CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #2

[GatorFL]

Most filters, if not all, NOT will not protect against those types of bacteria.

It's not the bacteria that is the problem. Filters will get them all day long. The byproduct of the bacteria is the cyanotoxin and it can't be filtered out. There is a chemical process to clean the water but nothing a hiker would carry.

 

[annpats]

Those temps convert to 32 and 40.5 Celsius.

That is a big difference. It's almost a 22% increase in temperature from 32°C to 40°C.

I'll go out and walk about slowly in 32°C, and do light work in the garden, short walks etc. but at 40°C, I'd have to stay indoors.

I've only ever been in 40°C a few times in my life and never in the UK or Europe.

It is an ungodly searing temperature. Absolutely like an oven in every respect.

 

[whirrledpeas]

Thanks for clarifying rhat

It's not the bacteria that is the problem. Filters will get them all day long. The byproduct of the bacteria is the cyanotoxin and it can't be filtered out. There is a chemical process to clean the water but nothing a hiker would carry.

Thanks for clarifying, I didn’t realize that it is the byproduct that affects people. Good to know!

 

[Countem]

RSBM

If it were at different times, don't you think they'd be more scattered around the trail?

Not necessarily.

If the baby and/or dog became distressed first, the adults would likely have chosen to carry them out with them rather than abandon them on the trail (even if the baby and/or dog were beyond saving).

If the adults became distressed first, the baby would not be going anywhere on its own, especially strapped into a pack, and the dog would likely remain with its family. Both would not last long on their own in 100 degree F heat.

Even if only one adult was distressed at first, they may have opted to stick together to try to rest and then continue on as a group, but ended up only hurting themselves more as the temperatures continued to rise and heat exhaustion set in. I can understand not wanting to leave your most loved ones behind and continue on your own, even if it is not the logical choice.

MOO.

 

[Figuring]

I'm stuck now on how it was reported that he researched Hites Cove Trail the day before--not Savage Lundy. I decided to see what was said about each. The Yosemite site (Hite Cove and Merced River | Discover Yosemite National Park) says:

“Hite Cove Trail
Hite Cove Trail hiking offers spectacular early morning spring wildflower displays. The first 3/4 mile of the trail is private land, This moderate hike is 7.2 miles and ends at the remains of the old Hite Mine.

Savage/Lundy Trail
Savage/Lundy Trail is a 3-mile long trail and is the most difficult trail in the area. The other trailhead is at the end of Jerseydale Road.”

I underlined a few things here, primarily the contrast between a moderate hike & the most difficult trail in the area. I also underlined the Mine, as it appears from his history he was interested in checking out mines & caves.

I wonder if anyone who understands the area better than me can comment on how possible it would be to end up on the wrong trail? Or maybe, out of curiosity they decided to investigate the SL without a lot of foreknowledge & just went too far? I'm thinking this could be a possible explanation for why they didn't seem to bring enough water etc? I could be totally wrong about this, just thinking out loud...

 

[RickshawFan]

Well, this would definitely explain it. 8.5 miles. WOW. And if they only had the bladder of water, very possible they use filters and use the local water. Do the filters guard against the cyano bacteria of the algae blooms? Anyone know?

I believe when the signs are posted they tell people not to go anywhere near the water. IME there might even be warnings posted at the trailhead. Even if you used a filter, you could presumably absorb the toxin through the skin on your hands while pumping.

There are filters developed joint with the military (MSR makes a purifier like this: $$$$). It's possible if you were desperate, you could help the situation by first setting up water with iodine and maybe UV? and then running it through the MSR purifier. But really, I have no clue.

I have a basic MSR filter, and I've filtered water from a muddy puddle (it was actually delicious), but I'd draw the line if I saw the word toxin. I'd worry about nerve damage to my brilliant noggin.

Here's the EPA's position on cyanobacteria for municipal drinking water (they show the different kinds of filters): https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2014-08/documents/cyanobacteria_factsheet.pdf

I doubt the family had an MSR purifier with them on this hike. The MSR purifier is heavy. You might as well take extra water from home. If I were hiking and planning on using more than 2-3 liters of water, I would check the water sources on the planned route, and take a lightweight filter (or a filter straw), which certainly wouldn't be sufficient for cyanobacteria, but would work for anything else within the US.

I'd never undertake a hike if there was going to be cyanobacteria en route. Besides, the dog could get loose. Who needs it? There are so many other places to hike.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I also wonder if Burning Man being cancelled this year plus doesn’t look like they went last year as she would have just had the baby was a factor.

Just fyi Burning Man was cancelled last year as well as this year, due to covid.

