WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #7

[Jules71]

When reviewing the events that evening, and trying to determine how she ended up down that road to the beach off Zangle - what are the possibilities?

1. She followed someone there
2. She was evading someone and in trying to get away she ended up there
3. She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)
4. She was so totally disoriented (due to stress, alcohol, brain event, etc.) that she turned the wrong way on Boston Harbor Rd NE from the Williams house (just 0.2 miles back).

Which is most likely - why? Which is least likely - why?

 

[SMK]

When reviewing the events that evening, and trying to determine how she ended up down that road to the beach off Zangle - what are the possibilities?

1. She followed someone there
2. She was evading someone and in trying to get away she ended up there
3. She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)
4. She was so totally disoriented (due to stress, alcohol, brain event, etc.) that she turned the wrong way on Boston Harbor Rd NE from the Williams house (just 0.2 miles back).

Which is most likely - why? Which is least likely - why?

Or, it may be a combination of 1 and 2: She was taking a rest there, gathering her thoughts, and someone ( perhaps a person she had spoken to earlier, asked help from ) caught up with her there. At first seemed friendly, but then seemed intrusive, and she thought "let's get out of here". Maybe some guy who said, "Let me go get a map, I will be right back" and she decided she did not want them to come back? Just rambling thoughts, maybe they do not make much sense......

 

[SMK]

Addemdum:I think the reason I thought the above, is because when I was young like Shantina, and lost or something, it seemed some guy would always appear to help, and then wind up creeping me out, and I would have to "lose" him (once happened when I was 23, and visiting relatives out in Ohio. Got lost, and some trucker offered help, and I got a bad feeling, and had to "lose" him. Just an idea)

 

[Jules71]

Or, it may be a combination of 1 and 2: She was taking a rest there, gathering her thoughts, and someone ( perhaps a person she had spoken to earlier, asked help from ) caught up with her there. At first seemed friendly, but then seemed intrusive, and she thought "let's get out of here". Maybe some guy who said, "Let me go get a map, I will be right back" and she decided she did not want them to come back? Just rambling thoughts, maybe they do not make much sense......

I can see that as a definite possibility.

In my opinion, I would cross #4 off the list because she literally would have had to:
1. Back out of the Williams' driveway
2. Go 0.2 miles in the direction she just came from (which she did)
3. Turn LEFT and follow to freeway (she turned right instead)

I don't think she really could have gotten that wrong. She was just there - she just asked for directions - she turned right instead of left within probably 30 seconds of leaving their home. Google maps says it would take 2 minutes to walk to that intersection from the Williams home.

 

[SMK]

I can see that as a definite possibility.

In my opinion, I would cross #4 off the list because she literally would have had to:
1. Back out of the Williams' driveway
2. Go 0.2 miles in the direction she just came from (which she did)
3. Turn LEFT and follow to freeway (she turned right instead)

I don't think she really could have gotten that wrong. She was just there - she just asked for directions - she turned right instead of left within probably 30 seconds of leaving their home. Google maps says it would take 2 minutes to walk to that intersection from the Williams home.

I agree, that #4 is really unlikely. And I think when a young, pretty, vulnerable female is involved - even with a young child in tow - the idea of a male wanting to take advantage can never be ruled out. Maybe she was followed, did not know it, and the person came up to them on the beach "Hey, you still lost?". As I said, I recall from my own youth, how unsettling it was to realize some guy was seeing a chance to "score". Maybe there was someone she went to before or after the Williams, and that person just never spoke up. Her own family had said, "She was just too open and trusting". Other than that, someone she was planning to meet? But why would it go so wrong? For what reason? This is the most puzzling case I have ever encountered.....

 

[Jules71]

When reviewing the events that evening, and trying to determine how she ended up down that road to the beach off Zangle - what are the possibilities?

1. She followed someone there
2. She was evading someone and in trying to get away she ended up there
3. She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)
4. She was so totally disoriented (due to stress, alcohol, brain event, etc.) that she turned the wrong way on Boston Harbor Rd NE from the Williams house (just 0.2 miles back).

Which is most likely - why? Which is least likely - why?

