CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[CocoChanel]

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[LifeIsAMystery]

Admittedly, I have quit reading every single post of every single page of this thread/case lately ... however, I'm pretty sure if you dig back thru the pages, there was a witness that claimed to have seen them on their way to that trailhead at 7:45AM. So I suppose if it could have taken them a while to get there and get started, "perhaps" someone might call that "mid-morning"? Regardless of what time-frame you want to call it, I think we've heard that the Temps would have been up around 90 or so already by around that time.

It's possible that they were seen in their car and that they went somewhere else first, for example, to get breakfast. Perhaps that information has come to the attention of LE or perhaps they have the geo info from the phone now. It sounds like a correction to the assumption that at 7:45 am they were definitely on the way to the trail directly when seen in car. MOO. More details should be forthcoming soon.

 

[Msskeptic]

I don't recall reading anywhere that the trail was closed *last Saturday*

'Unknown hazards' found by trail where Calif. family found dead

 

[woods]

It's possible that they were seen in their car and that they went somewhere else first, for example, to get breakfast. Perhaps that information has come to the attention of LE or perhaps they have the geo info from the phone now. It sounds like a correction to the assumption that at 7:45 am they were definitely on the way to the trail directly when seen in car. MOO. More details should be forthcoming soon.

Sunday, Aug. 15: 7:45 a.m., witness sees the Gerrish/Chung family traveling in their vehicle toward the trailhead, down Hites Cove Road north of Jerseydale in Mariposa County.
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253776303.html

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

Sunday, Aug. 15: 7:45 a.m., witness sees the Gerrish/Chung family traveling in their vehicle toward the trailhead, down Hites Cove Road north of Jerseydale in Mariposa County.
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253776303.html

Maybe there are other things in the same direction that caused them to start the hike later, ie, the statement that they started the hike, "mid-morning." I assume LE will update the timeline and that the "mid-morning" detail was based on phone data, a biometric watch or ring, etc. Or it could be an error. Time will tell. MOO>

 

[woods]

Maybe there are other things in the same direction that caused them to start the hike later, ie, the statement that they started the hike, "mid-morning." I assume LE will update the timeline and that the "mid-morning" detail was based on phone data, a biometric watch or ring, etc. Or it could be an error. Time will tell. MOO>

According to this meteorologist, he defines 'mid-morning' anywhere between 8 to 10 am: How do you define daytime and evening times in a weather forecast? | WGN-TV

 

[Deleted member 292879]

I don't recall reading anywhere that the trail was closed *last Saturday*

'Unknown hazards' found by trail where Calif. family found dead

I believe their notice was posted Saturday night 8/28 effective the next morning.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

According to this meteorologist, he defines 'mid-morning' anywhere between 8 to 10 am: How do you define daytime and evening times in a weather forecast? | WGN-TV

I assume LE will give a time they started the hike if that can be determined from the phone or other sources. We have been assuming 8ish from the report of them in the car travelling at 7:45am but perhaps a more precise time will be forthcoming. The LE spokeswoman did not say 10 but I suppose she could have meant that late. I am not familiar with the area so do not know if the trail is the only thing in that direction or if they could have gone for coffee, etc. Any locals?

 

[Deleted member 292879]

I didn’t realize that according to that most recent Chron article, one source of water tested during this investigation has been confirmed for algae bloom:

“Pen said one water test has come back positive for harmful algae bloom. Others have turned up no toxic substances and still other tests are outstanding. Officials had already warned hikers of such blooms a month before the deaths along the south fork of the Merced River, so that result is not a surprise. Such freshwater blooms are not known to kill humans.

“Because of the heat there’s a chance they may have drank the water or tried to treat the water, but we don’t know,” Pen said. “It’s very mysterious, and we’re all just waiting for the results.”

Source: SFGate

 

[Msskeptic]

I believe their notice was posted Saturday night 8/28 effective the next morning.

I've gone back in the thread and I only see one post of this info (last Sunday) that I somehow missed, and no discussion relating to it. It seems ... significant, doesn't it?

