Allison Baden-Clay - GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD #45

[Thinking]

There is a call at 12.25 pm on the 20th of April to Brookfield Showground Maintenance, was the command post set up that early?

I guess they could have been discussing the possibility at that stage - good point, that is probably what this one is about.

 

[Zanzibar]

I dont think it was anything vastly complicated, Tim.. From, lets say, Allison was last seen alive, by Gerard, at 10pm , Thursday night, comfy watching the footy show in her walking gear, hair all done, after a nice chat about the planned sleepover of Olivia's kids taking place the next night, and the usual 15 civil chat about his horrendous sexual betrayal again and again sustained over many years, under the instruction of the counsellor, which goes well , according to Gerard, they immediately at the tick of the clock switch over to general chat, and him stepping on to the public stage at 7.15am Friday morning.

so. 10pm 10.30 pm. to 7.15am.

Gerard has to play time backwards from 7.15am. he is in fact doing it when he sends those texts to Allisons phone..starting around 6.30am I'm up... Kids are still asleep, Kids up. Making lunches, hope you slept well.. and so on. He is doing what he thinks is normal. Time is moving forward, Gerard is going backwards timewise. He is portraying a normal morning.

But he has been phoning Elaines phone, Olivias phone, Kate Rankins phone, Allisons phone, ...

My guess, its only a guess, is that something struck him as crucial around 5.30am.. some forced error , something he hasnt factored in, something about the TIME he is going to report Allison missing. Maybe he realised that he was the one who had to report her.. Perhaps he hoped someone else would ring the alarm bell, he would be at work, Mr Efficient-in-cufflinks, and be the worried frantic bloke...

Perhaps he realised that Allison was going to meet Kate Rankin earlier than he supposed, and she would be waiting for Allison much earlier than he expected anyone to be aware of Allisons non appearance.. I dont know. but its something like that.. a forced error...

Maybe something told to him in the 0417hrs call he received?

 

[marlywings]

Folks I've made a new thread & copied over Curiousasacat's analysis of GBC's phone records so it's easier to locate her post.


[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9140590#post9140590"]GBC's phone records - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

 

[Zanzibar]

Folks I've made a new thread & copied over Curiousasacat's analysis of GBC's phone records so it's easier to locate her post.


GBC's phone records - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Can we possibly include the analysis of ABC's and any other phone/Internet/ email analysis in there as well?

 

[Flinders]

So you have been told the evidence against him won't stand up in court??

I have't been told anything M. And if I had and my money was based outcome. Plant the seed so to speak.

 

[sosocurious]

An alibi would be considered crutial - who was going to say he had been snoring loudly in his bed all night alone.

Oh the kids quick lets get them home maybe it was shortly after 6am when they were told their mother had probably fallen down a hole.
Oh no the police are coming straight away - quick get the kids to school. Well debrief them later.

 

[DrWatson]

What is muddying everything is a lack of clear cause of death.Strangulation has not been completely ruled out, but is not convincing. No obvious head trauma, no broken bones...nothing. Decomposition was not helping the Coroner, but surely blunt head trauma with depressed fractures of the skull are easily determined. Very frustrating.

Yes - the lack of a clear cause of death at autopsy, due to the extensive decomposition, is a problem in itself. The most likely, and consistent with the findings, would be suffocation/smothering (as opposed to strangulation). The hyoid bone was intact, which is often (but not always) fractured in manual strangulation, either from in front or from behind. But suffocation wouldn't leave any telltale marks after that period exposed to the elements.

A hand over the mouth, while pinching the nose closed - easy peasy for somebody GBC's size. And who's to know that the "lightbulb" injury on his right hand isn't the marks produced by a row of teeth? We haven't seen any photos of that injury.... Maybe even chipped a tooth with a finger ring while he was at it - but I don't know if he wears a ring on his right hand...

And that is my conjecture only....

 

[marlywings]

Can we possibly include the analysis of ABC's and any other phone/Internet/ email analysis in there as well?

