AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #11

[Isabelle]

I can't imagine how the parents continue on. They must be living in a state of suspended animation, suspended on the day Isa went missing. I know what it is like to experience the death of a child, but not knowing is a whole other thing. Good grief, the not knowing must be a living hell!

 

[Ransom]

And also managed not to get picked up on any of the several cameras in the area...so did they know where they all were? Carrying a child of six is not something one can do furtively, IMO...one would stand out. Carrying her over a fence? Into an alley? Wherever he went...he managed to not be picked up by cameras or witnesses, I guess, or LE would know for sure that they have a kidnapper on the loose...JMO...just too much points to someone familiar with the home, the layout, the neighborhood, the whole scene...

I don't know IF someone wasn't picked up on any camera. LE hasn't said and won't unless they can ID the person on those grainy videos. OR, like in Samantha Koenig case, that had a video but have never released it.:moo:

 

[Isabelle]

And also managed not to get picked up on any of the several cameras in the area...so did they know where they all were? Carrying a child of six is not something one can do furtively, IMO...one would stand out. Carrying her over a fence? Into an alley? Wherever he went...he managed to not be picked up by cameras or witnesses, I guess, or LE would know for sure that they have a kidnapper on the loose...JMO...just too much points to someone familiar with the home, the layout, the neighborhood, the whole scene...

Could be someone who was experienced or made themselves knowledgeable by studying other cases. How horrifying! It was a sad day when I had to tell my granddaughter if she sees a stranger in the house to scream like crazy and if someone tries to touch her in a store or anywhere, to do the same. What a way to live as a child!

 

[BrownRice]

So whoever did this, according to LE, covered up and did an adequate job knowing where Le would look for evidence. That is pretty compelling. That also tells me it is not a crazed criminal but a calculated one.

To me it sounds like it is not a stranger. A stranger would not need to cover up much, right? Just take the kid and flee.

 

[mck16]

I don't think it is suspecting them so much as wishing LE would at least indicate in some way that they believe this was done by an outsider, which they have not done, or give the parents some kind of benefit of the doubt, which they haven't really done...they have never called them victims, as far as I know, they have repeated that everyone "including the parents" are POI's whenever asked, and just seem to leave it out there that the parents are definitely not cleared.

I don't believe either one is involved...I DO believe it was someone who has been in their home. And I think there may be something, unrelated to Isabel, that the Dad is hiding, but that is just a feeling.

JMO

I feel as if LE had any evidence that the parents were involved there would have been an arrest. I don't believe they would have asked border patrol to keep an eye out either. I don't believe they would still be saying they are looking for a live Isa. I think they would detain them as quickly as possible. The border is not far away and they could easily leave the country. Just random thoughts because I really don't know. jmo

 

[cluciano63]

As far as the lack of searching, and comparing it with Kyron's case as someone did earlier...this is a far more urban area than where Kyron disappeared...it would be much harder not only to hide a body but to decide where to start searching. I think if Isabel was within the city proper, and not alive, there is a good chance she would have been found by now.

Am wondering what a group like TES would even suggest...they usually like to have a specific area recommended by LE to begin searching...

JMO

 

[cluciano63]

I feel as if LE had any evidence that the parents were involved there would have been an arrest. I don't believe they would have asked border patrol to keep an eye out either. I don't believe they would still be saying they are looking for a live Isa. I think they would detain them as quickly as possible. The border is not far away and they could easily leave the country. Just random thoughts because I really don't know. jmo

Police in Maine have made it pretty clear they do not believe Justin (the father) about Ayla being taken in the night, but there seems to be little they can do about it. Not to compare him to these parents at all...but the situation is similar and LE need more than suspicions and need to consider that she could be alive, even for years, until found. That is just the way it is.
JMO

ETA: And look at Haleigh C.'s case-clearly LE does not believe any of the POI's are telling the truth, yet after 3 years, no one has been arrested or charged.

 

[Zuckerschnecke]

So whoever did this, according to LE, covered up and did an adequate job knowing where Le would look for evidence. That is pretty compelling. That also tells me it is not a crazed criminal but a calculated one.

I found his statement very odd. I find it to be somewhat directed at the perp IMO. Either throwing them off in a somewhat ironic sense OR the simple truth is that there is no evidence because there was no kidnapping.

