AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[panthera]

Here are some questions to get answered about the window:

- Does LE believe or have reason to believe the window was a point of entry and/or exit?

- What had to happen for that window to be used for entry? How about exit?

- Could someone reach the window without climbing up a ladder of some kind?

- Was the window left open? Was it left unlocked, but not open?

Another question -

Were there any forensics (i.e. dirt, fibers, hair) either inside Isabel's room and/or on the window sill to indicate this was a point of entry/exit?

 

[Dee10]

From the link Gliving provided about 8 minutes in it talks about Mom having a DUI with a child in the car and other records. http://video.foxnews.com/v/1647897013001/where-is-isabel-celis

 

[mamamia54]

Ok this is the portion of the video I'm talking about and questioning -

mark fuhrman: We know there's a little bit of substance abuse, there some traffic problems and they have had some brushes with the law about dogs, which is a little unusual because you've gotta be a problem person in the neighborhood before somebody reports you for a dog.

mark fuhrman: We know that she has a drinking problem, prior arrest for driving with the kids in the car. She has a drinking problem, and a repeated problem of drinking and so she can't drive and drink. Blah Blah Blah.

So maybe she can drive but not drink, which is obvious. Confusing........

 

[GutFeeling!]

I just wonder, if there is nothing to it, why did SC agree to stop all contact with his sons? If there is no evidence that warrants it, many parents would rather take their chances in court than stop seeing their kids.

Probably because if he didn't sign it there would have been a court order that day.

 

[Madeleine74]

It's not black or white. There can be a generally 'good guy' who is generally a loving parent and something can still happen where a child ends up dead due to something that happened by the parent.

What people see out in public, outside of their houses, in social situations is not the 100% entire story nor showing every single facet of someone's personality. People are complex.

How many times have we seen someone get arrested and all the neighbors and friends say, "I never could imagine Mr. or Ms. XYZ doing anything like this! He/She was so quiet and polite, helpful." It's like the standard cliche interview that's seen right after someone gets arrested.

Public comments and scrutiny don't necessarily indicate what happened behind closed doors. Evidence. It's all about evidence.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

BBM
I agree in part, OBE, but then no persons have come out in support of him either. Other than his friend, wife and sister. Unless I missed it. If so, please point me in that direction.

I just watched a video this morning that said both parents are receiving support. I think Sergio is being supported by many who really know him but the media and the public at large seems to come down hard and heavy on anyone that is supporting someone when the media and the public is constantly seen criticizing that person.

IMO, Nancy Grace was extremely rude (even for Nancy) to Mr. Vegas who seems to be nothing more than a nice honest man. Who wants the ridicule and some are so nutz out there today they will even send death threats if people speak up for someone the media and the public at large has already determined guilty.

IMO

 

[Donjeta]

Probably because if he didn't sign it there would have been a court order that day.

But don't you usually need some kind of evidence for a court order? If the CPS contacts were nothing and had nothing do do with him and if there is no evidence against him now he should have had his day in court and he might be living with his sons.

 

[Deleted member 718]

As for the screen, I think it probably depends on what sort of screen system they have. On my house, it would be easier to use a butter knife or the corner of a credit card to pop one side of the screen loose, then the whole thing would come out silently.. There are these little sliding doo-dads that are supposed to hold the screens in place but they don't work real well. So long as you apply pressure several inches away from the doo-dad, the screen will pop right out.

So with our screens, cutting would actually be noisier.

Whoever removed the screen may not have used that window as an entrance/exit point. They may have been preparing for a quick exit if someone woke up.

I thought the window itself was open. I'll have to go back through the links to see.

I think if Isabel had started making a lot of noise, the abductor would have ditched her and run. But many small children are used to being moved in their sleep by their parents. So long as they are picked up gently and held securely, the child just stays asleep.

In the Sierra LaMar case, there have been news stories about attempted abductions in the general area. Each time, the wannabe abductor was foiled by relatively simple means: the victim screamed or started running and the abductor took off. That says to me that it is likely that abductors make many tries until they find a compliant victim. A little girl who stayed asleep when picked up would be an ideal compliant victim.

To me, the dogs are a non-problem. I'd just fill my pockets with a good treat like garlic roasted chicken cut into bits and the vast majority of dogs would instantly be my best friend forever. Very, very few owners go to through the time and effort required to teach a dog to refuse food offered by a stranger or food on the ground. I teach my dogs to refuse food on the ground but I'm a dog trainer and weird, so I don't count.

I realise that TPD seems to be doing all they can to shine the spotlight on the family while they employ plausible deniability but I'm just not convinced yet.