Exploring option #3 (She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)

Why would they plan to meet down a private road to the beach, off of Zangle, and then further east down the beach?

If this is the case, this indicates to me she would be meeting this person either on foot, by boat, or at a house near there.

If meeting someone from a house near there, why not meet at the house?

If meeting a person there on foot, where would the person come from? Where would they park their car? And why not meet where they parked their car?

It seems the most logical of these 3 possibilities (IMO) would be meeting someone in a boat.

 

[Jules71]

I agree, that #4 is really unlikely. And I think when a young, pretty, vulnerable female is involved - even with a young child in tow - the idea of a male wanting to take advantage can never be ruled out. Maybe she was followed, did not know it, and the person came up to them on the beach "Hey, you still lost?". As I said, I recall from my own youth, how unsettling it was to realize some guy was seeing a chance to "score". Maybe there was someone she went to before or after the Williams, and that person just never spoke up. Her own family had said, "She was just too open and trusting". Other than that, someone she was planning to meet? But why would it go so wrong? For what reason? This is the most puzzling case I have ever encountered.....

She may have been followed and didn't know it. But it seems like in order for that to be possible, #4 would have to have happened and we don't think it did.

 

[Jules71]

Or, it may be a combination of 1 and 2: She was taking a rest there, gathering her thoughts, and someone ( perhaps a person she had spoken to earlier, asked help from ) caught up with her there. At first seemed friendly, but then seemed intrusive, and she thought "let's get out of here". Maybe some guy who said, "Let me go get a map, I will be right back" and she decided she did not want them to come back? Just rambling thoughts, maybe they do not make much sense......

Thinking about this some more.....

If she went there on her own accord, to rest or whatever, (not following someone and not yet evading someone) she would have had to do #4 - which I think is hard to imagine.

 

[SMK]

Thinking about this some more.....

If she went there on her own accord, to rest or whatever, (not following someone and not yet evading someone) she would have had to do #4 - which I think is hard to imagine.

Well, as there is some unaccounted for time, and we do not really know who else she may have spoken to (someone in town, some workman, out in a yard, on a ladder, who knows?--someone who never came forward and mentioned it to LE) could someone have suggested she go there and wait for them, for some reason? Or tricked her into going down there? I admit, my mind is a bit hazy...Maybe you can think more clearly than I...:waitasec:

 

[Jules71]

When reviewing the events that evening, and trying to determine how she ended up down that road to the beach off Zangle - what are the possibilities?

1. She followed someone there
2. She was evading someone and in trying to get away she ended up there
3. She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)
4. She was so totally disoriented (due to stress, alcohol, brain event, etc.) that she turned the wrong way on Boston Harbor Rd NE from the Williams house (just 0.2 miles back).

Which is most likely - why? Which is least likely - why?

Exploring scenario #1 (following someone)

It doesn't make sense she would be following someone right after leaving the Williams home. Where were they when she stopped there? How did they suddenly appear when she left there?

Unless they were waiting for her while she went in just to make a phone call and then she continued following them when she left. Maybe they waited for her at the Gull Harbor mercantile. Was it confirmed she went there again after the Williams house. I have heard both.

-or-

She followed someone from the Williams house who led her the wrong way.

So I guess I would not rule out #1 just yet. I think it is plausible. MOO

 

[SMK]

Exploring scenario #1 (following someone)

It doesn't make sense she would be following someone right after leaving the Williams home. Where were they when she stopped there? How did they suddenly appear when she left there?

Unless they were waiting for her while she went in just to make a phone call and then she continued following them when she left. Maybe they waited for her at the Gull Harbor mercantile. Was it confirmed she went there again after the Williams house. I have heard both.

-or-

She followed someone from the Williams house who led her the wrong way.

So I guess I would not rule out #1 just yet. I think it is plausible. MOO

I will have to look for the link, but I think it may have been confirmed that she went to the GHM after the Williams (but possibly not). In any case, I think you are correct, you cannot really rule out #1. #2 is very possible as well.

