WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #5

[slowpoke]

Right, thanks for this - and what bothers me is, where is the proof that Shantina and Azriel were sleeping in the van, and simply surprised and swept away by high tide? Do we really know this?

My understanding of the investigators' reasoning for that theory:

The dogs were unable to pick up any scent trail of either of them away from the van, so they surmise that the two went from the car into the water.

At the probable time that the van drove up to the beach and got stuck, it was low tide. If they had walked off then, I guess they should have been able to due to the low tide.

If they had waited (because they slept in the car), and awoke to the higher tide, they'd have to walk into water in order to try to escape the van.

So, probably no proof. Just a best guess, is my thought.

 

[SMK]

My understanding of the investigators' reasoning for that theory:

The dogs were unable to pick up any scent trail of either of them away from the van, so they surmise that the two went from the car into the water.

At the probable time that the van drove up to the beach and got stuck, it was low tide. If they had walked off then, I guess they should have been able to due to the low tide.

If they had waited (because they slept in the car), and awoke to the higher tide, they'd have to walk into water in order to try to escape the van.

So, probably no proof. Just a best guess, is my thought.

Yes, thanks for this, and I do see the logic and the reasoning behind it. The only problems I have (and maybe I am too picky or stupid, who knows?) :
1. Wouldn't high tide have washed away their scent on the beach, had the two of them indeed been out of the car?

2. Why is it that BEFORE Azriel was found, the media thought it was perfectly reasonable to run abduction stories. But not after? Even though mother was still missing? Why does the abduction idea vanish at this point? Couldn't SS be abducted, and Az drowned alone, or was left off miles from the van (16)? Or is the confusion mine, and mine alone?

Being that it was down a dead-end road, and then going down a dirt road
around a bluff to the water makes no sense," said Simmons, "she would
not go down that road, it's a dead-end."

Simmons says they don't have any friends in that area, and worries
something sinister may have happened.

"I'm scared that something bad happened," said Simmons, " and I just
want to say to whoever has them, send them home please, just drop them
off somewhere, let them be found, let them come home, let them be safe."
http://justice4caylee.forumotion.net/unresolved-cases-f32/azriel-carver-8-yo-and-his-mother-shantina-smiley-thurston-county-olympia-wa-t5461.htm

 

[elf69]

Someone posted this link, which I can't find now, to quote the actual post...

IMPO this is RS & the person he's referencing is TW

I thought the same exact thing!!:dance:

 

[elf69]

Who is the woman. telling (posted message) a person named Candy, that she must tell what she knows? She urges Candy to tell the truth because there's been so much pain, already. And, who is Candy? Is she a friend or relative of SS's?:waitasec::waitasec:

This was posted six days after AS was found, on shore.

If someone else answered, I apologize. I am going through posts since last night. She is the wife of the step-father that SS was supposedly visiting that evening in Castle Rock.

 

[elf69]

Yes, thanks for this, and I do see the logic and the reasoning behind it. The only problems I have (and maybe I am too picky or stupid, who knows?) :
1. Wouldn't high tide have washed away their scent on the beach, had the two of them indeed been out of the car?

2. Why is it that BEFORE Azriel was found, the media thought it was perfectly reasonable to run abduction stories. But not after? Even though mother was still missing? Why does the abduction idea vanish at this point? Couldn't SS be abducted, and Az drowned alone, or was left off miles from the van (16)? Or is the confusion mine, and mine alone?

Being that it was down a dead-end road, and then going down a dirt road
around a bluff to the water makes no sense," said Simmons, "she would
not go down that road, it's a dead-end."

Simmons says they don't have any friends in that area, and worries
something sinister may have happened.

"I'm scared that something bad happened," said Simmons, " and I just
want to say to whoever has them, send them home please, just drop them
off somewhere, let them be found, let them come home, let them be safe."
http://justice4caylee.forumotion.net/unresolved-cases-f32/azriel-carver-8-yo-and-his-mother-shantina-smiley-thurston-county-olympia-wa-t5461.htm

Bold by me -- SS did have friends in Olympia at least on her MS. So why would he say they didn't have friends? IMO another inconsistency on his part. (not accusing him)

 

[Momma3Boys]

Someone posted this link, which I can't find now, to quote the actual post...