Nom, garlic roasted chicken bits! I'm still stuck on my theory that someone lured Isa out of the home by saying her little white dog was hurt or lost. Someone she's familiar with. She wouldn't need to be carried or have to go out the window. They could tell her to leave out the garage, but don't wake your parents or they will be mad. By the way, have we seen a photo of the white dog since Isa's disappearance?

The perp is someone known to Isa and she was coerced into to going with them. MOO

 

[Prof]

Ok this is the portion of the video I'm talking about and questioning -

mark fuhrman: We know there's a little bit of substance abuse, there some traffic problems and they have had some brushes with the law about dogs, which is a little unusual because you've gotta be a problem person in the neighborhood before somebody reports you for a dog.

mark fuhrman: We know that she has a drinking problem, prior arrest for driving with the kids in the car. She has a drinking problem, and a repeated problem of drinking and so she can't drive and drink. Blah Blah Blah.

So maybe she can drive but not drink, which is obvious. Confusing........

The DUI was in 2002 and this certainly is not new news. She went through Diversion 10 years ago...She can drive legally. She drove home when Isa went missing.

Mark F. is sharing opinion only...and he did not quite get facts straight lol

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Ok this is the portion of the video I'm talking about and questioning -

mark fuhrman: We know there's a little bit of substance abuse, there some traffic problems and they have had some brushes with the law about dogs, which is a little unusual because you've gotta be a problem person in the neighborhood before somebody reports you for a dog.

mark fuhrman: We know that she has a drinking problem, prior arrest for driving with the kids in the car. She has a drinking problem, and a repeated problem of drinking and so she can't drive and drink. Blah Blah Blah.

So maybe she can drive but not drink, which is obvious. Confusing........

Sounds like MF hasnt really brushed up on the case much except to look at past criminal history.

It isnt unusual for someone to call about dogs they see loose in the neighborhood. I have done so myself and didnt even know who the dogs belonged to but I was afraid they were going to get run over so I called animal control.

So I dont agree with MF on that one issue and the neighbors may have not even known the Celis or their dogs and we have no idea where the dogs were found and how far away from their home. They were behind the 5 foot wall before they mysteriously got loose that one time.

IMO

 

[Lava]

But don't you usually need some kind of evidence for a court order? If the CPS contacts were nothing and had nothing do do with him and if there is no evidence against him now he should have had his day in court and he might be living with his sons.

From my experience, in Florida, in Family Court evidence is RARELY brought before a judge. The judge trusts DCF to make these decisions, and if their reports are all written well and show reasonable suspicion the judge Okays removal of children. The last few years I've spent with my sister in family court has been really eye opening. It is NOT the same as criminal court.

 

[panthera]

It's not black or white. There can be a generally 'good guy' who is generally a loving parent and something can still happen where a child ends up dead due to something that happened by the parent.

What people see out in public, outside of their houses, in social situations is not the 100% entire story nor showing every single facet of someone's personality. People are complex.

How many times have we seen someone get arrested and all the neighbors and friends say, "I never could imagine Mr. or Ms. XYZ doing anything like this! He/She was so quiet and polite, helpful." It's like the standard cliche interview that's seen right after someone gets arrested.

Public comments and scrutiny don't necessarily indicate what happened behind closed doors. Evidence. It's all about evidence.

BBM

Serial killer Dennis Rader (BTK) is a perfect example of this.

MOO

 

[FrayedKnot]

But don't you usually need some kind of evidence for a court order? If the CPS contacts were nothing and had nothing do do with him and if there is no evidence against him now he should have had his day in court and he might be living with his sons.

BBM

Aha! .


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[Madeleine74]

I'm still stuck on my theory that someone lured Isa out of the home by saying her little white dog was hurt or lost. Someone she's familiar with. She wouldn't need to be carried or have to go out the window. They could tell her to leave out the garage, but don't wake your parents or they will be mad. By the way, have we seen a photo of the white dog since Isa's disappearance?

The perp is someone known to Isa and she was coerced into to going with them. MOO

So the window was neither a point of entry or exit but it was used to wake up a sleeping child at some point in the middle of the night? And then this sleepy child (I assume she was asleep) got her wits about her and went out one of the doors, without anyone inside the house hearing anything or noticing. She didn't talk, she didn't make noise, she didn't call for mommy or daddy, she just calmly went along with this plan...

I'm not seeing this scenario. And that wouldn't be an abduction since Isa would have left the house on her own 2 feet. LE called this an "abduction," which means Isa was taken out of the house by someone (including a parent).

 

[deanna82437]

No, it was just interesting me to hear them speak about the fact that Becky had the prior alcohol abuse which was why she still can't drive. So, perhaps my thinking that someone could have put Isa inside the trunk of her vehicle was wrong thinking, if indeed she can't drive.

