CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[LifeIsAMystery]

I posted in thread one that I thought they may have planned to go down Hites Cove to Nutmeg Gulch as mentioned in the comments on AllTrails and then go back the same way. I thought maybe the steepness going down may have been difficult with the baby and he thought switchbacks, though longer, might be easier going up.

This is a good theory too. Those switchbacks are so exposed to the afternoon sun.

 

[Seattle1]

Hmm. So the foot and paw prints indicated they likely DID do the loop. So if they started downhill on the part with the wildflowers and then hit the river, they could’ve hit the river about an hour and a half in? So around 9:30 am. Then they would’ve traveled the river bank and maybe stopped for a bit. Then if they started up the trail they may have reached the base around 11? Leaving them with an hour or so to go in extreme heat.

So maybe they just badly misjudged and got stuck. I doubt the carried enough water. So possibly they tried to desperately cool down with poisonous water which compounded their problems.

Confusing case.

I disagree that authorities believe the family completed the 8-mile loop but that once LE located the couple's vehicle, they were able to use footprints to locate the family. The article quoted/linked, dated Aug 20, was very early in the investigation and I think subsequent posts tried to correct that assumption. MOO

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8/26/2021

Mariposa Sheriff’s Office Update on the Gerrish – Chung Family | Sierra News Online

 

[gitana1]

No wildflowers this time of year. Spring only (and only spectacular if we get some rain).

Poisonous water probably does play a part - I had no idea that toxic algae could through off so many bizarre toxins (created through bacteria, apparently).

Yes. But even though it’s not wildflower season it’s the only way I knew to describe the possible route.

 

[SpideySense]

MOO

I’ve been thinking more about what their experience may have been like if they saw lightning from that storm cell approaching them, presuming they were still alive and well at that point.

From my own experience, being exposed outside in an open space with lightning around is one of the scariest things imaginable (I’m lightning phobic, I’ll admit). Sometimes you have to maintain a lightning crouch for 30 minutes or more, waiting for the weather to approach, pass over you, and then move off a safe distance before feeling “safe.”

People assume the crouch position as soon as it dawns on you that there’s a very good chance you’ll be struck. Mileage may vary on when that realization comes for each person. Some people crouch when they can hear thunder, others wait until there’s a very close strike or the air seems to hum.

I remember crouching, and then the dreadful wait for a strike. I remember using that time to plan what I’m going to do the moment the strike hits and I can run. Then “BOOM” and you’re off running to a safer location before crouching again. And you keep doing that. Each strike that doesn’t kill you buys you 10 seconds or so to move to safety before the cloud recharges.

It might have been that they were much higher up on the switchbacks when the danger from the approaching storm cell became obvious to them. Maybe they were only a 1/4 mile from the top. But with lightning on a mountain side, the only “safer” location would be racing down, not up.

Maybe Jon and Ellen were caught in a series of “crouch, wait for lightning strike, race down the switchbacks, then crouch again, etc.” Maybe Jon took the baby and dog because he was stronger or faster and could get the baby out of danger more quickly. Maybe Ellen was doing her best to keep up as they hurried down the mountain.

That could explain their positions and why Ellen was 30 yards higher on the trail. She might have actually been following behind them, at a somewhat slower pace.

MOO

 

[Owlpellet]

That could explain their positions and why Ellen was 30 yards higher on the trail. She might have actually been following behind them, at a somewhat slower pace.

I don’t think Ellen would have too much trouble keeping up with Jonathan carrying a baby and a medium sized dog. I think she was fitter than he was, although not as strong obviously.

Whatever the scenario was I’d have thought one would have the baby and the other the dog. The fact they were both with Jonathan at the end makes me think Ellen was going for help.

 

[wary]

I hope the phone will have more data on the route but if the footprints are correct and they did nearly the full loop, I wonder if that was the intended plan.

Jonathan researched the route the day before the hike, right? That was in the official timeline. Perhaps they planned a down/back route to the river, but then at the river, something changed. If there was no phone service down there and he hadn't saved the trail map on his phone in advance, he could have been going off his memory of what he researched the day before. Maybe he incorrectly remembered the loop route and thought taking the loop would be a shorter or easier way to return to the car, rather than returning the way they came. If the hike down to the river had been really strenuous (and I'm sure it was, in that heat!), they may have wanted to try some other way to get back to the car, even if that other way wasn't the original plan.

Perhaps it was a case of sunk cost fallacy, unsure when it would be shorter/easier to turn back and backtrack versus continuing on the loop to get back to the car.

I just can't imagine a situation in which they intentionally planned that long of a loop hike on that hot of a day with a baby and a dog.

I remember earlier posts where people with hiking experience were saying that people have a tendency to continue on loops, even when it would be wiser to turn back.

