17 yo Trayvon Martin Shot to Death by Neighborhood Watch Captain #32

[Ninety5rpm]

That is only true if all of the speculations are unrelated to each other. That isn't the case here.

Fair enough, I didn't analyze it that level. But I was trying to account for that with the generously high percentage of 75%.

 

[Emeralgem]

--this article was posted last night.

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/witness-sanford-police-blew-us-teen-slaying/nLSqk/

WFTV also learned that Zimmerman has been the victim of violence at least twice in the past.

He was working security for a party at an Altamonte Springs home in 2005 and residents said someone broke his jaw when he tried to break up a fight.

That same year, he was robbed at gunpoint at a 7-Eleven after eating dinner at a nearby Chili's restaurant.

Are there police reports backing up these two claims?

 

[Boytwnmom]

to present the defendants defense in any document they file with the court. They are filing saying there is probable cause that a crime was committed-ergo, there was no self defense as if there were it would NOT have been a crime so why would they put in "evidence" of self defense which they have already concluded doesn't exist-makes zero sense. A probable cause affidavit is a bare bones document designed to get an indictment, arrest etc while divulging the least amount of evidence they already have.

Is not up to the court to read anything more into the probable cause affidavit other than what it contains. For the same reason, evidence that GZ was acting in self defense SHOULD HAVE been included.

 

[Donjeta]

Your scenario was not "nothing but speculation" (I didn't bold every statement), and neither were mine.

If I describe a scenario that hinges on a series of speculations, then, yes, of course, it too is probably pretty unlikely to be accurate. How unlikely depends on how many speculations there are, and the likelihood of each being true.

For example, if it has three speculations and each is 50% likely to be correct, then the entire scenario has a 12.5% chance (.50 *. 50 * .50) of being accurate. If each of three speculations is only 25% likely, then the whole scenario has only a 1.5% chance (.25 * .25 * .25, or .25 ^ 3) of being correct.

Your scenario hinged on a dozen speculations. Even if each has a generous 75% chance of being correct, the chance of the entire scenario being true is .75 ^ 12 = .031 or 3.1%. That's why I said it's highly unlikely.

MOO
I wouldn't calculate the probability of interconnected speculations being true like that because they might not be independent of each other. Rather it may be that Proposition A has 50 % chance of being true but if Proposition A is true, then it is 80 % likely that Propositions B and C are true as well.

 

[annalia]

--this article was posted last night.

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/witness-sanford-police-blew-us-teen-slaying/nLSqk/

WFTV also learned that Zimmerman has been the victim of violence at least twice in the past.

He was working security for a party at an Altamonte Springs home in 2005 and residents said someone broke his jaw when he tried to break up a fight.

That same year, he was robbed at gunpoint at a 7-Eleven after eating dinner at a nearby Chili's restaurant.

BBM

What year was the house party where he allegedly threw a woman? Would this be the same party?

JMHO

 

[badme102]

Your scenario was not "nothing but speculation" (I didn't bold every statement), and neither were mine.

If I describe a scenario that hinges on a series of speculations, then, yes, of course, it too is probably pretty unlikely to be accurate. How unlikely depends on how many speculations there are, and the likelihood of each being true.

For example, if it has three speculations and each is 50% likely to be correct, then the entire scenario has a 12.5% chance (.50 *. 50 * .50) of being accurate. If each of three speculations is only 25% likely, then the whole scenario has only a 1.5% chance (.25 * .25 * .25, or .25 ^ 3) of being correct.

Your scenario hinged on a dozen speculations. Even if each has a generous 75% chance of being correct, the chance of the entire scenario being true is .75 ^ 12 = .031 or 3.1%. That's why I said it's highly unlikely.

First of all, I didn't post the scenario that you said was highly unlikely, (it was another poster) and secondly, I wasn't asking for a math lesson.

When I post, I tend to "speculate" with the real known facts that are available to us, along with common sense and logic.
Occam's Razor has no place here because some people will even disagree on the most basic principles of common sense, logic and facts. (non-assuming)

As a matter of fact, your "assumption" and/or generalization of the "Gated Community Mentality" defies Occam's Razor major principle--" in explaining a thing no more assumptions should be made than are necessary."

 

[mercuriod]

o

imo, It is totally him. The same language is used in the post and his letter to the office of the governor
http://www.scribd.com/doc/88303139/Zimmerman-Family-letter-to-the-NAACP
go to page 4 of 7

eta http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/new...of-sanford-police-lieutenant-turns-himself-in
first comment in comment section

I am not sure that GZ wrote the letter to the office of the governor, he just passed it out to others.

