CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[Bekind89]

I think that the decision making process when under severe circumstances and stress merits review. We do this at work when there is a critical incident, not to "armchair quarterback" the people who made decisions, but to review the thought process, and what occurred as a result. If a better decision could have been made, to improve process, this is added to "response to critical incident" trainings.

As I review this situation, objectively, if we make the assumption that, "Oksi", the dog, was the first one in distress due to the heat, a logical assumption, as he had very thick fur, (Akita Mix), or if he had become seriously ill due to drinking or playing in the water.

At this point, when Oksi needed help to get back to the car, either Mom or Dad had to carry him. Thus, putting them in stress. And risk for heat stroke.

This is where the review of the decision made...helping Oksi, was this decision part of the cascade that lead to the entire family dying?

No judgment on the decision. But it merits review.

This is what I believe happened. His little paw pads may have been burned as well. ( I can barely type this it is so heart wrenching.)
I know if it had been my pet I would have used every ounce of my strength to save him, as would most of us here. Then the dad, already carrying the baby, may have tried taking turns with her carrying the little guy. It had to have been so traumatic and they were in a panic.
I think the father was overcome next. I do not have the heart to picture what the baby went through.
I think I need to take a mental health break from thinking about this for a bit. It is just too sad.

 

[Parsnip]

I guess I am resolved at this point to believe that the extraordinary circumstances surrounding this family’s death (avid hikers! Found in the middle of the trail! Father sitting up! Mother tens of yards away!) all belie (very sadly) ordinary causes (basic miscalculations, cascade of events originating with the dog?, realities of heat stroke, climate change). There, but for the grace of god…

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

A thought about why they weren't reported until 11pm Monday night: imagine if the nanny did not have family contact information. what if she were young, if she had just started work for the Gerrish-Chungs? Jon's family was in the UK, Ellen's in Orange County. It seems at least one parent had been working at home in Mariposa, so the nanny would always have a parent to hand. Did she know the family was going for a hike on Sunday? (I don't know why she would.) If the house was not disturbed, nothing would look out of the ordinary. A lot of responsibility fell on the poor nanny. She who would have been the only person on the scene to report to others about something being amiss and to gauge the level of severity.

Frankly, I think it's amazing they found the family as quickly as they did, given the Philip Kreycik case.

 

[EndoraXplorer]

@Bekind89 - I can't stop thinking about it either. I think it just hits really close to home. As @Parsnip says, there, but for the grace of god...

My boyfriend, who is an avid hiker, always tells me exactly which trail he's going on and when to expect to hear from him. Earlier this week, he changed a hiking plan from trying a trail he's never done before, to a trail he's done multiple times, because of this story and how anxious I've been about it. I just keep thinking about them and their families. I probably should take a mental health break too.

 

[woods]

True, I assumed the baby pics were from Jonathan’s account because EC was so open on her IG pre-baby and had posted pics of the baby there already (with J, not with her), but I have no idea what she posted privately.

There’s also some formal & casual pictures of just the couple together that I saw from the news, which aren’t found on her IG page.

 

[rahod1]

This is what I believe happened. His little paw pads may have been burned as well. ( I can barely type this it is so heart wrenching.)
I know if it had been my pet I would have used every ounce of my strength to save him, as would most of us here. Then the dad, already carrying the baby, may have tried taking turns with her carrying the little guy. It had to have been so traumatic and they were in a panic.
I think the father was overcome next. I do not have the heart to picture what the baby went through.
I think I need to take a mental health break from thinking about this for a bit. It is just too sad.

Well said! My take>>> The infant and the dog were BY FAR the most vulnerable to the heat even if they had sufficient water at hand. So as you suggest, one or both started to experience the effects of 90F+ resulting in heat stroke. We'll never know how the parents dealt with this in the early stages, but carrying the dog is certainly a strong possibility. If the infant was sick...it could have resulted in them picking up the pace up the hill, contributing to their collapse. MMO.

 

[woods]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>

Kristie Mitchell, Mariposa County sheriff spokesperson, said the family didn’t leave for their hike until mid-morning Sunday

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253616898.html#storylink=cpy

 

[whirrledpeas]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned or noticed this, but the police obtaining warrants for their social media accounts is a pretty interesting clue.

I’m confident this is LE entertaining absolutely every avenue they can but it also suggests they do not have a leading theory that would involve natural causes i.e. exposure, algae bloom, etc - all of which are all still possibilities.

Any thoughts on this?

 

[NSamuelle]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned or noticed this, but the police obtaining warrants for their social media accounts is a pretty interesting clue.

I’m confident this is LE entertaining absolutely every avenue they can but it also suggests they do not have a leading theory that would involve natural causes i.e. exposure, algae bloom, etc - all of which are all still possibilities.

