Working Theories Thread

[CaringCitizen]

First, some snipped points other theorists made on this thread (that I learned from or had already assimilated into my theory too); these are credited by name.

Chargers2010 noted:

"Summary of points leading to suspected theory:

1. LE states that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. This alone is huge and pretty states what they are thinking.
2. Children and teacher are allowed to return to school right away.
3. LE seems to be highly focused on one area for searching and its suggested source = cell phone pinging.
4. LE has been rather tight lipped in this case and has not been asking the public to look out for certain cars, suspect sketches, etc. Yes, they have been asking for video footage however".

Revampz noted:

"I have had quite a few theories....I have never thought it was premeditated until someone above mentioned maybe Kyron was hurt and "was going to tell" or the fear put into them that he might tell.....I had an aha moment......that would give motive....or if they thought he may have hurt a younger member of the family....therefore was told to go to parking lot and dont know the rest....."

Pufnstuf noted:

"I will say that I believe that it was premeditated. I believe every detail of that day was planned and mentally rehearsed".

EmmaPeel notes:

"Today my updated working theory connects these assumptions:
1) Kyron was specifically the target - this was a planned Kyron abduction.
2) Kyron knew the person he left school with
3) The person(s) knew Kyron’s schedule
4) The person(s) were familiar with this particular school and the school schedule"

"6) LE believes this to be the case due to a credible lead
7) It involves someone(s) known to the family
8) It involves someone(s) known to the school"

"10) The community has an idea
11) The neighbors house has recently been searched
12) Kyron’s brother only recently moved hours away (reason?)
13) Kyron’s brother was away camping with his father
14) Kyron knows older kids - teens - through his brother"

I snipped out 5 and 9 from Emma's list because they are the only two variants that do not fit my theory's list.

--------NOW HERE IS MY THEORY----------

1. LE has a POI but not enough 'goods' right now to obtain a warrant

2. No warrant = no right to criminally search POI's vehicle or home yet

3. But LE has gotten to do a cursory 'approved by car/homeowner' type of search (with that person hoping they are not a POI but would have anticipated such cursory searching due to proximity)

4. 'Not enough goods' also equates to LE wanting to avoid making a potential POI suspicious and hence 'going out of their way' to make specific people relax as much as possible

5. Relaxing someone can be as simple as to say 'do things as normal'. This includes NOT ASKING people to change their online presence to a private status

6. POI determined by:

a) Intimate knowledge of the school, including its: property layout (in and out), rules & guidelines, processes, habits, schedule, & people

b) Intimate knowledge about the Science Fair and corresponding specific school schedule and processes for that day

c) Intimate knowledge of the victim

d) Intimate knowledge of the victim's schedule (school or otherwise) for the entire day

e) Freedom of own schedule: eg, no employmer or other types of commitments involving 'having to be somewhere at a certain time'

f) One or more additional attributes in the determination: alibi discrepancies or oddities; ping activity; interaction with social media; recent tensions amongst relevant parties; and motive.

That's my theory based on everything I know right now. Looking forward to seeing more facts come out so I can either reject or keep accepting this one, as the case moves forward. Poor Kyron - what a darling little boy.

 

[eyes4crime]

There is only a photo of Kyron's bowling friend with his own project, the one that some people believe to be inferior to Kyron's. I think the kid's project was awesome, because he obviously did it himself. Not to detract from Kyron's project, which I believe was some kind of "going away present," to calm the guilt that was being felt as the plans were being made.

JMO.

Regarding Kyron's project being a 'going away present': This isn't the first project Kyron has done - remember the one on 'bridges' that his mother attended (you posted that info)? Is there a huge discrepancy from his previous work to this one? A so called escalation of brilliance or attentiveness to detail? If so, please give us a link Puff, it would help me understand your words 'going away present'. TIA moo mho

 

[justlogic]

Interesting theory....but class DID begin at 8:45 am, there was a warning bell at 8:35 and the final bell at 8:45. Then the kids began their tours. This is one of the few, confirmed absolute facts that we do have in this case.

jmo

Thanks for the heads up on the time. I will be keeping track of all corrections and revising periodically.

 

[Deeemdee]

I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses.

