AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[winterrose]

I know I am posting without properly catching up, but thank you for this post, Lava. It is exactly how I feel.

I did read about the vigil last night as well as listen (video afterwards) to SC's sister and RC. I came away being very upset because SC was in such focus, Of course the sister and RC would take up for SC, but at a prayer vigil for beautiful little Isa? Not proper, IMO. Call a PC and say what you will, but focus on Isa at a vigil for her.

I did get chills when I saw him peeking over that wall. It really was weird and creepy, IMO. I hope the son did not see him, but I hope LE sees the video.

I am deeply disappointed in RC and her words concerning SC. That was not the time. I am more concerned and worried for little ISA than ever now that her aunt and mother seem to be all about SC. I also did not care for the look of excitement on RC's face. Had it been my daughter and so many people were there just for her, I would have been an emotional mess. I would have been so thankful. She almost seemed excited and enjoying herself, IMO.

IMO, so much made about SC at the vigil for ISA took away from it.

I will not even duck any tomatoes being thrown at me for this post. Too many opinions have been attacked when it is clearly stated it is an opinion. Well, this is mine.

MOO, MOO, MOO

Exactly what I'm saying, it was more like public relations to keep up the public image and not as much focused on Isa, on a number of occassions. I'll duck too, cause I learned awhile back, don't get caught up in defending either parent, if they're not cleared. Don't criticize someone elses' opinion, because they may be right and don't be surprised at what more can come out about a parent in LE investigations. JMO

 

[Deleted member 718]

ITA & in these kinds of cases, it is not so much what LE says; it is watching what they do. I find it more valuable to find out who they search, who they talk to and figure out who the focus is on.

So far LE interviewed over 500 sex offenders. To me, that's an indication of their focus. Although LE says they aren't going down one path.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I also believe it would be serious enough that if there weren't voluntary compliance they know it is likely they didn't want to face the possibility of losing in court, or have the issue go that far. However wouldn't it also be normal for them to seek legal advice before agreeing if it didn't seem to be a serious matter, there was some disagreement, or totally innocent of whatever allegations caused the no contact order?

MOO

I don't know about Arizona but in my state, the deal with CPS is that either you make a "voluntary" agreement to follow their plan or they remove your children from your custody until you can get a hearing. There is a time limit on the hearing but the time limit is for business days only and does not include weekends or federal holidays.

CPS refuses to tell you whether your children will go to a foster home together, will be in separate foster homes, will be in a group home together, be separated into different group homes or what. In some (well publicised) cases, children as young as 8 years old were sent to juvenile detention facilities because there were no foster facilities available!!!

Typically CPS comes to the parents with these "choices" late on a Friday afternoon or on a weekend, so that the parents know the clock won't start ticking until Monday (that much longer their children will be Ghods know where).

If you even hint you want to ask a lawyer, then you are deemed to have refused to cooperate with the CPS plan and your children are removed from your custody until the hearing.

So the deal is: cooperate or your children will be taken from you immediately and held for 3 or more days with no guarantees as to what conditions they will be held in.

SC and RC had to know that their children are already traumatised. It is unknown how long they were given to make up their minds or what the consequences would have been had they said "we'd like to talk to our lawyer first."

Even if they know they are completely innocent, they may have agreed because it seemed like the best option out of a set of bad options.

 

[Patty G]

yeah not sure how an adult would get himself and a 44 lb girl thru that little opening....w/out her fighting and screaming and all of that...

unless they were a small shorty like me lol....even then it would not be easy!!

It is the full size window, not the little ones high up. The full size window is a window that is easy to get in an out of, however, I do not think that is the point of entry or exit.

 

[elmomom]

I'm curious...why do people think they know better than the very agencies that are actually doing the investigation and have numerous details and real case information leading them?

The TPD and the FBI are heading in a specific direction. That direction does not match the theories and speculation conjured up. What facts are taking folks in directions that are counter to what is happening in the case?

Who's in the position to better know what's going on in the case? Those are the ones I'm watching and paying attention to.

