As I have gone through this and learned a little, if the whole thing does not come crashing down with the wrecked spillway, the snowmelt, IMO, is truly a real dangeroues sitution.
When the temp gets above 32 it starts to melt. Makes sense to me ha!
Have learned however, stuff that seems logical, is like real.
Direct sunlight, angle of sun, wind speeds, how compact the melt it is, how cold he has been in previous weeks,dirt in the snow , angles, all determine how each section does.
And this ain't good at all.That entire region is in for a warming up starting now. 10 days of it.
Its like a spider web with pockets! So much of the stuff is already loaded with water throughout the whole thing (tributaries etc) .
Water goes down- ha! I did not know (linked earlier) that what they did 10 days ago was let 9 reservoirs above Orville fill to the brim to reduce inflow into the Lake Orville.
There are limits to that luxury. In past snowmelt "seasons" that was not the case. Just seems to me if bathtubs are much fuller at the onset there are going to be more problems .
Throughout this mess, it has been clearly stated that this is the most snow on the mountains in the history of mankind.
Common sense would indicate that the abovementioned would be problems enough if three monsoons had not passed through in the last couple of months.
Now , in conjunction with :
-the wild fires taken out things that (roots etc) absorb water
-all the "junk" in the whole system has been cleared out by raging rivers over the last two months ( I would think it logical that water would flow downhill faster with no obstacles).
- This dam is the first one in the chain as it relates to the upper rivers . I tried to copy and paste it but it won't do it) . The area we are talking about above this dam is like the size of Texas. The first big reservoir in that chain is this one.
That region (more northern) is logically colder - so the snow on those mountains are deeper than the mountains more to the south.
Throw in a wrecked dam at the top and it does sound pretty. If you will notice any time the power plant that was shut down there, has been mentioned, in terms of restarting, has never had anything to do with getting it back on line for electric production.
Every mention of trying to get it up and running has been focused on them wanting the 14,000 an hour outflow option it gives them . Not once have they mentioned electricity. I think that is quietly significant, moo.
I think (Moo) that was the sole reason for the unreal abilty of them to get an army of machinery up there in 24 hours to shore up the emergency one. That was quite a feat - especially for govt. I think it shows the gravity of the impending onset of snowmelt. jmo
Local media has not helped imo. Everyone on air smiling cause it is clearing up and warmer is actually horrible for this mess. Non-stop sunlight, and higher temps than normal at this time of year .
I am still having difficulty translating, in my mind, the snow on the mountains models - in terms of trying to "watch" what is happening.
The elevation stuff makes logical sense (higher up = colder) but as a native floridian I have nothing to comprehend what the stuff means in terms of real time like oh this is melting so much faster than last year - if that makes sense.
Kinda like a cat 1 hurricane vs a cat 4 there is a frame of reference visually .
I have been fascinated at how sophisticated this system is. That being said, these ladies and gentlemen that are genius with this stuff know the
implaications.
Even after (all the other spillways that they opened over time) those bodies of water descended they have kept them humming. Despite all the flooding that has already occurred.
IMO very ominous