CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[MsBetsy]

When there are too many variety of reasons to have caused their death, that's most unlikely the answer to the real cause.

Because I have a far simpler and reasonable scenario than all the theories many are putting out here.

Acute oxygen deprivation - they hiked through an high altitude gulch region where oxygen is severely lacking and atmosphere pressure is high causing them to fight for life.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this theory yet but not sure it'd show up in their autopsies.

I don't think there are too many variety of reasons to have caused their deaths.

Just about every theory mentioned here is possible, but ultimately the heat would have been a factor after being exposed for so long. Even if they did suffer from some type of illness (or poisoning) they probably wouldn't have survived much longer in the heat.

Is the altitude really that high where they hiked? Apparently they normally hiked on weekends so I think they would be used to it.

Altitude sickness is more likely in elevations over 8,000 feet. They didn't seem to have a problem hiking the Himalayas, either. IMO

 

[annpats]

And... there are "1,401 mines in Mariposa County, California". That's a lot of mines!!!

Oh my word!!
That's staggering!!

 

[lotus777]

I don't think there are too many variety of reasons to have caused their deaths.

Just about every theory mentioned here is possible, but ultimately the heat would have been a factor after being exposed for so long. Even if they did suffer from some type of illness (or poisoning) they probably wouldn't have survived much longer in the heat.

Is the altitude really that high where they hiked? Apparently they normally hiked on weekends so I think they would be used to it.

Altitude sickness is more likely in elevations over 8,000 feet. They didn't seem to have a problem hiking the Himalayas, either. IMO

I'm with you on the heat factor. She did post on her IG that the altitude started to get to her in the Himalayas, but like you said, they weren't at a high enough elevation on the ill-fated hike for that to be a factor.

 

[EndoraXplorer]

With no updates from LE, MSM seems to be going over the same info on this case. I feel like I'm also spinning my wheels. After reading the Outdoor article on heat stroke (https://www.outsideonline.com/health/wellness/heat-stroke-signs-symptoms/), I went ahead and read the full book by the author, Peter Stark: https://www.amazon.com/Last-Breath-Cautionary-Limits-Endurance/dp/0345441508. I thought it would make me feel less anxious, and instead, it's made me feel MORE anxious.

Here are some recent news stories about algae:
Algae bloom reaches danger level at California reservoir

 

[Runswithdogs]

I have no facts to support this scenario, only a personal gut feeling (and I think a post by @RickshawFan a long while back.) I simply cannot believe the family was able to hike for hours in the day's extreme heat. I believe Philip Kreycik was done in 3-4 hours. Of course, the Sheriff has his evidence and belief which we've only been told. If anyone can explain how two adults, a dog, and a baby could survive an 8 mi hike in 90 degrees and above, please explain. Again.

I think the only way possible exceeds the point that would make this an enjoyable recreational activity & borders on masochistic trail bagging. I’m friends with some of those types, of varying degrees of experience & intelligence (& thus I hold varying degrees of judgement), but all of them tend to leave kids & pets behind when the risks are known from the get go.
I don’t get the impression that the EC/JG were of that type (the little we know), so I tend towards the assumption that there was a great deal of naïveté in their embarking on a day hike here with their baby & dog. As others have queried, I wonder what types of hikes they’d done as a family unit in that area in the preceding weeks. It would at least give me an idea of how experienced they were in terms of mileage & heat.
Personally I think it would take a lot of training to work up to something like this, assuming you’re packing the necessary water supplies + 1yr old, that weekend warrior hiking would not be adequate to prepare oneself for. Assuming they did this, that leaves me with the question…why?? What would make this trail so worth it that you couldn’t just wait until Sept-Oct when the temps cooled.. or even better, the Spring when it is supposed to have spectacular wildflower displays?

That makes a lot of sense to me given the conditions that day and the fact that they were with a furry dog. Notwithstanding others’ apparent experiences with hiking in 100 degree heat with animals.

For 4.5 hours they would’ve needed to carry at least a liter per person per hour, and at least as much, if not more, for the dog, because you have to wet their core.