 

[Arise]

I spent so many summers with my grandparents a bit north of Mariposa and summer camps in Wawona. Its so sad thinking not only did this family die out there, but that there are so many tragic possibilities. This was such a beautiful area of CA and now it struggles with the fallout of global warming and illegal drug operations. I know how this family could have fallen in love with area that tragically also killed them.

I don’t know what to think anymore about how their story ended, but I'm thinking of them, their family, and their community, hoping they receive closure soon.

 

[SpideySense]

I don’t think Ellen would have too much trouble keeping up with Jonathan carrying a baby and a medium sized dog. I think she was fitter than he was, although not as strong obviously.

Whatever the scenario was I’d have thought one would have the baby and the other the dog. The fact they were both with Jonathan at the end makes me think Ellen was going for help.

IMO, how fast you run in that situation relates more to your subjective level of panic than to your physical ability. I recall following the cloud of dust my mom was leaving as she ran/slid down a switchback. It didn’t seem like the risk of a broken ankle would have slowed her down. And I envision him running with the dog on the leash running alongside him, while he’s carrying baby. Running while carrying both dog and baby would be tough indeed.

 

[Arise]

I remember earlier posts where people with hiking experience were saying that people have a tendency to continue on loops, even when it would be wiser to turn back.

Not anywhere close to as serious, but I've spent a lot of time carrying a preschooler / cajoling her into walking a little further after giving into requests to go a little further and finish the loop rather than turning back on our local hikes. It's hard to gage when your own capacity on a hike is really different than other individuals in your party.

 

[Parsnip]

I am having a hard time seeing how a sitting position would result from a lightning strike, unless the person was already sitting. Especially while crouching, wearing stiff hiking boots, maybe even with a shank in them. Wouldn’t the bulk of one’s mass be pitched forward, rather than backward?

I also tend to think instinct would guide a parent to remove the baby from the pack if some known imminent threat such as lightning required a speedy response. Those packs are bulky and require harnesses on the person carrying them as well as the child. Of course the pack could be carried with the handles, but then how to hold onto the dog? Managing moving a dog and a baby backpack possibly in the dark, if this would have happened after sunset, seems unlikely.

MOO

 

[Parsnip]

Another thought about the lightning theory…

A ground strike strong enough to kill two people 30 yards away…what would have likely happened to a cell phone being carried in a pocket in those circumstances? I don’t know anything about electronics, and I can’t find an answer to this online.

 

[10ofRods]

Right?! Same. I read that people on a patio at a seaside restaurant were impacted by aerosolized algae in the ocean, had breathing issues and the restaurant was subsequently closed. Not sure if that is possible with the type of algae in the river but I had no idea.

I do think it would have been extremely difficult to keep a hot and thirsty dog away from the river, regardless of what the plan may or may not have been, I think Oski would have been trying to dart down to cool off even from the HC trail if they were on that leg.

What I'm getting is that bacteria that live amongst algae make the situation really prone to various mutations. Plus, given that it is halfway up the Sierra, we know that rocks and things can contain arsenic or other toxins as a result of waste products of bacteria and/or algae.

4 billion years ago, archaeobacteria incorporated many things that are toxic to humans in their structure. We just don't usually see algaic scum on the Merced at that altitude - but this year, it's flowing like a stagnant "creeK" in the lowlands.

 

[10ofRods]

Yes. But even though it’s not wildflower season it’s the only way I knew to describe the possible route.

Well, to me it seems like the average Hite Cove loop. I think they knew it was going to be dry and barren at this time of year. But there's no particular attraction to it (other than true solitude, as when it's this hot, almost no one does that loop). In the spring, it would be far more heavily traveled.

Good to see you, btw. Think about you often. World is crazy right now.

 

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

Well, to me it seems like the average Hite Cove loop. I think they knew it was going to be dry and barren at this time of year. But there's no particular attraction to it (other than true solitude, as when it's this hot, almost no one does that loop). In the spring, it would be far more heavily traveled.

Good to see you, btw. Think about you often. World is crazy right now.

No particular attraction to it, except possibly for mines in the area, that Jonathan liked to explore. And the river at the bottom of the trail, which is known to have a good swimming hole, but that attraction was cancelled out when the Forest Service put up the algae warning a month before they took the hike.

Still, at the peak of summer heat and after a fire in the area a couple of years prior, it's hard to undnerstand the decision to do that particular hike that day/week/month. When I saw the photo of the SAR helicopter flying over where they were found, I thought the area looked lie a moonscape. Not the kind of place for a family outing, IMO.

 

[Figuring]

I remember earlier posts where people with hiking experience were saying that people have a tendency to continue on loops, even when it would be wiser to turn back.

Yes, that was something @RickshawFan mentioned, which I thought was very interesting! That there's a psychological urge to complete a loop once started. However, he also thought that it was a distinct possibility that the family did not attempt the full loop in the first place (i.e., that they actually went down Savage Lundy some presently unknown distance, & back up that same way again).