I've not found a transcript, but re-watched the video and it was Mark Fuhrman(?) that spoke of her prior DUI and I believe following that he said (paraprasing) you cannot drive and drink. IMO he did not say she was still not able to drive. MOO and what my ears heard. :rocker:

 

[Deleted member 718]

It's not black or white. There can be a generally 'good guy' who is generally a loving parent and something can still happen where a child ends up dead due to something that happened by the parent.

What people see out in public, outside of their houses, in social situations is not the 100% entire story nor showing every single facet of someone's personality. People are complex.

How many times have we seen someone get arrested and all the neighbors and friends say, "I never could imagine Mr. or Ms. XYZ doing anything like this! He/She was so quiet and polite, helpful." It's like the standard cliche interview that's seen right after someone gets arrested.

Public comments and scrutiny don't necessarily indicate what happened behind closed doors. Evidence. It's all about evidence.

*nods head* Too true. Dennis Rader, the BTK strangler. Wichita dog catcher. Who is the Tucson's dog catcher that was at the home the previous week? Wonder if Isa saw him. IMO

 

[azmary]

Wow! Edifying! Thank you for posting the link!

Seems like some of the posts here are not so crackpot after all.......JMO


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Thank you!! This was just plain interesting.

 

[prima.facie]

As for the screen, I think it probably depends on what sort of screen system they have. On my house, it would be easier to use a butter knife or the corner of a credit card to pop one side of the screen loose, then the whole thing would come out silently.. There are these little sliding doo-dads that are supposed to hold the screens in place but they don't work real well. So long as you apply pressure several inches away from the doo-dad, the screen will pop right out.

So with our screens, cutting would actually be noisier.

Whoever removed the screen may not have used that window as an entrance/exit point. They may have been preparing for a quick exit if someone woke up.

I thought the window itself was open. I'll have to go back through the links to see.

I think if Isabel had started making a lot of noise, the abductor would have ditched her and run. But many small children are used to being moved in their sleep by their parents. So long as they are picked up gently and held securely, the child just stays asleep.

In the Sierra LaMar case, there have been news stories about attempted abductions in the general area. Each time, the wannabe abductor was foiled by relatively simple means: the victim screamed or started running and the abductor took off. That says to me that it is likely that abductors make many tries until they find a compliant victim. A little girl who stayed asleep when picked up would be an ideal compliant victim.

To me, the dogs are a non-problem. I'd just fill my pockets with a good treat like garlic roasted chicken cut into bits and the vast majority of dogs would instantly be my best friend forever. Very, very few owners go to through the time and effort required to teach a dog to refuse food offered by a stranger or food on the ground. I teach my dogs to refuse food on the ground but I'm a dog trainer and weird, so I don't count.

I realise that TPD seems to be doing all they can to shine the spotlight on the family while they employ plausible deniability but I'm just not convinced yet.

The problem with this is..........

1. how did the napper know that there was a little girl sleeping in a bed in THAT room THAT night? they had to know exactly which room she slept in and that she would be in there at the time they tried. why would some random person chose a house that was not ummmmm "user friendly" (high closed off walls).

2. how did the napper know that she would not make a noise or fight for her life? the window is not huge. now i have HUGE windows - an adult man could fit thru easily. her window was not huge. so how did he manage to take her, not wake her, keep her quiet and still (not fighting for her life) and get himself and her out of the small window...and over a wall. it seems impossible......no way, no how, IMO.

3. how did the napper know that the dogs would not attack EVEN with treats or make a sound? i have a big german shepherd....if she does not know you and you come near her or my house, she will kill you. i am NOT exaggerating. i dont care if you have a big steak to give her. she will attack you and kill you. she also will not immiedately or always bark (sometimes she does) at strangers if they come near. she will watch and watch and creap (like a cat)...she is very sneaky lol.....so someone coming over a fence may not even know she is there....BUT people who know me know how she is...

as ive said over and over.....this was a perfect storm of opportunity for someone to abduct her....and in my very very very vivid imagination, i do not see how some random stranger took her from her bed.

 

[Madeleine74]

Hearing hooves.

Zebras?

Let's try horses.

 

[Prof]

But don't you usually need some kind of evidence for a court order? If the CPS contacts were nothing and had nothing do do with him and if there is no evidence against him now he should have had his day in court and he might be living with his sons.

A poster last night suggested that Hawke actually said the past TPD calls were minor, not the CPS visit in December.
The poster reminded us on LE's position, very clear position, on not commenting on the nature of CPS' involvement.
The reporters asked questions about both TPD prior calls and about the CPS visit. Hawke answered "minor" to the TPD calls questions.
NBC and other media reported it as CPS visit was minor, in error we believe.



Here is the FULL video of the press conference on May 17, 2012. I promised our poster I would look for it.
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/category/179377/video-center