Update: Today’s search was called off because of the weather conditions.
Heavy fog and rain made conditions unsafe to search. The team is coordinating with North Slope Borough Search & Rescue for tomorrows search plan.
There is also no new news in terms of assets although, I had several different conversations with several people who are trying to get us more help. I would like to thank the members of the Stewart County Government and the State of Tennessee for your continued efforts and support.
I don't know about hills in the background. If you go to the OP, the pic of Steve Keel, there is NOTHING in the background, except tiny plants about 6 inches high. In this recent pic with the black dog in the foreground and the tent, there isn't a shred of vegetation to be found. I'm guessing what looks like closeby mountains are actually fog cover.
I still can't believe anyone would spend a lot of money, and choose that piece of land to spend their recreational time.
I don't know about hills in the background. If you go to the OP, the pic of Steve Keel, there is NOTHING in the background, except tiny plants about 6 inches high. In this recent pic with the black dog in the foreground and the tent, there isn't a shred of vegetation to be found. I'm guessing what looks like closeby mountains are actually fog cover.
I still can't believe anyone would spend a lot of money, and choose that piece of land to spend their recreational time.
I'm thinking this big tent is pitched near the road; this may explain why there's no vegetation at all. It also might be in a wash. Those look like vehicle tracks.
And a cooler for food? I think I wouldn't have food near my tent in a wilderness area.
And gosh, look at the trash on the ground in the foreground. Nasty.
I haven't seen any news from searchers today, except that snow had come to that area already a couple of days ago.
For me, my opinion only, there wasn't going to be good news after max one day. There were simply too many pieces that militated against survival, particularly because of the extremely high risk of hypothermia (a predator seems unlikely, according to locals). Even if you do everything "right", you can still get hypothermia in no time at all. I believe that's what happened here.
In this case, IMO, the odds of catastrophe were huge: mis-communication with the partner, the partners separating, the baggy (what look to be) cotton pants and other apparel, fickle weather, the reek of recently slaughtered caribou (even if they'd shot them several days before, and they also would have moved them to the cache spot), the outfit designed to blend into wilderness, the lack of basic survival pieces like the "10 essentials" that could be used for signaling and staying warm and dry, lack of tundra experience, remote location, no coordination with a local outfitter who would keep tabs on them, wet and cold environment....
There were so many ways to get in trouble (and so many that could have been anticipated and planned for to minimize their impact). At the same time, local SAR were not only maxxed out at this search, but because of their experience, knew that success was impossible: it is their job to triage likelihoods and prioritize the safety of their equipment, staff, and volunteers.
SAR in this area has an additional task that may have increased the likelihood they would have to make a firm decision about the odds: they serve as air ambulance for the local population. You can imagine they might have a higher likelihood in making a difference and saving a life when operating in that mode. It is their job to make these decisions. I find it disheartening that they are criticized for not being helpful enough, when they are doing their jobs and then some.
IMO , As someone else has stated, in the backcountry, "you put yourself in harm's way, and [sometimes] harm happens". If you misjudge the hazards of your adventure, you might luck out and survive or get a rescue, but it's not likely. The missing who are still missing are testimony; it's rare for the lost not to be searched for, very common not to be found.
The Denali (Alaska) NPS addressed this specifically with a very strong cautionary message just last year:
Rescue is not guaranteed, and your emergency plan should not be contingent upon the NPS. Rescuer safety will always be our first priority, and weather or lack of resources often preclude us from coming to help. The NPS policy is to only respond to immediate threats to life, limb, or eyesight. Anything that we deem falls outside these categories, we will leave you to figure out on your own, and this year we have already turned down rescue requests that don’t meet these criteria.
While I hold out hope that remains will be found before winter closes in, this seems increasingly unlikely as well. I trust the family will find peace.
It takes an hour and a half for the chopper just to get to the missing zone. That’s how “above and beyond” this is for North Slope SAR to offer. SAR is staking a lot on this being helpful. I hope they’re appreciated more for the risks they are taking than they have been.
