Australia AUSTRALIA - 4YO AUGUST (GUS) Missing from rural family home in Outback, Yunta, South Australia, 27th Sept 2025

[sapphire blue]

I'm just wondering the actual statistical odds of him coming upon a mineshaft hole 5.5 to 12 kilometers away from the homestead in any direction on a property so vast... can't wrap my head around it, in my opinion would be a truly near inconceivable occurrence, a very bad case of tragic bad luck for Gus.

The statically odds would be much higher than abduction from the property.

 

[musicaljoke]

I'm just wondering the actual statistical odds of him coming upon a mineshaft hole 5.5 to 12 kilometers away from the homestead in any direction on a property so vast... can't wrap my head around it, in my opinion would be a truly near inconceivable occurrence, a very bad case of tragic bad luck for Gus.

Indeed. I can't imagine that he could have found it, but appreciate the fact that investigators are checking.

 

[statt#1]

I'm just wondering the actual statistical odds of him coming upon a mineshaft hole 5.5 to 12 kilometers away from the homestead in any direction on a property so vast... can't wrap my head around it, in my opinion would be a truly near inconceivable occurrence, a very bad case of tragic bad luck for Gus.

Unless possibly he knew a particular mineshaft existed and knew exactly how to get there and out of curiosity or for some other reason went there to explore and accidently fell in.

 

[Warshawski]

Why do the police need to announce these searches ahead of time to the media? Is that normal?

What if there was foul play involved somehow, and announcing it just gives the perpetrator a heads up?

IMO it could also cause a perpetrator to panic and make a mistake, which I’m sure investigators would be on the lookout for.

Aside from anything else, I’m very happy to hear the announcement of another search as I’ve been getting so frustrated by the thought that nothing more was being done to find this little boy !

 

[essareem]

Without evidence of an abduction, believing that he was removed from the property by a human simply because he hasn't been found yet is much like saying, "I can't find my keys. I've looked everywhere and I can't find them. Someone must have stolen them."

You're right, in the sense that abduction theory is just speculation, but equating a child's vanishing with misplaced keys overlooks a fundamental asymmetry... keys are inanimate, easily overlooked in the fog of routine life, a cliche for a reason. A living child, however, isn't 'lost' in the same trivial sense

 

[Warshawski]

Isn't it weird that he left no scent trail for dogs?... or are small children less smelly than sweaty adults and harder to track?

I don’t know how much bone-fide tracking any dogs did. I’m pretty sure cadaver dogs weren’t brought in and there has been no mention of the actual Search / Sniffer dogs used, even though we’ve become familiar with a few of them over the years,

The weirdest thing for me is that the aboriginal tracker found nothing. Anyone with experience of a good aboriginal tracker will tell you how uniquely infallible their ability is.

JMO.

 

[musicaljoke]

You're right, in the sense that abduction theory is just speculation, but equating a child's vanishing with misplaced keys overlooks a fundamental asymmetry... keys are inanimate, easily overlooked in the fog of routine life, a cliche for a reason. A living child, however, isn't 'lost' in the same trivial sense

Of course not, but the assumption that a child, or a set of keys is stolen because they haven't been found is a similar explanation of something more complex.

 

[TMich6811]

Of course not, but the assumption that a child, or a set of keys is stolen because they haven't been found is a similar explanation of something more complex.

But kids do get stolen from properties, keys basically never do. I’m not sure the example works but I understand what you mean. Jumping to abduction because he hasn’t been found could be considered a leap when there are more statisticallly likely answers

Imo i don’t feel he was abducted given the location. I don’t know if he is on property but either way, I’m not sure if he continues to be missing because of wandering.

There are always a few key statements that stick with me in cases. In this one - we were told wandering isn’t something he does.

Kids are unpredictable but why does that statement matter to make known

 

[Ellery84]

Why do the police need to announce these searches ahead of time to the media? Is that normal?

What if there was foul play involved somehow, and announcing it just gives the perpetrator a heads up?

