BELIZE - Alison MacKenzie, 43, tourist, from AZ, Rendezvous Caye, 18 Jan 2020

[cobalt sky]

Been casually following this case, forgive me if this has already been discussed and I missed it...what isn't clear to me is the situation of what boats go back and forth to this island. We know the catamaran used for the tour was docked there. Do other boats/water vessels visit the island to bring supplies, remove garbage, etc? And do they do so during the day, or at night? And how often? Are there logs/records kept of what vessels arrive/leave the island?

Because to me, the only thing that makes sense at this point, is that for whatever reason, someone took her off of the island (in a boat or other water vessel). Maybe there was an accident and someone decided to cover it up. After reading the reviews, it also isn't out of the question that there was a sexual assault, or even perhaps a consensual sexual encounter gone wrong. Especially if she had been drinking as heavily as has been implied.

If there had been an accident in the water where she had drowned, or if someone harmed her on the island and disposed of her in the water, I can't imagine she wouldn't have been found after such an extensive search in crystal clear waters. Not impossible, just much less likely I think. It makes most sense that someone took her off the island via boat or other water vessel and disposed of her far from the island.

 

[mickey2942]

Been casually following this case, forgive me if this has already been discussed and I missed it...what isn't clear to me is the situation of what boats go back and forth to this island. We know the catamaran used for the tour was docked there. Do other boats/water vessels visit the island to bring supplies, remove garbage, etc? And do they do so during the day, or at night? And how often? Are there logs/records kept of what vessels arrive/leave the island?

Because to me, the only thing that makes sense at this point, is that for whatever reason, someone took her off of the island (in a boat or other water vessel). Maybe there was an accident and someone decided to cover it up. After reading the reviews, it also isn't out of the question that there was a sexual assault, or even perhaps a consensual sexual encounter gone wrong. Especially if she had been drinking as heavily as has been implied.

If there had been an accident in the water where she had drowned, or if someone harmed her on the island and disposed of her in the water, I can't imagine she wouldn't have been found after such an extensive search in crystal clear waters. Not impossible, just much less likely I think. It makes most sense that someone took her off the island via boat or other water vessel and disposed of her far from the island.

I agree with this, or some sort of alcohol poisoning, or other accident. The crew freaks, and takes a small jetty with her body off to another shoal to be stashed.

It may be very simple, and someone just thought, "Let's get rid of the body.". No evidence. Nothing to see here.

 

[j_in_c]

I’ve read a few books about chartering yachts or boat owners traveling in the Caribbean. I asked my brother who has owned boats and been in the coast guard if he would be interested in doing such a trip. He told me he would never do one because of the Pirates. Thinking he was teasing, I did some research and realized that there are quite a few dangers from pirates.

Is it possible that a boat nearby sent in a dingy and took her? I can’t imagine that if she fell into the sea that an aerial search would not have found her body.

There are pirates in international waters and my understanding is that they would target yachts for robbery/ransom (several harrowing stories about this - read up on Paul and Rachel Chandler from the UK). I can't see what the motive would be here for pirates to take a middle aged american from an island? If there was going to be a ransom demand, it would have been made some time ago and it seems that would be a very noisy operation to carry out on this teeny tiny tourist island - I feel confident in ruling out pirates.

Also, if there was some drug running (which doesn't make a lot of sense to me based on the geography of this caye) - it seems like it would have crept into the tourist reviews somewhere along the line.

The only semi-plausible thought is she somehow fell in on the retaining wall side and due to currents? inebriation? shock? was unable to get back to the wall or perhaps it is too high (I can't discern this from the photos) to easily scale from the water.

All MOO.

It is definitely mysterious and now that searching has been called off, it seems like it will remain a mystery

 

[Midwestmom2019]

There are pirates in international waters and my understanding is that they would target yachts for robbery/ransom (several harrowing stories about this - read up on Paul and Rachel Chandler from the UK). I can't see what the motive would be here for pirates to take a middle aged american from an island? If there was going to be a ransom demand, it would have been made some time ago and it seems that would be a very noisy operation to carry out on this teeny tiny tourist island - I feel confident in ruling out pirates.

Also, if there was some drug running (which doesn't make a lot of sense to me based on the geography of this caye) - it seems like it would have crept into the tourist reviews somewhere along the line.

The only semi-plausible thought is she somehow fell in on the retaining wall side and due to currents? inebriation? shock? was unable to get back to the wall or perhaps it is too high (I can't discern this from the photos) to easily scale from the water.

