I actually would have no idea how to get out of the situation you were in. That would be like falling into a regular well.

I stepped off the trail on my descent but luckily it was not into a tree. That would have been a ER PLB call. I have heard of people falling into a tree well, actually into pine trees. When your coming up or down, in several feet of snow, from that elevation and are at tree top level and step off a snow covered trail right into a tree and just keep going down and down. That actually takes my breath away just thinking about it. IMO

 

[MoeInVA]

Snipped for focus.
It does look spectacular. Can you imagine an August hike up there? Wow.
Those river crossings would be scary to me, though, and the potential for losing the trail in snow..... been there done that: I was on a 9 mile loop hike in the Cascades with a group, it was getting dark, got to some snowfields when we were almost out, no trail in sight, and for safety had to go all the way back the way we came.
Come to think of it, I wonder if this missing hiker did that? Got into snow and reversed direction on purpose?

It certainly seems possible and if he did he may have found the bridge in rough condition or the river crossing washed out. NPS said it washed out Saturday.

Also the map from his book/itinerary was out of date. The portion of trail that avoids the river crossing is apparently no longer maintained which he may have known or learned on Friday (or not).

Very sad and scary situation.

 

[RickshawFan]

Do y'all have a PLB recommendation? This case is making me nervous.
Do they work with extensive cloud cover? Tree cover? Ridge side walls? It's a satellite connection, correct?

 

[RickshawFan]

It certainly seems possible and if he did he may have found the bridge in rough condition or the river crossing washed out. NPS said it washed out Saturday.

Also the map from his book/itinerary was out of date. The portion of trail that avoids the river crossing is apparently no longer maintained which he may have known or learned on Friday (or not).

Very sad and scary situation.

For clarity, I'm not sure exactly what guide book/map SD used. The screen-shot pages came from his sister, with no citation.

 

[Cryptic]

Mickey, I did the same thing in northern New Mexico years ago.

An amazing Navajo family took their kids to the little town, left them inside the convenience store at the gas station, explained to the owner that they'd seen a lone woman walking on the road So they rescued me, and then I was able to get a tow truck. They wouldn't take any thing but thanks from me.

I had a similar learning experience in Texas involving an encounter with a deliberately turned trail sign after one of our party turned back and was given our only trail map.

We hiked out to a road. Fortunately, we were not in any real danger other than damaged pride, but we were facing a long walk back to a no stop light town after a long hike. A rancher stopped and gave us a ride to the town refused to accept anything and bought us all cokes (hot day).

Now, I always get the USGS topographic map of a wilderness area that I am hiking. Great supplement to trail maps and also make good momentos.

 

[K9Enzo]

Do y'all have a PLB recommendation? This case is making me nervous.
Do they work with extensive cloud cover? Tree cover? Ridge side walls? It's a satellite connection, correct?

I have the Garmin inReach -yes, satellite - two way communication/ does require a monthly subscription that can be turned off/on. LE/SAR would also have access to what I put in my profile about myself, who is in my party, if my dog is with me, any medical info, etc. Each “text” will give my gps coordinates.

We often hike where cell phone reception is spotty or nonexistent. It’s a must for us.
They have really good customer service and will answer any questions. IMO

I also don’t want to derail the thread and apologize if this is off topic.

Garmin inReach Aids in 5,000th Rescue Thanks to Two-Way Communication and SOS Functionality

Others I have heard of-

SPOT Satellite Communication Devices | Saved by SPOT

ResQLink™ Personal Locator Beacon (PLB) | ACR ARTEX