Any thoughts on this?

Agreed; I know heat stroke doesn’t always show up on autopsy so a non-finding isn’t necessarily conclusive, but there are some post-mortem indicia. I suspect those indicia are absent if they’re looking at social media - another clue is the timing of the warrant, 8/25, so they didn’t request it by default at the start of the investigation but waited for initial findings. Other search warrants for sensitive data (phone) and their car and house were issued on 8/20.

 

[RedHaus]

On/off lurker for several WS case follows, so had to finally make an account to comment on this one, but felt I could shed some more light on this topic as an ER vet who has treated many cases of canine heatstroke, albeit some to no avail.... As others have theorized, I think this is a tragic case of overestimation of ability & lack of foresight regarding temperatures. I think it is highly likely the dog was the first to succumb & was likely carried, which lead to more exertion & stress in the people & then a domino effect with the heat & being on those exposed switchbacks. Very sad but hope it is a case that others can learn from when setting out for causal adventures with their pets & kids.

RS&BBM
Thank you for joining in @Runswithdogs! It is wonderful to have your voice in the mix. I am a few pages behind so forgive me if this has been asked. Given your expertise and what you know about this case, how long do you think the family dog, Oski, would have been able to trek with the family before showing signs of heat exhaustion or even heat stroke given the estimated ambient temperatures. The time from when the family started hiking at 8am? 10am? until when the likely first family member (Oski) started wavering could help us figure out their route or at least estimate how far they got before, IMO, the possible cascade of events was triggered.

 

[DCA58]

I wonder if they weren’t reported Monday AM because (we think?) Ellen’s phone was at the house and still would have been receiving messages. If the person(s) texting Ellen saw messages going through they might not have worried and thought she was just busy.

But…what about the nanny? Is it possible she had access to get into the house? Would she go in if she was worried and saw the truck missing? Or was she newer to them and didn’t want to seem to be overreacting? Who was she directed to contact, if anyone, by the couple in the event she couldn’t reach them?

There are a few details like this, as you laid out @Bekind89, that trouble me because it seems we have to stretch our imaginations so much to be be able to justify the things that happened and the things they did. These details are the things that still make me question if heatstroke is the answer.

I agree

 

[bpeterson912]

Agreed; I know heat stroke doesn’t always show up on autopsy so a non-finding isn’t necessarily conclusive, but there are some post-mortem indicia. I suspect those indicia are absent if they’re looking at social media - another clue is the timing of the warrant, 8/25, so they didn’t request it by default at the start of the investigation but waited for initial findings.

We don't know that. Based on the timeline released by the Mariposa County Sheriff’s Office, search warrants were issued (not requested) on 8/25. The Sheriff's Office said the warrants were for “possible social media access,” which is pretty vague.

It's complicated for law enforcement to get its hands on personal stored electronic communications. Depending on what "social media" information the Mariposa Sherriff was seeking, they may have tried to start with a subpoena, and then turned to a warrant when that failed (and/or when the social media companies refused to cooperate). I wouldn't be surprised if LE started the process of trying to get access to social-media information long before August 25.

 

[rahod1]

RS&BBM
Thank you for joining in @Runswithdogs! It is wonderful to have your voice in the mix. I am a few pages behind so forgive me if this has been asked. Given your expertise and what you know about this case, how long do you think the family dog, Oski, would have been able to trek with the family before showing signs of heat exhaustion or even heat stroke given the estimated ambient temperatures. The time from when the family started hiking at 8am? 10am? until when the likely first family member (Oski) started wavering could help us figure out their route or at least estimate how far they got before, IMO, the possible cascade of events was triggered.

I found this info:
https://emergency-vets.com/species/dogs/dogs-heat-stroke-stress-summer/

"Unlike humans, dogs do not sweat to cool their bodies (except a small amount through the paw pads). Instead, dogs primarily regulate their temperature through their mouth, by panting. This can be very ineffective, however, when the temperature gets over 80 degrees or when a dog is in direct sunlight."

"If the temperature is over 90 degrees, do not let your pet outside for more than 10 or 20 minutes. And, make sure they are monitored during that time. If you spot any signs of heat stress, as mentioned above, bring your dog back inside and let it rest for the remainder of the day."

So it appears in this situation where temperature exceeded 90F after 9AM, the dog may have been in trouble within the first hour. MOO

 

[RickshawFan]

A local allegedly saw the family in a museum on Friday (2 days before their Sunday hike), and they remember the dad carrying the baby around and very interested in the climbing exhibit.

Yosemite is famous for climbers on those huge "walls" like Half Dome. It's a tourist attraction to watch them from below.