 

[badme102]

Huh? Following is not apprehending.

Are you saying that merely following someone is "taking a risk to prevent a crime"?

Sheesh. Why would following someone within your own community be taking a risk? Because they might get pissed off and assault you?

Read the handbook. Read the SYG laws.

 

[LynnM]

Huh? Following is not apprehending.

Are you saying that merely following someone is "taking a risk to prevent a crime"?

Sheesh. Why would following someone within your own community be taking a risk? Because they might get pissed off and assault you?

Isn't that what you think happened?

 

[Sensei]

Then how did GZs nose get broken?

Occam's razor - other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one.

Sorry but I see no indication that GZ's nose WAS in fact broken. And as of today we have no medical documentation that it was. When seen on the Police intake video his nose did not appear swollen, he was able to lean his head down, which is usually very very difficult for someone with a broken nose since it makes it throb unmericifully. He did not seem to have any light sensitivity and usually after a broken nose you look like a racoon with black eyes which may not have had a chance to develop but usually, your eyes are a bit more sensitive to light. His nose was not bleeding and generally a broken nose bleeds like no tomorrow, yet there was not a speck of blood on his clothes either.

his brother claims that he was choking on the blood going down his throat during the fight, and if this is so then he would probably have needed a balloon sinoplasty to stop that bleeding which is not a treatment that could be given by an emt, but he was not carrying tissue and we did not see him spit in the video, and he did not seem to have any trouble breathing....sooo on the whole I will wait for some form of proof before I am convinced that GZ had a broken nose, and that it was actually broken that night...IMO JMHO and stuff.

So in this particular case Occams Razor would demand that I consider that there was no broken nose rather than assume that this broken nose was completely and utterly without all the normal and usual symptoms that are clearly apparent with most if not all broken noses. IMO JMHO and stuff.

 

[Elley Mae]

this is april 3 article

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/03/us-usa-florida-shooting-trayvon-idUSBRE8320UK20120403

Sanford police released Zimmerman without charge, but Martin says Serino told him he would challenge Zimmerman's account. "The detective's words were, 'I want to interview him again to catch him in a lie,'" Martin said.

"Chris (Serino) would have made a recommendation for manslaughter, but Norm Wolfinger's office wanted it to be a slam dunk," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity

Although police found no contradictions within Zimmerman's story, their decision not to arrest Zimmerman was lambasted by critics and has sparked demonstrations around the country.

 

[LambChop]

Then how did GZs nose get broken?

Occam's razor - other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one.

I believe we all agree they were on the ground. Any hard object such as the flashlight or even TM's head could have hit GZ's nose if TM fell on top of him. If GZ had tried to hold onto TM I could see there would have been a struggle which caused the two to go down onto the ground. If TM tried to get away I could also believe that GZ would try to hold onto him and that would make sense otherwise why was GZ following TM.

Let's face it everything points to GZ not wanting TM to get away. He mentions it in his conversation with LE and the follows even after he was told he did not have to. GZ was determined this time this one was not getting away. jmo

 

[Donjeta]

BBM

What year was the house party where he allegedly threw a woman? Would this be the same party?

JMHO

It was allegedly also 2005... eventful year for GZ.

Would the co-worker have said GZ totally overreacted if the woman had broken his jaw first?

The source said Zimmerman, who made between $50 and $100 a night, was let go in 2005.

“He had a temper and he became a liability,” the man said. “One time this woman was acting a little out of control. She was drunk. George lost his cool and totally overreacted,” he said. “It was weird, because he was such a cool guy, but he got all nuts. He picked her up and threw her. It was pure rage. She twisted her ankle. Everyone was flipping out.”

The year 2005 was a bad one for Zimmerman: he was arrested for fighting with a cop trying to arrest his friend for underage drinking, and he and his ex-fiancée took out protective orders against each other.

http://articles.nydailynews.com/201...bert-zimmerman-gated-community-security-guard

 

[Reader]

I'm trying to figure out why the Sunshine Laws don't apply in this case. I think the media has filed a law suit to have the information made available to the public, but I'm not positive.

I did hear this morning that GZ's attorney has requested a body guard for GZ at the expense of the tax payers. WTH? Did anyone else hear that?