Sometimes I take cues from LE and sometimes I am suspicious of LE. As in this case. If they have evidence than why oh why do they feel it necessary to leak out what amounts to a smear campaign against SC? It is one thing to keep your cards close to your vest, but quite another to systematically try and win public sentiment before stating your case. IMHO, this has been done, much to my dismay, before. And in those cases, the case never goes to trial, but LE has caused the family untold grief and misery. And in some cases I believe they were misguided and that the guilty party was never found.

Do you always believe in LE? Do you truly believe that everyone in prison is actually guilty? When I start seeing some actual EVIDENCE, then maybe I can agree that SC is guilty. Until then, no, a smear campaign is just that. The sign of a possibly desperate LE trying to make a case when there actually isn't one.

 

[Patty G]

In looking at the picture, something came to mind with seeing the electrical box there, had their been a power outage the night before, as a poster who I'm not going to mention told us, about a possible transformer blowing, if people at the home had awakened to no power that morning, would anyone gone out there to see if the power box had an issues? Just wondering to myself and thought I'd post.

If I have no power in my house, I first go to my breaker box, if all is well, then I call the Power Company, and check with my neighbor to see if they have power. On my street, sometimes my side loses power, but across the street they still have power.

I would never go and check my electrical meter.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Well apparently the neighbor talked about cartel rumors....I was :banghead: on that one because, really if you thought that was true would you go on the darn news and give your name and location?
So in essence I agree with you Ocean.

MOO

But (sigh) she said she didnt even know this family.:maddening:

imo

 

[Prof]

Isa's bedroom is next to the Den. SC stated he was on the opposite side of the wall from Isa, so that could be the family room or the den. I am thinking he was more in the famly room.

In the pic below, Isa's bedroom is the one with the full window.

Yes, thanks. I am just pointing out that there are other possibilities...
He could have been in the den, or the family room since they both have adjoining walls. IMO if there is a TV in the den, that would be the place that is least likely to disturb all of the family, as the den has only one adjoing wall. We just don't know.

Why was I making my point?
It seems that some may be discounting the possibility of a stranger abduction
a. because a stranger would have a hard time taking her out the window
b. because a stranger would not carry her out passed her sleeping father on the couch

I am saying there are other possibilities which would not necessitate taking her out the window, or carrying her passed Sergio...

 

[Dee10]

So far LE interviewed over 500 sex offenders. To me, that's an indication of their focus. Although LE says they aren't going down one path.

That is a very good point; I wonder if they are still doing it.

 

[Madeleine74]

While that is true in most cases, in this case LE has even specifically said how many officers are working on the family, and how many are working on other avenues. I think it is clear they have a suspect in mind, but I think it is also clear they honestly haven't ruled anything out.

I've never seen a case (not involving a manhunt) in which LE said exactly what they were thinking and specified exactly which avenue was their primary one. They always couch media interviews, covering a broader spectrum. What's clear is that they have not ruled out the parents. They explicitly said so. One month later and the parents cannot be ruled out?

They have evidence and interviews and data that we don't have and we won't know about unless there's a trial. It doesn't take a FOX news legal eagle to tell us the cops are focused on SC, but the legal eagle(s) have indeed said it, so there's another confirmation from someone who's in the legal biz.

 

[prima.facie]

It is the full size window, not the little ones high up. The full size window is a window that is easy to get in an out of, however, I do not think that is the point of entry or exit.

it may be full size in comparison to the little ones...but when the window is open, it is not open the full size of the entire window. only the small lower portion. IMO, no way on earth an adult with a child could get thru that....you would have to push the child out then the adult squeeze thru.

is there a photo of the window anywhere with an adult standing next to it?

my perception of the size could be totally off, I admit that!

 

[cluciano63]

I find the fact that they have been checking on RSO's to show that they did NOT simply zero in on the family, as some have suggested, and if they keep coming back to them, there must be a reason. JMO

 

[mamamia54]

If I have no power in my house, I first go to my breaker box, if all is well, then I call the Power Company, and check with my neighbor to see if they have power. On my street, sometimes my side loses power, but across the street they still have power.

I would never go and check my electrical meter.

I guess, yes, I would first go to the inside breaker box, then I might go outside just to check and see if anything is amiss. I suppose with my thinking, I'm attempting to figure out how anyone found the screen pushed or taken out of Isa's window, and trying to put that together with the electric box.

