AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #12

[FrayedKnot]

I kind of wonder now if WHAT THEY FOUND recently to set this all off is related to what happened the other day with LE going back to the house with SC running in to the house and LE coming out to get beach towel and carrying something out. I wonder what that was about. Seems related.

Interesting thought. But what could the "something" be?


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[paris_paris]

Is she that way with her kids too?

You know, I don't think so. I remember reading her Facebook and all the times she mentioned the kids and what they were doing together. Baseball, dinner out, date night with Isa. I had to read way, way back to find any mention of her husband.

 

[Stash777]

how do I find the Isabel Celis Forum pa
ge? I cannot find the link...

Hmm...I just checked back on the Find Isabel Celis fb page and it was no longer there. You can find it using the search box if you type the whole name in (Isabel Celis Forum) and hit enter.

 

[pieper4]

I have been wanting to ask you since this new development if you have any more information on that G first name? The one we were to watch out for?

Is there someone else in this picture?

I keep thinking about my first impression of BC's fb. I wondered where SC was, as she never really mentions him in comments or even identifies him in pics. I understand that some people don't do this, but since she had family on there, I guess I sort of expected comments on the pics or something.
IDK

Feel free to ignore this post, if it is not a relevant trail anymore!

I think it may still be relevant, but don't know for a fact. I kind of hope so because that could mean Isabel is still alive and out of the state.

There were some pics of SC on her FB. Just not a ton.

 

[cluciano63]

I just wonder WHY LE released this info. LE keeps a lot of information close to the vest in these investigations. Why did they feel the need to let the public know of this? I just feel that LE specifically stating this new development is for a reason, but am stumped as to what that reason is.

I am wondering if the media learned of it and approached LE? Maybe they were going to report on it anyway and LE wanted to have the chance to issue a statement?

If that is NOT the case, then they for sure wanted the public to know that something was up and that it was not going to be good.

 

[PAXIMUS]

okay, so Sergio seemed kind of strange, I get that, but I am still not so sure this has to do with Isa missing in a direct way. I am wondering if it was something else that caused this action to be taken.
This is just a wild theory of mine, not meant to offend at all, but I would not be shocked if Sergio had had an inappropriate situation with a minor child (male), maybe his son's age, friends of his son, or have been in possession of depicting teen or very young adult boys/men...
which is bad, but not the same thing as killing your daughter. He has not been named as the main POI, not been arrested, no mention that RC is helping investigators build a case against him... it is within the realm of possibility that the thing that makes him unsafe around his sons is not a thing that makes him guilty of Isa's disappearance.

I am with you I think it is unrelated to the case and more related to marriage problems of some sort that have gotten to the point that the environment is no longer good for the kids. I doubt it is child on computer they check those computers right away and they would have known already about that plus if they do find CP on your computer they make arrests pretty quickly. I think he and Becky are fighting and maybe Sergio has fallen off the and could be a mean drunk.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Some of the reasons why Arizona CPS can step in and remove a parent.

17.
The physical or mental health or mental limitations of caregiver or other person living in or having access to the home places the child in immediate danger.

Caregiver's disorders reduce their ability to control their behavior in ways that threaten safety.

Caregiver is emotionally immobilized (chronically or situationally) and can not control his/her behavior in ways that threaten safety.

Caregiver is delusional; experiencing hallucinations.

Caregiver is so depressed that he/she is not functionally able to meet basic needs of the child.

Caregiver's intellectual incapacity affects judgment/knowledge in ways that prevent providing adequate basic care.

When Implementing and Monitoring the Safety Plan

After the Safety Plan has been developed, it must be implemented and monitored to ensure that all safety actions fully control the identified safety threat(s).

The CPS Specialist who is responsible for implementing the Safety Plan must explain the Plan to the family and, whenever the family has an active role in carrying out the Plan, obtain the family's commitment to cooperate and participate in carrying out the Plan. The CPS Specialist must discuss (and provide a copy of) the Safety Plan with the monitor, if applicable.

Under no circumstance is a Safety Plan to serve as the solution to a long-term problem. Every Safety Plan must be re-evaluated to ensure that the safety actions continue to control the identified safety threat(s). Failure to carry out the Safety Plan should result in a reassessment of child safety and possible protective custody and/or consultation with the Attorney General's Office regarding the need to file a dependency petition.


https://extranet.azdes.gov/dcyfpolicy/Exhibits/Exhibit_5_Child_Safety_Assessment_Protocol.htm

 

[Pensfan]

Hmm...I just checked back on the Find Isabel Celis fb page and it was no longer there. You can find it using the search box if you type the whole name in (Isabel Celis Forum) and hit enter.

Here is the facebook forum for Isabel, but it has very few posts:
https://www.facebook.com/IsabelCelisForum

 

[melissasmom]

I am wondering if the media learned of it and approached LE? Maybe they were going to report on it anyway and LE wanted to have the chance to issue a statement?

If that is NOT the case, then they for sure wanted the public to know that something was up and that it was not going to be good.

I thought of that too. But, I was under the impression that things related to CPS would not be something accessible to the press. I thought any type of family services investigation or intervention was private. The media would have eventually realized that SC was not living with the family, I am sure, but LE trying to head off the press on this issue just doesn't feel right to me.
I just wonder if this whole thing is some type of "strategy" on the part of LE. But what do I know. LOL

 

[cluciano63]

Reasons why Arizona CPS can step in and remove a parent.

17.
The physical or mental health or mental limitations of caregiver or other person living in or having access to the home places the child in immediate danger.

Caregiver's disorders reduce their ability to control their behavior in ways that threaten safety.