Catching up so don't know if this has been posted yet....

http://www.flcourts18.org/PDF/Press_Releases/FPA_m_intervene.pdf

Florida Press Assn. Motion to Intervene
Filed 4/19/12 to the SA

Also same motions to intervene filed by Hearst Corp., McClatchy Co. and WFTV

 

[Boytwnmom]

I just hate when Seinfeld is misquoted and have spent many many hours watching repeats to make sure I always accurately represent all of the profound observations that came out of that singular series...HA-HA-HA!

At least you did not confuse it, as so many do, with a "CLOSE talker". Now, that just drives me crazy.

It is my opinion that he didn't know he would see him again and didn't want TM to know where he lived. I did notice that when GZ is talking to dispatch and he is out of the vehicle his voice gets to more of a Whisper or as Seinfeld said a"soft talker"lol I do think that GZ was pumped not seeing TM. jmo

 

[annalia]

It was allegedly also 2005... eventful year for GZ.

Would the co-worker have said GZ totally overreacted if the woman had broken his jaw first?


http://articles.nydailynews.com/201...bert-zimmerman-gated-community-security-guard

Thanks

I wonder, if it was the same party that this allegedly happened with the woman, if his broken jaw might have been an after result of what happened with her, that's when everyone was flipping out, his jaw winds up broken.

JMHO

 

[Phoenixfla]

So in essence, in thinking that this was Zimmerman who wrote the comment in the newspaper and now comparing it to the letter sent to the NAACP, I'm guessing Zimmerman must have have written that letter himself claiming it was from "A Concerned Zimmerman Family Member." This is exactly what I was talking about yesterday when I said he will never be able to keep his silence until a trial even though it is in his best interest to do so. It's just a matter of time before something he says or does comes out.



~jmo~

Could it also have been RZ that posted on the article, wrote the letter from "A Concerned Family Member" and created the content on the website? At the bail hearing we heard that RZ was the person that know how much the website collected.

How do we know it was GZ?

 

[i.b.nora]

For anyone interested in The City of Sanford, their search for a new police chief in the Spring of 2011 and Bill Lee, the standown Police Chief, I found a spectacuarly good article, by Joy-Ann Reid, who often appears on MSNBC, is a real journalist who works for NBC and is managing editor of their online "black news oriented" website.

The article was published April 2, 2012, and reports on the 'history' of the Sanford search for the new police chief. It mentions three people who credentials were "head and shoulders" above the eventual candidate Bill Lee, Jr. One in particular was a Michael Blow, an African American from Prince George's County, Maryland. Another, an African American woman, Sonja White, a deputy police chief from Orlando. And Robert Musco, police chief of Glen Cove Springs, Florida.

For a variety of reasons, it fell to the 4th candidate, Bill Lee, Jr.

Lee met the minimum requirements for qualification to be Police Chief.

I found the article by googling "Tom George" who served as an interim City Manager of "Sanford" before Norton Bonaparte, Jr. was hired.

Not sure I have seen it anywhere else, but I will look: on the day that Lee 'stood down' he promoted 5 officers, including Steve Lynch, who was involved in a 2011 shooting of a black man (he was cleared) and Randy Smith, who was the sergeant on duty the night police responded to the Trayvon Martin case.


ETA: Apologies, didn't realize this was spoken of and linked to in the Media Thread, by Reader.
[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7763635"]Trayvon Martin Shooting Media Thread - NO DISCUSSION - Page 3 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

 

[Reader]

If GZ was so good at his job as a "watch Captain" why did he not identify himself right away while on the phone with LE. Sounds like that would be SOP for someone who took it upon himself to patrol this community since the NWP was set up???? jmo

Exactly! Seems like he would be proud to announce to TM: "Hey, I'm the NWP on patrol for tonite and in charge here! Are you a resident, where do you live?"

Simple courtsey on GZ's part could have prevented this entire tragedy....

WHY that particular night was he so hyper about strangers and paranoid about TM being there? TM was obviously not doing anything wrong...even GZ with all his negative observations did not find any crime that TM was committing. We do know from records he reported a LOT of suspicious people but WHY was he so determined to stop TM and WHY this one night did he let it get so out of hand without even letting TM know who he was and why he was following him???

 

[Sensei]

We do know from records he reported a LOT of suspicious people

Which once again makes me wonder if all these suspicious people were doing the same kinds of suspicious things that Trayvon was doing IOW walking through his neighborhood while remaining unknown to George Zimmerman. I seems that they could possibly have been doing nothing more suspcious than that and still had PD called on them. I wish PD had actually caught some of them so we would know if ALL his calls were based on that same lack of actually doing something but on his not knowing who they were and stuff.