All MOO.

It is definitely mysterious and now that searching has been called off, it seems like it will remain a mystery

Several posters noted odd reports. One photo of the place shows a man clearly not a tourist with what appears to be the butt of a gun visible over his left shoulder. Review about guards with assault rifles
24/7 guard. Police question security there. Then the nightly returns by the guides against rough currents but other reports stating they remain on the island with the tourists. (Maybe the guides leave on the nights they know drug exchanges will be made).
It’s as if it’s not the same place when everything is pulled together.
But certainly, her falling into the water on the side where currents are strongest is most likely. Or thrown there? Those currents would have pulled her body out to the ocean and washed her up miles away.
I guess that’s why WSers are so puzzled. It just doesn’t fit any standard picture. I would suspect that the locals may hear rumors of what really happened to her. But know to stay clear of publicity.

 

[poppypants]

In a coconut shell:
American involved in or stumbled upon drug cartel movement. That’s why FBI asked to join search per police, and they welcomed the assistance. Put together with posts that have been scrubbed, as in boyfriend reviews with 24 hr assault rifle guards, replies missing, spinning stories, guides leave at night against treacherous currents, then reports that they stay, it’s a fluid story depending on need.
Belize retirement ads? Nope. I’ll hang out here. Same drugs, same problems but at least they are in English. I know where NOT to go on a moonlit night. Outside in unfamiliar surroundings. Sad state. Like I said, not victim bashing, but ‘ja know? Be careful.

I do not understand: “put together with posts that have been scrubbed, as in bf reviews WITH 24 assault rifle guards, replies missing,”... that sentence, what made you link these events and I especially do not understand the connections after ‘with.’

 

[Midwestmom2019]

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Rendezvous+Caye,+Caribbean+Sea,+Belize/@17.2492951,-88.0538527,3a,75y,180h,100t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1s-BiFxhk__Dl8/VXepQHTkdwI/AAAAAAAAALo/01QnXbBTPqMYijm5pGen4-f5k7HlFtScgCLIBGAYYCw!2e4!4m2!3m1!1s0x8f5d0259a82dbc1f:0xe071e5e4480e67a3?hl=en-US

Looking at this 360 view
If you are missing from the Island.... much like being dropped in outer space IMO.

Is this 360 view taken from the “dangerous” side of the island where the currents are so strong? Too bad the real world is a mess.

 

[LarryLujack]

A Closer Look at Belize’s Place in the Cocaine Trafficking Landscape | Channel5Belize.com

"Belize’s geographic location within the Central American transshipment corridor makes it an ideal waypoint for hundreds of tons of narcotics to be smuggled across continents, from South to North America. An insatiable appetite for cocaine has seen various means of trafficking being employed, with shipments being freighted by sea, air and land. There haven’t been much overland discoveries, however, a majority of the drugs seized in Belize are either flown in or conveyed by water, en route to Mexico and the United States. More recently, there has been an increase in the number of “wet drops”, a routine in which bales of cocaine are deposited from an aircraft into the Caribbean Sea, to be picked up by boats. The spike in murders at sea is attributed to this illegal activity."

 

[moonriverfarm]

Reminds me of the book And The Sea Will Tell

 

[Midwestmom2019]

Thank you for taking the time to type that all out. As someone that literally followed from the beginning and read every story, and more that can’t be shared, you sum it up well. So many different things could have happened. And yes, so many different stories.

Anyone know just what the FBI does at this point? I don’t know if they only “assist” and case closed now, or have an independent investigation?

Does anyone know where the FBI is based when it volunteers to assist local LE? In FL? I would assume there but maybe they have a small office attached to the American Embassy or American consular services? I think that would help us understand how FBI fits into Caribbean crime. When the DR had all those tourist deaths earlier last year, they were available to assist. But WSers were never informed where they office or other details. Maybe that’s part of FBI covert operations? Or even if it’s covert.

 

[Midwestmom2019]

I do not understand: “put together with posts that have been scrubbed, as in bf reviews WITH 24 assault rifle guards, replies missing,”... that sentence, what made you link these events and I especially do not understand the connections after ‘with.’