 

[RickshawFan]

I found this info very informative.
A Guide To Hiking Skill Levels - What Type Of Hiker Are You? | The Simple Hiker
For purposes of this discussion I'm talking about this level:

"Advanced Moderate: This person has experience with many hikes lasting at least half a day. This type of hiker is able to handle elevation gains of several thousand feet. Hiking takes place at a moderate place but the hiker also has enough experience of when to slow the pace to conserve energy. Hikes can last all day. An advanced moderate hiker also has experience hiking in different weather conditions and has a general idea of what to prepare for in colder and hot conditions."

So helpful, @rahod1, once again. In my judgment, this family wasn't at all in that category. And the baby changed the whole picture. "Moderate" means you should be able to acknowledge that a moderate hike is out of your reach. It is, almost certainly, if you have a one-year-old.
By this blogger's categories, IMO the family might be "advanced novice", but should downgrade to "novice" because of their family.
I'm not convinced this blogger has very helpful categories, because he actually classifies himself as a moderate hiker. I think you'd want a more seasoned person evaluating categories like that.
I prefer looking at trail categories, rather than people categories. Me, I think Easy hikes are the most fun. I'll do moderate with a group, but I really hate more than 7 miles. I'm not into strenuous unless I decide I'm going up a mountain like one of the Cascades or the White Mountain ridges. I'd have to be in great shape, like hiking every weekend. I would absolutely, categorically, never do anything that could be described as "off trail", "cross country" or "bushwhacking": I'd be miserable in the first few feet, and the odds of a catastrophe are astronomical.

 

[WillieMac]

Found it:
Kristie Mitchell, Mariposa County sheriff spokesperson, said the family didn’t leave for their hike until mid-morning Sunday

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253616898.html#storylink=cpy

Admittedly, I have quit reading every single post of every single page of this thread/case lately ... however, I'm pretty sure if you dig back thru the pages, there was a witness that claimed to have seen them on their way to that trailhead at 7:45AM. So I suppose if it could have taken them a while to get there and get started, "perhaps" someone might call that "mid-morning"? Regardless of what time-frame you want to call it, I think we've heard that the Temps would have been up around 90 or so already by around that time.

 

[RedHaus]

I found this info: https://emergency-vets.com/species/dogs/dogs-heat-stroke-stress-summer/... So it appears in this situation where temperature exceeded 90F after 9AM, the dog may have been in trouble within the first hour. MOO

RS&BBM
Thank you for finding this article, @rahod1. And I suspect from the veterinary text you cited, it could have been as early as 20 minutes when Oski started to show signs of heat stress (e.g. panting). So let's say it was in the 20-60 minute range. IMO that may bring us back to the idea the family did not make it far on their adventure.

And given where they were found, it could support the idea they started down the SL trail, perhaps aiming for the river for a dip as some have postulated. Even if their intent had been a roundtrip on the SL trail or a full loop, IMO they only got as far as where they were found, or perhaps a bit lower if they had turned around.

Applying this further to our data analysis so far, it could also mean it was likely not feasible for Oski to make it to the Merced river, unless carried perhaps. And I suppose that could be a possibility. Maybe Oski did waver at about 20-60 min. into their hike. And they decided to carry Oski down to the river to cool down... cascade begins.

 

[Recidivist]

Yosemite is famous for climbers on those huge "walls" like Half Dome. It's a tourist attraction to watch them from below.

It's El Capitan, and the climber's are very hard to see without some kind of binoculars or something. But just knowing they are there is pretty exciting.

 

[WillieMac]

I found this info:
https://emergency-vets.com/species/dogs/dogs-heat-stroke-stress-summer/

"Unlike humans, dogs do not sweat to cool their bodies (except a small amount through the paw pads). Instead, dogs primarily regulate their temperature through their mouth, by panting. This can be very ineffective, however, when the temperature gets over 80 degrees or when a dog is in direct sunlight."

"If the temperature is over 90 degrees, do not let your pet outside for more than 10 or 20 minutes. And, make sure they are monitored during that time. If you spot any signs of heat stress, as mentioned above, bring your dog back inside and let it rest for the remainder of the day."

So it appears in this situation where temperature exceeded 90F after 9AM, the dog may have been in trouble within the first hour. MOO

This is good info that supports what I've been thinking from the get-go here. My dog is about 80 pounds, is a short-hair, but has that double coat as well. If we're out on a walk much more than anywhere from 15 to 30 min on a summer day when the Temps are much over 75 & the sun is out (depending on the strength of the sun & the level of humidity), we are absolutely stopping to rest or we are looking for a water source for him to dip his belly into! I can't imagine that dog was comfortable after 5 or maybe 10 minutes into that hike. The ground had to be hot on his pads & the sun had to be cooking him right off the bat.

 

[CocoChanel]

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