*snip*

I think if they'd found his glasses they'd announce that they'd found his glasses. They certainly do in other missing person's cases. I think they showed a replica of his glasses in case someone came across a pair of glasses like that, say, walking down the road, just like they showed a replica of Kayleah Wilson's asthma inhaler for the same reason, and Tiffany Sessions Rolex watch. For the same reason they harp on unique items any missing person was known to have. Molly Bish's blue bathingsuit, etc. They harped on the blue bathingsuit for years, and it finally paid off.
I've seen this glasses claim elsewhere and I really don't see why police would hide having found them and then in addition to that pass them off as merely a replica. What would be the point? What would be the rationale behind this charade?

 

[raeann]

*snip*

I think if they'd found his glasses they'd announce that they'd found his glasses. They certainly do in other missing person's cases. I think they showed a replica of his glasses in case someone came across a pair of glasses like that, say, walking down the road, just like they showed a replica of Kayleah Wilson's asthma inhaler for the same reason, and Tiffany Sessions Rolex watch. For the same reason they harp on unique items any missing person was known to have. Molly Bish's blue bathingsuit, etc. They harped on the blue bathingsuit for years, and it finally paid off.
I've seen this glasses claim elsewhere and I really don't see why police would hide having found them and then in addition to that pass them off as merely a replica. What would be the point? What would be the rationale behind this charade?

If they were his real glasses, they would have to remain in an evidence envelope and be handled with gloves only and put onto only a sterile surface until the DEFENSE experts had a chance to examine them. Even at trial, the evidence such as that will most often be handled with gloves because of the need to preserve it for appeals.

jmoo

 

[Starry Night]

My theory is that first and foremost this was a crime of opportunity. That the perp has been a perp forever....a child lover/predator. That HE saw K and on a breathless moment just took him. He is probably a resident nearby or a neighbor in the surrounding area and when he saw the marquee advertising the event-wham. In and out. Sort of organized and unorganized......Probably had a few drinks in him from the night before. Saw this beautiful child with glasses on. For some odd reason I feel the glasses made this boy more vulnerable and attractive. I bet 10 to 1 that he (the perp) is on video or film somewhere. I do not think this perp really knows anyone at the school. He may have made some practice runs before the Science Fair-sitting in the parking lot in his car or walking in or phone calls to determine level of security/stupidity etc. I feel that the perp had a model child in mind before he arrived at the school. He must be good at blending in. I bet he also wears glasses. FWIW.

 

[BeanE]

Your Attention Please

Please stick with theories of what happened to Kyron in this thread.

- Who (person or type of person such as stranger, stranger familiar with school, etc)
- What happened (abduction in the school, wandered away and then abducted, etc)
- Why (why you think this type of person and this type of crime)

Theories of other things such as what LE are doing, thinking, etc, are off-topic and lead to general discussion. Please post those discussions in the appropriate existing thread, or create a new one if it's a new topic.

I really appreciate everyone who's taking the time to post your theories and discuss them. I'm getting a lot out of reading them. As soon as I have more time I hope to join in the discussions more!

Thanks!
BeanE
Mod

 

[BeanE]

I temporarily removed a couple of posts until a senior mod or admin has a chance to review them. I apologize for the interruption.

Thanks for your patience!

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod

 

[AnaTeresa]

I've been mulling over this case a lot, particularly because LE is playing it close to the chest. I'm starting to build a solid theory, but there's not much to go on. This may substantially change once we have more information released to the media.

First and foremost, I strongly believe this is a non-family abduction.

Kyron is a dreamy kid, sometimes prone to distraction, and has ADD or ADD-like symptoms. He is also allegedly afraid of cops, despite his stepfather's position in LE. He can be timid and shy; he was educated about "stranger danger." He also was likely to be led into mischief by friends, rather than getting into mischief of his own volition. Therefore, he likely was abducted by someone in a position of "authority" over him - an older child (possibly a playmate with a dominate personality), a teacher, a parent or volunteer, or another adult. A small group (likely children or teenagers) would also carry the same effect, although probably no more than 3-4 could be involved without attracting attention or without scaring Kyron off with too great an intimidation factor. The higher the ages of the participants, the lesser amount would be involved in the situation. He may have been targeted, however, his abduction was most likely a crime of opportunity.