Please, it's only a thought, fellow sleuthers. I do think this statement is directed toward the person responsible though.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

See, I feel the exact opposite. I think Sergio's emotions and responses are more believable and that the mother's seem very contrived and fake.

I have reasons to dislike both parents. As an artist, Sergio is probably freer with his emotions, but methinks the dad talks too much, using plenty of flowery words and phrases, but there is very little substance in any of his "speeches". Sergio also does some fancy-dancing with the answers that he provides to very specific questions.

Becky is very controlled and also seems very controlling. I was taken aback by her aggressive comment about "bringing it on" or whatever it was that she said in regard to public criticism of her and her family. I get the feeling that Becky likes to be "in charge" and that she expects everyone to do her bidding. I'm finding it increasingly difficult to sympathize with Isabel's parents. :moo:

 

[GutFeeling!]

I am so sorry that happened to you!! What an awful situation!

The way I look at it, perhaps if the parents did get to the media right away, maybe Isa would have been found. They may have lost a week of precious time.I don't know how I would react if my child went missing, but I don't believe I would hide behind closed doors for a week. Time is precious and the sense of urgency would be there for me. I'd need to do something to find my child.

BBM and I am just catching up.

I just can't even begin to agree with that statement, and I would certainly hope that America has not become the country that won't act unless people do things just to please others.

The police conducted immediate searches for this child and still continue, even if there are less officers actually working the case.

What did their finally appearing on television achieve? Did it make the search go harder and faster? No. All it did was give people the chance to critisize every single eye blink/closure, every hand movement, every single action they made.

They were doing something to help find their child. They were cooperating with the police (there has never been a doubt there, the police have always said they have been cooperating). they were doing as they were told to by people far more experienced in this field than you or I. Not everyone is a ML or an Anthony ... and when they are they become media .


Looking back, if you are familar with Caylee's case, what did they achieve by facing the media?
They lost their grand daughter and then went on to be blamed in a court of law and watch the killer walk away free.

You do what they want and need to do. Looking back they may well have regrets, in reality you and I will have moved on to the next child taken, murdered, abused. Some of us will put little reminders up remembering Isabel - others will just move on. The Celis family won't have that option - ever! Even if she comes home today, their life will never ever be the same.

 

[mck16]

Police in Maine have made it pretty clear they do not believe Justin (the father) about Ayla being taken in the night, but there seems to be little they can do about it. Not to compare him to these parents at all...but the situation is similar and LE need more than suspicions and need to consider that she could be alive, even for years, until found. That is just the way it is.
JMO

ETA: And look at Haleigh C.'s case-clearly LE does not believe any of the POI's are telling the truth, yet after 3 years, no one has been arrested or charged.

Isn't this the case where they found her blood in the basement? And the week or so before she had a broken arm? And also the parents were divorced or separated. There is no history in this family of anything like that. jmo

 

[Deleted member 718]

So whoever did this, according to LE, covered up and did an adequate job knowing where Le would look for evidence. That is pretty compelling. That also tells me it is not a crazed criminal but a calculated one.

So probably not someone who has multiple DUIs because that shows risk-taking behavior?

It would be someone who doesn't stand out and fits into different surroundings. Like a trusted person in the community: the paper boy, the cable guy, the guy at the grocery store, the coach, etc. But someone who comes into contact with little kids because Isa is still dependent on her parents for outings. She goes to school, ball games, and church. Any opinions?

ETA: actually it could be someone with multiple DUIs. If that person had fantasies and previously used alcohol to self-medicate, then stopped drinking, he may be unable to resist his 'urges' now.

 

[cluciano63]

Isn't this the case where they found her blood in the basement? And the week or so before she had a broken arm? And also the parents were divorced or separated. There is no history in this family of anything like that. jmo

I know, I said I am NOT comparing the adults in the case...just the situation, child vanishes from home. Also saying it takes more than suspicions to arrest anyone...in Ayla's case, yes they have blood and still can't seem to make a move...JMO

 

[mck16]

So probably not someone who has multiple DUIs because that shows risk-taking behavior?

It would be someone who doesn't stand out and fits into different surroundings. Like a trusted person in the community: the paper boy, the cable guy, the guy at the grocery store, the coach, etc. But someone who comes into contact with little kids because Isa is still dependent on her parents for outings. She goes to school, ball games, and church. Any opinions?

