Ask Super Part 3

[wonderllama]

Were you ever employed by the Boulder Police Department LOL?

Long way to travel from Melbourne Murri.

You may jest that nothing is proven in this case beyond any kind of doubt, and we all know that, thus we default to probabilities based on the evidence we have.

You don't achieve very much by picking on RDI comments and claiming that we're guessing or misinterpreting when you are doing the exact same thing (in our opinions).

When all is said and done, all we have is probabilities in this case and in my opinion, the probability is that a Ramsey did it.

That ain't fact, that is a probability.
I might whip up a thread working out the actual maths for you.

 

[MurriFlower]

wonderllama;6112063
That ain't fact, that is a probability.
I might whip up a thread working out the actual maths for you.

Probability is just a theory, like any other in this case. Boy, if all of lifes problems could be worked out that way, just take a few numbers and mix and match, till you come up with an answer!! Now, if you want to take me to the Casino with your probability theories, that's fine, just make sure you are using your own money!!

 

[DeeDee249]

Probability is just a theory, like any other in this case. Boy, if all of lifes problems could be worked out that way, just take a few numbers and mix and match, till you come up with an answer!! Now, if you want to take me to the Casino with your probability theories, that's fine, just make sure you are using your own money!!

Hey! No counting cards allowed!

 

[MurriFlower]

Hey! No counting cards allowed!

No, I think you need to try your probability theories out on a game of chance! How about roulette or dice??

 

[wonderllama]

Umm....Probability is a theory...just like the Theory of Relativity or the Theory of Evolution.
I'm guessing you don't bet against either of those...and if you do, God help us all.

 

[MurriFlower]

Umm....Probability is a theory...just like the Theory of Relativity or the Theory of Evolution.
I'm guessing you don't bet against either of those...and if you do, God help us all.

Well, you're a braver man than me if you will bet on a theoretical principal of probability based on a single event. How does the probability theory hold up on a single roll of a dice?? Bet the house on it will you?

 

[BOESP]

Well, you're a braver man than me if you will bet on a theoretical principal of probability based on a single event. How does the probability theory hold up on a single roll of a dice?? Bet the house on it will you?

Probabilities aren't constructed on single events Murri.

 

[MurriFlower]

Probabilities aren't constructed on single events Murri.

Exactly. But we have only one murder. JBR.

 

[wonderllama]

One murder....lots of OTHER stuff surrounding that event.

 

[nobull]

Exactly. But we have only one murder. JBR.

One murder. BUT we also have: One ransom note. One skull fracture. One friend that is no longer. One brother, mother and father in the house. One paintbrush. One cord. The list goes on (and on and on.)

Probability actually works quite well.

 

[BOESP]

Exactly. But we have only one murder. JBR.

That one homicide can be compared to the paradigm established by probabilities.

 

[MurriFlower]

That one homicide can be compared to the paradigm established by probabilities.

Well guys, don't let my scepticism stop you. Go ahead calculate it, just make sure that you use only known facts and not the presumptions we see here constantly. Got a feeling I know what you're going to come up with though LOL.

 

[wonderllama]

Without attributing values to the facts, this is actually part of the reason the majority of people have ALREADY reached the conclusions they have.

You've got it back the front Murri....we've looked at the probabilities and THEN reached a position on this case. At least that's how I reached my position.

 

[MurriFlower]

Without attributing values to the facts, this is actually part of the reason the majority of people have ALREADY reached the conclusions they have.

You've got it back the front Murri....we've looked at the probabilities and THEN reached a position on this case. At least that's how I reached my position.

Bah, I'm disappointed. I thought you were going to show me some fancy 'rithmatic. All you've done is added 1+1.

Let's take a REAL look at the FACTS and attribute values to them and see what we come up with.

 

[wonderllama]

Your insincerity is poking out Murri.

 

[MurriFlower]

Your insincerity is poking out Murri.

Actually, I was serious. However, I can see it getting hyjacked and ending up in a shemozzle of RDI theories.

BUT, it could look like this.

time? PR makes a 911 call saying their daughter is missing and they found a RN.
time ? JR finds the body of his daughter in the wine cellar and carries her upstairs.
etc, etc

 

[joeskidbeck]

Dave, I have a question (maybe two). Have you ever read or heard any comments made by Mary Lacy concerning who authored the rn? If you have, never mind, because I know what they would have been. If you have not, don't you think it's kinda strange? It seems to me that she would have "cleared" the R's a lot sooner had she believed PR was not the author.

 

[SunnieRN]

Actually, I was serious. However, I can see it getting hyjacked and ending up in a shemozzle of RDI theories.

BUT, it could look like this.

time? PR makes a 911 call saying their daughter is missing and they found a RN.
time ? JR finds the body of his daughter in the wine cellar and carries her upstairs.
etc, etc

Which 'time' MF? The time he brought JonBenet upstairs, or the time he told JAR and his future son-in-law he found her body.

Bye the way, your 'better man' comment made me wonder. I thought you were female?

 

[wonderllama]

I thought you were female?

We Australian's are a strange and mysterious people Sunnie

 

[MurriFlower]

We Australian's are a strange and mysterious people Sunnie

As far as the rest of Australia is concerned, it's Victorians who are the strange ones LOL.