CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[DCA58]

Okay, as a newbie I’m going to make a bold move and go out on a limb here. Feel free to throw tomatoes my way

It was not the heat, folks. Heatstroke didn’t kill them, full stop. Which means there was no long, horrible suffering, no babies or dogs in agony, no dramatic trailside decisions. You can continue to imagine all kinds of awful things about this poor family’s last hours if you wish, but there’s absolutely no reason or evidence to support those imaginings.

Let’s quickly set aside LE’s apparent lack of focus on heatstroke. Some of you have rightly pointed out how much of a nonissue it seems to be to them, and how irresponsible it is that they are not being more vocal. That should tell you something. LE is in the business of protecting people. When two people died recently a few days apart in Death Valley, LE was calling “suspected heatstroke” shortly after the bodies were recovered and long before autopsy. They’re not doing that here. For good reasons.

Here’s why. You cannot conclude that because it was, say, 105 degrees, the heat killed these people, or even made them uncomfortable. That’s a basic misunderstanding of how our bodies physically change and acclimate to our temperature surroundings. Hot weather is relative, and what feels insufferable to you may feel mild to someone else. Ever wonder how a tourist from Chicago can succumb to heatstroke in less than an hour hiking in Death Valley in 115 degree heat, while the rangers who live there can perform SAR for hours on end in long pants? It’s because the rangers’ bodies are acclimated.

Here’s a good description of the heat acclimating process: Heat Index - Acclimatizing Workers | Occupational Safety and Health Administration

From the above OSHA article:
“ Workers become gradually acclimatized when exposed to hot conditions for several weeks. Physical changes in blood vessels and in sweating occur to dissipate heat more effectively.”

and

“Humans are, to a large extent, capable of adjusting to the heat. Much of this adjustment to heat, under normal circumstances, usually takes about 5 to 7 days, during which time the body will undergo a series of changes that will make continued exposure to heat more endurable.”

This family lived there, and by all accounts spent a lot of time outdoors hiking in the weather. All of them, even the baby, were acclimated. Acclimating doesn’t mean you get used to feeling hot and uncomfortable- it means your body has made physical changes so that you DON’T feel hot and uncomfortable, you can stay cool more efficiently, and you are at not at high risk for heat injury or heatstroke.

Now, if they were like some residents of the California Foothills who spend most of the summer months inside in air-conditioning, that might alter my opinion. But that doesn’t sound like them.

Someone here a few threads back used the temperature readings at El Portal, CA as a good comparison of the conditions in the trail area, and that’s fair. So, here are the daily highs recorded at that station for the entire month before August 15:

7/15 - 99.1
7/16 - 99.3
7/17 - 103.5
7/18 - 103.6
7/19 - 99
7/20 - 102.6
7/21 - 103.3
7/22 - 104.5
7/23 - 102.9
7/24 - 104.9
7/25 - 104.5
7/26 - 99.7
7/27 - 102.7
7/28 - 104.2
7/29 - 105.1
7/30 - 105.1
7/31 - 100.4
8/1 - 103.1
8/2 - 104.0
8/3 - 108.1
8/4 - 107.4
8/5 - 100.0
8/6 - 100.0
8/7 - 100.6
8/8 - 100.8
8/9 - 101.7
8/10 - 102.9
8/11 - 106.0
8/12 - 106.0
8/13 - 105.1
8/14 - 106.3
8/15 - 107.1

Source: Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

The corresponding temperatures at the Jerseydale Station were a few degrees lower, but still high 90s to low 100s.

So, Jon, Ellen, and Miju were like the Death Valley rangers, while most of us would be like the Chicago tourist. Physically, the three of them were different than us. They would feel cooler and be able to keep a normal core temperature for much longer than we would.

Now… throw in the facts that 1) at least 1/3 of their hiking route had them walking consistently alongside a river that had access points along the way, 2) that section of the river was upstream from the algal mats found at Hites Cove, 3) they had at least some water that we know of, and perhaps things like food and empty water bladders we haven’t heard about, and 4) they were all found together on trail.

Can ANYONE find a case of multiple outdoor heatstroke deaths (couples, hikers, etc) where the bodies were found within 200 yards of each other? I can’t.

Okay, commence the tomato throwing, lol.