It gives the media time to get on a plane to Adelaide, drive up to Yunta, arrive in the vicinity of Oak Park and then get locked out of the search completely.

IMO

 

[Serononin]

I still believe that Gus wandered, but not far, and that he'll eventually be found quite close to home. I can see this becoming one of those cases where we're all scratching our heads wondering how he could possibly have been missed by the initial searches

 

[ChatteringBirds]

The weirdest thing for me is that the aboriginal tracker found nothing. Anyone with experience of a good aboriginal tracker will tell you how uniquely infallible their ability is.

Do you remember which day a tracker was there? I believe in their abilities, but would it matter how much experience they had searching for missing people or children in particular?

ETA: Found the DM article about it:

Aboriginal tracker who searched for Gus insists police will find him

The Aboriginal tracker tasked with helping find missing South Australian boy Gus Lamont makes a surprising revelation on the one-month anniversary of the four-year-old's disappearance.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[essareem]

The statically odds would be much higher than abduction from the property.

Hmm, this piqued my interest, so I had a look at some child abduction stats...

The USA's NISMART studies seem to have the most data that I can find. The NISMART-2 appears to be the most comprehensive cycle available - which estimates that of all "caretaker missing" episodes (about 1.3 million annually), roughly 9% involved family abductions and 3% nonfamily abductions—for a total of ~12% human agency cases. (Note: These are episode based estimates, not just police reports, so they capture unreported cases too.)

Family abductions (the bulk of the 12%) disproportionately affect kids under 6, who made up 44% of victims despite being only ~11-12% of all missing children overall. Nonfamily cases skew older (mostly teens), but the very young tilt the overall abduction rate upward in that demographic.

For unresolved cases after weeks/months... Most missing episodes resolve quickly (e.g. 46% of family abductions last <1 week, and ~99% of all runaways return within a year), so abductions loom larger in the lingering pool - 21% of family abductions go a month+, with 6% still unresolved at survey time, versus near zero for benign "lost / injured" cases. Among long-term recoveries (6+ months), runaways are 97%, meaning the remaining ~3% (abductions, etc.) represent a much higher abduction proportion than the overall 12%.

Sources:
NISMART Overview (PDF)
NISMART Highlights Bulletin (PDF)
NISMART Family Abductions Report (PDF)
NCMEC Long-Term Missing Analysis (Webpage)

Caretaker missing episodes = the caretaker did not know where the child was, became alarmed for at least an hour, and looked for the child.

These are interesting stats, but not 100% relevant in this case. If anyone else has previously done any research into stats that would fit this case, I'd love to hear it, I just don't have the time to go through it all.

As for the odds of "him coming upon a mineshaft hole 5.5 to 12 kilometers away from the homestead in any direction on a property so vast" as per @statt#1, I'm not smart enough for that, I think we'd need to call in the big guns, like @Total_C

But, I do think that sounds highly unlikely, UNLESS - unless he had previously been to the mineshaft with one of his family members, and become curious about it from that, which would make sense as he might remember how to get to it. However, I would think in that case, this hypothetical mineshaft would have been brought up by the family to police in the beginning. IMO.

 

[Serononin]

Do you remember which day a tracker was there? I believe in their abilities, but would it matter how much experience they had searching for missing people or children in particular?

The Telegraph reported about a tracker being brought in on 2nd Oct, which was day six: Access Restricted

 

[FromGermany1]

I still believe that Gus wandered, but not far, and that he'll eventually be found quite close to home. I can see this becoming one of those cases where we're all scratching our heads wondering how he could possibly have been missed by the initial searches

In case, this would happen, I would have suspicions and would ask: who put the little boy or his remains at that location, AFTER a search? Suspicious, as I am.

 

[essareem]

Locals' horrifying theory for what happened to missing boy Gus Lamont

When SA Police confirmed on Monday they were returning this week to the scene of Gus Lamont's disappearance for a fifth time, I had a sinking feeling, reports Karleigh Smith.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Paywalled, but paraphrasing:

It says that DM asked the police why they had chosen the new search area after two months, and when they had found out about the mines - police refused to comment.