ETA: (Rules outlined in our agreement with)
WS is very careful about not sleuthing others that haven’t been named as a POI or arrested. But there were several were posts that I read before they were deleted. If the original post is deleted by a mod, any posts that mention that deleted post are also removed to preserve the integrity of the site.
So when I started down the rabbit holes, more information surfaced about the place. But the information is conflicting. Guides go home at night, in the dark, against dangerous currents. Then other information states guides stay with the tourists. I read reviews about the tour company. Most were great. Several were ominous. One that I especially remember is from a woman who’s boyfriend was almost accidentally left behind. When located he was drowning. It reminded me of the Australian case where a couple was left behind and never found. Big lawsuit.
Bits and pieces from internet research when I linked sites off this WS thread really were scattered all over the place. There was one review that apparently was posted by Mackenzie’s companion indicated there were armed guards on the caye. A photo I saw on Google Earth confirmed at least to me that there was a man, standing on the beach with the butt of a gun visible over his left shoulder. A review might be false. I guess a photo could be as well, but coming off Google, I had to consider it seriously. We’re here bc we follow crime. So my thoughts run to the worst case scenario. And with recent posts about Belize being a doorway for drug trafficking, it weighs towards her death being a crime.
Of course, she could have fallen off the strong current end of the caye. But she was not a water person according to family. Grieving. Terribly. Foreign country. Markers that we’ve seen in other crimes we discuss.
Besides, the first time I saw the island from a picture posted here, I got the creepiest feeling. Just all MHOO.
And I really appreciate comments like yours, that can help me explain what I see in the puzzle. Others add different information. Joint effort, if you will. That’s all.

 

[UnderstandBlue]

Does anyone know where the FBI is based when it volunteers to assist local LE? In FL? I would assume there but maybe they have a small office attached to the American Embassy or American consular services? I think that would help us understand how FBI fits into Caribbean crime. When the DR had all those tourist deaths earlier last year, they were available to assist. But WSers were never informed where they office or other details. Maybe that’s part of FBI covert operations? Or even if it’s covert.

Looks like San Salvador & El Salvador: Overseas Offices | Federal Bureau of Investigation

 

[cobalt sky]

While I have no doubt that drug trafficking occurs in the waters surrounding this island, I strongly doubt that drug trafficking had anything to do with Alison's disappearance. I can't imagine drug runners pulling up to a small touristy island in clear view of everyone and doing any kind of drug business, so how would they have had any contact with Alison? Also, the last thing drug traffickers would want would be an American woman missing from the very waters that they are doing their business in, with the scrutiny of the area involved in the search for her and subsequent eyeballs on that area in the future.

 

[LarryLujack]

While I have no doubt that drug trafficking occurs in the waters surrounding this island, I strongly doubt that drug trafficking had anything to do with Alison's disappearance. I can't imagine drug runners pulling up to a small touristy island in clear view of everyone and doing any kind of drug business, so how would they have had any contact with Alison? Also, the last thing drug traffickers would want would be an American woman missing from the very waters that they are doing their business in, with the scrutiny of the area involved in the search for her and subsequent eyeballs on that area in the future.

What if some of the ragamuffin employees were making some cash on the side by moving drugs from the island to elsewhere. What if runners pulled up in the middle of the night around 230am to offload some drugs and Alison came out of her tent and saw something? What was the captain of the boat doing up at 230am? He said she was acting strange, said it was dangerous and took her back to her tent. Was he the last person to see her? I don't think it's a far fetched idea at all. In fact, it makes more sense then anything else.

 

[diggndeeperstill]

While I have no doubt that drug trafficking occurs in the waters surrounding this island, I strongly doubt that drug trafficking had anything to do with Alison's disappearance. I can't imagine drug runners pulling up to a small touristy island in clear view of everyone and doing any kind of drug business, so how would they have had any contact with Alison? Also, the last thing drug traffickers would want would be an American woman missing from the very waters that they are doing their business in, with the scrutiny of the area involved in the search for her and subsequent eyeballs on that area in the future.

The only thing I want to add to this is that they had been in Belize for some time. I don’t know if drug runners care who gets in their way, tbh.
What I don’t get is why, if she was drunk, that was not suggested by the boyfriend? Other things were suggested but not her being incapacitated by drugs or alcohol. Her boyfriend also never made one statement about her acting erratic. That was only made by the authorities.

I do know corruption is rampant on Belize. And I do know it’s a very poor country and there is a vast amount of difference between tourists and locals. I also think that if she was incapacitated with drugs, or if that is even being assumed, that one should find out where they came from.

personally, I think there’s a lot of information missing. And sadly, it’s a reminder to me how dangerous it can be to travel in an under developed country from a crime investigative point of view.

