AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 9

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  • #221
I believe Joseph Duncan later said that the Groene dogs ran away as soon as they saw his gun (and it's true, my own dogs are scared of guns though they've never seen them fired). For some reason I just find that interesting, and wonder what would have happened if he had showed up with a knife and not a gun.

IMHO, the dogs were terrified of him because of his manner and the evil surrounding him - not necessarily because of the weapon he used. Animals are smart and they feared for their lives.

Duncan killed 3 people, kidnapped 2, and later killed one of those, and continued to sexually abuse an 8 year old girl for weeks. He intended to kill whoever stood in his way, so he would never have entered the house with just a knife - he intended to use the gun.
 
  • #222
BBM - There are times, we just never find our keys! I just used "keys" as an example of a trival misplacement. It was not intended as an example for a missing child.

Obviously.

I have lived in my current home for 2 years. I have locked my keys inside ONCE in about 700 days.

It doesn't happen often, but it has happened.

I know people who have bought groceries, gone to get their car to load them, gotten distracted and forgotten their cart completely. One actually hollered at her kids for having consumed an entire jar of peanut butter in ONE DAY before she realized she did not recall bringing the bags inside the house. She checked the car, SURE she had loaded them, but had not.

I know a woman who ordered food at McDs drive thru, paid at the first window, then drove right past the second window and several blocks up the road before realizing what she had done.

People accidentally leaving a child behind somewhere sounds negletful and nearly impossible, but it does happen from time to time, and not just in the Home Alone movies! :)
 
  • #223
I personally don't see this as like Shasta's case....the location for one. JMO
Anyway, we get it, it has been done before.

As far as the parents...after waiting so long, the suspense for when they DO speak out will be so great, that the scrutiny will be even greater. Better, IMO, to speak out all along, or have someone do it for you, if you cannot. Now, the focus will be be on why they waited to speak out again...

JMO
 
  • #224
  • #225
Forgive me as I am still catching up but the "Forcible Rape-Female" thing is really throwing me?? This is th charge thats listed as occurring at the girls' grandparents home with whom they were visiting is my understanding.. But I dont believe I've ever seen a child molestation charge worded or charged the way this is.. I could be completely wrong(and probably am) so could someone who knows say whether this is standard way a charge for what we've been told occurred to read?

TIA.. Back to catching up in hopes I'll be done by time the presser starts..


____________________...
Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy:
 
  • #226
I believe Joseph Duncan later said that the Groene dogs ran away as soon as they saw his gun (and it's true, my own dogs are scared of guns though they've never seen them fired). For some reason I just find that interesting, and wonder what would have happened if he had showed up with a knife and not a gun.

I got one of my dogs before we owned any guns. He is way to sensitive to try any sort of gun shy training now. But we have a semi-temporary German Shepherd Dog, and she was trained to go nuts if she sees a gun. She isn't a Schutzhund by any means, but that is one thing her previous owner taught her. It will definitely be something I teach future dogs, and I'd recommend others doing it too.
 
  • #227
My point, and perhaps others who were mentioning kidnappings by strangers, is that it is a narrow view to write off possibilities simply because there were adults and/or dogs in the home, when other cases have shown us it is possible to kidnap someone in those circumstances. Right now in the case, we have no solid evidence that would point to a family member, stranger, or neighbor. So, to write off one possibility because of the presence of others in the house is a bit premature, because as other cases have shown us, it CAN happen. That's the only reason these other kidnapping cases keep being brought up - because people keep bringing up the presence her family and the dogs.
I promise that right now I'm not ruling out anything! I just don't like comparing five or six other cases that have similar details because there is so much we don't know about this family and this situation so far.

In every child disappearance people tend to get swept away by one idea or another, and that's natural. But extraneous details from other cases can confuse people, too. Right now in the past two pages there have been five or six posts about some case with dogs that were killed, and a few weeks from now someone will remember that detail because it was on this thread and think it happened to the Celis' dogs. That's just something I've seen happen many times, unfortunately. JMOO
 
  • #228
I am not one of the ones who wants them to speak out. I changed my mind about that after the third day. I learned early on they arent going to say anything even if they do PCs for the next two months.

PCs are held to give additional information. What additional information have we learned and in two days it will be 2 weeks since Isa went missing?

imo

My last paragraph wasn't directed at you, I was just adding some thoughts. Sorry, should have clarified that.
 
  • #229
And one of the dogs was an aggressive Pit Bill that Steve Greone's son owned.. who said he knew a stranger could never get by his dog ...that the perp would be eaten alive.

IMO


Snipped & BBM :

:seeya:

Just had an idea, and it is "pretty far out there" : but did they "test" the dogs for "drugs" ? Maybe the perp gave the dog a "treat" and put some "drug" in it so the dog would "mellow out" and not bark ?

I know ... that is "far fetched" ... but nothing would surprise me ...

