AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[Madeleine74]

I agree with the person on Fox news that LE has very good suspicions about who is responsible for Isa's disappearance. All the clues LE has hinted at so far pretty much scream they are focused on the father.

Of course even in resolved cases there are those who insist that LE had to have gotten it all wrong and some other, possibly more convoluted, scenario had to have happened because that's what their mind has settled on.

 

[mamamia54]

Then who took her to work?

Keep on reading Eileen, keep on reading lol.

 

[prima.facie]

IMO it's not a random stranger nor a perfect storm. It's someone familiar with the family and knows the one big dog is on it's last legs. (Poor old dog) Someone who has watched the home and knows the family's habits and how Isa treasured her white dog. Someone who specifically wanted Isabel Celis.

Like Brian Mitchell. MOO

...right...or mom and/or dad...

i dont believe it was a stranger abduction...at all. and i dont think LE does either.

 

[callyn]

I am going to re-post something from a couple weeks ago that I think is pertinent now with so many doubting that the family could have slept through whatever happened:
Regarding being able to get into a house and not be heard, this is what happened to me.
When I was about 20 I was staying at my parent's house. One night, my parents in their bedroom, I was in mine with door closed. We were all asleep. Cat burglars (LE called them that) came into our home, into my parent's bedroom and proceeded to steal things from the top of the dresser. They removed an entire drawer which contained jewelry and carried it out into an orange grove nearby to sort through it. The chilling thing was that they removed a belt from my mother's shorts which she had left only about 2 or 3 feet from where she slept. This belt was later found discarded with a two by four, which LE said was to use as a weapon, and likely the belt to be used to tie someone up. Thank god, no one woke up!

Mind you, as a twenty year old, I had tried to sneak into that room while she was asleep and borrow jewelry and that drawer always squeaked and she ALWAYS woke up!

They also took various items from a spare room including a bag that looked like a purse, but only contained a wet bathing suit - I liked that they found a soggy suit when they expected loot.

They made several trips in and out of the house (through the back door they had broken into) even taking an entire case of liquor from the bar.

They did not enter my room, I suppose because the door was closed, it wasn't locked, just closed.

LE told us often these people will wait outside, listening. They know that a certain length of time after retiring, turning lights off, is when people are in their soundest sleep. They listen to people saying goodnight, turning lights off, then wait til the right time.

We had a dog. We did not hear him bark if he did.

It took me 35 years to feel safe in my house again.

I am not at all surprised that all kinds of things can happen in a house and not be detected at the time.

 

[GrainneDhu]

- Danielle Van Dam case 2002. Within 3 days the neighbor was the main suspect. He was arrested convicted and sent to death row.

- Polly Klaas 1993. Parents divorced. Polly lived with mom as primary custodial parent. Taken from home during slumber party with 2 friends. Richard Allen Davis eventually arrested, convicted, and is on death row.

- Elizabeth Smart 2002. Taken from her bed while little sister pretended to be asleep.

I'm not that familiar with the Van Damme case so I'll leave it alone.

In the Polly Klaas case, there were two eyewitnesses (her friends at the sleepover). Mark Klaas was interviewed and polygraphed but since his appearance differed markedly from the eyewitness descriptions, he was never really a suspect.

In the Elizabeth Smart case, again, there was an eyewitness. Her sister was quite definite that it was not one of her own parents but public opinion fingered both Ed Smart and his brother right up until Elizabeth was found.

So in two out of those three cases, there was at least one eyewitness to the abduction who was able to rule out the parents.

 

[mamamia54]

I agree with the person on Fox news that LE has very good suspicions about who is responsible for Isa's disappearance. All the clues LE has hinted at so far pretty much scream they are focused on the father.

Of course even in resolved cases there are those who insist that LE had to have gotten it all wrong and some other, possibly more convoluted, scenario had to have happened because that's what their mind has settled on.

Then do you also agree with his statement about being so close to the Mexican border that it's at least a possibility?