I completely, and totally agree with every word!

 

[SpideySense]

Evidence is what was found at the scene, and officially LE has not told us very much. We’re speculating based on what true factors we know of the day: a witness sighting, temperatures throughout the day and night until they were found..

With respect, that is not an accurate definition of evidence. Evidence is any fact or circumstance that supports or disproves a particular belief or conclusion. Yes, evidence is often found at the scene, but it is certainly not limited to what's found at the scene.

Let's dispassionately weigh the evidence of 1) heatstroke and 2) lightning:

Heatstroke evidence:
1. Ambient temperatures ranging from 103 to 109
2. Victims found outdoors in an exposed location with no shelter nearby
3. Victims were engaged in strenuous activity

Lightning evidence:
1. Recorded lightning strikes within striking distance of the family that day
2. Thunderstorm Warning issued for the Sierra Foothills that day (see Suglo 's post on 8/21)
3. Victims found on exposed hillside with no shelter nearby
3. Family found in positions consistent with what one would expect to find if they were attempting lightning safety
4. Initial LE reports were looking for something that killed them quickly, meaning that's how the scene presented itself to them
5. Well-established precedent for death scene, meaning there are countless documented incidents of people and/or animals in close proximity to each other being killed simultaneously by a single bolt of lightning

So far, lightning has a bit more evidence in its favor. You can't really expect to find on-scene evidence like a charred tree zapped by lightning when ALL the trees in the area are already charred from fire. And it's already been established that lightning can kill and leave no marks on the body. So I'm not sure what further on-scene evidence supporting it there could be.

But now let's weigh the evidence AGAINST both, or that would support a conclusion that one option or the other did NOT occur:

Anti-Heatstroke evidence:
1. They were locals acclimated to the weather, not tourists from a cooler region and not a heat wave situation
2. LE stated they were "well-prepared"
3. They had water
4. They were a few steps from a cooling river during 1/3 of their hike, and roughly a mile uphill from that river where found
5. They routinely hiked outdoors in the area, meaning they regularly engaged in outdoor exercise prior to their deaths; not suddenly going from sedentary to rigorous outdoor activity
6. Unless someone can dig something up, there is no precedent we have found for a heatstroke death scene like this. Meaning to our knowledge there has never been a case where multiple heatstroke victims have been found outdoors within 50? 100? 200? yards of each other. It would be a forensic "first."

Anti-Lightning evidence
1. Death by lightning is far less common than death by heatstroke

We can quibble about how significant these facts and circumstances are, but I do think they are facts and/or information provided by LE/friends/family nonetheless.

 

[Tower]

That is so sad about the poor baby and her poor mom. As new parents its hard to know if you're doing the right thing. There were a couple of cases of newborns who died from positional asphyxiation in a mass market sling style baby carriers that was eventually recalled. Again, it was a carrier that departed from more traditional designs to make it so a parent could put their baby in the carrier and then put the carrier on. Just parents trying to do whats best for their babies by carrying them close.

I've never heard kangaroo bag as a specific term before. I dont know if that's a term LE came up with or maybe it's a specific hiking related carrier so I'm just not familiar with it. I'll have to look into it.

I think the description of the baby being in the carrier but not tied to Jon could be consistent with these backpack style carriers where the baby is kind of suspended in a seat within a frame that the parent can set down independently. At least that was my interpretation.

I think it may have been thread #2 when we found a somewhat unreliable-seeming British source that quoted LE calling it a “kangaroo bag” even though all US MSM sources quoted the same LE source as saying it was a baby carrier. There’s no way to verify that British source was embellishing because I haven’t seen a video of LE’s actual words, but that source also misspelled Ellen’s and Oski the dog’s names.

Our British friends could speak to whether that is a common term there, but a kangaroo bag is not a term used commonly in CA or the southwest with any of the personal or professional contacts I have with young babies (hundreds in any given week). It seems, from previously quoted LE sources and Ellen’s IG that they had a backpack child carrier, but that is still speculation, Jmo.

 

[Snoopster]

Okay, as a newbie I’m going to make a bold move and go out on a limb here. Feel free to throw tomatoes my way

It was not the heat, folks. Heatstroke didn’t kill them, full stop. Which means there was no long, horrible suffering, no babies or dogs in agony, no dramatic trailside decisions. You can continue to imagine all kinds of awful things about this poor family’s last hours if you wish, but there’s absolutely no reason or evidence to support those imaginings.