So that would be about 15 liters they would’ve had to carry, not including water for the baby and baby stuff. That’s equivalent to 30 standard, individual plastic water bottles.

I believe they would know that as looking at Gerrish’s Alltrails accounts he was not a novice.

That seems prohibitive. Much too much to carry.

So yeah, I can see them thinking to do a shorter hike to the river but then somehow getting stuck pretty quickly. But if they made it down 1.5 miles, that would be rather quick going down hill. Maybe not quick enough to succumb to the heat. So maybe they went down and were coming back up the same way they went down?

For 1 person & a dog of this size, I was calculating anywhere between 10-20 L to safely hike this loop. The variance is more if you were going heed the algae cautions/warnings/risks in regards to letting them in the river.
Personally, having seen dogs die from BG algae, any level of detection would cause me to avoid those waterways. Not worth the risk.

@gitana1 I really like how you said back thread about how you hike with an umbrella with your dogs (so cute). I think something like packing a big umbrella, & a buttload of water, would have made a several mile hike here feasible. If frequent breaks were happening, the shade was busted out, and the dog was doused in water - I could see it being ok for a close to home morning stroll/picnic.
Aren’t there nicer places close by to go hiking though that are more forested?

Would they have to drink it though? What would occur if a wet dog rubbed up against you, or licked you.

I think the more sensitive skinned folks can get a nasty contact dermatitis, which could certainly lead to more symptoms of feeling unwell. But contact alone is not going cause sudden death or even aggressive illness, unless you’ve got some severe underlying illness/hypersensitivity.

 

[NSamuelle]

I think the only way possible exceeds the point that would make this an enjoyable recreational activity & borders on masochistic trail bagging. I’m friends with some of those types, of varying degrees of experience & intelligence (& thus I hold varying degrees of judgement), but all of them tend to leave kids & pets behind when the risks are known from the get go.
I don’t get the impression that the EC/JG were of that type (the little we know), so I tend towards the assumption that there was a great deal of naïveté in their embarking on a day hike here with their baby & dog. As others have queried, I wonder what types of hikes they’d done as a family unit in that area in the preceding weeks. It would at least give me an idea of how experienced they were in terms of mileage & heat.
Personally I think it would take a lot of training to work up to something like this, assuming you’re packing the necessary water supplies + 1yr old, that weekend warrior hiking would not be adequate to prepare oneself for. Assuming they did this, that leaves me with the question…why?? What would make this trail so worth it that you couldn’t just wait until Sept-Oct when the temps cooled.. or even better, the Spring when it is supposed to have spectacular wildflower displays?



For 1 person & a dog of this size, I was calculating anywhere between 10-20 L to safely hike this loop. The variance is more if you were going heed the algae cautions/warnings/risks in regards to letting them in the river.
Personally, having seen dogs die from BG algae, any level of detection would cause me to avoid those waterways. Not worth the risk.

@gitana1 I really like how you said back thread about how you hike with an umbrella with your dogs (so cute). I think something like packing a big umbrella, & a buttload of water, would have made a several mile hike here feasible. If frequent breaks were happening, the shade was busted out, and the dog was doused in water - I could see it being ok for a close to home morning stroll/picnic.
Aren’t there nicer places close by to go hiking though that are more forested?



I think the more sensitive skinned folks can get a nasty contact dermatitis, which could certainly lead to more symptoms of feeling unwell. But contact alone is not going cause sudden death or even aggressive illness, unless you’ve got some severe underlying illness/hypersensitivity.

Excellent points. And agreed that mere contact with algae (or insecticide/chemicals without ingestion, as some have posited) would not be sufficient to be fatal. Even fentanyl will not kill you if you merely touch it (but don’t try this at home). If chemicals were so easily absorbed, it would make transdermal drug development much easier. You can’t overdose on fentanyl by touching it

 

[CocoChanel]

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Thanks all, and carry on with the excellent and very enlightening discussion you are engaging in here.

