WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #7

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
Most vehicles can be towed by the front or rear because either end can be damaged in a collision. If they were able to move the car up and back to change direction and all that they could have just driven it out too!!

But I don't believe they would want anyone in the vehicle itself before forensic examination.
---
BBM -I am not sure about this. I have always been taught that front-wheel drive vehicles should be towed from the front to reduce strain on the drive train.

IMO, if this van is front-wheel drive it would have been towed from the front. If the van was found backed into the water, the tow truck would have had to swing around and then back up to the front of the van.

shantina.jpg
 
When reviewing the events that evening, and trying to determine how she ended up down that road to the beach off Zangle - what are the possibilities?

1. She followed someone there
2. She was evading someone and in trying to get away she ended up there
3. She was meeting someone 'there' and finally found the place (remember she did not have her phone, so if she planned to meet someone and was planning on getting turn by turn directions on the phone with the person, she couldn't. It may have taken her all this time to find the place they planned to meet)
4. She was so totally disoriented (due to stress, alcohol, brain event, etc.) that she turned the wrong way on Boston Harbor Rd NE from the Williams house (just 0.2 miles back).

Which is most likely - why? Which is least likely - why?

Imo, the least likely is #2 if lights were seen by someone at around 11pm, that is 25 minutes after she was seen at GHM, but the beach is only 5 miles away, iirc. so she would have been having to go very slowly for it to take that amount of time to go 5 miles. So if evading means she thinks she's being chased, or even followed, she would have gone toward people, not away from them.

Also least likely is #4, b/c the path was too narrow, and hard to see even in the daytime, and that night was the darkest of nights, and at 10:10, until perhaps 10:30, imo, she was at the Williams' house, and they said she was nervous, maybe scared b/c she was lost, but otherwise ok. So they didn't seem to think she was drunk, or was having a "brain event" of any kind. They did understand she was lost, but not lost as in disoriented, rather "lost" because she couldn't find the freeway.

which leaves 1 or 3, if these are the only options.

The way #3 is posed makes it unlikely. If she needed her phone to get there to meet someone, not Robb, she probably wouldn't have taken her own cell to begin with, so she likely would have left it behind on purpose. She would have gotten another phone before the meeting and it would only seem to Robb that she was without a phone.
She would not imo have planned on getting directions to the place they planned to meet and then forgot the phone before she left.
Is it possible she had another phone with her though, and was simply stalling for time, and leaving a scenario of staged events?

Why she would do that I can't imagine. She was/is a grown woman with the right to run off with someone if she wanted/s to. Remember the song about fifty ways to leave your lover? I don't think the bbm just above is one of them. Did she wanted everyone to think she was dead? If so, why?

Along with #3 and going to #1, she could have planned to meet someone near the beach, like GHM, but of course not there b/c of the cameras, and then followed them to the beach.

The scenes appear staged, especially when you get to the items on the beach near the steps, unless they weren't near the steps, but rather scattered along the beach. However, one article states LE thought because of how the items were found, they were placed there, not washed up, so the items are staged if the information is correct, which imo, makes everything else staged as well, the van, and every stop she made that caused everyone to think she was lost.

However, in order to conclude that the items, the van, and the videos, including the bought alcohol, are all staged, one must also conclude if 3 is to be likely, that SS conspired with someone to give the appearance that something happened (she got lost, then drowned) when something else happened, 3.

The wrench in #3 is that Az is deceased. LE says his demise was an accident. Since I don't entertain that SS harmed her child, if SS was alive right now, she would have called her ggp, and she would have as soon as she could have gotten to a phone, if she didn't have one with her. She would have stopped going with someone, so if she went to meet someone, after Azriel drowned, if not before, she was taken against her will. jmo

The most likely is #1 and that someone had knowledge of that beach access road. moo. Did she have prior knowledge of that beach access road?

But I guess the story to be believed is that she got lost, bought some wine, caught a buzz, not enough to appear drunk, attempted to feed her son, then left, happened upon a house who fed him, then just happened to find that narrow path, got stuck on the beach, abandoned the van after getting her overnight bag out of the back, leaving the doors open, stumbled down, or up, the beach until coming to the steps, where she emptied her bag, but took the empty bag with her started up the steps, banged on the house, or Az did, returned to the beach, and drowned in the water.

I must admit, I'm having trouble believing that story. moo
 
A question.

If SS had a throw away cellphone, or one in another person's name that is unknown, is it possible for LE to find that information, or would it be too difficult without knowing the cellphone number?

If LE really wanted to know, could they get records of cell phone towers from Silverdale, to Olympia, and see if the same cellphone number bounced off them in the timeframe of SS activities during that evening? Would that be too big a task, too much info to sift through?