 

[woods]

I've gone back in the thread and I only see one post of this info (last Sunday) that I somehow missed, and no discussion relating to it. It seems ... significant, doesn't it?

This is their explanation for closing the trail:
“We are uncertain of the causes of death. We still haven’t gotten the results from the case,” said Leak Pen, assistant recreation officer at the Bass Lake Ranger District. “So, as a precaution, let’s go ahead and close it [the trails] because we know there’s some form of hazard to the public.”

Pen said one water was tested back positive for toxic algae bloom. Others have turned up no toxic substances, and still other tests are outstanding.

“Because of the heat there’s a chance they may have drank the water or tried to treat the water but we don’t know.” Pen said. “It’s very mysterious and we’re just all waiting for the results.”
Feds close trails near mysterious Mariposa County family death for ‘unknown hazards’

 

[janewall]

I've gone back in the thread and I only see one post of this info (last Sunday) that I somehow missed, and no discussion relating to it. It seems ... significant, doesn't it?

Significant, but the nature of the hazard is apparently being tightly guarded so there's not terribly much to discuss. Is the unnamed hazard something that naturally occurs in the area, or something introduced from the outside by means or persons unclear, would be my biggest question – but one that's not likely to be answerable by anyone on this website. And obviously, is this unnamed hazard what cost the Chung-Gerrish family their lives?

 

[Snoopster]

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[woods]

Heat exhaustion is an unfortunate reality and it will kill you fast:

Male Hiker, 32, dies from suspected heat stroke in Utah's Zion National Park after complaining of heat exhaustion at the end of a strenuous 9 mile canyon trail in 95 degree heat.

When Park Medics & EMTs dispatched to Wolfe’s location, they found him unresponsive, and administered CPR to no avail for about an hour, officials said.
Zion National Park hiker dies after complaining of heat exhaustion

To avoid heat exhaustion while outdoors, the CDC says, to pace yourself: If you’re not accustomed to working or exercising in a hot environment, start slowly and pick up the pace gradually. If exertion in the heat makes your heart pound and leaves you gasping for breath, STOP all activity. Get into a cool area or into the shade, and rest, especially if you become lightheaded, confused, weak, or faint.
https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/hiker-dies-from-heat-exhaustion-at-zion-national-park

 

[Runswithdogs]

RS&BBM
Thank you for finding this article, @rahod1. And I suspect from the veterinary text you cited, it could have been as early as 20 minutes when Oski started to show signs of heat stress (e.g. panting). So let's say it was in the 20-60 minute range. IMO that may bring us back to the idea the family did not make it far on their adventure.

And given where they were found, it could support the idea they started down the SL trail, perhaps aiming for the river for a dip as some have postulated. Even if their intent had been a roundtrip on the SL trail or a full loop, IMO they only got as far as where they were found, or perhaps a bit lower if they had turned around.

Applying this further to our data analysis so far, it could also mean it was likely not feasible for Oski to make it to the Merced river, unless carried perhaps. And I suppose that could be a possibility. Maybe Oski did waver at about 20-60 min. into their hike. And they decided to carry Oski down to the river to cool down... cascade begins.

This is within my line of thinking. Looking at the hourly temperatures that day & assuming they hit the trail between 8-9, regardless of direction, I think Oski would be starting to overheat within a mile of their car/30 min, which would have been the time to turn back (to start getting him cooled off & likely on the way to the nearest vet).
My personal opinion is that this hike was too hot to attempt with a dog full stop, but if I entertain the idea that I lived nearby & just wanted to try out a new piece of hiking gear, I would start early & turn back to the car within a 1/2 mile (but really a 1/4 mi would be safest, especially if you got a post-0800 start). Which honestly sounds pretty reasonable when you factor in that someone is packing a small child, which is added weight & an added individual susceptible to the temperatures.

