WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #7

[sarx]

Again, there is so much focus on these tracks on the beach. Has it ever actually been confirmed that they were from her car? I see on here that there are some who feel it was from the tow truck. Being that these tracks seem to be such a focus on her mental state at the time I would like to know if they absolutely belong to her. Is this something LE looked in to? Did they talk to the tow truck driver? If not him, did they match it to her tires?

 

[slowpoke]

Again, there is so much focus on these tracks on the beach. Has it ever actually been confirmed that they were from her car? I see on here that there are some who feel it was from the tow truck. Being that these tracks seem to be such a focus on her mental state at the time I would like to know if they absolutely belong to her. Is this something LE looked in to? Did they talk to the tow truck driver? If not him, did they match it to her tires?

sarx, I don't know the answers to your questions regarding the tracks on the beach.

However, on the 911 call made by JP, he is reporting the van's presence on the beach, and says something to the effect that the tire tracks look fresh, so he surmises the van went down there last night (which would have been Saturday).

So from what he said, I think we can conclude with some certainty that there were discernable tracks left by the van, even after the tide cycle, at the time of the 911 call on Sunday morning.

But what we are seeing in that aerial photo? I guess we really don't know if some of the tracks belong to the tow truck or what.

I tried to find where the photo originated from to see if they had any caption describing what is in the picture, but at the King5 site (where I believe it is from), it is part of a gallery of photos and had no caption at all.

http://www.king5.com/home/Father-of-missing-boy-picks-up-search--88194812.html?gallery=y&c=y&img=10

So, I guess it is just another unknown in this case of many unknowns!

 

[PaulR]

The nearby RSOs don't seem to be good suspects IMHO. The closest wasn't even convicted for a sex crime. The two other closest were into kids (and Az wasn't molested.)

 

[houndstooth]

Hm. Now I am more unsure. I think you're thinking what I originally thought, too.

But after studying the following picture, I began to think I may have been looking at it the wrong way? What do you think:

The text under this image seems to indicate that it is a view from the access road looking down towards the beach.

So I see a green area at the end of the black (gravel?) area, and something that could be the "bulkhead" just beyond that green area.

So if you look back at the other photo of the overhead view with tracks, wouldn't the water where the van was found be have been somewhere to the left or bottom side of that photo?

I am so confused. Oh well. Doesn't matter that much, I guess, except I was trying to figure out what she was doing, according to her tracks. If they were her tracks, that is! Who knows, as some of you have said, it could just be the tow truck's tracks.

It would make it so much easier to get a perspective if this photo were taken at low tide instad of what looks like absolute high tide! Taking all three pics together of the vehicle on beach photo, the arial from above of tracks and this one, It is awfully hard to figure out what it looked like when she drove out there especially when you see the vehicle on an expanse of beach but the bulkhead is out of view! OBJECTS IN SCENE ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR?

 

[SMK]

The nearby RSOs don't seem to be good suspects IMHO. The closest wasn't even convicted for a sex crime. The two other closest were into kids (and Az wasn't molested.)

Agreed. More likely that possibly Shantina spoke to someone earlier who met up with her again (if one is looking at a possible 3rd party-foul play theory)

 

[AmandaReckonwith]

Will this help with perspective?
(I will work on a comparison)

I made a crude high tide line guesstimate:

 

[AmandaReckonwith]

This shows the perspective from the bottom of the hill, and the top of the hill.
pics were taken about the same time, near high tide.

Again, standing at the bottom of Zangle Rd, near the spot where sheriffs cars were parked (look up a post to see the car)

 

[houndstooth]

Will this help with perspective?
(I will work on a comparison)

I made a crude high tide line guesstimate:

You have made a huge contribution here!! Thanks so much. Now is the object to the right of the police cruiser the bulkhead? If so, then I have been all fouled up as to what the tracks were about. The high tide mark is probably pretty accurate, too.

I was totally off base as to her tracks indicating that she was stuck at the semi-circular gouge marks. Still, I wonder why no arials have been posted with the car in position. Only on a land perspective. I feel sure LE had taken some photos from a helicopter since they had a lot of time to wait from discovery to the time the tide was low and dry enough to drive a tow truck out onto.

 

[AmandaReckonwith]

Yes, that is the bulkhead (I'd say junk-pile) next to the Sheriff car.
In the pic that is on the left you can see the shadow of something falls onto the beach.

Looking from the ground, you can see something tall enough to cast a shadow.


