Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall, NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - #25

[crabstick]

"Fairfax Media understands a three-day search of bushland in early March was instigated after a witness reported seeing a vehicle drive down a fire trail about the time William disappeared. The search zone was 21 kilometres from where the toddler disappeared.
An extensive search south of Port Macquarie during March 2015 failed to shed any more light on William Tyrrell's disappearance."
AKA Longpoint trail

http://www.northerndailyleader.com....alleged-paedophile-ring-investigated/?cs=2452

 

[Bohemian]

Reading through old articles & this one mentions searching the forest trails for car parts. The first sentence implies they were looking for something specific where as the second sentence just sounds like they are searching just in case. Did we ever determine if anything was found?

"Superintendent Paul Fehon said the State Emergency Service's volunteers will walk the forest's trails as they search for part of a vehicle that may have become detached.
Teams of emergency services began the first of a two-day search of roadsides ‘‘in case something has been thrown’’, said NSW Police Rescue Sergeant John King."

http://www.portnews.com.au/story/25...h-for-missing-william-tyrell/?cs=256#slide=21

interesting...I remember this being mentioned previously but assumed it was more about a car part that had been 'dropped' so assumed it was to do with scrap metal or possibly even a washing machine part. This article definitely implies a part that has come off a particular car.....implying to me that they have a car they are searching which is suddenly missing a part. But then they also refer to something that has been thrown.....?? I wonder if they did find anything??

so was a pois car suddenly missing a hubcap? what else falls off cars?

I remembered the police looking for car parts, but hadn't heard anything since...
A side mirror? A windscreen wiper could be broken off?

If a car part went missing on a forest trail. You could presume, hub cap, wing mirror, muffler, aerial, bolts. Anything else prone to falling off on a track?

Does anyone remember who (DCI Jubelin?) and where (presser/MSM article/ACA/The Project?) the scale of the investigation was spoken of this past September? I seem to vaguely remember x numbers of POI, evidence and documents being referred to. I wonder if any car parts were found in bush searches and could now be held as evidence? I've searched for a link but can't find one. TIA.

 

[richieswan]

Where are the images from richie? Is that your artistry or is there a link?

My art (text and filter) over published photos of the lads:

GJ
http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...t/news-story/8ec7367f36aeaf80bfd2e9b3f4986455

AS
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/su...8f3055ae7ae0c5de-1476272022&memtype=anonymous

Quotes from presser
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154088829661185&id=218519706184

 

[richieswan]

Does anyone remember who (DCI Jubelin?) and where (presser/MSM article/ACA/The Project?) the scale of the investigation was spoken of this past September? I seem to vaguely remember x numbers of POI, evidence and documents being referred to. I wonder if any car parts were found in bush searches and could now be held as evidence? I've searched for a link but can't find one. TIA.

Yes. DCI Jubes in the presser. I watched it again today

 

[Bohemian]

Quotes from the million dollar press conference. Pretty clear they know what's going on....MOO

NSWPOL fanzine? Call the missus and I'll put some sausage rolls in the oven...

 

[Bohemian]

Yes. DCI Jubes in the presser. I watched it again today

Thanks chookie x

btw the SM link to the presser wasn't working for me but it's also uploaded to your youtube channel (in case anyone has the same problem):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f-qtC4ueQqc

 

[Deleted member 102539]

If a car part went missing on a forest trail. You could presume, hub cap, wing mirror, muffler, aerial, bolts. Anything else prone to falling off on a track?

...... license plate?

 

[Warshawski]

BBM

It appears that Gary Jubelin did not know about Bruce Morecombe's offer at the time.

'Detective Inspector Gary Jubelin, who took over the case in February, said he was not aware of Mr Morcombe’s offer and would follow it up.'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...s/news-story/3f72de598e8911b15a852140629a0e9c

and OMG .. I can only ponder over the apparent disconnect . .FFS.. ...and for sure I could so easily go into one of my usual dialogues, however, on this occasion, I will continue to ponder and question privately how this disconnect could happen on such a high profile situation, with an offering by such a high profile person.

 

[Makara]

My art (text and filter) over published photos of the lads:

GJ
http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...t/news-story/8ec7367f36aeaf80bfd2e9b3f4986455

AS
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/su...8f3055ae7ae0c5de-1476272022&memtype=anonymous

Quotes from presser
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154088829661185&id=218519706184

Topaz Labs?