 

[Deleted member 718]

Unlikely a common burglar would even walk past a man allegedly asleep on the sofa........so much more unlikely that a child abductor would do the same, without being prepared to injure or kill anyone who gets in his way. With that said, it is difficult for me to believe a stranger was inside the home that night.

MOO

I don't think the abductor was in the home. Isa was lured outside. She walked past her sleeping dad and out the door. Still an abduction as she was taken unwillingly from her yard. Even Sergio and LE doubt the window was the access point. IMO

I'll play the devil's advocate today. :seeya:

 

[FrayedKnot]

In re: the Fox News video-

I do find it interesting that Paul Birmingham, who is the News Director for KNST ( I think I heard that right) in AZ, when asked for his opinion on what happened to Isa, said that his FEELING (not fact) was that there was another crime at the heart of this, be it abuse, or trafficking-drug or human. He said it was just his sense due to being a lifelong member of the community paired with the proximity to the border.

HOWEVER....the voiceover in the video montage at the beginning said that SC was "banned" from seeing the boys. And this is not true, I don't think. I was under the impression that SC volunteered not to see them.

So grain of salt, ya know.....


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[mamamia54]

I don't think the abductor was in the home. Isa was lured outside. She walked past her sleeping dad and out the door. Still an abduction as she was taken unwillingly from her yard. Even Sergio and LE doubt the window was the access point. IMO

I'll play the devil's advocate today. :seeya:

To me that's a HUGE possibility, because I've said this before, after Becky put her hair into a pigtail, and dad asked if she wanted something to eat and she says, "no daddy I'm tired", we don't know when and if she ended up in bed, which bed she actually slept in that particular night.

 

[Madeleine74]

I'm curious...why do people think they know better than the very agencies that are actually doing the investigation and have numerous details and real case information leading them?

The TPD and the FBI are heading in a specific direction. That direction does not match the theories and speculation conjured up. What facts are taking folks in directions that are counter to what is happening in the case?

Who's in the position to better know what's going on in the case? Those are the ones I'm watching and paying attention to.

 

[Lava]

CPS can just make something up about you and there's nothing you can do about it?

You can definitely dispute it. If there is evidence of physical abuse then there should obviously be evidence. But it isn't always about something that can be physically proven. Again, only my experience, but with my sister someone reported her because they claimed her oldest child at 1 year, picked up a crack pipe and put it in his mouth. Obviously, that is not something that can be proven (although we all believed it happened). This is what ended up opening the case. Her then husband didn't want to cooperate with with DCF, and had an extensive drug history. The case workers (not psychologist) noticed that my sister was extremely dependent on the husband and other people had told them that he had physically abused her (although again, no proof). But this was the base of the DCF case when it was brought before a judge, and with no actual proof her kids were taken. Now, let me just say that it was the right thing to do and probably saved both her and her kids lives, but it didn't follow the traditional court procedures that I was used to.

Throughout her case, which went around 12-14 months there were several times where evidence wasn't brought in and the judge just took peoples word for it - both DCF and my sister. At the time, her children were with me, and she had gone off and remarried someone else, who was way worse than the first guy. We had evidence of his criminal record and warrants that were out for his arrest and gave them to DCF - DCF did not show this to the judge once. There was also a time when He claimed he made over $100,000 a year. Despite our protesting he was not made to prove this claim. It was extremely frustrating and I learned a pretty big lesson that Family Court does not play by the same rules as Criminal Court - although they should.

 

[Lava]

I'm curious...why do people think they know better than the very agencies that are actually doing the investigation and have numerous details and real case information leading them?

The TPD and the FBI are heading in a specific direction. That direction does not match the theories and speculation conjured up. What facts are taking folks in directions that are counter to what is happening in the case?

Who's in the position to better know what's going on in the case? Those are the ones I'm watching and paying attention to.

BBM - What direction is this, because they certainly haven't come out and said it.