I mean of course manually it would be too difficult, but can they transfer all the info into a computer program, and let it spit out the results, or is this too stupid a question to answer, and i just watch too much tv?
 
Imo, the least likely is #2 if lights were seen by someone at around 11pm, that is 25 minutes after she was seen at GHM, but the beach is only 5 miles away, iirc. so she would have been having to go very slowly for it to take that amount of time to go 5 miles. So if evading means she thinks she's being chased, or even followed, she would have gone toward people, not away from them.

Also least likely is #4, b/c the path was too narrow, and hard to see even in the daytime, and that night was the darkest of nights, and at 10:10, until perhaps 10:30, imo, she was at the Williams' house, and they said she was nervous, maybe scared b/c she was lost, but otherwise ok. So they didn't seem to think she was drunk, or was having a "brain event" of any kind. They did understand she was lost, but not lost as in disoriented, rather "lost" because she couldn't find the freeway.

which leaves 1 or 3, if these are the only options.

The way #3 is posed makes it unlikely. If she needed her phone to get there to meet someone, not Robb, she probably wouldn't have taken her own cell to begin with, so she likely would have left it behind on purpose. She would have gotten another phone before the meeting and it would only seem to Robb that she was without a phone.
She would not imo have planned on getting directions to the place they planned to meet and then forgot the phone before she left.
Is it possible she had another phone with her though, and was simply stalling for time, and leaving a scenario of staged events?

Why she would do that I can't imagine. She was/is a grown woman with the right to run off with someone if she wanted/s to. Remember the song about fifty ways to leave your lover? I don't think the bbm just above is one of them. Did she wanted everyone to think she was dead? If so, why?

Along with #3 and going to #1, she could have planned to meet someone near the beach, like GHM, but of course not there b/c of the cameras, and then followed them to the beach.

The scenes appear staged, especially when you get to the items on the beach near the steps, unless they weren't near the steps, but rather scattered along the beach. However, one article states LE thought because of how the items were found, they were placed there, not washed up, so the items are staged if the information is correct, which imo, makes everything else staged as well, the van, and every stop she made that caused everyone to think she was lost.

However, in order to conclude that the items, the van, and the videos, including the bought alcohol, are all staged, one must also conclude if 3 is to be likely, that SS conspired with someone to give the appearance that something happened (she got lost, then drowned) when something else happened, 3.

The wrench in #3 is that Az is deceased. LE says his demise was an accident. Since I don't entertain that SS harmed her child, if SS was alive right now, she would have called her ggp, and she would have as soon as she could have gotten to a phone, if she didn't have one with her. She would have stopped going with someone, so if she went to meet someone, after Azriel drowned, if not before, she was taken against her will. jmo

The most likely is #1 and that someone had knowledge of that beach access road. moo. Did she have prior knowledge of that beach access road?

But I guess the story to be believed is that she got lost, bought some wine, caught a buzz, not enough to appear drunk, attempted to feed her son, then left, happened upon a house who fed him, then just happened to find that narrow path, got stuck on the beach, abandoned the van after getting her overnight bag out of the back, leaving the doors open, stumbled down, or up, the beach until coming to the steps, where she emptied her bag, but took the empty bag with her started up the steps, banged on the house, or Az did, returned to the beach, and drowned in the water.

I must admit, I'm having trouble believing that story. moo

I do think that Azriel being deceased rules out her pre-planning anything. If he had not surfaced, then it would seem likely she had some plan to run away, and that they were off somewhere. But as Chief Deputy Chamberlain believes the items were placed or dropped, I do not think it follows that all she did was staged. When I go into a convenience store, I am not even recalling that I am being filmed. Was she really thinking that at each stop she was being caught on cam? It might be possible that those items were dropped, and that nothing was staged, although I can see why that thought would occur. I too have a hard time imagining that they both simply drowned by accident, with nothing else occurring prior to that. Difficult to believe. So # 1 and also 2 and 3 to me remain more believable than 4, although 4 has become the official story of LE. As far as having another phone, then yes, it would make the Williams and all stage.....You did analyze well, I guess this case is just so confusing, and I do wish SS would surface, so that certain scenarios might be finally excluded.
 
The most likely is #1 and that someone had knowledge of that beach access road. moo. Did she have prior knowledge of that beach access road?

But I guess the story to be believed is that she got lost, bought some wine, caught a buzz, not enough to appear drunk, attempted to feed her son, then left, happened upon a house who fed him, then just happened to find that narrow path, got stuck on the beach, abandoned the van after getting her overnight bag out of the back, leaving the doors open, stumbled down, or up, the beach until coming to the steps, where she emptied her bag, but took the empty bag with her started up the steps, banged on the house, or Az did, returned to the beach, and drowned in the water.

I must admit, I'm having trouble believing that story. moo
From Yosande, above. I also have trouble with that story, although it is the official one.
 
