AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #13

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  • #661
LDT'S can rule ppl out!
And I think the results are important to LE it can help them in an investigation on who is being truthful and who is not!

JMO

Yeah, like the way Gary Ridgway was ruled out twice in the Green River killer case because he passed two polygraphs.

Um, oops. That left him free to kill more women because LE trusted the results of the polygraph over the eyewitness testimony that linked him directly to one of the victims.

In the Amber Dubois case, her stepfather failed not one, not two but eight polygraphs.

Oops. It turns out he was absolutely and completely innocent. Those polygraph failures may have led LE to focus too closely on him, leaving the perp to kill another girl before he was caught.
 
  • #662
There is a mounted SAR-TEC unit, it's just usually only used on trails, I've seen TPD and PPD equine trucks and trailers before, Scottsdale also has a mounted division.

Really? Never seen 'em. Wonder what they actually do on a daily basis? Seriously... I've never even spotted as much as a trailer. Thanks!
 
  • #663
Yeah, like the way Gary Ridgway was ruled out twice in the Green River killer case because he passed two polygraphs.

Um, oops. That left him free to kill more women because LE trusted the results of the polygraph over the eyewitness testimony that linked him directly to one of the victims.

In the Amber Dubois case, her stepfather failed not one, not two but eight polygraphs.

Oops. It turns out he was absolutely and completely innocent. Those polygraph failures may have led LE to focus too closely on him, leaving the perp to kill another girl before he was caught.

Personally, as LDTs are not admissible in court, I believe they have no place in investigations. I think anything that is so open to interpretation has no business being given credence. MOO

I think statement analysis is hooey, too! ;)


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  • #664
I'd support that position if I had actually taken it, but I did not.

I am referring to a specific situation and using as support an innocent man who was in that very situation.

I have a lot of respect for Mark Klaas. However, his experience is just that: his experience and not necessarily applicable to anyone else's situation.

LE had eyewitnesses to Polly Klaas's abduction. Those eyewitnesses gave a description of a perpetrator who differed markedly in appearance from Mark Klaas. Further, Mark had an alibi for that night.

So "fully cooperating" with LE meant cooperating with LE that already had plenty of evidence that he wasn't the guy who did it. That's probably a very different experience from someone who does not have those factors in their favour.

I would never demand anyone who has gone through the tragedy of losing their child to a murderous sexual predator become an advocate for missing children. Becoming an advocate can be healing but it can also be traumatising.

However, I really wish Kevin Fox will some day feel like doing more speaking out about what he believes is the wisest course for the parent of a missing child to take.

I'm betting he'd advocate something very different from Mark Klaas because his experience differed so dramatically from Mark Klaas's experience.
 
  • #665
The liability they would open themselves up to would be insane. Lawsuits from family who are suffering, waiting for Isabel, including Sergio and his family, for example. Second, CPS cannot withhold custody from a parent without a hearing happening within a day or two of being taken into care (and notice to the parents). And if this was a scheme between Becky and LE, Sergio could sue the heck out of both LE and Becky.

But there is no way LE would be a party to such a thing. A missing child is one of the direst emergencies in the public consciousness. To secret away a missing child who is safe, and keep that info from the public, would be unconscionable and lead to heads rolling and AZ becoming the shame of the nation. It would never happen. :moo:

I agree with you, but one scenario made me wonder.


What if there was a situation like Shawn Hornbeck and Ben?
Where the person had abducted more than one child?

What if they had found Isa but couldn't get her AND the other child yet?
Or, had gotten Isa but not the other child?


Or even found the body of one child, but knowing that there is another child alive...
If they release that they found a body the perp may kill the second child?

Would they come out and say they had Isa, knowing that would mean an abductor would likely kill the other victim?
Would they have come out and said "We have found Shawn Hornbeck!" If they hadn't found Ben yet and knew he was there?

I have a major headache from my concussion so I know this isn't making sense. But I'm pretty confident you'll figure out what I mean.
 
  • #666
I also watched the interview with Becky from Mother's Day afternoon.
I agree that she seems much more relaxed and natural in that interview.

This could be because Sergio is not there and she is relieved for whatever reason.

However, it could also be as simple as a couple of things.