 

[Prof]

I'm trying to type and keep up at the same time and it's nearly impossible. Forgive me if I've missed something. I know I'm referencing a post from a few pages ago.

A recent post from Gliving referenced an Arizona Daily star article where Sgt. Hawke discussed previous TPD calls.

Hawke said "They're very minimal. When I do a check of the residence, there virtually is no contact there prior to most recently"

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/crim...3ea7b14ee.html

This may not be a "dead horse" since there are so many earlier posts on whether LE has really said that the prior CPS visit was MINOR.

When I listened to last Thursday's media briefing (MAY 17), I thought that the discussion of the previous calls to the Celis home could lead to confusion. Hawke was actually asked several different questions (some about CPS and some about TPD visits).

This is from memory and I'm paraphrasing but it is supported by the Star article. (Is it OK to paraphrase, if I refer to the statements in a specific press briefing?) I'm looking for a FULL transcript and link for that briefing, maybe you already have it.

From what I remember, when asked about the December CPS call, Hawke admitted that they knew about it and gave the regular TPD response about not commenting on CPS cases. Then she referred the questioner to the CPS spokesperson. As usual, she wouldn't give any additional information on the CPS involvement and that was the end of the CPS answers.

Later in the briefing, I believe she was asked about previous TPD calls to the house and she admitted that there had been calls in the past. The questioner tried to find out when. She said she didn't even know if the Celis family lived there then. The questioner said Celis had owned home for 5 years, and tried to find out the specific time frame of the calls. She didn't give a direct answer.

Then to end that line of questioning, I think she basically summarized by saying that the calls were MINOR and minimal in nature . She appeared to be talking only about the TPD calls, she had already said she would NOT comment on CPS calls. The TPD calls could even be referring to the dog citations and therefore would not involve Isa.

If I understood correctly, she said no comment on CPS calls and that the TPD calls were Minor (minimal). Soon after this briefing, media and commentors were saying that LE had said that the December CPS call was MINOR.

Since LE has been so careful to parse their words in this case, it doesn't seem likely that they told certain media sources that the CPS call was MINOR after the briefing. They have steadfastly refused to comment on any CPS matter in the past.

IMO, the media listened to the briefing, didn't distinguish between CPS and TPD calls, and then ran with the story.

Can anyone help me find either the full video or full transcript of the 5/17 briefing? I'm trying to refresh my memory. I thought a full transcript would be easy to find.

Several here have used the Today show as the source for the report that the prior CPS call was minor. I usually go to KVOA for video of past press briefings, but the now the 5/17 video has been shortened to include only the explanation of abduction, not the question/answer portion.

If the calls that were "MINOR and NOT involving Isabel" really referred to TPD calls and not CPS, then I think we're basing opinions on mistaken reporting. And we're back to knowing nothing about the extent of previous or current CPS involvement. (which I think is the way LE and CPS want it left for now.)

Bumping up
and providing the link to full presser you were looking for, Kat..

At about 1:43 in the tape Hawke is asked about CPS visit in December. She states several times that TPD will make no comment on the nature of the visit and makes it clear the press will need to contact the spokepserson there.

At about 6:00 in the tape Hawke is asked about TPD calls to the residence. This is where she makes her minor or minimal in nature statement-- [that NBC mistook for a comment on CPS in their report.] c'mon media!

Full presser from May 17, 2012
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/category/179377/video-center

bbm
Thank you so much for you post, Kat.

 

[Madeleine74]

I'm not that familiar with the Van Damme case so I'll leave it alone.

In the Polly Klaas case, there were two eyewitnesses (her friends at the sleepover). Mark Klaas was interviewed and polygraphed but since his appearance differed markedly from the eyewitness descriptions, he was never really a suspect.

In the Elizabeth Smart case, again, there was an eyewitness. Her sister was quite definite that it was not one of her own parents but public opinion fingered both Ed Smart and his brother right up until Elizabeth was found.

So in two out of those three cases, there was at least one eyewitness to the abduction who was able to rule out the parents.