 

[NSamuelle]

I'm stuck now on how it was reported that he researched Hites Cove Trail the day before--not Savage Lundy. I decided to see what was said about each. The Yosemite site (Hite Cove and Merced River | Discover Yosemite National Park) says:

Hite Cove Trail
Hite Cove Trail hiking offers spectacular early morning spring wildflower displays. The first 3/4 mile of the trail is private land, This moderate hike is 7.2 miles and ends at the remains of the old Hite Mine.

Savage/Lundy Trail
Savage/Lundy Trail is a 3-mile long trail and is the most difficult trail in the area. The other trailhead is at the end of Jerseydale Road.

I underlined a few things here, primarily the contrast between a moderate hike & the most difficult trail in the area. I also underlined the Mine, as it appears from his history he was interested in checking out mines & caves.

I wonder if anyone who understands the area better than me can comment on how possible it would be to end up on the wrong trail? Or maybe, out of curiosity they decided to investigate the SL without a lot of foreknowledge & just went too far? I'm thinking this could be a possible explanation for why they didn't seem to bring enough water etc? I could be totally wrong about this, just thinking out loud...

LE said the whole loop they were on was 8.5 miles, which includes Savage Lundy … if Hike Cove Trail is 7.2 miles and Savage Lundy is only 3, does that mean that the “planned” route if they wanted to do Hike Cove Trail (HCT) would have been (7.2 - 3) + 8.5 = 12.7 miles? Or does HCT overlap with SL, thereby reducing the total mileage? 8.5 miles is a huge distance, so what I’m driving at is whether HCT would have added distance to an already considerable hike.

I’m curious about what the halfway point was - when they more easily could have doubled back than continued. Again, I know I’m a broken record, but I cannot fathom looking at the weather forecast and continuing on with a baby and dog after even a mile or 2.

 

[RickshawFan]

Draw that, use the purifier tablets. They already had the baby to carry plus were prepped for a “day hike” so they wouldn’t want to carry what could easily be over 8L of water.

Snipped for focus
Purifier tablets can take 4 hours or so to work IIRC, and they don't remove solids. On a hike this length that would make them irrelevant. Also, it's not certain that purifier tablets would even work. I'm not sure I would even trust UV, like a Steripen. Maybe iodine AND send it through an MSR purifier, but I dunno.
There are so many things wrong with this trip....

 

[RickshawFan]

I can imagine they would think sourcing water from the land, etc. was within the same ethos

Snipped for focus.
Cyanobacteria would not be the normal kind of "sourcing water from the land". The latter is EZ PZ: just use a standard backpacking filter. I've even filtered from a muddy puddle (it was fab). But neurotoxins? I'm getting the heck outta there. Cow poop, too. Sorry, just no.

 

[d4i5y]

I just delved into JG’s AllTrails profile a bit further and saw that he reviewed a different trail in April and commented: “cool old mine, some views, big climbs in places.” Viewable at this link:

https://www.alltrails.com/members/jonathan-gerrish/reviews

But even if they did encounter an old mine the day they perished, and explored near it, wouldn’t the effects be instantaneous?

Regardless, his account really gives the impression of a fit, observant person who knows what he’s doing and doesn’t mind a hike with 3000ft or more of gain…

ETA: He visited another trail that he calls “Comet Mine and Skelton Creek,” also in April 2021. Neither of those names turns up anything on AllTrails. Is it possible he had an interest in old mines? MOO.

This is interesting. I see from his profile he had the Hite Cove trail marked as completed (10km+) which suggests he had certainly hiked it before which makes me think they both had.

Comments on the trail itself are very interesting. Many saying it was very hot in April. Many also saying to start early as there is little shade and it gets very hot. One very interesting comment saying to “bring lots of water or a filter”. So clearly hikers using it are using filters to take river water.

 

[rahod1]

I find it hard to believe they would even try to filter the river water given the warning sign at the trail head:

"Last month, Sierra National Forest officials posted a warning about 'high concentrations' of algae which can produce 'extremely dangerous toxins that can sicken or kill people and animals' in the water in the Merced River at Hites Cove"

Did toxic algae bloom kill British software developer, his wife and one-year-old toddler? | Daily Mail Online

 

[annpats]

I’ve looked through her Instagram and she seemed quite an intrepid person; travels included hikes through jungle in Asia, scaling ice walls in Iceland, etc. Something about them wanting to do big endurance hikes or something.

Do you think they were starting to do 'trail bagging' in the same way some mountaineers do 'peak bagging'...??

Maybe they wanted to start doing long trails locally to over-compensate for not being able to do 'big stuff' overseas due to Covid and the new baby....??

Instead of being rational and only doing a portion of the trail, they did the whole loop?