With those temperatures & that exposed terrain I would expect that Oski encountered issues within the first half of the 3-4 miles down to the water (from either direction), particularly if he was off leash for some of that & over-exerting himself at the beginning when it was slightly cooler. If he was showing signs of being overheated & they’d planned for him drinking at the river, maybe they were giving him water from their camelback, a lot of dogs know how to drink from the hose, which arguably can waste a lot of water.

I have looked at the loop from both directions. I think the way the CNN article (? The one that had the best info) is worded, makes it sound like they believe them to have made the loop as LE were following footprints that headed in the gradual decline direction & then family was found when a 2nd SAR group went down the steep switchbacks. Truthfully I am shocked that they made it to the water from either direction, given how quickly those morning temps rose, & again, the terrain. to me it means they would have to be going at a good clip without breaks to get down there before realizing it was too hot. Or were they hurrying to get down because Oski was overheating & going back up wasn’t deemed possible?

I have considered the possibility of if they could have survived this ordeal if they camped out/cooled off at the water until nightfall & then attempted the hike out, assuming they made it down there & realized the gravity of the kind of trouble they were in (I feel like they could have). & I’ve also considered the possibility of their knowledge/fear of the algae preventing their doing so, which truthfully would be a difficult decision to make if they knew of the risks.
If I were in those temperatures with an overheating dog, I think I’d take the risk & try to find a spot with some sort of good flow, without big mats & get them in to cool off… knowing it could be risking their life either way.. it’d be a terrible position to be in. But I think by the time it was 90, hiking out from down there wouldn’t be an option. If Oski got sick & passed while they were at the water would it scare them to want to hurry themselves out without taking stock of how they were feeling?
I think if they did make it down to the water there was likely a lot of fear & distress impacting their decision making.

Just looking at this from the dog’s perspective I really feel there had to be some signs that this wasn’t a good plan within the first mile, it was already getting to be too hot even if they started right at 0800 sharp in a burned mountain valley with the only reprieve from the heat a potentially algae-infested river several miles away. & any time you ever take a hike starting on a downhill, you have to know that it’s going to be an uphill on the way out & it’s not getting any cooler out.. even with no fore-planning/route-finding/weather-scoping, that fact should be glaringly obvious to even the most oblivious, which from all we can tell, this couple was not - what prevented them from cutting their losses & turning around & heading back within the first mile of their venture?
As a dog owner, avid dog hiker, & vet - that’s been the hard part of this for me to grapple with.

 

[NSamuelle]

This is within my line of thinking. Looking at the hourly temperatures that day & assuming they hit the trail between 8-9, regardless of direction, I think Oski would be starting to overheat within a mile of their car/30 min, which would have been the time to turn back (to start getting him cooled off & likely on the way to the nearest vet).
My personal opinion is that this hike was too hot to attempt with a dog full stop, but if I entertain the idea that I lived nearby & just wanted to try out a new piece of hiking gear, I would start early & turn back to the car within a 1/2 mile (but really a 1/4 mi would be safest, especially if you got a post-0800 start). Which honestly sounds pretty reasonable when you factor in that someone is packing a small child, which is added weight & an added individual susceptible to the temperatures.

With those temperatures & that exposed terrain I would expect that Oski encountered issues within the first half of the 3-4 miles down to the water (from either direction), particularly if he was off leash for some of that & over-exerting himself at the beginning when it was slightly cooler. If he was showing signs of being overheated & they’d planned for him drinking at the river, maybe they were giving him water from their camelback, a lot of dogs know how to drink from the hose, which arguably can waste a lot of water.

I have looked at the loop from both directions. I think the way the CNN article (? The one that had the best info) is worded, makes it sound like they believe them to have made the loop as LE were following footprints that headed in the gradual decline direction & then family was found when a 2nd SAR group went down the steep switchbacks. Truthfully I am shocked that they made it to the water from either direction, given how quickly those morning temps rose, & again, the terrain. to me it means they would have to be going at a good clip without breaks to get down there before realizing it was too hot. Or were they hurrying to get down because Oski was overheating & going back up wasn’t deemed possible?