1. She is not in front of a group of people, reporters, law enforcement at a press conference.

2. She is not sitting in a room full of people with typical TV lights, cameras, action set up.

It may just be a bit more comfortable for her to talk outside, with one reporter and no crowd.
I will be interested to see if she does another interview, the circumstances and how she responds to it. :twocents:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=95YapPAyrSw
 
  • #667
I never ever said DON'T talk to Law enforcement.. they are the first ones you want to reach out to and if it seems the case will not be solved within 24-48 hours and you find yourself being questioned over and over again.. DEFINITELY get yourself an attorney.
Sorry you were under the assumption that I thought a lawyer should be the FIRST one to call. Law enforcement will definitely be your first contact in a situation like Isabel's but after you see where the investigation is leading (whether you're innocent or guilty) you should defend yourself AND make sure LE is researching OTHER avenues besides YOU!
perhaps if LE wasn't so sure the Lunsfords were involved with Jessica's disappearance, John Couey would have been investigated a little more thoroughly?????? One can only wonder.
As I've stated previously I DO have my suspicions about the parents but still think they deserve what we as Americans "should" hold dear.. the right to having legal representation.

I completely agree!

If LE hadn't focused in on Kevin Fox, maybe Scott Eby wouldn't have been free to rape another little girl.

He left his very distinctive shoes with his name in them at the Riley Fox crime scene! How difficult should that have been to figure out??? But LE had a single suspect from the git-go and that left Eby free to rape again.

I guess the next victim was lucky he didn't murder her as well.
 
  • #668
You are right on with what I was trying to say earlier, in terms of getting an attorney. There is no need to IMMEDIATELY get representation. And it is vital that everyone involved cooperates completely, answers all questions fully, several times, in order to get the investigation going.

But at some point, if the investigation seems stalled on the family, and they feel that they are being focused on as the prime suspects, they should absolutely get legal help. One of the things that a good defense attorney can do is help LE see why you are not the guilty party. It is better for them to go and show receipts and evidence of your alibi at that point, because otherwise you may end up saying things awkwardly or innocently, that paint the wrong picture. I have seen it happen. My dad got many truly innocent people out of legal jams over the years.

Countries that have civil rights and aggressive defence lawyers to promote observance of those civil rights are in the forefront of forensic science.

Countries that have weak or no civil rights don't have much in the way of forensic science. They don't need pesky details like that since it is so easy to get a conviction.
 
  • #669
Oh my goodness. I have 15 pages of catching up to do. :what:
 
  • #670
Now you tell me. Stupid iphone tapatalk no color having font stupid head. And yet i am too lazy to engage laptop for the sake of cool blue sarcasm font.

Colour is just a code that you can put into the text as you type it. Those codes are delineated with square brackets. So you can do it all in text, no need for special buttons or anything like that.

Let's see if I can figure out how to post the code for turquoise so you can type it in. Take all the spaces out of the following at the start of the text you want to show up in turquoise:

[ C O L O R = " M e d i u m T u r q u o i s e " ]

Take all the spaces out of the following at the end of the text you want to show up in turquoise:

[ / C O L O R ]
 
  • #671
I think JohnQ makes some excellent points, and that would make a FANTASTIC screenplay, but with all of the money pouring and the posters and BILLBOARDS CONTINUING to go up wrt to the SEARCH for ISA, such a scenario would result in heads rolling at the highest levels in this city if that were to be the case.


I do, however, find BC's statement interesting.

The only way I could imagine that happening if there were major crime figures involved in her disappearance, Mafia, Cartels etc and even then it would be totally unprecedented and extremely risky to carry on in that fashion, but with the FBI involved and this being Arizona, a JQP pointed, we do indeed do things a lot differently here, his suggestion did make me pause for a moment but then I quickly came to my senses and realized just how bad of a PR and legal nightmare that would be for this city, its LE and everyone else involved.

Not a chance.

... Y'all have Joe Arpaio and you say there's PR that is too bad for the state of Arizona???
 
  • #672
I have said it before but I will say it again, this is ARIZONA not Florida or any other state. They have a standand posture of not trying cases in the media as it can create prosecution and investigative issues. They do not air out the details of cases very often and usually only issue very vague statements such as 'the dog hit on "something" and we have obtained 'video' or 'evidence' what that video shows is only revealed if they NEED information from the public to gain traction from the video, not to feed the public 'arm-chair jurors' details. LE also has a position of which they would prefer that the public let them do thier job and have very good reasons not to want the public to go on thier own scavenger hunts looking for people or bodies as evidence and case work maybe comprimised by public search efforts plus it makes it more difficult to exclude a person or persons from the case should they actually find something of interest. AZ LE in my opinion has a grip on this investigation and doe's know a great deal more of the situation than what they report publicly.