Do we know what SK and his hunting partner were doing BEFORE he set off for the caribou cache? I mean, were they hunting? Lollygagging around the campfire? Packing up? Doing pushups?
Do we know what SK and his hunting partner were doing BEFORE he set off for the caribou cache? I mean, were they hunting? Lollygagging around the campfire? Packing up? Doing pushups?
The way I read things, he was just going to get some thing- meat?- for their next meal maybe?
"Keel’s hunting friend told his wife that he left the campsite to go get supplies at a location where they stored their caribou meat. He was never seen again."
"The day before he went missing, Steve Keel and his hunting partner were carrying heavy backpacks with caribou meat from the hunting spot back to their campsite. About half a mile to seven-tenths of a mile away from the camp, Steve Keel got tired, put the backpack down marking it with a walking stick in the ground and walked the rest of the way to the camp. The next day, the hunter went to retrieve the backpack and didn't come back."
The hunting partner says ^^^ that SK never got to the caribou. But it seems an unlikely assumption that this is relevant. All he had to do would be to get marginally near.
Also, he would have smelled like caribou from the kill, and it seems he was wearing caribou antlers. And his clothing might have resembled how caribou blend into the landscape. So, he wouldn’t have had to come anywhere near the kill to be a major target.
Recall, there are no showers in wilderness. The aroma of caribou kill would linger on you for days.
The way I read things, he was just going to get some thing- meat?- for their next meal maybe?
"Keel’s hunting friend told his wife that he left the campsite to go get supplies at a location where they stored their caribou meat. He was never seen again."
I think it's kinda odd how little we know. Even with all those people out there searching, we don't know much about the context or conditions when SK set off. I mean, supposing he'd been up hunting since the crack of dawn? In that case, he might be sweaty and tired. If you got chilly in that condition, it could be a worry.
I was reminded about the role of sweat in hypothermia today when I went hiking at 80 degrees. Sweating like a hog. Next thing I know, after taking a break for lunch, I was super chilled. That's just sweat, and I was wearing a synthetic, not cotton, so the sweat was getting more or less wicked off. If I had been somewhere more remote or higher (I was practically in town), I could have gotten into trouble if I didn't have another layer to toss on.
Hypothermia can happen so fast, and it doesn't have to be cold.
The way I read things, he was just going to get some thing- meat?- for their next meal maybe?
"Keel’s hunting friend told his wife that he left the campsite to go get supplies at a location where they stored their caribou meat. He was never seen again."
"The day before he went missing, Steve Keel and his hunting partner were carrying heavy backpacks with caribou meat from the hunting spot back to their campsite. About half a mile to seven-tenths of a mile away from the camp, Steve Keel got tired, put the backpack down marking it with a walking stick in the ground and walked the rest of the way to the camp. The next day, the hunter went to retrieve the backpack and didn't come back."
This is even weirder... So, much further than 1/4 mile? And 1/2 mile might be an underestimate, too, since they were tired? The cache was not in a stand of trees (as I imagined), but simply out there, marked with a stick. Not "stored" but simply plopped? And it was left there because SK was struggling with the load, not because they'd hung it in a tree or something. And they could have been so tired, they didn't get enough information about where they put it. Or maybe they simply didn't know how to determine the spot accurately so they could come back to it.
With this information, I can totally see now how this was not going to have a good ending. There was only a tiny chance of it ever succeeding, and all depended on luck.
Something like this:
I'm not sure how you'd ever see a stick sticking out in that tundra? You'd have to be right on it to see it, if then. I can see now how easy it would have been to get lost getting to the caribou. And you'd be crazed about losing your prize. That would have put you in a panic.... You'd get flooded with adrenaline. You'd forget everything outside your immediate goal. You'd be sweating like crazy (SK might have not been well, either, if he was struggling the day before), and your shirt is getting damp. The ground might be wet, too, with perhaps puddles everywhere. You might not care where your feet are going. Splash splash splash. Wet wicking up your pant legs, and maybe you're wearing cotton camo, and they envelop you with cold. Perhaps the wind picks up or a fog descends, making you colder and putting you in even more panic... And you're going in circles, which is what people do when they can't see where they're going (e.g. when they're blindfolded or it's dark).