Let’s quickly set aside LE’s apparent lack of focus on heatstroke. Some of you have rightly pointed out how much of a nonissue it seems to be to them, and how irresponsible it is that they are not being more vocal. That should tell you something. LE is in the business of protecting people. When two people died recently a few days apart in Death Valley, LE was calling “suspected heatstroke” shortly after the bodies were recovered and long before autopsy. They’re not doing that here. For good reasons.

Here’s why. You cannot conclude that because it was, say, 105 degrees, the heat killed these people, or even made them uncomfortable. That’s a basic misunderstanding of how our bodies physically change and acclimate to our temperature surroundings. Hot weather is relative, and what feels insufferable to you may feel mild to someone else. Ever wonder how a tourist from Chicago can succumb to heatstroke in less than an hour hiking in Death Valley in 115 degree heat, while the rangers who live there can perform SAR for hours on end in long pants? It’s because the rangers’ bodies are acclimated.

Here’s a good description of the heat acclimating process: Heat Index - Acclimatizing Workers | Occupational Safety and Health Administration

From the above OSHA article:
“ Workers become gradually acclimatized when exposed to hot conditions for several weeks. Physical changes in blood vessels and in sweating occur to dissipate heat more effectively.”

and

“Humans are, to a large extent, capable of adjusting to the heat. Much of this adjustment to heat, under normal circumstances, usually takes about 5 to 7 days, during which time the body will undergo a series of changes that will make continued exposure to heat more endurable.”

This family lived there, and by all accounts spent a lot of time outdoors hiking in the weather. All of them, even the baby, were acclimated. Acclimating doesn’t mean you get used to feeling hot and uncomfortable- it means your body has made physical changes so that you DON’T feel hot and uncomfortable, you can stay cool more efficiently, and you are at not at high risk for heat injury or heatstroke.

Now, if they were like some residents of the California Foothills who spend most of the summer months inside in air-conditioning, that might alter my opinion. But that doesn’t sound like them.

Someone here a few threads back used the temperature readings at El Portal, CA as a good comparison of the conditions in the trail area, and that’s fair. So, here are the daily highs recorded at that station for the entire month before August 15:

7/15 - 99.1
7/16 - 99.3
7/17 - 103.5
7/18 - 103.6
7/19 - 99
7/20 - 102.6
7/21 - 103.3
7/22 - 104.5
7/23 - 102.9
7/24 - 104.9
7/25 - 104.5
7/26 - 99.7
7/27 - 102.7
7/28 - 104.2
7/29 - 105.1
7/30 - 105.1
7/31 - 100.4
8/1 - 103.1
8/2 - 104.0
8/3 - 108.1
8/4 - 107.4
8/5 - 100.0
8/6 - 100.0
8/7 - 100.6
8/8 - 100.8
8/9 - 101.7
8/10 - 102.9
8/11 - 106.0
8/12 - 106.0
8/13 - 105.1
8/14 - 106.3
8/15 - 107.1

Source: Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

The corresponding temperatures at the Jerseydale Station were a few degrees lower, but still high 90s to low 100s.

So, Jon, Ellen, and Miju were like the Death Valley rangers, while most of us would be like the Chicago tourist. Physically, the three of them were different than us. They would feel cooler and be able to keep a normal core temperature for much longer than we would.

Now… throw in the facts that 1) at least 1/3 of their hiking route had them walking consistently alongside a river that had access points along the way, 2) that section of the river was upstream from the algal mats found at Hites Cove, 3) they had at least some water that we know of, and perhaps things like food and empty water bladders we haven’t heard about, and 4) they were all found together on trail.

Can ANYONE find a case of multiple outdoor heatstroke deaths (couples, hikers, etc) where the bodies were found within 200 yards of each other? I can’t.

Okay, commence the tomato throwing, lol.

Welcome! Great comments.

But it's not clear to me what your theory is. I can argue against some of your points, but I'm wondering what you presume the cause of death to be.