---
BBM -I am not sure about this. I have always been taught that front-wheel drive vehicles should be towed from the front to reduce strain on the drive train.

IMO, if this van is front-wheel drive it would have been towed from the front. If the van was found backed into the water, the tow truck would have had to swing around and then back up to the front of the van.

shantina.jpg

With all due respect, we are dealing with a wide open beach, the tow truck drivers are experienced, there is no need for him to be doing all the up and back around like that! He would back in once. Line it up and hook to the cast iron ring most vehicles have for towing. Then a winch winds the vehicle up and pulls it onto a flatbed truck. The tow truck has a side to side and up and down guidance to do ANY adjusting to line it up. They do NOT pull up and back like that!

Those tracks would be made by her vehicle.
 
http://pediatrics.about.com/cs/grow...&pounds_10=0&pounds=0&pounds_percent=0&page=5

A 8 year old (male) child who is 100 pounds and is 4 feet tall has a body mass index of 30.6, which is over the 95th percentile, and would indicate that your child is overweight.

Your child's ideal body weight would be at a BMI at the 85th percentile or below, and so would be about 58 pounds.

This is another one of those things that has bothered me. We keep seeing comments about a 100 lb child being able (or not) to be washed out of the van.

I am doubting Az weighed 100lbs. IDK if it makes a difference or not.

We know SS said she was 5' 9'' - we can probably get a pretty close estimate of Az's height by comparing the two, and he looks to be of average build (not fat or thin).
 
I'm not sure I know what I'm looking at in the photo of the tracks. Can someone explain?

Is the greenish area on the right side with track lines coming from them the access road? And is that structure next to it what JP on the 911 call refers to as a bulkhead?. And would the water's edge be somewhere southwest of the photo?



0315shantina_search1.jpg
 
This is another one of those things that has bothered me. We keep seeing comments about a 100 lbs child being able (or not) to be washed out of the van.

I am doubting Az weighed 100lbs. IDK if it makes a difference or not.

We know SS said she was 5' 9'' - we can probably get a pretty close estimate of Az's height by comparing the two, and he looks to be of average build (not fat or thin).

It was from the flyer that RS has on his website: http://www.robbsimmons.com/Flyer.pdf

I agree that it seems a little heavy for an 8 yr old child that's listed as 4'8".
 


This is another one of those things that has bothered me. We keep seeing comments about a 100 lbs child being able (or not) to be washed out of the van.

I am doubting Az weighed 100lbs. IDK if it makes a difference or not.

We know SS said she was 5' 9'' - we can probably get a pretty close estimate of Az's height by comparing the two, and he looks to be of average build (not fat or thin).

I almost posted this yesterday. My son is the same age and he is nowhere near that height and weight. This is the average for an 8 year old boy:

45 inches
57.2 lbs

I know this can vary greatly - but if his height and weight listed are correct, he was OFF the growth charts. He didn't look that big to me.
 
I almost posted this yesterday. My son is the same age and he is nowhere near that height and weight. This is the average for an 8 year old boy:

45 inches
57.2 lbs

I know this can vary greatly - but if his height and weight listed are correct, he was OFF the growth charts. He didn't look that big to me.

No, he looked pretty much the way my own son looked at that age, who was closer to that average. Do you think if the 100 pounds was an error, and Azriel was more the normal size and weight, this accounts for his washing up earlier? I would think it would.
 
http://blogs.myspace.com/index.cfm?f...ogId=403531359
By the way, thinking of Azriel, just went back through the links I kept, and found her MySpace blog post about all her hopes for him. This to me just totally negates the idea that she could possibly be indifferent to his welfare, or more sinister, have planned to "dispose of him".:twocents:
 
I don't know if you followed the Tiffany Tehan thread but it's a mom that was by all accounts a loving, upstanding person that just up and left her husband and 1 yr old baby girl and traveled with a man to Florida with no notice to anyone. I don't think we can ever say that someone would never take a particular course of action.

FWIW I don't think Shantina intended to hurt Azriel but do think that decisions she made that night were the indirect cause of his death.
 
I don't know if you followed the Tiffany Tehan thread but it's a mom that was by all accounts a loving, upstanding person that just up and left her husband and 1 yr old baby girl and traveled with a man to Florida with no notice to anyone. I don't think we can ever say that someone would never take a particular course of action.

FWIW I don't think Shantina intended to hurt Azriel but do think that decisions she made that night were the indirect cause of his death.
Yes, I do see what you mean, but leaving a one year old baby, is different from planning to kill an 8 year old who is the center of your life. I know, loving parents and spouses are sometimes revealed to be killers. I do think indirectly, she was the casue of this outcome, through carelessness or recklessness or opening the door to trouble, but I think the premeditated thing is a stretch. And true, we can "never say never". Thanks...
 