 

[prima.facie]

Sometimes I take cues from LE and sometimes I am suspicious of LE. As in this case. If they have evidence than why oh why do they feel it necessary to leak out what amounts to a smear campaign against SC? It is one thing to keep your cards close to your vest, but quite another to systematically try and win public sentiment before stating your case. IMHO, this has been done, much to my dismay, before. And in those cases, the case never goes to trial, but LE has caused the family untold grief and misery. And in some cases I believe they were misguided and that the guilty party was never found.

Do you always believe in LE? Do you truly believe that everyone in prison is actually guilty? When I start seeing some actual EVIDENCE, then maybe I can agree that SC is guilty. Until then, no, a smear campaign is just that. The sign of a possibly desperate LE trying to make a case when there actually isn't one.

maybe because when the pressure is on, people slip up and make mistakes.....
i believe this happened often in the lisa irwin case....

maybe they are putting indirect pressure on SC...hoping he will slip up or snap or make some contacts to people....

but i believe from what has been shown that their focus is more on SC than on some stranger or RSO abduction.....

but who knows.....just my assumption...

 

[Madeleine74]

So far LE interviewed over 500 sex offenders. To me, that's an indication of their focus. Although LE says they aren't going down one path.

To conduct a full investigation LE has to rule out various people. To not interview the RSOs in the area would be shirking their responsibilities. Can you imagine the backlash if LE said "nahhh...we don't need to talk to any of the sex offenders..." They rule people out as they go. Their focus isn't on the RSOs, their focus is and has been primarily inside the Celis house and car and family. Interviewing and ruling out is the way it works. And those who cannot be ruled out get an ever closer looksee by LE.

Of all the investigators on the case, I doubt the lead investigator(s) are the ones doing the RSO interviews. Those would likely be handled by lower ranking officers. What are the leads working on? There's your best clue.

 

[Donjeta]

Is there a reason to think that the power was out that night?

 

[Madeleine74]

If they have evidence than why oh why do they feel it necessary to leak out what amounts to a smear campaign against SC?

What smear campaign?
What has LE said, exactly?

"Can't rule out the family."
"SC signed a voluntary agreement with CPS and is not living at home and the children are with RC."
Release of partial 911 calls -- the calls are what they are and nobody embellished their content.

What else? Are the cops smearing SC or is it the public and the media?

The media cameras camp out and capture the comings and goings of the police in and out of the Celis home. That's not the police's fault. Which LE person has gone on NG or JVM or Fox to smear SC? LE has done controlled press conferences that have not really said much of anything.

 

[mamamia54]

Is there a reason to think that the power was out that night?

Not anything official. Just a local I think, talking about a possible transformer on Isa's street blowing, it was one of those late night conversations here.

 

[panthera]

Yes, thanks. I am just pointing out that there are other possibilities...
He could have been in the den, or the family room since they both have adjoining walls. IMO if there is a TV in the den, that would be the place that is least likely to disturb all of the family, as the den has only one adjoing wall. We just don't know.

Why was I making my point?
It seems that some may be discounting the possibility of a stranger abduction
a. because a stranger would have a hard time taking her out the window
b. because a stranger would not carry her out passed her sleeping father on the couch

I am saying there are other possibilities which would not necessitate taking her out the window, or carrying her passed Sergio...

Absolutely. If the sofa is in the den, it would have been much easier for someone to have carried Isabel through the house and out the front door. However, I still believe this person would have to know the layout of the house before entering, know where everyone was, including the dogs, before making such a move.

MOO

 

[Prof]

So, if they went thru the doors, then someone locked up behind them...
because mom said the door was locked. however, she didnt say which door and if both were....but according to her, at least one was closed.

so if dad was in family room, the napper would have to go thru there and KNOW where the door(s) were...they would need to know the layout of the house inside....even we couldnt seem to get it straight w/out a floorplan in front of us. on top of that...no dogs alerting....and dad didnt hear a thing.


eh....this case is :rage::censored:

Here's the thing. There are many doors. Did she really check all the doors that morning on her way to work? she did not even check on Isa.
It makes no sense to me.
Also, we have seen how this family enters the house through the garage. Did she leave for work from that door?
We don't know, but there are combinations of possibilities that make me still not rule out the stranger abduction possibility.
That's all..