Does she take dancing lessons, tumbling, etc.? I hate to admit it but I think the baseball park is a good place to investigate and watch. jmo

 

[carole]

BBM and I am just catching up.

I just can't even begin to agree with that statement, and I would certainly hope that America has not become the country that won't act unless people do things just to please others.

The police conducted immediate searches for this child and still continue, even if there are less officers actually working the case.

What did their finally appearing on television achieve? Did it make the search go harder and faster? No. All it did was give people the chance to critisize every single eye blink/closure, every hand movement, every single action they made.

They were doing something to help find their child. They were cooperating with the police (there has never been a doubt there, the police have always said they have been cooperating). they were doing as they were told to by people far more experienced in this field than you or I. Not everyone is a ML or an Anthony ... and when they are they become media .


Looking back, if you are familar with Caylee's case, what did they achieve by facing the media?
They lost their grand daughter and then went on to be blamed in a court of law and watch the killer walk away free.

You do what they want and need to do. Looking back they may well have regrets, in reality you and I will have moved on to the next child taken, murdered, abused. Some of us will put little reminders up remembering Isabel - others will just move on. The Celis family won't have that option - ever! Even if she comes home today, their life will never ever be the same.

BBM

Go back and study the police press conferences. LE (people far more experienced in this field than you or I - that you speak of in your post) were VERY VERY vocal about wanting the parents to come forward and speak to the media. LE seemed not to understand the parents' reluctance to speak out. They made it clear they had NEVER asked the parents to avoid the media.

 

[Donjeta]

To me it sounds like it is not a stranger. A stranger would not need to cover up much, right? Just take the kid and flee.

If "adequate job covering up" means wiping surfaces to remove fingerprints and staging stuff it would take some time and if I was a stranger I would rather just wear gloves and not stay to clean up after myself or tinker with anything any longer than I have to. Someone could wake up.

 

[Crosby87]

I thought only women would do such things. I've never heard of a man abducting a child cause he had strong wish to have a child of his own. Have there ever been such cases in the past?


That aside, I wanted to say something about the eye contact thing (which was also noticed with Sierra Lamar's mother). Today I saw on tv a police officer, he was explaining how he managed a situation where a man took hostages, he was pretty much the hero. I observed him and he never once looked up, to the tv host or the the camera. He always seemed to be looking at the floor, obviously he was not lying or anything. So it's hard to judge people feelings on that. I'm guilty of that too when I don't feel comfortable with certain conversations even if I didn't do anything bad.

Sometimes I have correct and clear impression of people, sometimes I really can't decide. That's the case with Isa's parents, if I have to go with my gut feeling, I feel nothing bad. It could be that Sergio has an idea of what happened and has to keep it for himself.

Sergio and Becky don't know for certain if Isa is alive so this could be why it is so difficult for them to face the crowd during their interviews. They have less to fear when they go on a talk show because they know what questions they will be asked in advance.

Many women have children because they long to be a mother so I assume men too want a child because they long to be a father. Many childless couples both want to raise a child together.

If he wanted Isabel specifically, he realized he would never be able to adopt her and raise her as his own, so maybe that's why he stole her.

If her abductor is single, childless, and in a mid-life crisis, he may have thought having a child would give him a purpose for living.

I don't think a female is involved but maybe there is and she is watching Isabel while he's at work.

if there is only him and Isabel and he keeps her locked inside the house while he is at work, then his secret is more secure.

Maybe in time someone will notice a change in his social life. For example, if he still works he may no longer go to the bars or participates in sports, and in time someone will wonder why.

All Isa really needs is food and shelter so he doesn't have to go out and shop for girl's clothing and she because she is 6 years old, she doesn't require diapers or baby food. It is very easy for him to keep Isabel hidden inside his home.

 

[paris_paris]

I found his statement very odd. I find it to be somewhat directed at the perp IMO. Either throwing them off in a somewhat ironic sense OR the simple truth is that there is no evidence because there was no kidnapping.

Please, it's only a thought, fellow sleuthers. I do think this statement is directed toward the person responsible though.

I read it different too. Almost sarcastic. Like when my grandson says "yes, I brushed my teeth" and I say "you did such a great job drying the toothbrush and everything".

 

[FrayedKnot]

Isn't this the case where they found her blood in the basement? And the week or so before she had a broken arm? And also the parents were divorced or separated. There is no history in this family of anything like that. jmo

Yeah. There never is any kind of history with any family until there is.

