AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #11

[oceanblueeyes]

It's killing me to think she could be with some pedophile like Jaycee Dugard was. It's truly mind boggling to think a child can just dissappear out of thin air!! :banghead:

And we dont know how many others are out there just like Isa and Jaycee. While I would hate for Isa to endure what Jaycee had to suffer through at least she would be alive and have the possibilty of returning to the family that loves her and would see that she got all the help she needed trying to overcome what she may have suffered.

But honestly, I think Isa is most likely deceased. Predators dont keep their victims alive long after they kidnap them.

There are so many unsolved cases on missing children. I think predators are getting smarter and harder to catch but (sigh) our own tv shows teaches them day and night how to be a smarter criminal.

IMO

 

[passionflower]

O/T if my child was missing the stress would put me in a trance.
Hubby was in hospital for 1 week and I could hardly function......
went through motions of life.........
but could not consentrate or ever work.
JMOO

 

[Lava]

Uhh...this is hard to post.but there is a story in the news recently about Facebook pages dedicated to kids being .......abused horribly-I can't even bring myself to put the words here. It is a 4 part article which has just come out over the weekend I believe. You can google certain words and it will come up.
I am not sure how far I can go with this-just wanted to bring attention to it. If my post needs deleting-then please do that.

Also-what a beautiful voice Sergio Celis has-I am overwhelmed.

Sorry.
The story has certainly shocked me..........

There is a site called Reddit. Mostly, the site is innocent, its a collection of "subreddits" on different topics. A few months back, a group of perverts put up a subreddit (anyone can create them) that was pretty much fully clothed children in sexual positions. Pictures mind you, that weren't theirs - that were just pictures they found on peoples facebooks of children dancing and whatever (One popular picture was of an actual child abuse victim from overseas). We kept reporting the people and the subreddits and they would get banned, and an hour later a new account would do the same thing. This went on for a few days. Basically, it was a group of people who thought child was a "victimless" crime therefore shouldn't be a crime at all. They actually argued these points, on a public forum. It was disgusting. Point is...this stuff is out there, and until people open their eyes (people not alrady fixated on this stuff, like us here at WS), they will continue to hide in plain sight.

 

[Taminator]

It's plausible that the kidnapper let the dogs loose in hopes that animal control would come get them or in hopes that the family would find something to do with the dogs at night (like put them in the garage or in a crate/cage). I don't know. Just a thought.

 

[Deleted member 718]

Forgive me if I was wrong, but I thought this site was for sleuthing and for trying to figure these events out and possibly help catch the perpetrator NOT being fixated on one idea. I was trying to think outside the box and use my 'criminal' mind. lol

Snipped by me. I agree with you. I go back and forth with what I think happened to Isa. I haven't ruled out anyone, just like TPD hasn't. After hearing Sergio sing, today I would say no way he's responsible. But tomorrow I might learn something else that has him the main player. Who knows?

Some arguments do turn me off. Maybe like you feel right now.

 

[Isabelle]

I was talking to another poster today who lost her son due to a tragedy and she said what kept her from losing her mind was staying busy at work.

So I do think it may be better for both of them to return to what they were doing.

IMO

As long as both are mentally sound, they could return to work in their respective medical fields, but if an error occurred that would harm another then would have no protection, because their plight is so public. I don't think Rebecca should return to work as a nurse yet, especially in the hospital or emergency room arena and certainly not dealing with pediatric patients. The risk for error in normal situations is high already.

ETA: if Rebecca required medication to allow her to function in her current situation, she would be required to notify her board of nursing and they will dictate when and where she could work. The boards are very strict!

 

[Prof]

As far as I have seen, all we have of Sergio's court date April 26th is the report of a "not guilty" plea, and a video of him in a ball cap walking through a court hallway.

Where did the quote that Sergio did not let the dogs out come from? Is this in MSM somewhere? Does anyone know?

I am not sure I would assume that Sergio entering a not guilty for 8 charges (2 dogs at large, 3 no proof of license, 3 no proof of vaccination) necessarily adds up to him not letting the dogs out.