 

[Curious_in_NC]

A lot has been surmised from JG's AllTrails history. Although he and EC were said to hike regularly, only a couple of JG's hikes were recorded at AllTrails after May. As a software engineer, you might think he would still be tracking these hikes somewhere. I found some accounts at Strava and MapMyFitness that looked like theirs but they were either set to private or had no activities logged there. Those apps aren't real popular with most hikers anyway. Is it possible their hikes were being logged somewhere else?

Supposedly JG researched Hites Cove on an app the day before. It is marked "completed" in his AllTrails but it is unclear when that refers to. Are there other apps he might have used for research? It's also possible they hiked but didn't log many of their recent hikes anywhere, just to disconnect a bit from the world.

What I'm trying to understand is if they were acclimatized and familiar with hiking in that area in very hot conditions. And had they gone on recent hikes together with the baby and dog?

Apart from that, the most recent AllTrails hikes for JG looked to be of shorter distances, less than 5 miles generally. There were roughly equal numbers of loops and "out and back" hikes. So there was no real indication of what was suggested earlier, a compulsion by some hikers push on to complete loops.

Family friend said "they hike on weekends"
Entire family reported missing, later found dead in Mariposa County

Source for researching Hites Cove with phone app:
Mariposa Sheriff’s Office Update on the Gerrish – Chung Family | Sierra News Online

I'm also wondering if there was analyzable data from their truck. It might indicate when they actually arrived and started their hike if nothing else.

Said to drive a 2020(?) Ford Raptor. Maybe it was equipped with GPS/wifi hotspot?
https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/models/f150-raptor/
ETA: source for truck model:
Entire family reported missing, later found dead in Mariposa County

 

[Parsnip]

I've voiced before that its possible she went back to the car in a panic, realised she had no key, rushed back to get the key then succumbed on the return journey to the car. JMO MOO

I’ve been trying to put myself in EC’s place and imagine why she would not have had the baby with her, and I think your idea here might help me reconcile that.

This all assumes some degree of rational thinking on the part of both adults:
If on the way back up to the car from the switchbacks, the family had one or two ailing family members (in my scenario, it would be the dog, plus maybe a minor injury for JG), I could see JG encouraging EC to go to the car for some item(s), such as an umbrella for shade (@gitana1 ), blanket or towel to help carry the dog, extra water, etc. If EC were confident enough in JG’s status, she would be amenable to head up the 1.5 miles, packing very light, and leaving water, packs, and other provisions with JG. She dashes up to the car, secures whatever is there, and heads back. This adds about 3.0 miles for EC and an elevation gain of, say, 500 ft. It takes her at least an hour or more to get to the car and back to the rest of her family, who are waiting in the middle of the switchbacks in the sun. I'm not sure whether she would have made it back to them or not and don’t care to speculate from that point on.

For me, if I were experiencing a mild to moderate level of concern, and I felt confident that my partner would be okay to care for himself, our child, and the dog, I could see trying to get some necessary supply for my family, not taking my baby.

Actually, the more I think about it, this is really the only scenario that would reconcile the peculiarities of this scene for me.

MOO

 

[carbuff]

I’ve been trying to put myself in EC’s place and imagine why she would not have had the baby with her, and I think your idea here might help me reconcile that.

This all assumes some degree of rational thinking on the part of both adults:
If on the way back up to the car from the switchbacks, the family had one or two ailing family members (in my scenario, it would be the dog, plus maybe a minor injury for JG), I could see JG encouraging EC to go to the car for some item(s), such as an umbrella for shade (@gitana1 ), blanket or towel to help carry the dog, extra water, etc. If EC were confident enough in JG’s status, she would be amenable to head up the 1.5 miles, packing very light, and leaving water, packs, and other provisions with JG. She dashes up to the car, secures whatever is there, and heads back. This adds about 3.0 miles for EC and an elevation gain of, say, 500 ft. It takes her at least an hour or more to get to the car and back to the rest of her family, who are waiting in the middle of the switchbacks in the sun. I'm not sure whether she would have made it back to them or not and don’t care to speculate from that point on.