JMHO.


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[SmoothOperator]

So whoever did this, according to LE, covered up and did an adequate job knowing where Le would look for evidence. That is pretty compelling. That also tells me it is not a crazed criminal but a calculated one.

Moo of course but I believe that this abduction was very much "fantasized" about for a long period of time with Isa being the very specific target(and therefor extremely well thought out in advance of ever following through).. I believe the perp has long since fantasized of his "affair" with Isa.. That the perp very much has had a very sick attraction to Isa for a good bit of time and that he is absolutely in a position to not only know major info such as the homes exact lay out, where Isa's room is, etc.. But even more important his position gave him very specific and personal knowledge of how the entire household is run, daily/nightly routines, habits, etc.. Along with that he had the most important opportunity to even somewhat "groom" Isa for the long fantasized "affair" that he would one day have with her.. And I do not mean necessarily typical "grooming" but more so to form a bond of trust.. A willing participant in his sick mind that when he entered the home there wouldn't be concerns of her fighting him but rather the trust he'd manipulated and gained from her allowed them to to escape under the cover of darkness as the family members slept soundly without even a hint of something wrong..

IMO as far as the point of entry I too am not sold on it being the window(tho I still feel its a viable possibility just not known at this time).. IMO with his having such great and unassuming access to the victim, their home, and full knowledge of their habits, schedules, and routines this very likely could have allowed him in any number of various different ways to have access into the home without "breaking in" as was believed initially via Isa's bedroom window.. I look at it this way.. With the family not having an alarm system that was set nightly I believe that in the perp having such unfettered access to the family, their routines, and even being in the home possibly frequently or infrequently but my point is he knowing their routine could have at any point while being in the home for a visit he could have either swiped an extra house key, or had copy quickly and easily made.. Or even in being close with the family could have been given a key at some point from the actually family(for emergencies, for house sitting/feeding dogs while the Celis' were on vacation,etc).. And even if he didn't have a key or a copy of a key he had access to the home that on a previous visit to the home in days leading up to the abduction he very very easily could have just unlocked a window or sliding door THAT USUALLY ALWAYS STAYED LOCKED.. IMO I find this probable to be the most likeliest way that the perp could have easily prepared his access into the home in days prior to the abduction.. I know back before we had an alarm system that it was just standard that all of our windows STAYED LOCKED.. We DID NOT check every window in the house EVERY NIGHT before bed as it was just a given that they stayed locked.. Very very easily someone could have unlocked one of those windows and we most likely wouldnt have any idea due to the fact that we DID NOT check them EVERY NIGHT(now with an alarm that has very much changed).. But in the Celis home it's my opinion that in those days and hours leading up to the very much planned out and plotted abduction that the perp very easily could have unlocked a window or maybe even a particular door, such as sliding glass door that was KNOWN TO JUST ALWAYS STAY LOCKED BECAUSE IT WAS SO RARELY USED and therefor not something the family would be checking/rechecking every single night.. I believe regardless of where exactly the perp entered the home(window or door) that his closeness to the family allowed him the opportunity shortly before the abduction to easily unlock that window(or door or whatever entrance he used)..and yes of course there was always the fluke chance that for whatever reason the family re-locked that window or door.. But in that case when the perp arrived at the home to abduct Isa and found that his prepared entrance had been thwarted unknowingly by one of the fam having relocked that entry.. Well.. The perp very simply would have to abort the plan for that night.. It's as easy as that.. Which leads me to my final point about the profile of this perp..

And that is the very strange coincidence that exactly one week prior that "somehow" oddly enough the Celis dogs who'd never gotten out prior suddenly and mysteriously were out roaming the neighborhood.. That for me has always been NOT JUST A COINCIDENCE.. I believe it's very possible that this was this same exact perp's attempt at the abduction of Isa that week prior.. And that for whatever reasons(like possibly the perps unlocked entryway had been unknowingly thwarted by one of the fam relocking it).. Thus causing the perp to have to abort and in his haste and hurry to quickly leave the property somehow left open a gate/fence that allowed the dogs to get out.. I find this to be much much more probable than it being a mere coincidence that occurred exactly 1 week prior to Isa's abduction..

These are strictly MOO based on what we know and absolutely can and/or will change as new details come to light.. These are nothing more than jmo, tho!!


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Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy: