CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[SpideySense]

I have actually wondered if they did that -- this is the one thing I think makes the most sense if I were in their situation, which is to hang out at the river overnight (on such extreme heat days, in my experience, it would stay too hot to hike up comfortably -- over 80*F, let's say -- for several hours after dark) and hike up at or just before dawn when it's coolest.

LE hasn't mentioned this and I don't see why it would be held confidential if they did find evidence of an overnight camp spot, so I guess they didn't do that.

I also wish we had some indication of whether they went into the water or not. Even if they were worried about the algae toxin, at some point the need to cool down would take priority, I would think. MOO

My thinking is that by waiting until it was early evening to hike out, it might have unfortunately set them up to be caught out in the open in a summer lightning storm halfway up the mountain.

 

[Seattle1]

HuffPost@HuffPost

Toxicology tests are still pending in the deaths of hikers John Gerrish and Ellen Chung, their baby, Miju, and dog.



Toxic Algae Shuts Down California River Area Near Where Hiking Family Died
Toxicology tests are still pending in the deaths of hikers John Gerrish and Ellen Chung, their baby, Miju, and dog.
huffpost.com

6:24 PM · Sep 5, 2021

 

[WillieMac]

I guess I don’t agree that there’s no evidence of death by lightning at the scene. I’ve done my best to lay out the evidence that this might have been a ground current incident, and to document that evidence, but no one is required to believe me.

I feel like it's important to remember that we're not a Jury here that *NEEDS* to convince the other members that they need to agree with their point of view. As hard as it may be sometimes, it's not only ok to agree to disagree, but it is actually encouraged to recognize that. I know that I am *several* pages behind on this thread but from what I've seen so far, you have done a very respectable job of stating your case. When you first started, I actually disregarded the info basically ignored the comments. But the info you have shared since have definitely made me reconsider and understand your point of view MUCH better. That being said, I still put that down somewhere between what (IN MY OWM OPINION) I believe may have happened here as about option #3 or #4. I'm not disagreeing with any of the info you have shared. I just have a different perspective & opinion.
What I'm getting at though is that...that really is OK. I don't expect everyone else to agree with me when I post a comment. ...and I don't understand why anyone should. The beauty & power of a site like this is that it brings together SOO many different perspectives and opinions.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

My thinking is that by waiting until it was early evening to hike out, it might have unfortunately set them up to be caught out in the open in a summer lightning storm halfway up the mountain.

There was a lightning storm? ETA: Can you please link a source to the report of the storm?

 

[Auntie Cipation]

My thinking is that by waiting until it was early evening to hike out, it might have unfortunately set them up to be caught out in the open in a summer lightning storm halfway up the mountain.

Yes early evening would be no good -- shady but still way too hot, and also snakey.

Even if it was a full moon (I have no idea the moon phase or timing that night) I still would opt for dawn or just before.

I mean -- today was mid 90s in my part of the state -- not scorching, but ordinary summer heat. Below 50 at night so it takes a few hours in the morning before it's uncomfortably warm outside. I did some painting on my shed this am but by 10 am I was only ok working outside if I could work in a shady area (not very exertive work -- seated weeding, etc). And by noon even that was uncomfortable and I went inside.

But my point is that now, after a mildly hot summer day, it is now approaching 10pm and it's only just recently dropped below 80*F outside. It feels nice out there because it's breezy but if I was hiking up a steep hill I would no doubt soon overheat because there is still a lot of heat in the air. And that's on a day 15 degrees cooler than what they experienced.

Okay, the lightning -- AFAIK there were three strikes noted that day on the east slope. But I've seen nothing suggesting there was actually a thunderstorm, either on the east side or where they were. You started out talking about unexpected dry lightning or ground lightning, both of which I agree are possible. Are you now suggesting there was an actual thunderstorm that afternoon, as in big dark clouds (shade!) and rumbles they would have been able to hear? Is there any evidence for that?

 

[SpideySense]

I feel like it's important to remember that we're not a Jury here that *NEEDS* to convince the other members that they need to agree with their point of view. As hard as it may be sometimes, it's not only ok to agree to disagree, but it is actually encouraged to recognize that. I know that I am *several* pages behind on this thread but from what I've seen so far, you have done a very respectable job of stating your case. When you first started, I actually disregarded the info basically ignored the comments. But the info you have shared since have definitely made me reconsider and understand your point of view MUCH better. That being said, I still put that down somewhere between what (IN MY OWM OPINION) I believe may have happened here as about option #3 or #4. I'm not disagreeing with any of the info you have shared. I just have a different perspective & opinion.
What I'm getting at though is that...that really is OK. I don't expect everyone else to agree with me when I post a comment. ...and I don't understand why anyone should. The beauty & power of a site like this is that it brings together SOO many different perspectives and opinions.

Yes, I couldn’t agree more, and thank you for your kind words. <modsnip>

 

[SpideySense]

Yes early evening would be no good -- shady but still way too hot, and also snakey.

Even if it was a full moon (I have no idea the moon phase or timing that night) I still would opt for dawn or just before.

I mean -- today was mid 90s in my part of the state -- not scorching, but ordinary summer heat. Below 50 at night so it takes a few hours in the morning before it's uncomfortably warm outside. I did some painting on my shed this am but by 10 am I was only ok working outside if I could work in a shady area (not very exertive work -- seated weeding, etc). And by noon even that was uncomfortable and I went inside.

But my point is that now, after a mildly hot summer day, it is now approaching 10pm and it's only just recently dropped below 80*F outside. It feels nice out there because it's breezy but if I was hiking up a steep hill I would no doubt soon overheat because there is still a lot of heat in the air. And that's on a day 15 degrees cooler than what they experienced.

Okay, the lightning -- AFAIK there were three strikes noted that day on the east slope. But I've seen nothing suggesting there was actually a thunderstorm, either on the east side or where they were. You started out talking about unexpected dry lightning or ground lightning, both of which I agree are possible. Are you now suggesting there was an actual thunderstorm that afternoon, as in big dark clouds (shade!) and rumbles they would have been able to hear? Is there any evidence for that?

I posted earlier that there were 4 recorded strikes about 25 miles due east of Hites Cove between 4:38 and 6:25 that day/evening, and attached screenshots to my post. There was also a thunderstorm warning issued for the Sierra Foothills for that evening, Aug 15.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I posted earlier that there were 4 recorded strikes about 25 miles due east of Hites Cove between 4:38 and 6:25 that day/evening, and attached screenshots to my post. There was also a thunderstorm warning issued for the Sierra Foothills for that evening, Aug 15.

Thanks. I saw the lightning map posted earlier in the thread but only recall three strikes, not that it matters 3 vs 4. But I did not see a thunderstorm warning. I'll look at your earlier posts but if you have it at hand woukd you repost that please? That changes my sense of things quite a bit.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

I posted earlier that there were 4 recorded strikes about 25 miles due east of Hites Cove between 4:38 and 6:25 that day/evening, and attached screenshots to my post. There was also a thunderstorm warning issued for the Sierra Foothills for that evening, Aug 15.

Can you please link the source? I have read most of the posts, but have missed it.

 

[SpideySense]

Here’s the Thunderstorm Warning link: National Weather Service Reports There Is a Low Chance That Thunderstorms Will Develop Over the Sierra Nevada Each Afternoon Through Monday

From the article:

“August 14, 2021 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports there is a low chance that thunderstorms will develop over the Sierra Nevada each afternoon through Monday.

The storms are expected to be dry or produce little rainfall.

In addition to dangerous cloud to ground lightning, there will be an increase threat of fire starts due to gusty erratic winds, dry vegetation and little rainfall.”

 

[SpideySense]

Here are the screenshots from the blitzortung.org website. Three strikes are white because they were the most recent on that screenshot, the fourth is older and red.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Here are the screenshots from the blitzortung.org website. Three strikes are white because they were the most recent on that screenshot, the fourth is older and red.

Thanks. But I’m not local and it’s an unmarked map for the 16th, the day after they were reported missing. What does it mean?

ETA: Iirc, strikes were reported about 40 km away?

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Here’s the Thunderstorm Warning link: National Weather Service Reports There Is a Low Chance That Thunderstorms Will Develop Over the Sierra Nevada Each Afternoon Through Monday

From the article:

“August 14, 2021 - The National Weather Service Hanford Office reports there is a low chance that thunderstorms will develop over the Sierra Nevada each afternoon through Monday.

The storms are expected to be dry or produce little rainfall.

In addition to dangerous cloud to ground lightning, there will be an increase threat of fire starts due to gusty erratic winds, dry vegetation and little rainfall.”

Thank you for the forecast, but I didn’t hear of any actual storms in Mariposa. We’re there any? (Not badgering, simply trying to understand.)

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I just looked at the weather data for Lee Vining that day -- that is I believe the nearest station to where those strikes were (if they were straight east of Yosemite, which I couldn't really tell). Anyway it does show a dip in temperature in mid afternoon and then a bit of a rebound, plus some short wind events, consistent with an hour or two of slight shade relief from thunderstorms and then clearing and heat returning.

I suppose at this point I personally would lay out the probabilities like this:

Medical incident not caused by heat: 5%

Lightning: 5%

Effects of algae or other natural environmental toxin somehow not observable in autopsy (insect sting, snakebite, etc): 5%

Heat augmented by exertion: 85%

How do other folks lay the odds?

Not sure there is much left to do besides wait to learn about the tox report, whatever relevant bits they glean from his phone, and the clues they got from the trail (places indicating distress, camp or rest site at river, diaper bag, discarded packs or add'l water containers etc) that haven't yet been made public. MOO

 

[SpideySense]

Thanks. But I’m not local and it’s an unmarked map for the 16th, the day after they were reported missing. What does it mean?

ETA: Iirc, strikes were reported about 40 km away?

Right, it’s 01:25 UTC, which is 6:25pm PDT on August 15th. The red strike was at 4:38pm PDT August 15 and recorded in the vicinity of Triple Divide Peak, Yosemite.

 

[EndoraXplorer]

Ok, so the Mariposa Sheriff's Office does a monthly Facebook Live video update, "Inside the Office with Sheriff Jeremy Briese."
This is the latest update, from September 2. Link: Log In or Sign Up to View (I think you have to be logged into FB to see it). The update is about 30 minutes long.

• 12:30-14:50 Sheriff Briese talks about the Gerrish / Chung case
  • He says the detectives are working around the clock with multiple other agencies.
  • He says that the FBI is helping as well.
• 13:50 or so he says a water sample came back positive with "high levels" of Anatoxin-a. (Anatoxin-a - Wikipedia) They are working with state and Federal partners.
• 18:15 - Q&A begins - several relevant questions
• 18:26 - Question: "Is toxicology results back?" He says some individual toxicology results are in, but they still do not have an exact cause of death yet.
• 22:45 - Question "Have there been any reports of livestock succumbing due to the Harmful Algae Bloom?" They have not.

 

[Coquette]

Sorry to quote my own post, but I did a bit of sleuthing about illegal marijuana grow operations in Mariposa county. It appears common knowledge from fellow posters who know the area that this activity is prevalent. And I believe it is common knowledge that any form of illegal drug trade is rife with violence associated with protecting those criminal interests.

Anyhow, not that I think this a top theory contender, I wonder if LE is trying / has tried to connect any dots between the fate of this family and any grow-ops in the area. I found two articles that may be of interest... One is about a 7/11/2021 fatal shooting associated with a grow-ops 18 miles from Hites Cove Road. Was there aggrivated friction within Mariposa County grow-ops this summer?

The other is about a major bust in Mariposa County in 2016. Clearly that Sheriff's department is very busy!

I personally would be terrified to stumble across an illegal grow... the outcome could be indiscriminately lethal. I won't belabor this for the good of the order. But I do want to bring some attention to a remote scenario. See the quote of my post for an idea.

Men identified in illegal marijuana grow shooting in Mariposa County

Ten Arrests in Mariposa County for Marijuana Cultivation

I posted this theory on page 5 of this thread with multiple links, including pesticide runoff and contamination as well as recent murders in Mariposa that involved one of said grows. I've done a lot of research. I live in California. There are several counties known for Illegal grows and Mariposa county is definitely one of them. There is a current round of crackdowns taking place in California against Illigal marijuana grows. They've been popping up in the news quite regularly.

There could be something here. It's certainly worth considering.

MOO.

 

[wary]

I just looked at the weather data for Lee Vining that day -- that is I believe the nearest station to where those strikes were (if they were straight east of Yosemite, which I couldn't really tell). Anyway it does show a dip in temperature in mid afternoon and then a bit of a rebound, plus some short wind events, consistent with an hour or two of slight shade relief from thunderstorms and then clearing and heat returning.

I suppose at this point I personally would lay out the probabilities like this:

Medical incident not caused by heat: 5%

Lightning: 5%

Effects of algae or other natural environmental toxin somehow not observable in autopsy (insect sting, snakebite, etc): 5%

Heat augmented by exertion: 85%

How do other folks lay the odds?

Not sure there is much left to do besides wait to learn about the tox report, whatever relevant bits they glean from his phone, and the clues they got from the trail (places indicating distress, camp or rest site at river, diaper bag, discarded packs or add'l water containers etc) that haven't yet been made public. MOO

And footprints. I think footprints will tell a lot. (And if it’s true that LE thinks they were trying to do the full loop, based on footprints, well, there’s certainly nothing I can say.)

I think your probabilities look solid.

I’d tweak some of the percentages downward, and slightly rephrase things:

Medical incident not caused by heat, happening to one adult, causing delay that made the other adult be incapacitated by heat: 3%

Lightning: 3%

Natural toxin of some sort, probably not killing directly, but slowing or incapacitating at least one adult, and making the family vulnerable to the heat: 3%

(By the way, I suspect that no rattlesnake would have been active in that weather, but of course, its hiding place could have been disturbed.)

Some sort of foul play: less than 1%.

Heat augmented by exertion: 90%

All this is my opinion only, subject to instantaneous change if any real evidence is reported.

 

[RedHaus]

OK, I've been doing some more digging into illegal marijuana grow-ops for this case. The fact that this is such widespread illegal activity in CA will be no surprise to you. But the widespread use of CARBOFURAN may be.

1. Could this family have inadvertently come across or been exposed to Carbofuran - a pesticide lethal to animals?

2. Could it have been Carbofuran exposure to Oski or any family member that started the catastrophic cascade?

3. Could that explain the use of HazMat suits by LE when they first investigated the scene (per MSM)?

4. Could this explain the recent precautions taken by local LE citing potential "hazard(s)" found on/near the trail?

This Brutal Pesticide Creates a 'Circle of Death.' So Why Is It Making a Comeback?

"Wanting to see the sites for himself, Gabriel accompanied an armed officer and two other researchers to a location known as Mill Creek on the Hoopa Valley Reservation. Winding along the banks of a salmon stream—deep in a gorge where Gabriel had once radio-collared gray foxes—they came upon a denuded patch of forest where 130-year-old tanoaks once stood. The growers had felled the trees and planted thousands of pot plants up to the creek’s edge. Now that police had confiscated the marijuana, all that was left was barren land littered with irrigation lines and refuse. The group found food, sleeping bags, tents, sprayers, trash pits, and stashes of toxicants—including rat poison and a bottle of carbofuran.

“It was a witches’ brew,” Gabriel says. “We were like, ‘Wow, this isn’t some little foray,’ like back in the day when a guy would hike down the trail, water his plants, and leave. People were living down here. Then we walked another trail and found another plot, and another. We didn’t even cover half of it all that day. There are hundreds of these sites.”

To document the problem, Gabriel and his colleagues now work side by side with officers as they raid plots guarded by armed growers. The scientists dress in camouflage and wear face paint; Gabriel carries a gun. “This isn’t bravado,” he says. “We want to go home at the end of the day.”

Often the teams encounter Gatorade bottles filled with carbofuran and tuna tins stuffed with carbofuran-tainted meat. The labels on jugs of chemical are frequently in Spanish, indicating they were smuggled from Mexico. Gabriel questions the growers on site, after they’ve been arrested, and some have admitted to using carbofuran to keep animals from rampaging their camps because, they say, it worked great for getting rid of jaguars preying on livestock back home in Mexico.

The scientists’ bold field work is paying off, if only to document a compounding problem. In 2013 they discovered carbofuran at 20 percent of the raided sites. Just six years later it’s been found at more than 80 percent of them. Gabriel suspects the growers are increasingly using carbofuran not just because of its potency with animals, but also with law enforcement: Media outlets have reported officers exposed to the chemical being hospitalized for nausea, blurry vision, and migraines."

Sheriff’s sergeant Nathan Trujillo, a member of the Trinity County Crimes Unit who has been working with Gabriel’s team for about seven years, has had some close calls on the raids. In 2015, for instance, he and his K9 Johnny were going into an area where a forester had reported an illegal grow site. “We kept seeing pink tuna cans along the trail,” he says. “In the camp, we found a bottle of carbofuran, open and empty.” After splashing through some water, Johnny seized up, started foaming at the mouth, and then vomiting. Trujillo rushed the dog to the vet. “I don’t know how they saved him, but they did,” he says. “You used to worry about getting shot or breaking a leg in a canyon. Now you have to worry about this almost invisible weapon these guys have.”

 

[RedHaus]

I posted this theory on page 5 of this thread with multiple links, including pesticide runoff and contamination as well as recent murders in Mariposa that involved one of said grows. I've done a lot of research. I live in California. There are several counties known for Illegal grows and Mariposa county is definitely one of them. There is a current round of crackdowns taking place in California against Illigal marijuana grows. They've been popping up in the news quite regularly. There could be something here. It's certainly worth considering.
MOO.

Thank you @Coquette for reminding me of your initial post on this topic. I knew I wasn't the first to consider this. But given my preliminary research - clearly you've been studying this much longer and deeper - I am starting to wonder too.