 

[koios]

Albeit police have a thousands times the information too. We are hamstrung to some degree on info, but also hamstrung by our ability to drill down information objectively that may swim into the realms of a DOCs court suppression order.

But sometimes WS forum users go into the micro which helps. A totally different aspect.

It's difficult for amateur sleuthers to help with the abduction theory because we have probably less than 0.1% of the information that Det Jubelin has. I tried, identified both connected groups of people, followed all sorts of lines and links, tried identifying the 2 parked cars, but realised it was impossible due to lack of released information. The possibility of undiscovered accidental mishap is however much easier to research from an armchair, thanks in large part to the mapping and image resources of SIXmaps and google, and good footage of the property by 60minutes. I think there is a case for going back to square one, which is the moment WT walked out of sight of the deck around a corner of the house, without any assumptions.

 

[Bohemian]

...... license plate?

Dang...you beat me to it. That was my last thought before drifting off to sleep last night. Good thinking 99.

 

[richieswan]

Topaz Labs?

Prisma
Free mobile app

Then assembled with text in Keynote app

 

[Bohemian]

It's difficult for amateur sleuthers to help with the abduction theory because we have probably less than 0.1% of the information that Det Jubelin has. I tried, identified both connected groups of people, followed all sorts of lines and links, tried identifying the 2 parked cars, but realised it was impossible due to lack of released information. The possibility of undiscovered accidental mishap is however much easier to research from an armchair, thanks in large part to the mapping and image resources of SIXmaps and google, and good footage of the property by 60minutes. I think there is a case for going back to square one, which is the moment WT walked out of sight of the deck around a corner of the house, without any assumptions.

The following interview with Supt Paul Fehon of Port Macquarie LAC may be useful in determining if police held any initial assumptions regarding William's disappearance; other than those of him becoming lost in the bush or meeting with an accidental death:

https://m.soundcloud.com/janine-graham-3

Also, it is worth reviewing every verbatim quote attributed to investigators and William's family and their spokespersons contained in every MSM article and AV recording that has been posted in William's forum, commencing from Thread #1:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...illiam-Tyrell-3yrs-Kendall-NSW-12th-Sept-2014

and in William's Media Timeline sub-forum:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ELINE-*NO-DISCUSSION*&p=12113810#post12113810

Personally, the quasi-investigative process I've followed (with obvious constraints) whilst researching William's disappearance follows the 'feedback loop' contained in the box on p. 168 of this journal article:

Terry Goldsworthy. (2009) "The criminal investigator" Australian police journal, 63 (4), 156-163. (.PDF 587 KB)

http://epublications.bond.edu.au/hss_pubs/437

 

[koios]

The following interview with Supt Paul Fehon of Port Macquarie LAC may be useful in determining if police held any initial assumptions regarding William's disappearance; other than those of him becoming lost in the bush or meeting with an accidental death:

https://m.soundcloud.com/janine-graham-3

Also, it is worth reviewing every verbatim quote attributed to investigators and William's family and their spokespersons contained in every MSM article and AV recording that has been posted in William's forum, commencing from Thread #1:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...illiam-Tyrell-3yrs-Kendall-NSW-12th-Sept-2014

and in William's Media Timeline sub-forum:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...ELINE-*NO-DISCUSSION*&p=12113810#post12113810

Personally, the quasi-investigative process I've followed (with obvious constraints) whilst researching William's disappearance follows the 'feedback loop' contained in the box on p. 168 of this journal article:

Terry Goldsworthy. (2009) "The criminal investigator" Australian police journal, 63 (4), 156-163. (.PDF 587 KB)

http://epublications.bond.edu.au/hss_pubs/437

That is a good flow diagram on page 168 and I'm all in favour of feedback loops. However it is inevitably a generalised diagram, and I notice its starting point, its first word, is "crime". That is not the starting point in the WT case, because when the first officer arrived, and later when the first detective arrived, it was unknown whether or not a crime had been committed, for example neighbouring gardens and bush were being searched on the hypothesis of wandering without any crime having happened. So in the WT case and some other missing child cases where there is no direct and immediate evidence that a crime has been committed, there is an extra box at the beginning of the diagram labelled "search". Only after that box has been completed, can an assumption of possible "crime" be made, and the p168 diagram begun. And just my opinion, but if the main feedback loop does not after months or years lead to the "target" (almost solved) box, there may even be a case for having a additional and longer feedback route which goes all the way back to "search".