JMO, but I find it hard to believe that a dog is NOT going to BARK at a "stranger" who enters the dog's "territory" in the middle of the night ...

Sorry for the disruption so back to topic ... Where is Isabel ?

:moo::moo::moo:
 
  • #230
  • #231
Exactly. Tori Stafford's mom kept herself in the media, and people ripped her to shreds, sure that she had done it. Susan Smith acted as you "should" and fooled a lot of people. There have been cases where parents spoke to the media convincingly - and killed their kids. There are others where they are innocent. There have been other cases where parents did not speak - and had nothing to do with their child's death. Choosing to speak is not a barometer of guilt.

It is easy to play armchair quarterback and say how you would act in a certain situation. It is easy to say how parents "should" act in these situations. But we've seen a wide variety of responses across many cases because people are different. We handle stress differently. We express our emotions differently. Our gender, age, culture, and region all effect how we react to certain situations. Judging someone else by your own yardstick isn't a good way to determine guilt or proper behavior, in my opinion.

BBM

I think one reason LE was skeptical of Susan Smith from the beginning is that she stated black man stole her car with the children still in it - said she was stopped at an out of the way intersection at a traffic light.
If that were the case, all she had to do was step on the gas and hightail it out of there - crisis averted. Her children would have been alive. No amount of hysterical crying and saying MY BABIES, MY BABIES could make LE believe her.

My point being parents talking to the media, giving interviews cannot IMO indicate whether they are guilty or not guilty.
 
  • #232
I promise that right now I'm not ruling out anything! I just don't like comparing five or six other cases that have similar details because there is so much we don't know about this family and this situation so far.

In every child disappearance people tend to get swept away by one idea or another, and that's natural. But extraneous details from other cases can confuse people, too. Right now in the past two pages there have been five or six posts about some case with dogs that were killed, and a few weeks from now someone will remember that detail because it was on this thread and think it happened to the Celis' dogs. That's just something I've seen happen many times, unfortunately. JMOO

Than I think we were trying to make the same point :woohoo:
 
  • #233
It's not the lack of noise that I am concerned with. How on earth could he subdue 3 little girls at one time, or 2 others while he's molesting 1? At least one of them should have been able to run out the door and run to their mother or another adult, and that's what most scared kids would do, if they were not held or tied down. This has me puzzled.

Elizabeth Smart's sister just lay there, frozen in fear as he took Elizabeth. She then lay there for hours after he left with her sister, too scared to move.

Kids quite often freeze up when terrified.

Frayed Knot wrote, "...statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable...I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family."

Praise God for some common sense! My posts keep getting removed, but I'll give it another try.

If Isabel's parents were at least showing up at the Search Command Center every day, I would suspend disbeleif (for now). However, their histrionic performance the ONE time they deigned to address the masses, coupled with their silence since, tell me the parents are not frantically looking for Isabel.

Who is the sex offender or kidnapper or bogeyman capable of abducting a six year old child out of her house without waking the parents, the brothers, or the dogs? And how did this magical person spirit her away without anyone seeing him do so?

In the court of law, one is assumed innocent until proven guilty. However, if your child disappears when he/she is under your care, you have some explaining to do!

<modsnip>. If my little boy were grabbed, my only concern would be getting him back, especially in the first weeks. My point is that innocent parents are not going to focus on their own reputations. Almost everybody was supicious of Ed Smart in the early days after Elizabeth was kidnapped, but he hung in there and cooperated with the cops and people stopped pointing fingers long before his daughter was even found.

I susect the Tuscon police have much more than they are telling the public. Watch for the Celises to get a hot shot defense attorney very soon.

You are very right, IMO, that statistically speaking, it's the parents. Stranger abductions are, in fact, exceedingly rare. So it makes a lot of sense to look at the parents. Less rare is an abduction by someone who knows the child, like another relative, friend or neighbor, which was my instinct. Now with this molester who came through a window and apparently raped at least one of three little girls, in Tuscon, I'm thinking there just might be a scary predator on the loose.

But boogey men do come in homes and take kids. It happened, as other have said, to Elizabeth Smart, Polly Klaas, the Groene kids and Jessica Lunsford.

I think there are solid reasons to wonder about the parents, about a boogey man or about someone known to that family. IMO, any one of those theories is a possibility with what we know now.

:seeya: I am not familiar with these cases, but could you tell me did the "perp" also kill the dogs ?

TIA !

No, he broke in and killed the Mom, her boyfriend and an older brother.
The dogs hid from him the whole time.
He abducted Dylan and Shasta. He ultimately killed Dylan but brought Shasta back alive.

Shasta was NOT killed, just to be clear. She was taken to a Denny's where she was recognized.
It was AWESOME. :woohoo:

Clarification, he did not bring Shasta back. An alert waitress recognized her and called police while slowly delaying their meal.

doggone, you should read up on that case if you have the stomach. It is most horrific. The monster was a pedophile who had been released after serving only five or six years for molesting small children. He then stalked the family, spying on them with night vision goggles and watching their home for days.