I think it's kinda odd how little we know. Even with all those people out there searching, we don't know much about the context or conditions when SK set off. I mean, supposing he'd been up hunting since the crack of dawn? In that case, he might be sweaty and tired. If you got chilly in that condition, it could be a worry.
I was reminded about the role of sweat in hypothermia today when I went hiking at 80 degrees. Sweating like a hog. Next thing I know, after taking a break for lunch, I was super chilled. That's just sweat, and I was wearing a synthetic, not cotton, so the sweat was getting more or less wicked off. If I had been somewhere more remote or higher (I was practically in town), I could have gotten into trouble if I didn't have another layer to toss on.
Hypothermia can happen so fast, and it doesn't have to be cold.
I think hypothermia is a big possibility but it is a little weird to me that there
is no trace if they know where the vehicle, road, pack, and camp are... not sure if the quicksand areas are deep enough to swallow a person whole and it seems (?) he was backtracking over an area he and his partner had sucessfully walked through before, but it also seems concerning that the locals say that the area is dangerous and they seem to be just flying over it, not setting foot in it. IMO
I think hypothermia is a big possibility but it is a little weird to me that there
is no trace if they know where the vehicle, road, pack, and camp are... not sure if the quicksand areas are deep enough to swallow a person whole and it seems (?) he was backtracking over an area he and his partner had sucessfully walked through before, but it also seems concerning that the locals say that the area is dangerous and they seem to be just flying over it, not setting foot in it. IMO
The K-9 operator said it was too dangerous for her dogs.
I actually don't think quicksand can swallow you completely. While I'm on this topic, let me dig out some info for everyone on how to get out of quicksand.
You're hiking alone in the wilderness, lost in your thoughts, when suddenly you find yourself trapped in quicksand and sinking fast. Certain muddy death? Not quite. While quicksand isn't nearly as dangerous as it looks in the movies, it is...
www.wikihow.com
Do some additional reading around, not on blogs, but reputable outdoor magazines.
I think hypothermia is a big possibility but it is a little weird to me that there
is no trace if they know where the vehicle, road, pack, and camp are... not sure if the quicksand areas are deep enough to swallow a person whole and it seems (?) he was backtracking over an area he and his partner had sucessfully walked through before, but it also seems concerning that the locals say that the area is dangerous and they seem to be just flying over it, not setting foot in it. IMO
From the science of "lost person behavior", I can totally see this happening. It's not that rare! But also, this is an area with no landmarks, and if your compass isn't set right or you didn't know exactly how to use it, and you got in a panic because you couldn't find your prize...... And you couldn't find it, so you must have gone in the wrong direction, and oops, where was your hunting buddy waiting for you? Self talk can really mess you up, as can conviction that you're experienced and know what you're doing.... If you were convinced you were correct at your backtracking, via Dunning-Kruger, you can push away info that tells you anything different. Voilà, you're lost.
Also, if your footsteps were deep enough to follow, what's preventing you from accidentally following you and your buddy's footsteps that you left BEFORE you dropped off the carcass (e.g. while hunting or on the way back to camp), rather than after? You could come across them in your wanderings...
Example: People get turned around on the AT all the time. You can go south for miles by mistake when you want to be moving north. Things might look a bit familiar, but, after a while on the AT, everything looks same old, same old, so familiarity doesn't give you useful information. The tundra would be way worse in this sense.
The FB page, Search for Steve, has the best post I’ve ever seen about the difficulties of using tracker dogs in a search like this (most any search, really). It was written by a tracker dog owner.
The comment does a great job of explaining why a tracker dog is not helpful here. The reason is largely because of search area contamination. This has been an issue in other cases as well (the Dingley case comes to mind), and is an important reason why SAR doesn’t want non-SAR volunteers in a search site until they give the go ahead explicitly.
I’m not sure we’re allowed to post the “comment” here, but I encourage y’all to look it up!
www.facebook.com