 

[rahod1]

Lightning evidence:
1. Recorded lightning strikes within striking distance of the family that day
2. Thunderstorm Warning issued for the Sierra Foothills that day (see Suglo 's post on 8/21)
3. Victims found on exposed hillside with no shelter nearby
3. Family found in positions consistent with what one would expect to find if they were attempting lightning safety
4. Initial LE reports were looking for something that killed them quickly, meaning that's how the scene presented itself to them
5. Well-established precedent for death scene, meaning there are countless documented incidents of people and/or animals in close proximity to each other being killed simultaneously by a single bolt of lightning

None of this is *EVIDENCE* of lightening being the cause of death. We have no evidence as to the cause of death ....YET. So we >>SPECULATE<< MOO

 

[NSamuelle]

Okay, as a newbie I’m going to make a bold move and go out on a limb here. Feel free to throw tomatoes my way

It was not the heat, folks. Heatstroke didn’t kill them, full stop. Which means there was no long, horrible suffering, no babies or dogs in agony, no dramatic trailside decisions. You can continue to imagine all kinds of awful things about this poor family’s last hours if you wish, but there’s absolutely no reason or evidence to support those imaginings.

Let’s quickly set aside LE’s apparent lack of focus on heatstroke. Some of you have rightly pointed out how much of a nonissue it seems to be to them, and how irresponsible it is that they are not being more vocal. That should tell you something. LE is in the business of protecting people. When two people died recently a few days apart in Death Valley, LE was calling “suspected heatstroke” shortly after the bodies were recovered and long before autopsy. They’re not doing that here. For good reasons.

Here’s why. You cannot conclude that because it was, say, 105 degrees, the heat killed these people, or even made them uncomfortable. That’s a basic misunderstanding of how our bodies physically change and acclimate to our temperature surroundings. Hot weather is relative, and what feels insufferable to you may feel mild to someone else. Ever wonder how a tourist from Chicago can succumb to heatstroke in less than an hour hiking in Death Valley in 115 degree heat, while the rangers who live there can perform SAR for hours on end in long pants? It’s because the rangers’ bodies are acclimated.

Here’s a good description of the heat acclimating process: Heat Index - Acclimatizing Workers | Occupational Safety and Health Administration

From the above OSHA article:
“ Workers become gradually acclimatized when exposed to hot conditions for several weeks. Physical changes in blood vessels and in sweating occur to dissipate heat more effectively.”

and

“Humans are, to a large extent, capable of adjusting to the heat. Much of this adjustment to heat, under normal circumstances, usually takes about 5 to 7 days, during which time the body will undergo a series of changes that will make continued exposure to heat more endurable.”

This family lived there, and by all accounts spent a lot of time outdoors hiking in the weather. All of them, even the baby, were acclimated. Acclimating doesn’t mean you get used to feeling hot and uncomfortable- it means your body has made physical changes so that you DON’T feel hot and uncomfortable, you can stay cool more efficiently, and you are at not at high risk for heat injury or heatstroke.

Now, if they were like some residents of the California Foothills who spend most of the summer months inside in air-conditioning, that might alter my opinion. But that doesn’t sound like them.

Someone here a few threads back used the temperature readings at El Portal, CA as a good comparison of the conditions in the trail area, and that’s fair. So, here are the daily highs recorded at that station for the entire month before August 15:

7/15 - 99.1
7/16 - 99.3
7/17 - 103.5
7/18 - 103.6
7/19 - 99
7/20 - 102.6
7/21 - 103.3
7/22 - 104.5
7/23 - 102.9
7/24 - 104.9
7/25 - 104.5
7/26 - 99.7
7/27 - 102.7
7/28 - 104.2
7/29 - 105.1
7/30 - 105.1
7/31 - 100.4
8/1 - 103.1
8/2 - 104.0
8/3 - 108.1
8/4 - 107.4
8/5 - 100.0
8/6 - 100.0
8/7 - 100.6
8/8 - 100.8
8/9 - 101.7
8/10 - 102.9
8/11 - 106.0
8/12 - 106.0
8/13 - 105.1
8/14 - 106.3
8/15 - 107.1

Source: Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

The corresponding temperatures at the Jerseydale Station were a few degrees lower, but still high 90s to low 100s.

So, Jon, Ellen, and Miju were like the Death Valley rangers, while most of us would be like the Chicago tourist. Physically, the three of them were different than us. They would feel cooler and be able to keep a normal core temperature for much longer than we would.