Just a thought.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm stuck now on how it was reported that he researched Hites Cove Trail the day before--not Savage Lundy. I decided to see what was said about each. The Yosemite site (Hite Cove and Merced River | Discover Yosemite National Park) says:

“Hite Cove Trail
Hite Cove Trail hiking offers spectacular early morning spring wildflower displays. The first 3/4 mile of the trail is private land, This moderate hike is 7.2 miles and ends at the remains of the old Hite Mine.

Savage/Lundy Trail
Savage/Lundy Trail is a 3-mile long trail and is the most difficult trail in the area. The other trailhead is at the end of Jerseydale Road.”

I underlined a few things here, primarily the contrast between a moderate hike & the most difficult trail in the area. I also underlined the Mine, as it appears from his history he was interested in checking out mines & caves.

I wonder if anyone who understands the area better than me can comment on how possible it would be to end up on the wrong trail? Or maybe, out of curiosity they decided to investigate the SL without a lot of foreknowledge & just went too far? I'm thinking this could be a possible explanation for why they didn't seem to bring enough water etc? I could be totally wrong about this, just thinking out loud...

Looking at the map, the moderate trail doesn't seem to have switchbacks. If the family went down the switchback trail as an out-and-back, and they had intended to go on the Hite trail, they should have known the moment they hit switchbacks (i.e. not too far from the car) that they had the wrong trail. Switchbacks going into a canyon would like signify they wouldn't be in the realm of "moderate" on the way out; it would presumably be in the realm of "strenuous".

 

[JustReading01]

Ellen's AllTrail account: https://www.alltrails.com/members/ellen-chung-2?ref=header

 

[d4i5y]

Snipped for focus
Purifier tablets can take 4 hours or so to work IIRC, and they don't remove solids. On a hike this length that would make them irrelevant. Also, it's not certain that purifier tablets would even work. I'm not sure I would even trust UV, like a Steripen. Maybe iodine AND send it through an MSR purifier, but I dunno.
There are so many things wrong with this trip....

Sorry, I’ve edited my post. I shouldn’t have said “purifier tablets” as I don’t know how any of this works. I was just musing on others pointing out they may have taken a filter as presumably many hikers do if they know they will have access to water on the route. Also, I hear you about the sign but they may have not seen this or they may have felt experienced enough to “know” what water to look for (as in water they would think “safe” to draw from). Also, they may have simply felt they had no choice as they wouldn’t have known about the warning and it was too late to turn back or whatever. Many variables but my main point was just to say they could indeed have taken river water and for any number of reasons thought it was safe to or that it wouldn’t cause them any problems.

 

[Figuring]

Looking at the map, the moderate trail doesn't seem to have switchbacks. If the family went down the switchback trail as an out-and-back, and they had intended to go on the Hite trail, they should have known the moment they hit switchbacks (i.e. not too far from the car) that they had the wrong trail. Switchbacks going into a canyon would like signify they wouldn't be in the realm of "moderate" on the way out; it would presumably be in the realm of "strenuous".

Thank you for clarifying! I cannot read these maps for the life of me!

 

[fred&edna]

After reading about the "fast death factor" of ATX in the Journal of the American Chemical Society... I'm even more convinced this toxin is the likely cause. A link to the JACS info can be found in the following link (and this April 2021 article discusses the airborne factor which I do NOT think applies in this case at all... I just found it to be of additional concern to everyone's well-being).

Meet 'Very Fast Death Factor' - The Algal Toxin Scientists Are Finding in Our Air

 

[RickshawFan]

Sorry, I’ve edited my post. I shouldn’t have said “purifier tablets” as I don’t know how any of this works. I was just musing on others pointing out they may have taken a filter as presumably many hikers do if they know they will have access to water on the route. Also, I hear you about the sign but they may have not seen this or they may have felt experienced enough to “know” what water to look for (as in water they would think “safe” to draw from). Also, they may have simply felt they had no choice as they wouldn’t have known about the warning and it was too late to turn back or whatever. Many variables but my main point was just to say they could indeed have taken river water and for any number of reasons thought it was safe to or that it wouldn’t cause them any problems.

IIRC the standard cyanobacteria signs say not even to go near the water. It's possible cyanobacteria is not something you'd even notice without a sign, being bacteria size 'n' all. But the Merced River was already published for a while as "keep away".

 

[wary]

Regarding heat stroke I think so, especially depending on how long they were out there. But again, 2 adults, a baby and a dog dropping dead within 30 yards of each other doesn't seem like heat stroke. The Lake Nyos disaster comes to mind. But that killed a lot of people and livestock. This seems much more focused.

Remember, if the dog is on a leash, it’ll die if the humans die. And likewise, the baby will die if the adults die. So, there’s only the two adults to account for.