That wasn't gliving's question though. The question was "what prior case was there a child abduction where the parents were home and ruled out?" gliving didn't give qualifiers like, "no witness present," or "parents had to have been ruled out within the first 12 hours" or "the parents weren't given lie detector tests."

In all of those cases, the parents were ruled out.

Here's another one:

- Jessica Lunford

Here's what all those child abduction cases had in common as well: 1 month into the case, none of the parents were still under investigation; all had been ruled out by then. Many had arrests already.

Now let's compare cases in which the child has never been found (or not found yet) and at least one parent remains under a cloud of suspicion:

- Sabrina Aisenberg
- Maddy McCann
- Lisa Irwin
- Kyron Horman
- Isa Celis

 

[FrayedKnot]

Does that rule out the drug cartel smuggling aliens connection?

AFAIK, LE hasn't ruled anything out.

And a local news director stated on Fox that he thought trafficking was a possibility. It was just his opinion, of course, but seems to be shared by many people.

As for aliens, I don't know. I never saw anyone post about drug cartel smuggling aliens. I must have missed that link.


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[Lark2]

Occam's Razor is not really that the most common explanation is the right one, rather than the explanation that needs the fewest assumptions.

There was question earlier that the neighbor might have changed her story but I don't see a change here.

She's just reporting local rumors, much as we have discussed here, and not saying that she ever saw any suspicious activity at the home.

Just wanted to say, so many of your posts resonate with me. :woohoo:

 

[Boodles]

I am going to re-post something from a couple weeks ago that I think is pertinent now with so many doubting that the family could have slept through whatever happened:
Regarding being able to get into a house and not be heard, this is what happened to me.
When I was about 20 I was staying at my parent's house. One night, my parents in their bedroom, I was in mine with door closed. We were all asleep. Cat burglars (LE called them that) came into our home, into my parent's bedroom and proceeded to steal things from the top of the dresser. They removed an entire drawer which contained jewelry and carried it out into an orange grove nearby to sort through it. The chilling thing was that they removed a belt from my mother's shorts which she had left only about 2 or 3 feet from where she slept. This belt was later found discarded with a two by four, which LE said was to use as a weapon, and likely the belt to be used to tie someone up. Thank god, no one woke up!

Mind you, as a twenty year old, I had tried to sneak into that room while she was asleep and borrow jewelry and that drawer always squeaked and she ALWAYS woke up!

They also took various items from a spare room including a bag that looked like a purse, but only contained a wet bathing suit - I liked that they found a soggy suit when they expected loot.

They made several trips in and out of the house (through the back door they had broken into) even taking an entire case of liquor from the bar.

They did not enter my room, I suppose because the door was closed, it wasn't locked, just closed.

LE told us often these people will wait outside, listening. They know that a certain length of time after retiring, turning lights off, is when people are in their soundest sleep. They listen to people saying goodnight, turning lights off, then wait til the right time.

We had a dog. We did not hear him bark if he did.

It took me 35 years to feel safe in my house again.

I am not at all surprised that all kinds of things can happen in a house and not be detected at the time.

That's a terrifying story. The thought of it makes my heart palpitate! Glad no one was hurt!

But those are cat burglars, and that's what they do. No one stole anything from the Celis home that we're aware of.

The only other super quiet kind of crime I have heard of is the Manson family when they "creepy crawled".

I just don't think an abductor would be that skilled at being silent.

 

[Lark2]

AFAIK, LE hasn't ruled anything out.

And a local news director stated on Fox that he thought trafficking was a possibility. It was just his opinion, of course, but seems to be shared by many people.

As for aliens, I don't know. I never saw anyone post about drug cartel smuggling aliens. I must have missed that link.

Hey, don't forget the gun runners.

 

[Lark2]

i dont believe it was a stranger abduction...at all. and i dont think LE does either.

Cripes, they even told media that.

 

[Eileen730]

I would like to know if the parents hadbeen drug tested!