Now… throw in the facts that 1) at least 1/3 of their hiking route had them walking consistently alongside a river that had access points along the way, 2) that section of the river was upstream from the algal mats found at Hites Cove, 3) they had at least some water that we know of, and perhaps things like food and empty water bladders we haven’t heard about, and 4) they were all found together on trail.

Can ANYONE find a case of multiple outdoor heatstroke deaths (couples, hikers, etc) where the bodies were found within 200 yards of each other? I can’t.

Okay, commence the tomato throwing, lol.

Personally, I don’t think it was heat stroke but it would have been—eventually—if they didn’t die some other way (disclaimer: I was a paramedic but didn’t see much heat stroke, so I’m not an expert on HS). I won’t belabor points already made. But - they should not have gone out on that hike in Miju’s vulnerable condition or the dog’s double-coated furriness. It breaks my heart.

 

[RedHaus]

None this is *EVIDENCE* of lightening being the cause of death. MOO

Indeed @rahod1. But first, before I agree with you further, I think you meant to say, "None of this...", right?

I think we need to be careful that we, the public, have no evidence of any cause of death or time of death, etc. All we have is circumstantial data that can lean towards one theory or another (some unmentioned) based on our personal biases.

 

[Smokingun]

There was recorded lighting activity in the area that day (Source: blitzortung.org) Between around 4:38 and 6:25pm, there were 4 recorded strikes roughly 25 miles east of the family’s location. I’ve attached screenshots, but you can go to the website and play around with the time and date inputs.

Welcome to WS! I’m a newly, too! I joined for this very case. It is such a mystery and horrific tragedy. I tried to find lightning strikes for the period of 24 hours Sunday to Monday morning and because the website is set up with UTC, which is 7 hours ahead, I could absolutely not calculate that in my head! Well done!!

ohhemmgee…see, I still can’t get this right!

 

[rahod1]

Indeed @rahod1. But first, before I agree with you further, I think you meant to say, "None of this...", right?

I think we need to be careful that we, the public, have no evidence of any cause of death or time of death, etc. All we have is circumstantial data that can lean towards one theory or another (some unmentioned) based on our personal biases.

Agree . Edited. Thanks.

 

[armchairagatha]

With respect, that is not an accurate definition of evidence. Evidence is any fact or circumstance that supports or disproves a particular belief or conclusion. Yes, evidence is often found at the scene, but it is certainly not limited to what's found at the scene.

Let's dispassionately weigh the evidence of 1) heatstroke and 2) lightning:

Heatstroke evidence:
1. Ambient temperatures ranging from 103 to 109
2. Victims found outdoors in an exposed location with no shelter nearby
3. Victims were engaged in strenuous activity

Lightning evidence:
1. Recorded lightning strikes within striking distance of the family that day
2. Thunderstorm Warning issued for the Sierra Foothills that day (see Suglo 's post on 8/21)
3. Victims found on exposed hillside with no shelter nearby
3. Family found in positions consistent with what one would expect to find if they were attempting lightning safety
4. Initial LE reports were looking for something that killed them quickly, meaning that's how the scene presented itself to them
5. Well-established precedent for death scene, meaning there are countless documented incidents of people and/or animals in close proximity to each other being killed simultaneously by a single bolt of lightning

So far, lightning has a bit more evidence in its favor. You can't really expect to find on-scene evidence like a charred tree zapped by lightning when ALL the trees in the area are already charred from fire. And it's already been established that lightning can kill and leave no marks on the body. So I'm not sure what further on-scene evidence supporting it there could be.

But now let's weigh the evidence AGAINST both, or that would support a conclusion that one option or the other did NOT occur:

Anti-Heatstroke evidence:
1. They were locals acclimated to the weather, not tourists from a cooler region and not a heat wave situation
2. LE stated they were "well-prepared"
3. They had water
4. They were a few steps from a cooling river during 1/3 of their hike, and roughly a mile uphill from that river where found
5. They routinely hiked outdoors in the area, meaning they regularly engaged in outdoor exercise prior to their deaths; not suddenly going from sedentary to rigorous outdoor activity
6. Unless someone can dig something up, there is no precedent we have found for a heatstroke death scene like this. Meaning to our knowledge there has never been a case where multiple heatstroke victims have been found outdoors within 50? 100? 200? yards of each other. It would be a forensic "first."