Although LE originally said they thought the family did the full loop, they haven't maintained that, & another poster pointed out that this was subsequently deleted from original reports. LE also did mention something about finding footprints consistent with the family size, but did not say whereabouts on the trail, for how long of a distance, or in which direction(s). I wish we knew, or we come to know, as the footprints (if distinguishable) could tell an awful lot!

 

[SpideySense]

Another thought about the lightning theory…

A ground strike strong enough to kill two people 30 yards away…what would have likely happened to a cell phone being carried in a pocket in those circumstances? I don’t know anything about electronics, and I can’t find an answer to this online.

That’s a great question that I don’t know the answer to. If the idea is that current from the strike travels across the ground and then into you to complete a circuit, stopping your heart or in less severe cases causing you serious shock, there’s a good chance a phone in your pocket would remain completely outside the circuit (why jump to a phone in a pocket when your body provides an adequate path?) and remain functional and unscathed.

For those who’ve never seen how ground current from a nearby lightning bolt can drop you instantly, I’m attaching a famous video of a soccer game where a lightning strike hit the field and its ground current electrocuted several players.

TRIGGER WARNING: No player or person died in this incident. They all recovered to varying extents after medical treatment. However, some of the video may be upsetting or disturbing to the viewer, and it’s age restricted. One player can be seen still twitching immediately after the strike, and they are all obviously in pain and distress while medics are actively trying to revive them. [ETA: You can actually see where the bolt hits the field at 0:17-18. An astute YouTuber pointed out that if you look at the sign “IFISWA” behind the corner flag, you see a puff of smoke right around the first “I” and the players drop at the same time. Scary stuff]

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[gitana1]

I disagree that authorities believe the family completed the 8-mile loop but that once LE located the couple's vehicle, they were able to use footprints to locate the family. The article quoted/linked, dated Aug 20, was very early in the investigation and I think subsequent posts tried to correct that assumption. MOO

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8/26/2021

Mariposa Sheriff’s Office Update on the Gerrish – Chung Family | Sierra News Online

Ya’ll have my head spinning like a top! No sooner than I think one theory makes sense, here comes more points or facts that make me question again.

Well, to me it seems like the average Hite Cove loop. I think they knew it was going to be dry and barren at this time of year. But there's no particular attraction to it (other than true solitude, as when it's this hot, almost no one does that loop). In the spring, it would be far more heavily traveled.

Good to see you, btw. Think about you often. World is crazy right now.

Good to see you too! I’ve been so busy. And now trying to stay alive as the courts are starting to open back up!!!

 

[RedHaus]

Another thought about the lightning theory…

A ground strike strong enough to kill two people 30 yards away…what would have likely happened to a cell phone being carried in a pocket in those circumstances? I don’t know anything about electronics, and I can’t find an answer to this online.

BBM

Hi @Parsnip. I may have found the answer to your question! Since JG's phone was in his shirt pocket and is being analyzed by the FBI, per LE, I suspect it was not melted or burned. As such, this may derail the lightning strike theory a bit...

...there is a misconception that cell phones attract lightning, John Jensenius, lightning safety specialist for the National Weather Service, said. If someone is struck by lightning and they have a cell phone on them, it will usually melt or burn. People have taken that and blamed the cell phone, Jensenius said, but in reality it is unrelated.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...-your-cell-phone-during-a-thunderstorm/328975

 

[Figuring]

...there is a misconception that cell phones attract lightning, John Jensenius, lightning safety specialist for the National Weather Service, said. If someone is struck by lightning and they have a cell phone on them, it will usually melt or burn. People have taken that and blamed the cell phone, Jensenius said, but in reality it is unrelated.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...-your-cell-phone-during-a-thunderstorm/328975

(bold above originally from @RedHaus. Text RSBM)

This is a very interesting find, RedHaus!

 

[gitana1]

That’s a great question that I don’t know the answer to. If the idea is that current from the strike travels across the ground and then into you to complete a circuit, stopping your heart or in less severe cases causing you serious shock, there’s a good chance a phone in your pocket would remain completely outside the circuit (why jump to a phone in a pocket when your body provides an adequate path?) and remain functional and unscathed.

For those who’ve never seen how ground current from a nearby lightning bolt can drop you instantly, I’m attaching a famous video of a soccer game where a lightning strike hit the field and its ground current electrocuted several players.

TRIGGER WARNING: No player or person died in this incident. They all recovered to varying extents after medical treatment. However, some of the video may be upsetting or disturbing to the viewer, and it’s age restricted. One player can be seen still twitching immediately after the strike, and they are all obviously in pain and distress while medics are actively trying to revive them.

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Man, they’ve got that fighting, competitive spirit. Even after such an intense percussive explosion, many of them pop right back up and try to keep playing, although they seem to succumb a few moments later.