He came in at night and overpowered adults and the older kids, tying them all up. He then bludgeoned to death both adults and the older, teen boy, while the pit bulls hid. Right before he did that, though, he made the mom wake up and call Shasta and Dylan, IIRC and he took them and put them in his vehicle before coming back and killing the whole, remaining family.

He then took the kids to a remote campsite where he tortured Dylan for days on end and raped them both repeatedly. He took video of what he did. He also showed Shasta exactly how he stalked her family. He killed Dylan and made Shasta watch the video. he then went on the road with Shasta. You can see surveillance video of her walking in a gas station with him, shortly before she was rescued at the Dennys.

The monster is also responsible for the death of 10 year old Anthony Martinez who went missing in California and was found dead in the desert and he is suspected in many other missing kid cases.

Yes, it is rare but it is possible.

P.S., I didn't find the Celis parents to be "histrionic" in their presser at all.

I respect anyone that doesn't hold the same belief I do.

I do not fault these parents for what they decide to do. I am not........thank God ........sitting here knowing my precious child has being ripped away from me and having to think about I may never get to see her again alive.

What good did it do for them to speak out the first time they did? Did the kidnapper bring her home? No. Is he going to bring her back home alive? No, imo. Were they critisized when they did speak out? Yes. Maybe they saw the backlash on the evening talk shows? Maybe their freinds told them how the internet is buzzing against them even more since they spoke out. Who knows.

Imo

I would disagree a bit. People watching them will think about this case. The emotion of seeing the parents of a missing child may really resonate and could spark them to suddenly remember something or put a few things together, like suspicious behavior on the part of someone they know.

Then, there was the case of Brittany Mae Smith, the 12 year old taken on a cross-country trek by her adult abductor after her mother had been killed in their home in Virginia. Brittany was spotted in San Francisco by a woman who had seen her case on NG and recognized her. http://abcnews.go.com/US/good-samar...e-smith-speaks/story?id=12390014#.T6BG3lJwhK0

I think it is a mistake not to be out there in front of the cameras. I'd be more desperate to do whatever it takes to find my baby than concerned about public perception or LE picking apart my every facial expression.
 
  • #234
Any recaps of the day? I am lost.
 
  • #235
Obviously.

I have lived in my current home for 2 years. I have locked my keys inside ONCE in about 700 days.

It doesn't happen often, but it has happened.

I know people who have bought groceries, gone to get their car to load them, gotten distracted and forgotten their cart completely. One actually hollered at her kids for having consumed an entire jar of peanut butter in ONE DAY before she realized she did not recall bringing the bags inside the house. She checked the car, SURE she had loaded them, but had not.

I know a woman who ordered food at McDs drive thru, paid at the first window, then drove right past the second window and several blocks up the road before realizing what she had done.

People accidentally leaving a child behind somewhere sounds negletful and nearly impossible, but it does happen from time to time, and not just in the Home Alone movies! :)

Oh, my gosh. That reminded me of something that happened years ago when I was a child. It had to have been around 1970 (+/- 2 yrs). We lived in southern CA at the time. A family with a bunch of kids had gone to the mountains (somewhere in CA) to see the snow, I think, and they forgot one of their children. I believe it was a girl and it seems like she may have frozen to death. I remember my mother being appalled that anyone could forget a child. Is anyone here old enough to remember who that was?
 
  • #236
  • #237
Forgive me as I am still catching up but the "Forcible Rape-Female" thing is really throwing me?? This is th charge thats listed as occurring at the girls' grandparents home with whom they were visiting is my understanding.. But I dont believe I've ever seen a child molestation charge worded or charged the way this is.. I could be completely wrong(and probably am) so could someone who knows say whether this is standard way a charge for what we've been told occurred to read?

TIA.. Back to catching up in hopes I'll be done by time the presser starts..


____________________...
Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy:



I am not sure I exactly understand your post, but there are no charges as there has been no arrest. The map is for crime prevention purposes only. The link I provided comes with a disclaimer that I suggested posters to read.
The map is made when collecting reports from various agencies. The disclaimer states that information is not always accurate. This is less than 24 hours old, so we don't know real details. I thought it was kind of scary to see that on the map. Other incidents on the map use other language for other types of assaults. What I am saying, is we do not know what kind of crime exactly it is, yet.
 
  • #238
  • #239
You all do such a great job, and discuss everything, I wonder if the family has no idea that them not getting in front of the cameras is causing questions. Why they do this, why they didn't do that. They might not have any idea. Some families just don't use the internet, much. Maybe its in the news idk. For me or any close friend, family I would want them in the news. But that's because I follow cases and see the importance of it. If I was not maybe it would not cross my mind so much.
 
  • #240
Can't watch the presser. Grateful to those of you who can!
 
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