Occurred to me last night...what if...

Shantina & Azriel fell asleep in the van. Later, one of them wakens to find the van partially submerged. In a panic, Shantina opens all the doors so they can escape, but in doing so, water rushes in and sweeps Azriel away.

It's dark. She can't see her son in the water, but she frantically dives in after him to try to retrieve him. Maybe she's in the water for a long length of time trying to find him. Maybe her search takes her down the shore. She's unsuccessful.

In a further panic, she runs to the nearest house and bangs on the outside. She gets no response, so she runs back to the water to search for him in the dark.

Maybe she reenters the water and is swept away herself. Maybe she decides to drown herself once she realizes her son is gone. Maybe she develops hypothermia while she's in the water looking for him and succumbs herself.

Possible...

Probably the correct scenario....I've thought this all along.
 
I'm not sure I know what I'm looking at in the photo of the tracks. Can someone explain?

Is the greenish area on the right side with track lines coming from them the access road? And is that structure next to it what JP on the 911 call refers to as a bulkhead?. And would the water's edge be somewhere southwest of the photo?



0315shantina_search1.jpg

Nobody can answer my questions above? I'm thinking I have it right, but I'm not sure. I used to think the water would have been to the right of that structure thing, so I was hoping for clarification.

Guess this board is getting kinda quiet, since we have no new information coming to us in the media.


Anyway---
I was thinking about how the rear hatch was found open, and trying to come up with a reason why it would have been opened like that.

The van was stuck there in the mud. A thing to try when that occurs is for someone to attempt to push the vehicle from behind while someone is in the driver's seat, stepping on the gas pedal and steering, isn't that so?

I was thinking that SS opened the hatch so that communication between the driver and whoever was pushing can be heard better through the open car? Ocean sounds and all that.

Trouble with this thought, is that A was so young; it seems a little silly to have him push. Or drive.

But if she did ask him to push, he could have exited the side door, which would explain that one being open. And the keys on the dash? I could picture that if she saw A in trouble (lost his footing?), she might hurriedly yank the keys out, throw them on the dash and go 'round back to help her son.

Then they both succumbed to the tides?

But then what about Chamberlain thinking they walked down the beach (due to those items found farther down), and the banging on the house?
Hm; can't fit those things into my just supposin'--

Sigh...it is so frustrating to have no answers...
 
Nobody can answer my questions above? I'm thinking I have it right, but I'm not sure. I used to think the water would have been to the right of that structure thing, so I was hoping for clarification.

Guess this board is getting kinda quiet, since we have no new information coming to us in the media.


Anyway---
I was thinking about how the rear hatch was found open, and trying to come up with a reason why it would have been opened like that.

The van was stuck there in the mud. A thing to try when that occurs is for someone to attempt to push the vehicle from behind while someone is in the driver's seat, stepping on the gas pedal and steering, isn't that so?

I was thinking that SS opened the hatch so that communication between the driver and whoever was pushing can be heard better through the open car? Ocean sounds and all that.

Trouble with this thought, is that A was so young; it seems a little silly to have him push. Or drive.

But if she did ask him to push, he could have exited the side door, which would explain that one being open. And the keys on the dash? I could picture that if she saw A in trouble (lost his footing?), she might hurriedly yank the keys out, throw them on the dash and go 'round back to help her son.

Then they both succumbed to the tides?

But then what about Chamberlain thinking they walked down the beach (due to those items found farther down), and the banging on the house?
Hm; can't fit those things into my just supposin'--

Sigh...it is so frustrating to have no answers...
I sympathize with your frustration. So many conflicting things, and I wish poor Shantina's body would surface, as I am afraid the case will "go cold". :( I agree that Chamberlain's supposition about the items "carried in a backpack" and dropped on the beach, rather than washing ashore, throws a huge monkey wrench into the "accidentally being swept away by tides" scenario, and might wholly negate it. I think every avenue should be explored by LE; I would hate to think a stranger did them harm, and has gotten away with it. Even the poor fiance is saying he cannot help but feel things do not add up.....
 
Addendum: Another thing which is frustrating and perplexing: I always wondered about the man's shoe, size 13. First it was reported that they found a woman's size 9 and a man's 13. Then it was said, no, a child's 13. Then we hear Lt. Detective Mealy saying on video that the smaller shoe was a woman's size 9, and it was identified as hers by fiance. Then I see out on the internet people saying there was never a man's shoe...:furious::furious:
 
Nothing new in this case at all. That must be difficult for the family.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
172
Guests online
2,885
Total visitors
3,057

Forum statistics

Threads
602,684
Messages
18,145,176
Members
231,487
Latest member
Chernobyl_Werewolf
Back
Top