With respect, as an outsider looking in, this case is not any different than any of the other cases I've followed. Florida or not. Speculation abound based on information released by LE. Dog hitting, video surveillance and now CPS involvement, nobody ruled out, looking at all scenarios, etc etc etc.

The only difference I see, is they're not allowing public searches for some reason and they remain focused within the 3 mile radius. Following up on leads may be considered searching, I guess, but all LE do that.
 
  • #673
  • #674
I keep thinking of all kinds of reasons for this CPS involvement, but then I come to the 'no-contact' part and there go all my theories. It's so bad that there can't even be supervised visits?
I am catching up on the thread-but does anyone knows what happens from here? Is SC stuck with no contact until CPS is finished investigating? I wonder how long it will take?

I am not a lawyer and I'm certainly not familiar with Arizona law.

In the states I'm familiar with, a parent who has been issued the equivalent of a No Contact Order has the right to a court hearing within a very few days. Usually 3 to 5 days, maximum.

At that time, the parent issued the order presents their side of the case and the state equivalent of CPS presents their side of the case. Then the judge decides.

My guess is that, considering that no charges have been filed, SC may be showing extreme symptoms of stress such that he may be upsetting the two boys.

There was a case in my state where a mother was reported to CPS because she voiced a suicide threat in her child's hearing (the story according to CPS). CPS issued a Temporary Restraining Order banning her from any contact with her child.

The rest of the story was that the woman's other child had been in a horrible car accident and was in ICU in critical condition. The hospital personnel became concerned because the mother was hysterically sobbing for long periods of time and then she said something like "if my baby dies I will kill myself."

In front of her other child.

I agree that exposing her child to that sort of behaviour was not good but it's a far cry from murder.

The outcome of the case was that the woman had a court hearing in 3 days. The judge decided that the child should stay with the father and have supervised daily visitation with the mother at the hospital while the mother got counselling.

I realise that Arizona can be very, very different but from the excerpt that oceanblueeyes posted, something similar could trigger CPS action against SC.
 
  • #675
I'm very confused.. Isabel Celis (missing) was 6.. this person was 51. Forgive me if I'm not seeing the obvious but what's the scenario you're thinking?

HUH?????


Isabel could have been named for this person!

the older IC murdered a woman and the womans family could seek revenge
by taking IC from them like IC took their loved one.

It was just a theory!
And it could be possible!

JMO
 
  • #676
i have 27. woops 28 now. lol.

Don't worry, lol! Alot of it is us bored WSers speculating and embarking on a tangent or three!


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  • #677
Colour is just a code that you can put into the text as you type it. Those codes are delineated with square brackets. So you can do it all in text, no need for special buttons or anything like that.

Let's see if I can figure out how to post the code for turquoise so you can type it in. Take all the spaces out of the following at the start of the text you want to show up in turquoise:

[ C O L O R = " M e d i u m T u r q u o i s e " ]

Take all the spaces out of the following at the end of the text you want to show up in turquoise:

[ / C O L O R ]

Oh Grainne! You are so sweet to help. But alas, you are no match for my laziness!


I tried using code to bold things for a while, but ended up just typing in caps for emphasis. Which makes me feel like I am yelling. And I still was too lazy to take the extra 6 seconds.

Now I need a nap, lol


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  • #678
I am also baffled that the searching seems to have stopped. Why are there not any organized search groups looking for Isabel?

I think they know she is not there!
 
  • #679
I think they know she is not there!

I feel strongly that Isa is dead and that her family is involved if not responsible.

After that, I got nothin'.

But the No Contact thing is concerning, the possibility that the parents were separated prior to Isa's disappearance raises more questions, and seriously! What is up with Uncle Cousin? He is in this somehow. Ugh.

I need more coffee.


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  • #680
HUH?????


Isabel could have been named for this person!

the older IC murdered a woman and the womans family could seek revenge
by taking IC from them like IC took their loved one.

It was just a theory!
And it could be possible!

JMO

Was the older IC murdered by someone in Sergio or Becky's families?


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