IMPO this is RS & the person he's referencing is TW

Yeah I posted it waaay back on page 8 or so. (apologies if someone posted before me, not trying to steal anyone's credit)

Def. seems like it's RS. And that he's talking about TW. But why did she give the kudos? Was SS relationship with TW strained? (I'm not aware)

 

[SMK]

Bold by me -- SS did have friends in Olympia at least on her MS. So why would he say they didn't have friends? IMO another inconsistency on his part. (not accusing him)

Yes, thanks for that, it is very odd....

 

[cjoosten]

OK, so here's where I am with all of this.

Whatever happened to the baggage in the trunk? Was there any? If she never even packed any bags, that would suggest she never intended to go to Castle Rock in the first place.

The knock on the garage door (Grimmer’s house): This still confuses me. My thoughts are that she ended up in the water and got stuck, so she decided to drink some more, then sleep it off (and Azriel was already asleep). Azriel wakes up later and see's the water is pretty high, tries to unsuccessfully wake up Shantina, panics, then tries to escape and gets taken away by the current. Shantina wakes up later, notices he is gone and goes looking for him. Frustrated, she pounds on the garage (kind of like how O.J pounded on his air conditioner after arriving back home). If I remember, OJ's pounding count was also 4 times...as in DAMN, DAMN, DAMN, DAMN!!!.

Any insights would be great. Also, what is LE?

 

[SMK]

OK, so here's where I am with all of this.

Whatever happened to the baggage in the trunk? Was there any? If she never even packed any bags, that would suggest she never intended to go to Castle Rock in the first place.

The knock on the garage door (Grimmer’s house): This still confuses me. My thoughts are that she ended up in the water and got stuck, so she decided to drink some more, then sleep it off (and Azriel was already asleep). Azriel wakes up later and see's the water is pretty high, tries to unsuccessfully wake up Shantina, panics, then tries to escape and gets taken away by the current. Shantina wakes up later, notices he is gone and goes looking for him. Frustrated, she pounds on the garage (kind of like how O.J pounded on his air conditioner after arriving back home). If I remember, OJ's pounding count was also 4 times...as in DAMN, DAMN, DAMN, DAMN!!!.

Any insights would be great. Also, what is LE?

LE = Law Enforcement (took me a while before that dawned too, tee hee). Yes, it is baffling, why there would be no overnight bags. The knock on the door at midnight / 1 am is also baffling. Yes, it can bring to mind what you say. But it also is eerie, in that if there was that much trouble, to cause the pounding in the first place, why not stick around? Was it Azriel himself, who got frightened off by the activation of the alarm system? And then what....?:waitasec:

 

[cjoosten]

Yep, many many questions. But I definitely think she is dead.....there's no way she would be able to hide out this long....unless someone is hiding her. And that is only if she knew someone in the area (that she happened to meet recently on FB,or that 'yearbook' site people were talking about earlier). But LE would figure that out, I suppose. She'd be up for manslaughter most likely, so I understand if someone is hiding her. My guess is that someone will find her body with the upcoming boat event (forgot what it is called) unless she got washed out to the ocean....however improbable that is. (BTW, I used "LE" in a sentence!)

 

[SMK]

Yep, many many questions. But I definitely think she is dead.....there's no way she would be able to hide out this long....unless someone is hiding her. And that is only if she knew someone in the area (that she happened to meet recently on FB,or that 'yearbook' site people were talking about earlier). But LE would figure that out, I suppose. She'd be up for manslaughter most likely, so I understand if someone is hiding her. My guess is that someone will find her body with the upcoming boat event (forgot what it is called) unless she got washed out to the ocean....however improbable that is. (BTW, I used "LE" in a sentence!)