Sure we can...not a problem. Allison's phone records analysis...

[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9140614#post9140614"]Allison Baden Clay phone records - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]

 

[Saxons]

Yes - the lack of a clear cause of death at autopsy, due to the extensive decomposition, is a problem in itself. The most likely, and consistent with the findings, would be suffocation/smothering (as opposed to strangulation). The hyoid bone was intact, which is often (but not always) fractured in manual strangulation, either from in front or from behind. But suffocation wouldn't leave any telltale marks after that period exposed to the elements.

A hand over the mouth, while pinching the nose closed - easy peasy for somebody GBC's size. And who's to know that the "lightbulb" injury on his right hand isn't the marks produced by a row of teeth? We haven't seen any photos of that injury.... Maybe even chipped a tooth with a finger ring while he was at it - but I don't know if he wears a ring on his right hand...

And that is my conjecture only....

All agreed Doc. Smothering is the only plausible and likely method I can think of, yet I wondered whether there should have been evidence of bloodshot eyes to indicate this. Again decomposition will have hampered this evidence.

If we suppose he has applied considerable force with his right hand over her mouth to suffocate her (was he RH dominant?), then if she was able to bite into his hand causing the marks on his palm, then would we have expected to see bruising to her face caused by the force of his hand?

IMO only!

 

[Maigret]

All agreed Doc. Smothering is the only plausible and likely method I can think of, yet I wondered whether there should have been evidence of bloodshot eyes to indicate this. Again decomposition will have hampered this evidence.

If we suppose he has applied considerable force with his right hand over her mouth to suffocate her (was he RH dominant?), then if she was able to bite into his hand causing the marks on his palm, then would we have expected to see bruising to her face caused by the force of his hand?

IMO only!

The decomposition to her face was quite considerable apparently

 

[Saxons]

The decomposition to her face was quite considerable apparently

Yes and thats indicated on the autopsy result. Very frustrating.

So is it possible he has ABC on the ground outside, trying to stop her screaming for help, clamps his hand over her mouth (and obviously her nose if she was suffocated). ABC and GBC are fighting physically and its all gone out of control? - meanwhile TM is on his back pulling at him to get off?

(Although I am trying to imagine how that would produce the drag marks GBC had at the front of his chest/axilla region on the court photos??).

I just dont see him being clever enough to "pull off" premeditated murder except in the heat of the moment. Which I think is shown by the clumsy excuses he trots out. A murderer who had planned this for a while would have dreamt up better excuses than GBC's lame testimony. And doctor shopping the day after looking for justification for excessive razor burn is just ridiculous.

I think TM has "rolled over" and is about to testify against him at the trial as a prosecution witness. She was there, she saw it all - thats why she is being escorted to and from the court. Whcih is why she is looking longingly at him as if to say "Im sorry but what else can I do?" And he wont give her the time of day.

I think OW is hoping that TM will provide evidence that it was all a "horrible accident gone wrong". That is the "the truth will come out" theory she is pedalling.

ALL in my opinion only of course.

 

[Happygolucky]

Yes - the lack of a clear cause of death at autopsy, due to the extensive decomposition, is a problem in itself. The most likely, and consistent with the findings, would be suffocation/smothering (as opposed to strangulation). The hyoid bone was intact, which is often (but not always) fractured in manual strangulation, either from in front or from behind. But suffocation wouldn't leave any telltale marks after that period exposed to the elements.

A hand over the mouth, while pinching the nose closed - easy peasy for somebody GBC's size. And who's to know that the "lightbulb" injury on his right hand isn't the marks produced by a row of teeth? We haven't seen any photos of that injury.... Maybe even chipped a tooth with a finger ring while he was at it - but I don't know if he wears a ring on his right hand...

And that is my conjecture only.... [/QUI

I am sure this is where the defence will hone in on--in order for the prosecution to prove murder they will need a reasonable hypothesis of the cause of death. I was in court when the Dr Milne discussed his autopsy report. He was thorough and methodical in his answers and certainly would not be drawn into a cause of death. And IMO there will be a problem with suffocation because of the degree of decomposition makes it impossible to prove.