I’d like to see a journalist interview her family for an update. I’d like to know what they’ve been told by local authorities and the boyfriend and what the FBI is doing if anything.

 

[cobalt sky]

What if some of the ragamuffin employees were making some cash on the side by moving drugs from the island to elsewhere. What if runners pulled up in the middle of the night around 230am to offload some drugs and Alison came out of her tent and saw something? What was the captain of the boat doing up at 230am? He said she was acting strange, said it was dangerous and took her back to her tent. Was he the last person to see her? I don't think it's a far fetched idea at all. In fact, it makes more sense then anything else.

Well it's not an impossible idea, but just not very likely imo. If they were involved in moving drugs it's unlikely that they wouldn't have them well disguised as boxes of supplies or something to that effect. In other words, something easily explained if any tourist happened upon what they were doing.

What was the captain doing up at 2:30am? Good question. And if that is truly the last time someone saw Alison alive, it only allows for 3 1/2 hours before her boyfriend awoke and discovered that she was missing. So that is a very short timeframe for something to happen to Alison, if the story about the captain seeing her at 2:30am is true. Or did he make that story up to make it seem that she was still alive and on the island at 2:30am to cover for something that happened earlier?

 

[cobalt sky]

The only thing I want to add to this is that they had been in Belize for some time. I don’t know if drug runners care who gets in their way, tbh.
What I don’t get is why, if she was drunk, that was not suggested by the boyfriend? Other things were suggested but not her being incapacitated by drugs or alcohol. Her boyfriend also never made one statement about her acting erratic. That was only made by the authorities.

I too have a lot of questions about the boyfriend. Was he drinking? Had he or she used any drugs? What time did he enter his tent to go to sleep for the night? When was the last time HE saw Alison, and where?

And I agree with you that there seems to be a lot of information missing. I'm sure Belize would love nothing more than for this incident to be quickly forgotten.

 

[LarryLujack]

I too have a lot of questions about the boyfriend. Was he drinking? Had he or she used any drugs? What time did he enter his tent to go to sleep for the night? When was the last time HE saw Alison, and where?

And I agree with you that there seems to be a lot of information missing. I'm sure Belize would love nothing more than for this incident to be quickly forgotten.

The boyfriend has been cleared as a suspect...

 

[cobalt sky]

The boyfriend has been cleared as a suspect...

I know, but I still would like to know the answers to these questions to get a better idea of their state of mind and of Alison's activities and movements that night.

 

[j_in_c]

I found some more 360 google photos showing the water on the retaining wall side and it does not look that deep or dangerous. Maybe in darkness or with a little bit more wave action something could go wrong if not a strong swimmer? Foul play in such close quarters just seems so incredibly risky and unlikely with no clear motives at all. Only can hope that there is a decent amount of boat traffic in this and surrounding areas such that she might still be found.

Retaining wall side of rendezvous caye:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Rendezvous+Cay/@17.2333333,-88.05,3a,75y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipMCOwoxKmIvS839OYGnl_Br41rTfrnWjxRog68F!2e10!3e12!6shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipMCOwoxKmIvS839OYGnl_Br41rTfrnWjxRog68F=w360-h202-k-no!7i4032!8i2268!4m5!3m4!1s0x8f5d03001e95bf9d:0x50eede0a358f97a1!8m2!3d17.2333333!4d-88.05

Google Maps

 

[dalsglen]

I found some more 360 google photos showing the water on the retaining wall side and it does not look that deep or dangerous. Maybe in darkness or with a little bit more wave action something could go wrong if not a strong swimmer? Foul play in such close quarters just seems so incredibly risky and unlikely with no clear motives at all. Only can hope that there is a decent amount of boat traffic in this and surrounding areas such that she might still be found.

Retaining wall side of rendezvous caye:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Rendezvous+Cay/@17.2333333,-88.05,3a,75y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipMCOwoxKmIvS839OYGnl_Br41rTfrnWjxRog68F!2e10!3e12!6shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipMCOwoxKmIvS839OYGnl_Br41rTfrnWjxRog68F=w360-h202-k-no!7i4032!8i2268!4m5!3m4!1s0x8f5d03001e95bf9d:0x50eede0a358f97a1!8m2!3d17.2333333!4d-88.05

Google Maps

It's said to be dangerous due to the currents.