The perpetrator is most likely a white male, and there's a 53% chance he is not known to the family (NISMART). He's probably a previous offender and those offenses were probably sexually motivated, although they will have escalated over time. His is probably under the age of 30, although I would pinpoint him as younger - early twenties or late teens, or if he was older, he would certainly have either an immaturity compared to his peers or a significantly lower IQ (NISMART, OJJDP). He's unemployed or working a minimum wage job, and living alone or with his parents (NISMART). I have a feeling he may be involved in some sort of alternative lifestyle, such as transient living, growing marijuana, or possibly some sort of commune/cult living. He will probably identify himself as Christian (CSBSJU). I'm curious to see if there is some sort of Scouts, youth group, Little League, or other youth-oriented activity connection. I believe this may be the case.

Most importantly, he was likely at the school for a "valid" reason. He was able to blend in with the rest of the school without anyone else noticing - either as staff, student, or parental visitor. The method of abduction in 65% of the incidents was a sighting, a sudden assault and a quick abduction. (OJJDP). He likely had prior visual sighting of Kyron to pick him as a target, but this was most likely a crime of opportunity. Had Kyron been groomed, someone may have noticed the changes in behavior that would result.

He has probably abducted Kyron for a sexual purpose. If Kyron is still alive, he is likely within 50 miles of the abduction location (true for 85% of cases), and in 28% of cases, the victim is kept in the perp's home (OJJDP). However, it is most likely that Kryon is dead, and was assaulted violently. 74% of children kidnapped by strangers are murdered within the first hour (OJJDP). At this point, I strongly believe the investigation centers on finding his body so that physical evidence can prove the case.

Most likely, Kyron was abducted by a male aged 16-25, white, and with some significant ties to Skyline school. He was probably sexually assaulted and then murdered shortly after the abduction took place.

What a depressing first post!

 

[Billylee]

"Hard tellin' ...not knowin'."

That's my theory so far. There has not been enough information released (valid anyway) to make any kind of logical theory. Too much still left to speculation and rumor. One thing though, that I think we can all agree on is that this child did not go kicking and screaming. Add that to LE's statement that this is an "isolated case". (I DO wish one of the reporters would ask what they EXACTLY mean by that!) And the fact the LE is not saying be on the look out for...or keep your children inside, etc., points to someone Kyron knew and trusted. Not necessarily family of course.

So, so far, all I can put my money on is that Kyron was taken by someone he knew and trusted. That could be anyone from school faculty, coaches, counselors, neighbors, friends (new or old), janitors, cafeteria personnel, policemen, firemen or anyone else he was taught to trust, as well as family, immediate or otherwise.

I have a sign in my kitchen right next to my coffee pot, so I see it every morning (maybe sometimes only with one eye, lol) it's a little prayer and it reads:

Daily Prayer: Oh Lord, please help me to keep my big mouth shut until I know what I'm talking about.

Amen.

 

[Pensfan]

Welcome to WS, AnaTeresa!
------------------------------
Post# 168 (just joking, guys)
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Vn5kCasUo"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Vn5kCasUo[/ame]

 

[Starry Night]

Billylee...I just don't see this as someone knowing this child-sorry! I think it was a semi-rash act from a freak who did not know anyone.....I don't know....I see this as an act from a perp who got his bravado from the situation (opportunity).....I think the SOB just walked in the school. I DO agree with you in that the perp prolly lives with his mother or relatives however. Renting a room? Are they doing Census in that zip?

 

[BeanE]

Welcome to WS, AnaTeresa!
------------------------------
Post# 168 (just joking, guys)

lol. We're almost there.

Thanks for your patience and understanding, everyone.

BeanE

 

[BeanE]

Closing thread for five minutes to give everyone a chance to read this:

[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=107015"]Rumors - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

 

[Starry Night]

Dear God.....please no

 

[just]

Hey all,

A quick hello. I'm new to the boards and find these posts very interesting and informative. I live a few miles from Skyline and so have been following this case on the boards. I generally don't watch the news. There are billboards around the neighborhoods with Kyron's picture and it's just so sad and unbelievable. I think this case is very unusual in the lack of info, which in itself is information!

My theories are the same as many posted here. I'm trying to look at this logically from many angles and, again, based on the information we have it is very hard for me to believe that someone not known to Kyron could pull this off, but it is my second theory - as you'll see below (BTW, if anything is inaccurate, please know it is not on purpose and certainly not to start rumors swirling! It's a hard case to keep up with):

1) Theory 1: Kyron left with his stepmother and something happened to him. They had a fight. She did something stupid. She freaked out and had to get rid of him. Why this might be possible:
She was the last to see him. I have not heard the LE say specifically they are confident she drove away from the school alone. I have not heard the LE clear the family, nor have I heard any member say "please please help us find our little boy, we have passed the lie detector tests, we have nothing to do with this, please please keep looking!" When asked if they were keeping the family from making a statement (as per the grandparents, I believe), the LE said it wasn't true, in fact they were helping them with a statement. The LE wouldn't answer the reporters question of 'did Kyron have an appointment?' and if SM did say that at the science fair (i.e., he had an appointment 'but I meant next week') that alone is very very damaging and it would make perfect sense that a teacher would mark him absent knowing he went off with SM for an appointment, even with his jacket, backpack and I'm assuming lunch left at his desk.