 

[SMK]

http://projectjason.org/forums/index.php?topic=8400.0

Smiley and her son were last seen by residents of a home on 46th Avenue about 10 p.m. Saturday. Smiley knocked on the door and entered the home to use the phone to call her grandfather, also in Castle Rock, because she was lost, said Thurston County Sheriff’s Lt. Chris Mealy.

Mealy said the residents of the home told investigators they saw Smiley drive up to and leave the residence in the minivan that was found the next morning.

“They gave her directions to get back to the freeway and the next thing you know, she ends up here,” Mealy said.

To get to the spot where the van was located, Smiley would have had to drive down a steep dirt road adjacent to a private residence where Zangle Road dead ends. Investigators found Smiley’s wallet in the minivan, but her purse was missing.

“The theory that she would drive down here and ditch the van, it’s thin, it’s flimsy,” Simmons said.

Smiley apparently left Silverdale on Saturday without her cell phone, Mealy said. Investigators have been able to trace some of Smiley’s activities in the Olympia area on Saturday night.

A timeline of Smiley’s movements Saturday is as follows:

• Investigators believe Smiley left Silverdale with her son around 5 p.m.

• About 6:45 p.m., she called her fiancé and asked him to bring her cell phone. But at that point, Simmons said, he was already en route to meet her in Castle Rock. Simmons had been at Cub Scout training that ended at 6:45 p.m., according to a Web site he has set up to help find Smiley and her son.

• Smiley stopped at the Handy Pantry on Division Street in west Olympia and made a purchase there around 7:50 p.m.

• Around 9 p.m. Smiley and her son went to the Martin Way Diner. Mealy said a witness said Smiley purchased a corn dog, but did not take it with her after paying for it.

• About 9:54 p.m., a store surveillance camera shows that Smiley stopped her car at the Gull Harbor Mercantile on Boston Harbor Road, but it was closed.

Mealy said there is some indication that Smiley might have fallen and hurt her knee at the Martin Way Diner. Her son apparently told one of the residents of the home on 46th Avenue that his mother had hurt her knee. Thurston County Chief Criminal Deputy James Chamberlain said Monday that the residents of the home on 46th Avenue have told investigators that Smiley seemed out of sorts, but no more than would be normal for someone who was lost on an unfamiliar road.

So according to this, she may have been at the Williams AFTER the GHM? It is possible? The Williams said "around 10 pm" (give or take) and the GHM clocked her before 10, so there goes the idea that she was seen after the Williams. In any case, can't they determine the exact time of call to Grandparents? It must have been after GHM, this is why she went to the Williams, no pay phones....

 

[slowpoke]

Or, another possibility as to how SS ended up at that beach---I believe I read it here---a poster suggested that maybe SS knew of the beach spot because she had gone there earlier that day.

(Although, if it is correct that she couldn't follow directions that people gave her, and seemingly had such a bad sense of direction, it makes you wonder how she would have been able to find the beach again.)

But why would she be wanting to go to that beach? As you said, to evade someone seems possible. But who. The police? Could it just be that she was wanting to find a hidden place so the police wouldn't stop to check on her? If she had been drinking some, she wouldn't want the police finding out, especially since her DUI incident.

Or does this scenario seem unlikely?...hm...:waitasec:

 

[BeanE]

I wouldn't take 4 off the list, because it is the only option where we have any evidence, albeit anecdotal (report that she bought the wine, report she had a recent relapse, report she fell down, report she claimed to be lost, etc.), of.

None of the others have supporting anecdotal evidence (reports of her planning to meet anyone, reports of anyone following her, etc.) that I can recall, do we?

I definitely wouldn't take the one with anecdotal evidence completely off the list.

 

[SMK]

Or, another possibility as to how SS ended up at that beach---I believe I read it here---a poster suggested that maybe SS knew of the beach spot because she had gone there earlier that day.

(Although, if it is correct that she couldn't follow directions that people gave her, and seemingly had such a bad sense of direction, it makes you wonder how she would have been able to find the beach again.)

But why would she be wanting to go to that beach? As you said, to evade someone seems possible. But who. The police? Could it just be that she was wanting to find a hidden place so the police wouldn't stop to check on her? If she had been drinking some, she wouldn't want the police finding out, especially since her DUI incident.