Caregiver is emotionally immobilized (chronically or situationally) and can not control his/her behavior in ways that threaten safety.

Caregiver is delusional; experiencing hallucinations.

Caregiver is so depressed that he/she is not functionally able to meet basic needs of the child.

Caregiver's intellectual incapacity affects judgment/knowledge in ways that prevent providing adequate basic care.

When Implementing and Monitoring the Safety Plan

After the Safety Plan has been developed, it must be implemented and monitored to ensure that all safety actions fully control the identified safety threat(s).

The CPS Specialist who is responsible for implementing the Safety Plan must explain the Plan to the family and, whenever the family has an active role in carrying out the Plan, obtain the family's commitment to cooperate and participate in carrying out the Plan. The CPS Specialist must discuss (and provide a copy of) the Safety Plan with the monitor, if applicable.

Under no circumstance is a Safety Plan to serve as the solution to a long-term problem. Every Safety Plan must be re-evaluated to ensure that the safety actions continue to control the identified safety threat(s). Failure to carry out the Safety Plan should result in a reassessment of child safety and possible protective custody and/or consultation with the Attorney General's Office regarding the need to file a dependency petition.


https://extranet.azdes.gov/dcyfpolicy/Exhibits/Exhibit_5_Child_Safety_Assessment_Protocol.htm

Some of the other reasons listed in this list include threats being made to a child, and sexual abuse of a child...really, this could be a lot of things in this case, but it had to be a big one, IMO, to disallow ANY type of contact...

 

[Deleted member 718]

This has the same feel to it as the surveillance video did. A message being sent.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Some of the other reasons listed in this list include threats being made to a child, and sexual abuse of a child...really, this could be a lot of things in this case, but it had to be a big one, IMO, to disallow ANY type of contact...

Those would be criminal acts and if he had done any of those things they would have no qualms in arresting Sergio. They arent in the business of protecting those who sexually abuse children or those who makes terroristic threats to a child.

IMO

 

[Lava]

I just can't see how SC isn't allowed around his kids, or even to talk to his kids, over marriage problems or a breakdown. I've seen some pretty rough people able to have supervised visits with their children. People who are addicts, who have been abusive...heck, just last year my sister got a restraining order against her husband and in that same hearing, right after the judge said she believed he was a threat, she believed my sister that he held a gun to her head - she gave him visitation rights (not supervised) with their 2 year old.

CPS must believe that SC is an actual threat to his children. The question is why? Did they find child in his possession? Did he make some sort of statement that alerted LE? Did the kids say something about SC? I

 

[Stash777]

Here is the facebook forum for Isabel, but it has very few posts:
https://www.facebook.com/IsabelCelisForum

Thank you, I wasn't sure if I could post the link to the page or not, so I erred on the side of caution. There is a post made by an MH. If you click to view more comments, MH explains more of her initial post (posted 2 hours before the ABC story broke).

 

[Gardenlady]

I'm still wondering if perhaps Sergio became suicidal - due to stress, possibly due to he and RC having a rocky marriage before all this, Isa disapoearing, and now the relationship completely broke down? Maybe he is drinking, or getting high to deal with the stress, making it worse and things got ugly.

Could be interpreted as being a threat to the children and RC, if one or more of those is true.

 

[katydid23]

I think it is something along the lines of trying to get the boys to withhold information or lie about things.

If it was just intense grief,as listed in that explanation above, I don't see why they would prevent the boys from visiting him. They are 10 and 14, which is entirely old enough to fend for themselves if Dad is crying inconsolably about their sister. I don't see why intense grief would be a huge problem with boys of that age. They would be in no danger, unless Dad was totally suicidal, but in that case he would be in the hospital, imo.

 

[johnQpublic]

Just a few observations I have made from reading up on everything... First off it's apparent from SC's behavior there is something up in his fake emotions. There was a comment from uncle/cousin " let the police 'do thier deal' " (that sounds like tweaker talk). The son's made mention of a "clicking" sound < possibly a butane lighter > over the night Isa went missing. Kinda makes it sound like someone was hitting a Meth pipe. There is no mention of what time SC went to bed ( Did he sleep ?? ). LE say's whoever did this covered thier tracks really well. It really sound's like SC and maybe Uncle/cousin got twacked out, did something ( who knows what ) to Isabel and then took her somewhere. ( alive-dead who knows ) but Something kinda tweakish is up here.

 

[cluciano63]

Those would be criminal acts and if he had done any of those things they would have no qualms in arresting Sergio. They arent in the business of protecting those who sexually abuse children or those who makes terroristic threats to a child.

IMO

If they could not yet prove those acts, but just have the word of a child, for example, the first thing they would do is remove the child, then work to prove the case. JMO

 

[Gardenlady]

Maybe he IS in a hospital and we don know. Or under a doctors care. Wonder if we would know if he was, given medical privacy.

Which brings me to also wonder why none of the press Have mentioned either RC or SC being out and about, or leaving the house, or any sightings of any of them at all, since this news broke. Are they all holed up somewhere? How did SC get booted out, without anyone noticing?

:waitasec:

 

[Lava]

If they could not yet prove those acts, but just have the word of a child, for example, the first thing they would do is remove the child, then work to prove the case. JMO

Not only that, but the "big picture" here is finding Isabel. Not that if any harm came to the boys isn't important, but if they have taken the kids away they probably already have proof of something. But as soon as he is arrested, he lawyers up - and clams up about Isabel. I think it is important to keep him out while trying to find out what happened to Isabel. They could be just telling him this is a temporary situation, just cooperate until we work everything out.