A lot of the questioning by Davis centred around Serataline (Zoloft) levels and its metabolite desmethyl sertraline. From my reading the level in the liver of this metabolite 31mg/kg is quite high (De Vane et al "Clinical Pharmocokinetics of Sertraline" Clinical Pharmocinetics, 2002 41(15) 1247-1266 which lists normal liver concentrations as 1.4-11mg/kg. I acknowledge an overdose by Seratraline not mixed with any other drug is almost unheard of but Davis was very keen to pursue this line of questioning. Davis was very keen to get Milne to name his references. I don't believe this is the last we hear about the levels of Sertraline. I have actually downloaded from a site I have access to a few of Milne's references on Sertraline (a couple are only abstracts unfortunately ) and will try to source the reference you gave a couple of weeks ago, mainly for my own interest as Davis was keen on it at the bail application hearing.

I actually re-read the autopsy report today. It makes very grim reading. Davis certainly highlights Allison's long term depression in her medical history and long term use of Sertraline. Despite giving a number of references and ranges he states there is insufficeint evidence to attirbute the cause of death to alcohol and/or sertaline. However he also concludes that it can't be excluded. And there is Davis's out. However remote, he may continue this line of questioning particularly if the metabolites levels are quite high according to some references. He did state at the committal that the alcholol levels often rise as a result of the decomposition and not much weight could be placed on those levels.

I do however, agree with you that suffocation is the most likely cause given all the circumstances that have come out since Gerards arrest.

However, it is interesting the other possibilites he does not exclude. Strangulation is a possibility if "a soft broad ligature was used. It seems like the Bonds pullover is a possibility for this. Drowning was difficult to find signs of because of the degree of decomposition but it is not excluded. He also gives injuries as a result of a fall from a height as a possibility, It seems it is more of a possibility if Allison hit the water. There could have been some movement of her body by the water and a fall could have led to her drowning.

 

[Trooper]

the reverse is equally true to a jury, though.. how did a nutritionally sound woman, in good physical health, appearing under her own steam at a hairdressing salon at 7pm, with plans for the next day well underway, last seen watching TV at 10.30 ( by one person currently on trial for her murder) and never, ever , seen alive again? and her body turning up 14 klms away from that couch in front of the TV at her home?

 

[sosocurious]

Can someone tell me the 000 transcript
The bit at the end it has end telephone conversation after GBC said Bye
and then
telephone conversation
info
End telephone conversation
Is that all one call.

 

[wewillgetyou]

Working on the 'KISS' principle I really don't think that TM was involved. I honestly think she is a wreck due to the situation she finds herself in. She imagined a life with GBC. She left her partner to be with him. I think she still loves GBC and it is going to take some time for to work through that this man who she dreamt of being with forever has murdered his wife. In my opinion this is why she was evasive and untruthful with the police as well. Trying not to get him into trouble.

 

[Trooper]

I agree with that theory, they'll.. I do not for one moment even consider that Toni was anywhere near Allison, or Allisons home or Anstead, or Kholo creek that night.

But I do honestly think that she and Gerard spent a lot of time feeding each others need for Allison to be removed from their lives.. I think this, because I cant think of another reason why Toni would be the prosecution witness. That to reveal this degree of premeditation, of the idea of murder, the concept, the metaphysical murder, the resolve, if you will ,to end this situation one way or another that Gerard held, has been her tradeoff.. She has bought her removal from some sort of verifiable, prosecutable involvement with the death at the expense of Gerards existence.

I'll happily take on board any other reason as to why she is the prosecution witness, that is truly only my opinion.. it is based on nothing more than I am stumped as to why she would be adhering and working for the people whos very profession it is to make sure Gerard is taken from her forever.