Or does this scenario seem unlikely?...hm...:waitasec:

I guess it is all likely, that is what is so frustrating, it is all possible....It just seems extreme that she and the child would both wind up dead. That is an extreme ending....But I had been told repeatedly she was seen at GHM after the Williams, but now I see it was before. She went to the Williams as she found no phone at GHM....

 

[BeanE]

So according to this, she may have been at the Williams AFTER the GHM? It is possible? The Williams said "around 10 pm" (give or take) and the GHM clocked her before 10, so there goes the idea that she was seen after the Williams. In any case, can't they determine the exact time of call to Grandparents? It must have been after GHM, this is why she went to the Williams, no pay phones....

I've got it stuck in my head that the call from the Williams was at 10:10. I can look it up if that's not ringing a bell for anyone else.

 

[SMK]

I wouldn't take 4 off the list, because it is the only option where we have any evidence, albeit anecdotal (report that she bought the wine, report she had a recent relapse, report she fell down, report she claimed to be lost, etc.), of.

None of the others have supporting anecdotal evidence (reports of her planning to meet anyone, reports of anyone following her, etc.) that I can recall, do we?

I definitely wouldn't take the one with anecdotal evidence completely off the list.

True. And #4 could in fact be possible if she felt she wanted to rest a bit, but not have people come out and ask what she was doing, just parked. (Maybe felt the Williams or someone might look out and see her just sitting, and felt silly). If her headlights caught that steep trail road, she may have thought, "Let me just pull down here and rest a bit." Maybe she thought it was just a little side road, did not realize it would go down, steep, to beach....It is possible....

 

[SMK]

I've got it stuck in my head that the call from the Williams was at 10:10. I can look it up if that's not ringing a bell for anyone else.

Thanks!! I think you are correct, I think 10:10 was the call to Grandparents. So I suppose at 9:54, she looked for the payphone, did not find at GHM, and went back to residential area...thanks

 

['Ailina]

Hello, sleuthers. I've been on hiatus from WS for a while but found my way back in following up on Haleigh Cumming's case.

slowpoke wrote:

But why would she be wanting to go to that beach? As you said, to evade someone seems possible. But who. The police? Could it just be that she was wanting to find a hidden place so the police wouldn't stop to check on her? If she had been drinking some, she wouldn't want the police finding out, especially since her DUI incident.

Or does this scenario seem unlikely?...hm...

Personally, I think this scenario is highly likely. I've done similar things before, traveling with my children -- though not because of alcohol, but because I was falling asleep on the road.

In my circumstances, I've chosen to park in well-lit/populated areas, but if alcohol was involved with Smiley, I can certainly see her choosing a remote, hard-to-find area, not only to evade detection from police or other curious people, but also for some misguided sense of safety (for instance, "If we're hidden enough, then maybe we'll be safe from predators").

Also, if she was "borrowing" the van from her fiancee, she may not have been familiar with what kind of terrain the vehicle could handle. The ending location was down a steep incline. Maybe she either wasn't able to tell how steep the incline was, or she thought the van could handle it just fine. I'd be curious to know what she was accustomed to driving.

As far as her wallet being left behind...it is a hard habit of mine when driving my van to take my wallet out of my purse and leave it out. I don't like carrying my purse inside with me when I'm just going to run in and out. (And from viewing the video footage, it appears Smiley didn't like to either. She didn't seem to have her purse with her in the convenience store.) I pull my wallet out when I go to ATMs and when I go through drive-thrus. When I'm in the van, I probably have my wallet out of my purse more than it's in my purse. No matter what eventually happened to the contents of the van, I think it makes perfect sense her wallet might be free from her purse.

 

[slowpoke]

SMK, she was seen on the GHM surveillance cameras twice, before and after going to the DW house.

According to the article I've linked, at 9:55pm she seen peering into the windows of the store. Then, after the visit to the house, "instead of taking the couple's directions, Mealy went in the opposite direction, again being recorded on the surveillance camera of the closed market."

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/TheLaw/sh...idence-washes-ashore/story?id=10134521&page=3