For me, if I were experiencing a mild to moderate level of concern, and I felt confident that my partner would be okay to care for himself, our child, and the dog, I could see trying to get some necessary supply for my family, not taking my baby.

Actually, the more I think about it, this is really the only scenario that would reconcile the peculiarities of this scene for me.

MOO

This is the most plausible scenario I've seen yet.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I’ve been trying to put myself in EC’s place and imagine why she would not have had the baby with her, and I think your idea here might help me reconcile that.

This all assumes some degree of rational thinking on the part of both adults:
If on the way back up to the car from the switchbacks, the family had one or two ailing family members (in my scenario, it would be the dog, plus maybe a minor injury for JG), I could see JG encouraging EC to go to the car for some item(s), such as an umbrella for shade (@gitana1 ), blanket or towel to help carry the dog, extra water, etc. If EC were confident enough in JG’s status, she would be amenable to head up the 1.5 miles, packing very light, and leaving water, packs, and other provisions with JG. She dashes up to the car, secures whatever is there, and heads back. This adds about 3.0 miles for and an elevation gain of, say, 500 ft. It takes her at least an hour or more to get to the car and back to the rest of her family, who are waiting in the middle of the switchbacks in the sun. I'm not sure whether she would have made it back to them or not and don’t care to speculate from that point on.

For me, if I were experiencing a mild to moderate level of concern, and I felt confident that my partner would be okay to care for himself, our child, and the dog, I could see trying to get some necessary supply for my family, not taking my baby.

Actually, the more I think about it, this is really the only scenario that would reconcile the peculiarities of this scene for me.

MOO

There should be some footprint evidence along upper Savage-Lundy of this theory or anything similar if it happened. Possibly footprint and/or fingerprint evidence at the vehicle too. I wish we knew what LE knows!

 

[wary]

When there are too many variety of reasons to have caused their death, that's most unlikely the answer to the real cause.

Because I have a far simpler and reasonable scenario than all the theories many are putting out here.

Acute oxygen deprivation - they hiked through an high altitude gulch region where oxygen is severely lacking and atmosphere pressure is high causing them to fight for life.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this theory yet but not sure it'd show up in their autopsies.

MOO

Do we know the altitude of the place where they died?

Do we know the altitude of the place where their car was parked?

Do we know the altitude of their home? That would provide, I would think, a baseline for their acclimatization.

If we know these, I think we can either consider this theory, or totally dismiss it.

DEFINE_ME

(No idea why the name changed from Mayo Clinic to ‘Define Me,’ when I posted it, but the link is still there.)

The Mayo Clinic, as I interpret this link, seems to take 8000 feet as more or less the starting point for altitude sickness risks. I’m sure people, with their variability, can get sick at lower elevations, but I wouldn’t think that young and healthy, (assuming that they were healthy,) people would be at much risk.


All this my opinion only.

 

[RedHaus]

PAW & FOOT PRINTS

I know several others have opined about paw and foot prints and how LE may (hopefully) be leveraging that data for their investigation.

In my mind I've tucked away ideas for how that might play out, as follows:

1. Matching footware and paws to prints of course is obvious... then determining their direction, speed of travel (walk, run, crawl, sit) on which trail and how far is also obvious.

2. And I'd imagine if JG carried a poisoned or heat-stroked Oski any distance, would be evident as the dog prints would stop, or stop and start.

3. The depth of print depressions may tell LE which adult was carrying the babe at any point on their trek...

4. If one or the other adult went up and back down the SL trail (e.g. to find cell service, get supplies from truck) you'd think single prints would be evident.

5. But what if the family had hiked the same or part of the same trails as the same unit a previous weekend? Since the trails are so sparsely used this time of year and especially in that heat, it is possible only their prints are seen. But could some of those prints be from another trek of there's (if it didn't rain between visits). In other words, could they have been there before, and if so, could LE distinguish prints from their last vs. any prior visit. This might presume JG did not log all his hikes.