 

[crabstick]

Nah, the problem is, we are not allowed to talk about it under a court suppression order. So we are not allowed to talk about it.

We can talk about misadventure all we want.

It's difficult for amateur sleuthers to help with the abduction theory because we have probably less than 0.1% of the information that Det Jubelin has. I tried, identified both connected groups of people, followed all sorts of lines and links, tried identifying the 2 parked cars, but realised it was impossible due to lack of released information. The possibility of undiscovered accidental mishap is however much easier to research from an armchair, thanks in large part to the mapping and image resources of SIXmaps and google, and good footage of the property by 60minutes. I think there is a case for going back to square one, which is the moment WT walked out of sight of the deck around a corner of the house, without any assumptions.

 

[Bohemian]

That is a good flow diagram on page 168 and I'm all in favour of feedback loops. However it is inevitably a generalised diagram, and I notice its starting point, its first word, is "crime". That is not the starting point in the WT case, because when the first officer arrived, and later when the first detective arrived, it was unknown whether or not a crime had been committed, for example neighbouring gardens and bush were being searched on the hypothesis of wandering without any crime having happened. So in the WT case and some other missing child cases where there is no direct and immediate evidence that a crime has been committed, there is an extra box at the beginning of the diagram labelled "search". Only after that box has been completed, can an assumption of possible "crime" be made, and the p168 diagram begun. And just my opinion, but if the main feedback loop does not after months or years lead to the "target" (almost solved) box, there may even be a case for having a additional and longer feedback route which goes all the way back to "search".

Agreed, maybe I should have posted '(with obvious constraints and modifications)'. Given the numerous acounts of the number of searches which were conducted; particularly within an area of 1.5 km over seven days, I think 'Search' would have been their starting point, along with 'Search Again' during the initial phases of the investigation into William's disappearance.

AFAIK a number of parallel investigations have been underway consequent to the Missing Persons report, which lead to the formation of Strike Force Rosann.

A number of Risk Assessments have been performed over the course of the investigations into William's disappearance IIRC. The following publications should provide a starting point to understanding this concept in relation to Missing Persons:

https://www.missingpersons.gov.au/find-out-more-about-missing-persons/research

I am not dissuading you from your own investigation into William's disappearance although I doubt if I can be of any assistance. My limited expertise is in the biological sciences and not engineering.

 

[crabstick]

Nah, the problem is, we are not allowed to theorise about it under a court suppression order. So we are not allowed to talk about it. And we cant tell you if we have a theory about something and cant tell you about it, because that would be rude.

We can talk about misadventure all we want.

It's difficult for amateur sleuthers to help with the abduction theory because we have probably less than 0.1% of the information that Det Jubelin has. I tried, identified both connected groups of people, followed all sorts of lines and links, tried identifying the 2 parked cars, but realised it was impossible due to lack of released information. The possibility of undiscovered accidental mishap is however much easier to research from an armchair, thanks in large part to the mapping and image resources of SIXmaps and google, and good footage of the property by 60minutes. I think there is a case for going back to square one, which is the moment WT walked out of sight of the deck around a corner of the house, without any assumptions.

 

[koios]

Nah, the problem is, we are not allowed to theorise about it under a court suppression order. So we are not allowed to talk about it. And we cant tell you if we have a theory about something and cant tell you about it, because that would be rude.

We can talk about misadventure all we want.

If it was opportunistic abduction by a stranger, or if it was undiscovered accident, any complicated family history would be irrelevant.

 

[Bohemian]

If it was opportunistic abduction by a stranger, or if it was undiscovered accident, any complicated family history would be irrelevant.

One the other hand if William's was not a stereotypical kidnapping, ie; his was an opportunistic abduction by an 'acquaintance', his complicated family history may not be entirely irrelevant.

 

[bearbear]

it doesnt seem like abduction was the first thing to spring to mind in the first days, so on gut feeling after arriving at the scene and talking to parents that wasnt assumed?
sat 13 september 2014......

Sat, 6.45pm: Police have said that, while it is possible William Tyrell was abducted, they are treating the investigation as a search for a lost little boy
http://www.camdencourier.com.au/sto...d-search-for-william-tyrell-continues/?cs=704