 

[Bazinga]

Why is TMc a prosecution witness? I think she was caught lying to police and was warned that she could be charged for those lies under oath. Told she better get a lawyer as she was in huge trouble. I'd say her lawyer has assessed the situation and given her some sort of reality check. "Your boyfriend is a suspect in the disappearance of his wife, you are the secret girlfriend so you are under suspicion too. You've now been lying to the police. The police can find out everything about you and him, how long youve been back on, where, when, phone calls, text messages etc. You'd be best to think of your poor kids, your poor mum, your job, the remnants of your reputation and agree to help the police any way you can. You have no life or future with this man and your plan should be not to get caught in his downfall. Up to you though!"

 

[wewillgetyou]

Bazinga, I agree totally !

 

[DrWatson]

A lot of the questioning by Davis centred around Serataline (Zoloft) levels and its metabolite desmethyl sertraline. From my reading the level in the liver of this metabolite 31mg/kg is quite high (De Vane et al "Clinical Pharmocokinetics of Sertraline" Clinical Pharmocinetics, 2002 41(15) 1247-1266 which lists normal liver concentrations as 1.4-11mg/kg. I acknowledge an overdose by Seratraline not mixed with any other drug is almost unheard of but Davis was very keen to pursue this line of questioning. Davis was very keen to get Milne to name his references. I don't believe this is the last we hear about the levels of Sertraline. I have actually downloaded from a site I have access to a few of Milne's references on Sertraline (a couple are only abstracts unfortunately ) and will try to source the reference you gave a couple of weeks ago, mainly for my own interest as Davis was keen on it at the bail application hearing.

I actually re-read the autopsy report today. It makes very grim reading. Davis certainly highlights Allison's long term depression in her medical history and long term use of Sertraline. Despite giving a number of references and ranges he states there is insufficeint evidence to attirbute the cause of death to alcohol and/or sertaline. However he also concludes that it can't be excluded. And there is Davis's out. However remote, he may continue this line of questioning particularly if the metabolites levels are quite high according to some references. He did state at the committal that the alcholol levels often rise as a result of the decomposition and not much weight could be placed on those levels.

Hi HGL. I think if you check what Dr Rob Hoskins said in his evidence during the second week of the committal, and also the toxicologist whose name escapes me at the moment, they both agreed with that paper I posted a few weeks ago about the problems with sertraline levels as measured in the liver, especially after 10 days post mortem.

The levels are increased between about 50-130 times in the liver, due to the first-pass principle (the drug passes through the liver after absorption from the stomach before it gets out into the general circulation). Then we have the problem of post mortem redistribution which occurs if the liver concentration is over 20times that of the peripheral blood concentration - which with sertraline it would be - well and truly over that.

I'm pretty sure that the reason they called Rob Hoskin to the stand again and questioned him about the sertraline levels (and the norsertraline, or desmethylsertraline) and also that toxicologist, was because those very recent references (from last November) showed that the concentrations as found were consistent with normal therapeutic doses. If Allison had taken her dose as usual that day, the liver concentrations 10 days post mortem would have been consistent with what was found.

That recent paper basically blew any Zoloft overdose theory out of the water, I think.

Nathan Milne who did the autopsy is a very cautious man, and all those statements he made, both in the report and in the witness box, about "could not exclude" this, that, or the other, is known as professional arse-covering. And of course with a highly decomposed body, and only liver blood samples for drug levels, he HAS to say that.

Milne was referring specifically to Allison's body. Hoskins and the toxicologist were referring to the science and the principles in general of the pharmacology and metabolism of sertraline, especially with the phenomenon of post mortem redistribution.

From my reading of the autopsy report, and not being in the witness stand putting my reputation on the line, I'd be a bit more forceful and say that Zoloft overdose is not only "highly improbable" but it was NOT the cause of death. That's sticking my neck out - but I'm pretty sure my neck's safe

But I'm not the one signing the autopsy report....

 

[Chief of Funtime]

Can someone tell me the 000 transcript
The bit at the end it has end telephone conversation after GBC said Bye
and then
telephone conversation
info
End telephone conversation
Is that all one call.

I think it sounds like whoever is tracing the call. I think it's what happens at 000