My theory is that Shantina, in some state of "altered" drove down that road not knowing it
would end in water. Once she saw she was about to get to water, it was an OMG moment
and the ground was already soft under the van, and then she got the wheels stuck trying
to make a circular turn out and that is why the van is "backed in" not that she actually backed in.

The tide would have washed away any turn marks.

Second theory... She drove down, laying low from maybe a patroll she saw on the road? Rested a while, maybe fell asleep and woke up too late.

Either way, I think one of them got in trouble, fell under and the other stayed with to try and save him/her and both drowned.


Unless what ever happened was darker and someone else drove the van down there.
But that theory is hard to make any sense. When they processed the van, they might have measured the seat placement, mirrors, etc as well as any sign of a "predator" intercepting.

And the cops said "No Foul Play", right?

 

[AmandaReckonwith]

Also... and this is something I have seen people on all the boards mistake-

We wouldn't be able to spot any ingoing tire tracks from the van. The tide would wash that away. Think of a sand castle the kids build close to the water.

 

[houndstooth]

The "High Tide at the Bottom of Zangle Road" pic is very helpful. I cross referenced the landmarks with the google map/bing pics posted and I figure the van was about where the ripple to the left of the "island" is in the photo.

I still think she knew she would be taking a chance on getting stuck driving out there. I mean BACKING out onto there.

I think there is every reason to believe she either was to rendezvous at this spot because she knew of it beforehand or.... It is definitely not a place you would just stumble upon and drive down unless you knew where it led, and were sober enough to navigate such a tight, well road seems too generous a term.

Whoever removed the items from the van and left them near the stairs, did so before the tide came up as we can see. The "island" is a peninsula when the tide is low. When you get around the first headland, there is much more dry beach area to walk, according to the overhead maps, even at high tide, which was far away at 6am. I suspect foul play. I just am not sure who all would have been involved.

 

[slowpoke]

Also... and this is something I have seen people on all the boards mistake-

We wouldn't be able to spot any ingoing tire tracks from the van. The tide would wash that away. Think of a sand castle the kids build close to the water.

That's what I would think would be true, too. So it puzzled me to hear JP, who made the 911 call, say "judging the tracks--look fresh" in his call. So somewhere there were some tracks.

Perhaps he was talking about tracks up near or on the access road rather than on the beach, then.

Thank you for all those wonderful visuals! They were very helpful in getting a better picture of the scene. I envy your technical expertise.

 

[AmandaReckonwith]

I didn't notice the tow truck before. So the pic was snapped right before
the tow truck hooked up the van.

 

[slowpoke]

Wow, you have good eyes, too, AmandaReckonwith!

I still would not know that was a tow truck without you telling me it was.

So thank you again.

Sad we are hearing nothing new regarding the case.

 

[paris_paris]

What do the stops have in common, what is different:

For someone who had just spent 3 hours and lots of time between stops - the DW visit is an aberration - not only off the beaten path, but two left turns off the "main road" she was traveling - and with just a few minutes in between stops she has made (or attempted) more contacts between the Diner at 9:08 - Mercantile at 1035 than she appears to have all night.

snipped

I haven't followed for awhile. I just check in to see if she washes up on a beach or is found alive. Either is a possibility moo.

Back in the beginning, I noted how she ended up at DW's home. If she had headed north and made the 2 left turns, she basically would have arrived at the beach where she ended up anyway. I still think she knew that beach from a long time ago, had a desire to return there, and spent most of the night trying to find it.

 

[PaulR]

I still think she knew that beach from a long time ago, had a desire to return there, and spent most of the night trying to find it.

Why do you think that she knew the beach from a long time ago? She didn't grow up in Olympia, and that was a private beach.

 

[Calliope]

Growing up in Castle Rock only an hour away, wouldn't have Olympia been the "big city"? We can't say she wasn't familiar with Olympia. And how long have those homes been there?

 

[paris_paris]

Why do you think that she knew the beach from a long time ago? She didn't grow up in Olympia, and that was a private beach.

It was just something I thought, then when I saw the directions to the home she ended up at... I saw if she'd gone north and driven those directions, she'd basically end up at that beach.

It never felt right that she was totally lost in that city for those many hours. It seemed she was looking for a specific place.

Have we ever heard when she asked for directions, where she was asking for directions to?

 

[powayparent]

It seems it would have been newsworthy if the clerks had indicated she was looking for someplace else. If she was concerned about no one knowing where she was really headed, why didn't she just buy her own map?

 

[PaulR]

Have we ever heard when she asked for directions, where she was asking for directions to?

Yes, we have.