Police also refused to comment about whether LiDAR technology had been used, but that a local confirmed its use.

Some of the mines might be outside Oak Park Station.

DM says that an aerial photo which shows the sand pile Gus had been playing on, also shows a trommel and a mine shaft right next to it (WHICH I NEVER NOTICED!)

I don't think I am allowed to post photos from paywalled articles, but I will find a different source.

Article names Josh's parents and town of residence.

Some other interesting tidbits but I don't think I am allowed to paraphrase too much of it

 

[essareem]

Locals' horrifying theory for what happened to missing boy Gus Lamont

When SA Police confirmed on Monday they were returning this week to the scene of Gus Lamont's disappearance for a fifth time, I had a sinking feeling, reports Karleigh Smith.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Paywalled, but paraphrasing:

It says that DM asked the police why they had chosen the new search area after two months, and when they had found out about the mines - police refused to comment.

Police also refused to comment about whether LiDAR technology had been used, but that a local confirmed its use.

Some of the mines might be outside Oak Park Station.

DM says that an aerial photo which shows the sand pile Gus had been playing on, also shows a trommel and a mine shaft right next to it (WHICH I NEVER NOTICED!)

I don't think I am allowed to post photos from paywalled articles, but I will find a different source.

Article names Josh's parents and town of residence.

Some other interesting tidbits but I don't think I am allowed to paraphrase too much of it

Haven't found a great photo but here is a screenshot from one of 7NEWS's videos:

Not 100% sure which bit is meant to be the mineshaft though. In any case, I'm sure it would have been thoroughly searched in the beginning.

 

[Megnut]

Haven't found a great photo but here is a screenshot from one of 7NEWS's videos:

View attachment 626857

Not 100% sure which bit is meant to be the mineshaft though. In any case, I'm sure it would have been thoroughly searched in the beginning.

Unless there was an opening that was ruled out for being too small for him to fit through, only to discover later that somehow he did.

Who could forget Baby Jessica?

JMO

 

[Megnut]

Still, by announcing searches, it sort of gives off foul play vibes. Like they're putting someone on notice.

But maybe they're just trying to pre-empt the zealous media circus. Because, if LE rolled up in force, unannounced, you can bet that the world would be a-twitter with rumors of arrest. This way LE shuts that down before the media can start it.

JMO

 

[Dotta]

Locals' horrifying theory for what happened to missing boy Gus Lamont

When SA Police confirmed on Monday they were returning this week to the scene of Gus Lamont's disappearance for a fifth time, I had a sinking feeling, reports Karleigh Smith.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Paywalled, but paraphrasing:

It says that DM asked the police why they had chosen the new search area after two months, and when they had found out about the mines - police refused to comment.

Police also refused to comment about whether LiDAR technology had been used, but that a local confirmed its use.

Some of the mines might be outside Oak Park Station.

DM says that an aerial photo which shows the sand pile Gus had been playing on, also shows a trommel and a mine shaft right next to it (WHICH I NEVER NOTICED!)

I don't think I am allowed to post photos from paywalled articles, but I will find a different source.

Article names Josh's parents and town of residence.

Some other interesting tidbits but I don't think I am allowed to paraphrase too much of it

This is horrific

According to the article above
Police have not revealed why they are now searching the mine shafts.

But,
locals suspect they may be acting on the results of infrared drone technology that was used during the initial searches.
At the time,
Police said it would take some time to analyse the results.

 

[RedHaus]

This is horrific

According to the article above
Police have not revealed why they are now searching the mine shafts.

But,
locals suspect they may be acting on the results of infrared drone technology that was used during the initial searches.
At the time,
Police said it would take some time to analyse the results.

This is my understanding as well...

...the current search is based on the drone images analyses done by LE experts.

In addition to the 'newly found' mines, I wonder if LE found suspicious ground disturbances amongst those images suggestive of a gravesite.

IMO