I have considered the possibility of if they could have survived this ordeal if they camped out/cooled off at the water until nightfall & then attempted the hike out, assuming they made it down there & realized the gravity of the kind of trouble they were in (I feel like they could have). & I’ve also considered the possibility of their knowledge/fear of the algae preventing their doing so, which truthfully would be a difficult decision to make if they knew of the risks.
If I were in those temperatures with an overheating dog, I think I’d take the risk & try to find a spot with some sort of good flow, without big mats & get them in to cool off… knowing it could be risking their life either way.. it’d be a terrible position to be in. But I think by the time it was 90, hiking out from down there wouldn’t be an option. If Oski got sick & passed while they were at the water would it scare them to want to hurry themselves out without taking stock of how they were feeling?
I think if they did make it down to the water there was likely a lot of fear & distress impacting their decision making.

Just looking at this from the dog’s perspective I really feel there had to be some signs that this wasn’t a good plan within the first mile, it was already getting to be too hot even if they started right at 0800 sharp in a burned mountain valley with the only reprieve from the heat a potentially algae-infested river several miles away. & any time you ever take a hike starting on a downhill, you have to know that it’s going to be an uphill on the way out & it’s not getting any cooler out.. even with no fore-planning/route-finding/weather-scoping, that fact should be glaringly obvious to even the most oblivious, which from all we can tell, this couple was not - what prevented them from cutting their losses & turning around & heading back within the first mile of their venture?
As a dog owner, avid dog hiker, & vet - that’s been the hard part of this for me to grapple with.

You said it perfectly, and I grapple with this as well: “what prevented them from cutting their losses & turning around & heading back within the first mile of their venture?”

 

[Shamrock1]

Was there something especially meaningful about that particular date - an anniversary of something, perhaps? Just trying to think of a reason why they went out/didn’t turn back. First date, some kind of spiritual thing, marking a past loss?

 

[woods]

Was there something especially meaningful about that particular date - an anniversary of something, perhaps? Just trying to think of a reason why they went out/didn’t turn back. First date, some kind of spiritual thing, marking a past loss?

According to a family friend, they reportedly went hiking every weekend.
Entire family reported missing, later found dead in Mariposa County

 

[Coquette]

My apologies is this has been mentioned, but Mariposa County has a history of illegal marijuana grows. The illegal growers are known to use toxic and often deadly chemicals to ward off animals (and perhaps people?). I do wonder if this family stumbled upon a grow and deadly pesticides. Word now of an 'unknown hazard' off the trail where they were found has me really focused on this. I'm still of the mindset that this was poisoning, intentional or not. MOO.

'Unknown hazards' found on Sierra National Forest trail near where Calif. family was found dead

“Some of the [pesticide] is so concentrated animals die in a matter of minutes, if not seconds,” said Forest Service researcher Craig Thompson."

Link:

Cleaning Up Illegal Marijuana Grow Sites


Men identified in illegal marijuana grow shooting in Mariposa County


"I don’t have direct knowledge of, but have heard of, recent property sales where the new owner’s intention is to illegally cultivate marijuana. The potential problems with contaminated runoff....."

Link:

Marijuana Cultivation in Mariposa County

 

[rahod1]

.

Just looking at this from the dog’s perspective I really feel there had to be some signs that this wasn’t a good plan within the first mile, it was already getting to be too hot even if they started right at 0800 sharp in a burned mountain valley with the only reprieve from the heat a potentially algae-infested river several miles away. & any time you ever take a hike starting on a downhill, you have to know that it’s going to be an uphill on the way out & it’s not getting any cooler out.. even with no fore-planning/route-finding/weather-scoping, that fact should be glaringly obvious to even the most oblivious, which from all we can tell, this couple was not - what prevented them from cutting their losses & turning around & heading back within the first mile of their venture?
As a dog owner, avid dog hiker, & vet - that’s been the hard part of this for me to grapple with.

Yes and this applies to the infant as well. Nothing prevented them from turning back early. This is essentially a tale of getting in over your head. MOO