And if it has any element of truth, what pray tell attracted them to that area?

6. My last idea is the darkest, but I think its safe to postulate here... could there have been footware prints from another person, not in the family, co-mingled with the family's such that it might suggest they were escorted to their location and forced to stay put? And what about another predator animal that may have left paw prints?

This last one makes me start to wonder if they ever intended this hike on that day in those inhospitable conditions? We all still grapple with the "why" and I have to presume LE does too. IMO.

All this (^^^) of course depends on the quality and integrity of the prints found by LE on Tuesday... and is likely a mute point if that storm cell that some believe passed over the area Sunday evening (or any other storm before the family was found) dropped rain and destroyed much if not all the print evidence before 11am Tuesday.

 

[mickey2942]

MOO

Do we know the altitude of the place where they died?

Do we know the altitude of the place where their car was parked?

Do we know the altitude of their home? That would provide, I would think, a baseline for their acclimatization.

If we know these, I think we can either consider this theory, or totally dismiss it.

DEFINE_ME

(No idea why the name changed from Mayo Clinic to ‘Define Me,’ when I posted it, but the link is still there.)

The Mayo Clinic, as I interpret this link, seems to take 8000 feet as more or less the starting point for altitude sickness risks. I’m sure people, with their variability, can get sick at lower elevations, but I wouldn’t think that young and healthy, (assuming that they were healthy,) people would be at much risk.


All this my opinion only.

I am still wondering if they had been diagnosed with Covid-19, and we are seeing some long term residual effects that only come out when the body is stressed, heat, physical exertion.

I am very interested in this, as should anyone who had Covid-19. We may not know how Covid impacts a body, long haul...even in people who seemed to have a light case with no effects.

I am hoping that this information is made public.

 

[RedHaus]

MOO

Do we know the altitude of the place where they died?

Do we know the altitude of the place where their car was parked?

Do we know the altitude of their home? That would provide, I would think, a baseline for their acclimatization.

If we know these, I think we can either consider this theory, or totally dismiss it.

DEFINE_ME

(No idea why the name changed from Mayo Clinic to ‘Define Me,’ when I posted it, but the link is still there.)

The Mayo Clinic, as I interpret this link, seems to take 8000 feet as more or less the starting point for altitude sickness risks. I’m sure people, with their variability, can get sick at lower elevations, but I wouldn’t think that young and healthy, (assuming that they were healthy,) people would be at much risk.

All this my opinion only.

Thanks, @wary. Back in T#1 there was all sorts of trail and family location mapping done. IIRC, we're in the 2,500 to 3,500 foot elevation range with all the locations you ask about. It is common knowledge that this altitude range poses very little risk to people and animals unless their health is severely compromised (eg. heart and lung). For perspective, Denver, CO is at 5,280 ft., the 'mile-high city'. Pikes Peak, CO is 14,115 ft. and Mt. Washington, NH is 6,288 ft.. I've lived at 9,000 ft and 9 ft. This family was at 2,500-3,500 ft., IIRC.

 

[HannahJJJ]

I may have missed someone posting on this.. Oski, the family dog, was tied to Gerrish, right? I tend to think the parents were affected by something (heat, whatever) and the child and dog then didn't have a chance.

 

[wary]

Thanks, @wary. Back in T#1 there was all sorts of trail and family location mapping done. IIRC, we're in the 2,500 to 3,500 foot elevation range with all the locations you ask about. It is common knowledge that this altitude range poses very little risk to people and animals unless their health is severely compromised (eg. heart and lung). For perspective, Denver, CO is at 5,280 ft., the 'mile-high city'. Pikes Peak, CO is 14,115 ft. and Mt. Washington, NH is 6,288 ft.. I've lived at 9,000 ft and 9 ft. This family was at 2,500-3,500 ft., IIRC.

Thank you! That’s the sort of altitude I thought we were talking about.

One added reinforcing point for perspective: commercial airlines are commonly pressurized to 8000 ft.