I actually believe SM did not plan for anything to happen to Kyron but when it did, she pretended she never left with him. I guess as a mother I hope that's what may have happened if it's her or any family member.

2) Theory 2: Someone saw the 'science fair' sign and came in, high on crack or mental illness or who knows what and simply wanted to get their 'kid fix' and blended in with the crowd. Then when they saw it was a bit too busy, that they might make a clean getaway from a side door - they thought, hey, I can lure a kid to my car with - 'can you help me carry in some ______ for the science fair? or, 'you should see the exhibit that's in my car!' and if they were spotted or approached, they would have plan B and say 'you know I'm working on my son's science project and wanted to get ideas' or 'my wife sent me with my nephew's ______(batteries, paper, lunch) and Kyron here was helping me but I guess I have the wrong school!' something along those lines. But lo and behold, somehow through the chaos he got poor Kyron to walk out to help him and drove away.

I find my second theory hard to believe because:
1) The LE says it's an isolated incident and we shouldn't worry (I'm still worried, BTW and don't sleep well!).
2) They didn't give any description of any vehicles, people, nothing. That just seems beyond odd to me when they keep asking us to look for this poor boy.
3) The perp could far more easily idle on any street and get some poor child that way and not take all this risk.
4) They haven't cleared the family.

Bottom line for me, I really think this is a known person to the family, if not the SM then a neighbor, coach, someone -- and perhaps this has been known since day 1 to LE, but LE was hoping against all odds their hunches were wrong, that they'd find him quickly and easily in the woods, locked in a school closet, etc. Now that they haven't, they need to find the body to prosecute.

If this is a stranger abduction, unless there is very good reason for LE keeping things close to the vest, they have missed an opportunity to use all the people and resources of this town to help find Kyron and that will be, to say the least, very disheartening, especially in the early hours after he went missing.

And as I said, I live a few miles away and didn't even hear about it until Monday -- far too long after he went missing.

I do hope and pray this little boy comes home soon.

 

[pufnstuf]

Hi, just. Welcome to the nuthouse! Just kidding. :wave:

Glad you joined us. Looking forward to reading more of your posts.

 

[scandi]

I just have the beginning of my theory, rather, it isn't thought out all the way through yet:

It has seemed odd to me that Kyron wanted to go see the electrical exhibit right away, not waiting to go with his class group of 6. It's been a gnawin' at me for days now.

BANG It just hit me as to why. He knew he had to leave school and wouldn't be there for the tour.


Familial it was and he was told someone was going to be there to pick him up around 9, to be watching for ??? ~ a certain friend of the family or relative to pick him up. It could have been said as an exciting event for Kyron if say family was in from out of town for the day and they were planning to spend time together.

Now something radically went wrong, the worst scenario Kyron never expected to happen, and he died in the act of it. Something his caregivers never expected to happen. And from this tragedy, familial again, Sauvie Island came into play as it was where he was taken for placement.

What a horrific situation that would be. And it would explain everything that has happened in the last 14 days.

IMO there is a connection to SI with this person and/or the familial part again and I do believe LE has put their finger on it, just don't have all their i's dotted yet.

Realizing too that having knowledge of a crime and not giving it up to protect someone makes one as guilty as if they had done it themselves IMO

Hope it is OK to post that, if not I'll delete it.

 

[Vegas Bride]

This theory keeps coming to me, I'm not saying it's what I believe happened, just that it also is a possibility.

Here you have a young child, small and IMO vulnerable. From what I understand his science project was quite large and to another child could be rather impressive. An older child there at the school could have been envious and managed to lure him somewhere private.
There have been times when children have done terrible things to other children.

I'm sure LE has looked into any other children in the school missing from class, at least I hope so!

Of course if another child did do something, they would not have the ability to take him off the school grounds so he would have been able to be found.

VB

 

[Kimster]

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