Congrats for your fine use of "LE". (ha!) I too, believe, sadly, that SS is no longer among the living. Yet I am not so sure her story is as simple as only an accident. Time will tell. Yes, boating season on the Sound will open, and that may bring a revelation...

 

[Momma3Boys]

LE = Law Enforcement (took me a while before that dawned too, tee hee). Yes, it is baffling, why there would be no overnight bags.

(SNIP)

Speaking of bags.. I doubt we'd know, but I wonder if RS had an overnight bag with him on his bike..? Does anyone know what kind of bike it was/one that could hold his baggage? Was SS supposed to take it for him?

 

[SMK]

(SNIP)

Speaking of bags.. I doubt we'd know, but I wonder if RS had an overnight bag with him on his bike..? Does anyone know what kind of bike it was/one that could hold his baggage? Was SS supposed to take it for him?

That is a good question.....wonder how anyone could determine this.....:waitasec:

 

[Momma3Boys]

Actually just found this cache of his bike purchase. Figured he'd blog about it.

I don't know anything about bikes, but it doesnt look big enough to me..

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache...b+Simmons+motorcycle&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

 

[powayparent]

Actually just found this cache of his bike purchase. Figured he'd blog about it.

I don't know anything about bikes, but it doesnt look big enough to me..

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache...b+Simmons+motorcycle&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

That seems to be the bag they used for their weekend trip with the pizza and winery so he could have had his things in that bag. She may have worn a backpack but it appears that at least in that case they traveled very light.

 

[Calliope]

I don't think he brought a bag or backpack with extra clothes, etc.

Because in an interview he said he'd been down there still wearing the same clothes and some people (from his scouts?) brought him a change of clothes and other stuff. I believe it was the GMA interview.

Odd that he'd take off to an unknown destination for the weekend without a change of clothes.

 

[marcyjoy]

I don't think he brought a bag or backpack with extra clothes, etc.

Because in an interview he said he'd been down there still wearing the same clothes and some people (from his scouts?) brought him a change of clothes and other stuff. I believe it was the GMA interview.

Odd that he'd take off to an unknown destination for the weekend without a change of clothes.

I don't think this is that odd. Hubby and I have a motorcycle and if it's a quick trip, sometimes he'll just bring a change of undies and a different shirt. Sometimes less if he isn't planning anything but ride down, visit, sleep and ride back. Maybe the clothes were because he knew he'd be down longer and meeting with people (LE, media, family) that he hadn't expected.

 

[Momma3Boys]

I don't think he brought a bag or backpack with extra clothes, etc.

Because in an interview he said he'd been down there still wearing the same clothes and some people (from his scouts?) brought him a change of clothes and other stuff. I believe it was the GMA interview.

Odd that he'd take off to an unknown destination for the weekend without a change of clothes.

Not that I'm in anyway saying he's responsible for any of this. But I do wonder if he was supposed to come..

We don't know that their conversations were actually about cell phones/chargers and addresses etc.

Maybe they were having a disagreement and she was going to her stepfathers alone(with Az) and RS decided to come along anyways, without her blessing. And in a hurry got out of scouts, and didn't even bother with packing clothes.

She noticed him, and that's what caused her to freak out/buy the wine, etc, as some seem to think. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

The charger never showed up, even though shoes, baseballs and wine bottles appeared.

 

[Calliope]

I don't think this is that odd. Hubby and I have a motorcycle and if it's a quick trip, sometimes he'll just bring a change of undies and a different shirt. Sometimes less if he isn't planning anything but ride down, visit, sleep and ride back. Maybe the clothes were because he knew he'd be down longer and meeting with people (LE, media, family) that he hadn't expected.

They were brought down on Monday. If he were spending the weekend and brought his own things down, that wouldn't have been necessary.

 

[SMK]

Well, it is at least odd that she and the child had no overnight bag. No pajamas, no shampoo, no change of clothes, on an overnight trip?