Aircraft Pressurization Beginner's Guide - AeroSavvy

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

I think the only way possible exceeds the point that would make this an enjoyable recreational activity & borders on masochistic trail bagging. I’m friends with some of those types, of varying degrees of experience & intelligence (& thus I hold varying degrees of judgement), but all of them tend to leave kids & pets behind when the risks are known from the get go.
I don’t get the impression that the EC/JG were of that type (the little we know), so I tend towards the assumption that there was a great deal of naïveté in their embarking on a day hike here with their baby & dog. As others have queried, I wonder what types of hikes they’d done as a family unit in that area in the preceding weeks. It would at least give me an idea of how experienced they were in terms of mileage & heat.
Personally I think it would take a lot of training to work up to something like this, assuming you’re packing the necessary water supplies + 1yr old, that weekend warrior hiking would not be adequate to prepare oneself for. Assuming they did this, that leaves me with the question…why?? What would make this trail so worth it that you couldn’t just wait until Sept-Oct when the temps cooled.. or even better, the Spring when it is supposed to have spectacular wildflower displays?



For 1 person & a dog of this size, I was calculating anywhere between 10-20 L to safely hike this loop. The variance is more if you were going heed the algae cautions/warnings/risks in regards to letting them in the river.
Personally, having seen dogs die from BG algae, any level of detection would cause me to avoid those waterways. Not worth the risk.

@gitana1 I really like how you said back thread about how you hike with an umbrella with your dogs (so cute). I think something like packing a big umbrella, & a buttload of water, would have made a several mile hike here feasible. If frequent breaks were happening, the shade was busted out, and the dog was doused in water - I could see it being ok for a close to home morning stroll/picnic.
Aren’t there nicer places close by to go hiking though that are more forested?



I think the more sensitive skinned folks can get a nasty contact dermatitis, which could certainly lead to more symptoms of feeling unwell. But contact alone is not going cause sudden death or even aggressive illness, unless you’ve got some severe underlying illness/hypersensitivity.

Even if the dog were to accidentally get in and/or drink river water with toxic algae, why even take that risk on that day? They lived in a forested area and had a lovely in ground pool. Maybe the mines were the draw, but they would still be there in the cooler months. The heat plus the poor air quality both had to impact exertion that day in MOO.

 

[SophieRose]

Personally I think it would take a lot of training to work up to something like this, assuming you’re packing the necessary water supplies + 1yr old, that weekend warrior hiking would not be adequate to prepare oneself for. Assuming they did this, that leaves me with the question…why?? What would make this trail so worth it that you couldn’t just wait until Sept-Oct when the temps cooled.. or even better, the Spring when it is supposed to have spectacular wildflower displays?

They just bought a house in July of this year, just a few weeks before this fateful hike, it was right down the road from the trail. I don't think they were living there, not sure if they planned to or was to be used as an Airbnb. Maybe they wanted to check out down by the river to see it's many spring uses - wildflower viewing, kayaking/canoeing, fishing, swimming hole, off roading, even mines for their own use or future visitors.

Aren’t there nicer places close by to go hiking though that are more forested?

Yosemite is not far with higher elevations (may not be good for baby) but because of Covid is on a reservation lottery system on weekends, need to book a week in advance. I think most places were on a heat alert that weekend (and currently), places might not have been 109, but certainly in the high 90s, still hot.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

An earlier poster thought they lived along Carleton Road which is roughly 2900-3000 ft elevation I believe.

The spot where they parked appears to be around 3800 ft elevation and where they were found looks like roughly 2800 ft although we don't know exactly where they were, somewhere mid-switchbacks. The river, assuming they went that far, is around 1900 ft. MOO

MOO

Do we know the altitude of the place where they died?

Do we know the altitude of the place where their car was parked?

Do we know the altitude of their home? That would provide, I would think, a baseline for their acclimatization.

Above is my post from earlier in the thread, based on a topo map someone else posted online, and using yet another poster's assertion of roughly where the Gerrish's home was. MOO but I can find the topo map to post if wanted.