We don't know if they were let out by accident or not, and we don't know if the family was home when the dogs got out or not. We don't know if the two dogs were home when they got free, either. Maybe the dogs were over at the grandparents, and the dogs got out of that yard.

We also do not know if they got out of the yard regularly, and this is the first time animal control got involved.

It just seems to me that there could be many possibilities for the dog scenario.

http://www.kvoa.com/news/raw-video-isabel-celis-father-appears-in-city-court/

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Humor me please. I am trying my best to point my finger at someone AWAY from the family. IF it was an outsider, then they were taking a huge risk just 'hoping' the dogs would run and hide. Not very 'adequate' if you ask me.

The family is not going anywhere. LE knows who they are. What if it was not the family? Every day that goes by could be placing another child in danger.

Forgive me if I was wrong, but I thought this site was for sleuthing and for trying to figure these events out and possibly help catch the perpetrator NOT being fixated on one idea. I was trying to think outside the box and use my 'criminal' mind. lol

I truly think we are wasting our time trying to get into the head of pedophiles who have done things like this over and over again.

I do know they seem to be high risk takers and are very bold. Maybe it is part of their personality makeup.

But dogs just dont seem to scare predators. In the Greone home Duncan knew they had one aggressive Pit Bull and one Mixed Pit Bull that was roaming loose in the home. It didnt deter him whatsoever. He commented he thought he would have to kill the dogs but they just whimpered and scampered under the kitchen table to hide the entire time he was there creating mayhem.

David Westerfield went into the home of the Van Dam's and they also had a dog but the dog did not try to attack him. In fact he came in and got Danielle out of her upstairs bedroom and left with her and didnt leave one shred of evidence of himself behind.

I do agree with you. Time is wasting. Mark Lunsford and his parents endured the same thing when LE did nothing much but focus on them.......meanwhile for three days Jessica was alive across the street where Couey was raping and then finally burying Jessica alive and LE didnt even know she was buried over there under the porch and they had the cadavar and scent trailing dogs out in the neighborhood including over where Couey was staying.

I havent seen any evidence that the Celis family is planning on going anywhere. They have lived in Tuscon for most of their lives and have a strong support system there. There is no reason why they would leave the area they have been for so long.

In the video of Sergio singing Ava Maria they said that he had sang with everyone that was in the choir at one time or another during his lifetime. This is were their roots are.

IMO

 

[Mjskit]

It's plausible that the kidnapper let the dogs loose in hopes that animal control would come get them or in hopes that the family would find something to do with the dogs at night (like put them in the garage or in a crate/cage). I don't know. Just a thought.

Yes. Did they get the dogs back the same day they were loose or did they have to wait a few days? I am just wondering if the perp had time to see what changes, if any, were made.

 

[Prof]

Snipped by me. I agree with you. I go back and forth with what I think happened to Isa. I haven't ruled out anyone, just like TPD hasn't. After hearing Sergio sing, today I would say no way he's responsible. But tomorrow I might learn something else that has him the main player. Who knows?

Some arguments do turn me off. Maybe like you feel right now.

I go back and forth, too, but after seeing the extended interview, and hearing Sergio my emotions are with the family. We have so few facts on this case, and way too much speculation, it is impossible for me to rule anyone out or in, either.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

As far as I have seen, all we have of Sergio's court date April 26th is the report of a "not guilty" plea, and a video of him in a ball cap walking through a court hallway.

Where did the quote that Sergio did not let the dogs out come from? Is this in MSM somewhere? Does anyone know?

I am not sure I would assume that Sergio entering a not guilty for 8 charges (2 dogs at large, 3 no proof of license, 3 no proof of vaccination) necessarily adds up to him not letting the dogs out.

We don't know if they were let out by accident or not, and we don't know if the family was home when the dogs got out or not. We don't know if the two dogs were home when they got free, either. Maybe the dogs were over at the grandparents, and the dogs got out of that yard.

We also do not know if they got out of the yard regularly, and this is the first time animal control got involved.

It just seems to me that there could be many possibilities for the dog scenario.

http://www.kvoa.com/news/raw-video-isabel-celis-father-appears-in-city-court/

I am one of the ones that speculated it wasnt the Celis' family that accidentally let all three dogs out. When it goes to court I think he is going to say he is not guilty of letting them out to roam loose but he will eventually plead guilty that he didnt have the vacinations for the three dogs.