Anti-Lightning evidence
1. Death by lightning is far less common than death by heatstroke

We can quibble about how significant these facts and circumstances are, but I do think they are facts and/or information provided by LE/friends/family nonetheless.

Not a forensic first. Please see this: Death Valley Germans - Wikipedia

 

[insearchoflight]

This case is extremely rare! We cannot rule out the absolute most unlikely of scenarios because it seems this is just that, a unique and extremely unlikely case.

moo

 

[Speculaytor]

I was completely sold on heatstroke, or poisonous water combined with the heat. However, reading about the lightning, seeing the sources on multiple deaths with one strike, I think it is a very possible explanation, but what about the new news reports about a hazard found just off the trail where they were found?

 

[woods]

…there has never been a case where multiple heatstroke victims have been found outdoors within 50? 100? 200? yards of each other. It would be a forensic "first."

A hiking couple by the names of Gen Miake, 60, & his wife, 58-year-old Kathie Barber, were found dead, just 100 yards from each other, and one to two miles east of the trailhead to Amboy Crater.

The couple was in the open desert with no shade and the temperature was estimated at 113 degrees.
Hikers Found Dead In Mojave Desert ID'ed As Yorba Linda Couple

 

[SpideySense]

Welcome! Great comments.

But it's not clear to me what your theory is. I can argue against some of your points, but I'm wondering what you presume the cause of death to be.

Ground strike/ ground current lightning.

 

[SpideySense]

Not a forensic first. Please see this: Death Valley Germans - Wikipedia

I know that case very well. I’ve been going to DV for 45 years. My favorite place on earth. Their remains were scattered bones when found and no cause of death was established, IIRC.

 

[SpideySense]

We may have different standards for “evidence”. <modsnip> [L]et’s not get hung up on semantics. We can call it “information revealed by LE” or “information documented from source material.” Whatever you’re comfortable with.

 

[woods]

Having water on you doesn’t always prevent heat stroke:
29 year old Carrie Romero became disoriented around 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday. Search crews arrived quickly, but Romero was pronounced dead around 3 p.m. after being found about half-mile from the trailhead.

Pinal County officials said the death is heat-related. Romero had been hiking for more than 3 hours and appeared to have ample water.
Several hikers die on Arizona trails; officials urge caution

 

[SpideySense]

You know, I hope we’re not losing sight of the bigger picture here. It would be a good thing if this family died a relatively quick and painless death, would it not? That’s what I’m rooting for.

I’m getting a weird hostility vibe here, with my quotes getting bolded back to me and cryptic one word replies. I’ve got no dog in this fight, I just see the situation in a different way. If I distinguish situations presented in other cases because I see relevant differences, I’m not dismissing them. And if I’m totally wrong, which I probably am, I’ve got no ego attached to the outcome. I’m just hoping, and it appears at least possible, that this family didn’t suffer and their loved ones can be at peace.

 

[SpideySense]

Having water on you doesn’t always prevent heat stroke:
29 year old Carrie Romero became disoriented around 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday. Search crews arrived quickly, but Romero was pronounced dead around 3 p.m. after being found about half-mile from the trailhead.

Pinal County officials said the death is heat-related. Romero had been hiking for more than 3 hours and appeared to have ample water.
Several hikers die on Arizona trails; officials urge caution

Totally agree.

 

[everybodhi]

Distance is relevant to heatstroke because of victims’ tendency to become irrational and wander. I’m not being arbitrary, I’m going by what’s known about heatstroke. I still maintain that multiple heatstroke victims found deceased in close proximity to each other is unprecedented. I’m perfectly willing to be wrong about that.

I haven't read that heat stroke causes a tendancy to wander, do you have a link to that symptom?
Heatstroke causes confusion, that's a fact, but I've never heard it causes wandering.
Correlation does not imply causation.
People wander off on a hot day, and then, get stuck too far away from help to save themselves once their body temp starts elevating.
Thousands of people have died of heatstroke in cities during heat waves when wandering out of their un-airconditioned apartments to air conditioned businesses would save their life, but the confusion caused by their overheated brains prevents them from logically wandering outside.