2022 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

[PayrollNerd]

2022 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2022.

Alex (unused) Bonnie (unused) Colin (unused) Danielle (unused) Earl (unused) Fiona (unused) Gaston (unused)

Hermine (unused) Ian (unused) Julia (unused) Karl (unused) Lisa (unused) Martin (unused) Nicole (unused)

Owen (unused) Paula (unused) Richard (unused) Shary (unused) Tobias (unused) Virginie (unused) Walter (unused)

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hurricane center says first tropical wave of 2022 weakens

Forecasters said the first tropical wave of the hurricane season is losing some of its mojo as it moves west.

www.orlandosentinel.com

May 09, 2022

Snip
The wave – which popped up on Mother’s Day, some 23 days before the official start of hurricane season – moved off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic.

“Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands,” the NHC said.

 

[PayrollNerd]

An intensifying 'La Nina' pattern may help lead to another above normal hurricane season. KHOU 11 Chief Meteorologist David Paul has a preview.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Snip
It’s called the Loop Current, and it’s the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks.

When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what’s forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks along the Northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida.

Snip
This year, the Loop Current looks remarkably similar to the way it did in 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina crossed the Loop Current before devastating New Orleans. Of the 27 named storms that year, seven became major hurricanes. Wilma and Rita also crossed the Loop Current that year and became two of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record.

Bad news for the 2022 hurricane season: The Loop Current, a fueler of monster storms, is looking a lot like it did in 2005, the year of Katrina

 

[JerseyGirl]

Thanks for the new thread! A disturbance already?!?!

 

[PayrollNerd]

If you're in Florida and need to go shopping, here's your list.

https://floridarevenue.com/disasterprep/Documents/2022DPposter11X17.pdf

 

[PayrollNerd]

NHC tracking possible tropical development

 

[PayrollNerd]

Probably just a rain event, which will be very welcome since it's been dry and hot.

Snip:
Close does warn, however, that the already-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico mean the system could develop quickly and Tampa Bay remains a potential place for landfall. Three models project the storm will strike either Charlotte or Sarasota counties, just south of Tampa Bay. Others predict the system will never make it off Mexico’s mainland.

‘It could happen fast:’ Meteorologist tells Floridians to monitor Gulf system

 

[PayrollNerd]

Likelihood rising for a rain event for Sarasota. We had a lot of rain in SWFL from 6pm to 10pm tonight. I'll get out in the yard and fix a few things so water will move a bit easier along the backyard gully. Hopefully my garden doesn't become too waterlogged. Fortunately it is raised beds.

Snip
The Euro and the GFS now are coming in agreement that a south Florida or SW Florida target is likely. This storm look to be a big rain maker but not much of a big wind storm. As with any tropical system there are a lot of changes that can occur between now and Friday night through Saturday.

ABC7 FIRST ALERT WEATHER- Tropical development now likely

As of 2 p.m. Tuesday the National Hurricane Center has raised the chances for development now to 70% for a tropical depression or storm

www.mysuncoast.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

I really thought we'd get more rain than we have here in Sarasota. The storm has moved south and then north. My aunt and uncle in the Sebastian area on the east coast are getting a lot more rain.

Tropical Storm Alex Soaked South Florida With Flooding Rain Before It Was Named | The Weather Channel

The season's first tropical storm is brought wind and flooding rains to Florida. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

weather.com

This system will move across Florida Saturday, however, the NHC now says it may not develop into a tropical storm until it emerges into the Atlantic Ocean Saturday night or Sunday.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Disturbance Could Turn Into Next Named Storm

A strong tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago is showing signs of developing in the E. Atlantic. Conditions will become somewhat

www.mysuncoast.com

Snip
A strong tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago is showing signs of developing in the E. Atlantic. Conditions will become somewhat favorable early next week to develop into a tropical depression or even storm as it heads toward the Caribbean. Both the EURO and the U.S. forecast model (GFS) are strengthening this system into a tropical storm or even a hurricane by late next week as it moves into the Central Caribbean sea.

 

[PayrollNerd]

It’s getting kinda messy out there…

Tracking the Tropics: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two forms, 2 other areas being monitored

There's a good chance that it could become Tropical Storm Bonnie prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Brief Wednesday update on two tropical disturbances, as I am not yet well enough to resume videos:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (#PTC2) continues to race westward through the Caribbean just north of Venezuela, currently close to Curaçao. There is not yet evidence of a closed circulation, which would make the system officially a tropical storm, but it is getting close. Formation of a tropical storm is likely as PTC2 passes near the coastline of Colombia and moves westward into Central America by Friday Evening, where NHC estimates it will have winds around 70 mph at landfall. Heavy rains will create the possibility for flash flooding and mudslides.

Invest #95L in the Gulf of Mexico does have a closed circulation, but remains very weak and disorganized. Dry air and vertical shear are keeping this system in check, and while slow development is possible before landfall in southern Texas on Thursday, the only impacts are expected to be locally heavy rainfall. Check weather.gov for details on impacts to your local area.

National Weather Service

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Storm Bonnie forms in Caribbean

As of 9:15 a.m. EDT, Bonnie was 230 miles east-southeast from Bluefields, Nicaragua. The storm has max sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving west at 20 mph

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Storm Colin forms over East Coast as 3rd named storm of Atlantic season

 

[anneg]

I was wondering whether we had a thread for the 2022 hurricane season, and here it is! Thanks, @PayrollNerd!

 

[Yesiamapirate]

I was wondering whether we had a thread for the 2022 hurricane season, and here it is! Thanks, @PayrollNerd!

I agree, @anneg! I do not live in a hurricane area but I am fascinated by the weather.
Little known fact, I went to college and wanted to be a weather lady! Radio, TV and film major with a meteorologist minor.
Changed directions my Junior year.

 

[anneg]

I agree, @anneg! I do not live in a hurricane area but I am fascinated by the weather.
Little known fact, I went to college and wanted to be a weather lady! Radio, TV and film major with a meteorologist minor.
Changed directions my Junior year.

Interesting! You may be interested in a new thread I just started on the extreme heat affecting Western Europe and the U.S. this summer:

Heat Waves in Western Europe, U.S., Summer 2022​

https://wapo.st/3aR9psb

I posted this link as a gift article, so it should be accessible (no paywall). There are interesting maps if you visit the page.

A historic and deadly heat wave has been scorching western Europe, killing hundreds in Spain and Portugal. Temperatures spiked to 115 degrees on the Iberian Peninsula amid bone-dry conditions, fueling wildfires and displacing thousands of people in France. The mercury topped 100 degrees (38 Celsius) in Britain on Monday and is expected to surge higher Tuesday.

For the first time, the U.K. Met Office has issued a red warning for heat, its most extreme alert. The warning, in effect through Tuesday, includes Birmingham, Oxford, Nottingham and London....

At the same time, another heat wave is brewing across the pond in the United States — one that produced a tie for Salt Lake City’s highest temperature Sunday and could bring readings as high as 113 degrees in Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday....

 

[Yesiamapirate]

Interesting! You may be interested in a new thread I just started on the extreme heat affecting Western Europe and the U.S. this summer:

Heat Waves in Western Europe, U.S., Summer 2022​

I tried to visit your new thread. My phone just says safari can’t find the link. I will try again tomorrow. Good idea for a thread.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Just in: NOAA forecasters maintain above-average hurricane season prediction for the Atlantic Basin, as the peak months are now underway.
Today, we released our *update* to the 2022 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason Outlook issued in May: https://bit.ly/AtlHurricaneSeasonUpdate2022

NOAA forecasters have updated their Atlantic #HurricaneSeason prediction to:
-- 14-20 named storms, of which 6-10 could become hurricanes -- including 3-5 “major” hurricanes.
The ongoing La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an active west African monsoon, and above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are all contributing factors to the above-average outcome forecast for this season.
For late-breaking hurricane watches and warnings this season:
Bookmark http://www.hurricanes.gov/

and http://www.weather.gov

Follow NOAA’s National Hurricane Center on Twitter at @NHC_Atlantic and NOAA's U.S. National Weather Service at @NWS
Visit Ready.gov (or Listo.gov) for tips on how to prepare for hurricane season