I think someone tried to look up prior instances of the dogs roaming loose and couldnt find but this one time. Isa had just gotten her new puppy last Christmas so they sure wouldnt want anything to happen to the puppy. I just dont see Isa's parents as being lax people.

While, yes, it is just speculation on my part, I dont buy coincidences very well in criminal cases and with them running loose just one week prior is very eerie timing to me.

It would be a perfect time if they were both away at work and the kids in school to come in the backyard to look in the windows in order to case the place out before going in the night Isa was taken.

IMO

 

[Prof]

Yes. Did they get the dogs back the same day they were loose or did they have to wait a few days? I am just wondering if the perp had time to see what changes, if any, were made.

We do not know if the officer just returned the dogs to the home, or took the dogs in to the pound.

Speculation: I wondered since the citation is on the 13th, and the charges were not filed until the 19th, if that alone could be an indication of impoundment. However, I would never jump to that conclusion.

Fact: We do know 2 dogs were at large, but 3 dogs were cited for no proof of license and vaccination.

Speculation: I am not sure how animal control knew about the 3rd dog without a home visit.

 

[liz b.]

It has been stated many times that fellow sleuthers feel the dogs were released by the abductor which leads me to these observations/questions.

IF the dogs running loose is connected to Isa disappearance.

Do you feel it was an accident by the predator? Possibly done on purpose? Why?

LE pretty much said this person covered their tracks so if the person let the dogs loose then they messed up.

Thinking out loud now**** If the predator planned this out well in advance then how would it benefit him/her to release the dogs causing SC to be ticketed? Would the incident ensure the dogs were kept inside at night so they could watch much closer to the home? It has been also stated how strange it was that the dogs didn't warn the family but is it possible the predator had come into the yard and made friends with the dogs beforehand?
This was a very busy family, they were not home much, IMO. Someone could have gone inside their home prior to the abduction and familiarized themselves with the floorplan so they would not need lights or maybe had the night goggles. MOO.

I thought that the first real attempt to abduct Isabel came on the night the dogs got loose,the week before the actual abduction. I think the abductor lost his nerve,and took off. He left the gate open as he took off. In this scenario, the abductor is fairly young,and has likely never done this before. He would live close by,probably on the block. MOO

I think he prowls the neighborhood,and probably spent a lot of time planning how to take Isabel, and getting up the nerve to take her. MOO

This story about Isabel sleeping in her brothers' room intrigues me. I wonder if she was scared at night.Perhaps she had heard someone outside her window at one time. Or maybe she just sensed some type of danger...MOO

Also, the abductor is someone who has no need to get up very early on Saturday. He could be up very late on Friday nights... MOO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

As long as both are mentally sound, they could return to work in their respective medical fields, but if an error occurred that would harm another then would have no protection, because their plight is so public. I don't think Rebecca should return to work as a nurse yet, especially in the hospital or emergency room arena and certainly not dealing with pediatric patients. The risk for error in normal situations is high already.

ETA: if Rebecca required medication to allow her to function in her current situation, she would be required to notify her board of nursing and they will dictate when and where she could work. The boards are very strict!

She seems like a very strong woman but I dont think she will take on anything that she thinks she cant handle. The hospital staff says she is an excellent nurse and I am sure she takes her job very seriously.

I really hope they put her somewhere else with less stress. Having to see little girls Isa'a age would indeed be hard for her.

IMO

 

[mck16]

Yes, Sergio did close his eyes. Ava Maria is a prayer, so it is appropriate to do that.

