When the Merry Piglets incident came to light, Gabby's mom said that it didn't fit with their timeline. That has kept me thinking. If the Merry Piglets was an inaccurate sighting, that leaves the blue heeler lady sighting of the van’s arrival at Spread Creek campground. That witness saw only BL in the driver's seat, no GP. That was August 26th. (Merry Piglets was the 27th.) (The blue heeler report of him in spread creek was turned in on Thursday September 16, the Bethune sighting was turned in at 1 am Sunday September 19, and GP's body was found on Sunday September 19. So the blue heeler lady's report was the first to tie him to Spread Creek. This gives credence to her report which included that he was alone.) On the 27th and 28th she saw the van still there with no indications of anyone at the van.
Gabby Petito case: What one witness saw near the Tetons may help FBI unravel mystery
So it's possible that GP was already killed elsewhere on the 26th and BL brought her to spread creek to ditch the van and body. From the 26th to the 29th, he ran and hid, much as he is currently running and hiding. During that time he may have learned that running and hiding is doable but hard without resources. There was a snapchat sent to a friend and a text about Stan sent from her phone during these couple days so he would’ve had to have her phone with him. The 29th was the day of the two hitchhiking incidents. If he'd seen evidence of the campground being closed or police activity, I think he would have continued on the lam. With the van and body undiscovered, IMO he took the van and her capital one card and returned to Florida for a break from the running and hiding. At this point he thinks he may get away with it.
At some point between Sept 1 and Sept 14, he returns to his running and hiding. It would be nice to know what date and with whose assistance, however, we can look at the August 26th-29th time period. In those three days of running and hiding, he made it about 20 miles away. He remained in the woods and emerged at Colter Bay Village which has campground facilities. Based on this, LE looking for him in Carlton Reserve seems reasonable. From August 26th-29th, he did not go far and he made use of a campground's facilities. I would look for him to be caught on security video or cell phone video using the facilities at any of the nearby campgrounds such as Myakka River state park or farther away. If he's getting assistance from a relative, such as resupplying, that is a reason to stay close. If he's not getting assistance, he might be farther afield at a pace no more than 7 miles a day following state forests down to the everglades or north to Ocala forest with no real long term plan.