2021 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

Five-day tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center. The orange disturbance looks like it could cause problems for the NC coast, and the red one--who knows what it will do, but scary.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas
coastal plain near Houston.

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or
two a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central
Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.
Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form later this week while the system
moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
And now we have Rose. They need a longer list of names….

Tropical Storm Rose forms as the 17th Atlantic storm of 2021, continuing the busy tropical season
Tropical Storm Rose forms as the 17th Atlantic storm of 2021, continuing the busy tropical season - CNN

“This makes 2021 the third year to have reached at least 17 named storms by this point of the season in satellite era (1966 and beyond), according to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University. There are only four names left on the list for the Atlantic basin: Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.”
 
A change that may give us a busier end of hurricane season this year. It’s been really quiet over here on the west coast of FL.

My oldest was in Biloxi, MS this morning, about to go out to sea for 10 days, when a boat mate tested positive for Covid. Everyone was sent home. They’ll stay home for 3-5 days to watch for symptoms. Hopefully, head back out late next week. I’m hoping the weather holds in the GOM.


La Niña has arrived and will stick around. Here is what that means for the dry Southwest and US hurricanes
La Niña has arrived and will stick around. Here is what that means for the dry Southwest and US hurricanes - CNN
 
and that's a wrap.........

Atlantic hurricane season ends up as more costly than the record-breaking one in 2020 - CNN

The 2021 season became only the third in history to use all of the names on the rotating seasonal list (the previous years were 2020 and 2005).

We ended the season with 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). During an average year there would be 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This year met or exceeded each of those categories, and it was forecast to be that way. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
 

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