Hail Mary - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Link to Sergio singing Ava Maria -- http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/category/179377/video-center?clipId=7176929&autostart=true

Yes, you are right, it is a prayer and so are his statements about Isa he has said. Everytime he speaks it is a prayer for the return of his precious daughter. jmo

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I thought that the first real attempt to abduct Isabel came on the night the dogs got loose,the week before the actual abduction. I think the abductor lost his nerve,and took off. He left the gate open as he took off. In this scenario, the abductor is fairly young,and has likely never done this before. He would live close by,probably on the block. MOO

I think he prowls the neighborhood,and probably spent a lot of time planning how to take Isabel, and getting up the nerve to take her. MOO

This story about Isabel sleeping in her brothers' room intrigues me. I wonder if she was scared at night.Perhaps she had heard someone outside her window at one time. Or maybe she just sensed some type of danger...MOO

Also, the abductor is someone who has no need to get up very early on Saturday. He could be up very late on Friday nights... MOO

Wow.........now that is one of the best theories I have read thus far.

Great points, Liz. These predators can be very methodical and some will only strike when everything is in place and at the right time.

 

[Prof]

I am one of the ones that speculated it wasnt the Celis' family that accidentally let all three dogs out. When it goes to court I think he is going to say he is not guilty of letting them out to roam loose but he will eventually plead guilty that he didnt have the vacinations for the three dogs.

I think someone tried to look up prior instances of the dogs roaming loose and couldnt find but this one time. Isa had just gotten her new puppy last Christmas so they sure wouldnt want anything to happen to the puppy. I just dont see Isa's parents as being lax people.

While, yes, it is just speculation on my part, I dont buy coincidences very well in criminal cases and with them running loose just one week prior is very eerie timing to me.

It would be a perfect time if they were both away at work and the kids in school to come in the backyard to look in the windows in order to case the place out before going in the night Isa was taken.

IMO

I agree to an extent. I do think that it could be signficant that they got loose a week before. I agree that the timing is suspect.

It could very well be that the perp let the dogs out, even led them to another neighborhood assuming the dogs had some sort of identification tag. It could be that the dogs were impounded over the weekend, if they were loose on a Friday, and perhaps the family did not pick up the dogs right away.

If the dogs did not have tags or collars at all (which is sometimes the case with outside dogs---does that dog have a collar in that media clip?), then the dogs must have been found in the neighborhood that would know the dogs. I would guess one of the neighbors called animal control on the loose dogs, and told animal control where those animals live. (I got the feeling that the neighbors were not happy with the barking dogs JMO).

Just speculating...

 

[katydid23]

Perhaps, if the dogs being loose IS related, it was in a trial run and the dogs got out by mistake and the perp was scared off, thinking the dogs would attract attention?


I still feel this is someone known to the family ,who had been inside the home. I don't buy that someone roamed through the house, looking for Isabel, I think he knew she would be be in either the room with her brothers, or her own room and where those rooms were. The only reason I think it is possible she did sometimes sleep with her brothers is because her mom said something about that room being of great interest to LE, as well as Isabel's room. So maybe that "rumor" from NG was true, about her usually sleeping in there.

JMO

What about the animal control officer? He apparently made a visit to the home just a day prior. Maybe he saw Isabel there that day and liked her?
And an animal control officer would not be intimidated by the dogs. And he would know the layout of the home perhaps.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

We do not know if the officer just returned the dogs to the home, or took the dogs in to the pound.

Speculation: I wondered since the citation is on the 13th, and the charges were not filed until the 19th, if that alone could be an indication of impoundment. However, I would never jump to that conclusion.

Fact: We do know 2 dogs were at large, but 3 dogs were cited for no proof of license and vaccination.

Speculation: I am not sure how animal control knew about the 3rd dog without a home visit.

Sounds like the dogs were picked up by the pound and Sergio didnt know it until the 19th. The family may have been looking everywhere for the dogs in their area that weekend. What day was the 13th on? Wasnt that a Friday? He probably got in touch with them and once they knew who the owner was they charged him with the violations. If he did not have their vacinations up to date then the dogs probably didnt have a tag saying who the owner was.


IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

What about the animal control officer? He apparently made a visit to the home just a day prior. Maybe he saw Isabel there that day and liked her?
And an animal control officer would not be intimidated by the dogs. And he would know the layout of the home perhaps.

We had an animal control officer in our county one time and I thought he was overly friendly and very flirty. I was glad when he didnt work for the county anymore.

I have never had a dog picked up but if the animal control guy saw me out in our yard he would stop and talk for up to an hour. I thought to myself "shouldnt you be working?"

IMO