RS&BBM
I join many others here who are very troubled by the timeline, the most obvious being the apparent 18 hour climb, from 6:45am until 12:35am when TP supposedly called for help; and for TP, a 21 hour climb as he reached the hut by 3:30am.
What really makes this timelime troubling is his claim that it went somewhat okay.
Cause like realistically, that 6:45-13:30 for Kals-Fruhs is pretty decent timing for Winter. Good one but plausible.
But then we have this:
Maybe they havent left the Breakfast spot at 13:30 but rested for a bit, maybe 15 mins, maybe 20.
That part of route in green circle is the distance they made till 18:10.
So either they started at 13:30 - and it took them 4 hours 40 minutes.
Or they started even later, at maybe 13:50 - and it took them about 4 hours 20 minutes.
Star is where the very characteristic and unique part of the route is. Like youre not gonna mistake it for anything else even if visibility is less than 1m.
Judging by their later progress - no way they got to that spot before sundown.
So what was he doing exactly then? Nevermind timing. NO timing justifies going up anywhere "up" as they havent passed that spot at 15:00 with sundown at 16:49. And even that its stretched as hell.
Ive tried to understand that but at the end it just doesnt matter. They could be at Fruh at 11:00 AM or even 9:00AM (as they should) - it would still be against any voice of reason to keep going and not call for help as they havent got to the star at 14:00. 15:00 at the absolute worst.
Like no matter which way you theorize that Fruh timing may be off - if they were there much earlier and route was so bad it took them forever to climb THEY SHOULD TRY TO TURN BACK OR CALL FOR HELP. If they were there much later, THEY SHOULD TRY TO TURN BACK OR CALL FOR HELP.
We (and LE, prosecutors) can document the locations and progress of TP and KG at night, using their head lamps that are seen on the four different CCTV cameras that point towards Grossglockner. But we have no objective verification of their daytime climb.
So could anything in TP's timeline told to LE be false?
Yes of course it could.
Lights seem to support his timeline when they could support it.
Did they start later than 6:45am? Other than their phones' or watches' GPS records, what can prove that? Did they reach the Breakfast spot (the Go / No-Go point on that route) later than 1:30pm?
Surveillance in Kals can verify that.
I tried to find a car that showed up at any parking there sometime around 6:30, some do. LE should have access to better surveillance & they know where exactly that car was parked.
Or, could TP have deceived KG as to how much farther they had to go from the Breakfast Spot before to the summit, or before nightfall?
Absolutely. 100% yes.
He wouldnt deceive me. Now. As I stared so much at these rocks and pics and vids. No way he would convince me that were almost at the summit as we would be at 3650m.
But like bit over a week ago most likely yes. And even then I was doing it obsessively for hours. Still kept getting lost at times while looking at the pics. Doing so from a comfy chair.
I cant imagine Kerstin analysing everything so much to be able to tell. While climbing youre not able to tell.
... unless you have that thing that I forgot how its called that tells you on what height you currently are. But I doubt she had that. No need for it with climbs she did before.
Could TP have left KG earlier than 2:00am
Yes.
per your analysis that it would almost be near impossible to scale the last 55m in 20 minutes?
For a pretty decent, moderately experienced climber... after that whole ordeal - near impossible.
For very decent, very experienced climber who knows that route and has full mental capacity to think what hes doing - possible.
He's lying. He's 100% lying while trying to paint yourself as oh, just slightly more experienced than Kerstin. But just the fact that he did it and survived that proves that he's lying.
If it took him longer than that - he's lying about the timeline.
If he did it in the time he claims he did it - he's as you said sometime earlier, a BEAST of an alpinist and he wasnt confused, frozen, exhausted or unable to make appropriate decisions. Cause if he was, he would die there.
And they know that exactly cause they had rescuers climbig that in same circumstances as he did + daylight. And they werent doing it alone.
Could KG have perished earlier than 2am? earlier than 12:35am? and certainly earlier than then when "last sign of life" was "seen" from a distance? Per an OP, could TP have deceived CCTV with the headlamps - leave two behind to appear as one?.
I dont think she was dead at 12:35.
Messing with headlamps - I cant tell. Hard to get a grasp on something so strange.
I would say no, cause from where could he get that knowledge when to mess with the lamps? People are not climbing Gross after dark. All that clicking found me a few climbers who were bit late and did last parts of descend after dark. He'd have to do some serious next level analysis to pull something like that off - with no guarantee that another heli wont show up randomly as it once did. Unless he did that before and watched himself on cctv. But even then that's too much sophistication with not much to gain.
But I just can't get past that we have time stamps of when TP's headlamp appeared heading down the slope towards the hut.
There are two or three time stamps from his descent.
And it kinda fits his timeline, but thats beast of a climber timeline.
And that timeline still could be off, theoretically.
But if he had fully functioning garmin watch on, they know exactly when he went back to climbing.
Did TP lie about anything re: the timeline to LE or to KG?
100% yes to both.
Kerstin would have to completely lose her mind to keep going while knowing how much time its gonna take. Possible, of course. But only more incriminating for him if she did.
Cause either she didnt lose her mind and consciously "urged him to go" as he claims... but oh wait, how did she end up there WITH her splitboard still on if she was thinking clearly?
Or she wasnt, and he did nothing to help her. Not only barely tried to save her but kept making sure she will most likely die there.
So - which one of the two?
Third option of him being unable to think clearly got ruled out by Thomas himself cause he climbed up and descended unharmed.
And hes lying to LE cause he claims that he hasnt tried to alert the heli cause they were still able to climb. Long list of options here with timelines that vary all over the place - none of which is gonna support the claim that this expedition appeared okay timewise at literally any point of it.
Seriously, none. So, to the very least he's lying about that.