CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[NSamuelle]

In response to a question during Thursday’s sheriff update, about whether toxicology results were back yet, Briese said, “Some are, yes. But we still do not have an exact cause of death yet."
So it sounds like they have some toxicology results, but still no cause of death?
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article254080593.html

Not an expert here, but CO should be back (they excluded it); opioids (e.g., Fentanyl) and benzodiazepines (Ativan, etc.) can be evaluated with chromatography-mass spectrometry; troponin should be back but cardiac tissue damage could be due to numerous factors so they may not be ready to declare COD pending other results; @whirrledpeas do you have any insights? @Curious_in_NC?

 

[lotus777]

MOO

We may live in very different parts of the world. Where I live in Sonoma County, it’s not only survivable to be out all day long in the sun when temps are 95+F, it’s routine! The ranchers around here are out with their working dogs for hours on end with no shade. Like, all the time. Our weather this summer has been mid to high 90’s for a good chunk of the summer, with the occasional 100 or 101 thrown in. Life, especially ranch life, goes on.

My son’s been having grueling high school football practices this past month starting at 3:30 in the afternoon when the temperatures are sometimes still 97F or 98F. The coaches don’t cancel them.

Here in California, we have herds of cattle and dairy cows (who also rely on respiration to cool, like dogs) that literally bake out in the open with no shade in the Central Valley and inland coastal valleys when temperatures hover around 110F.

Maybe I’m just used to a different way of life.

MOO

I believe body temp at 104 is the danger zone. So the occasional 100 or 101 just might not be hot enough for those acclimated to it to be in the danger zone. I think some are still underestimating the impact of hiking uphill in direct sun in high temps, with heat radiating off the terrain, carrying a baby and/or dog. Heat plus exertion plus added weight.

Cows don't have fur like dogs and have more surface area to dissipate heat...

 

[woods]

Meningitis, neuroleptic malignant syndrome, toxic ingestion, and other conditions may mimic heat stroke, so the diagnosis must carefully consider clinical history.
VisualDx Cookie Check

 

[jonjon747]

It’s not like it’s the Himalayas. There’s no reduced oxygen there.

That's not what I said about the causes of deaths.
They were down by the stream and went around coming back over uphill.
This is an evident case of change in altitude causing them all kinds of breathing problems and were fighting with deprivation of oxygen as they were heading up.
We got to also consider the atmospheric pressure on them as they climbed up.
Some feel the altitude pressure quicker than others. It doesn't matter how high the altitude is, it's all about the location and the route they've taken coming up from down near the stream.
Remember this is with intense heat and lot of baggages, coming out of the "gulch" region.
There were also no trees from forest fire several years ago,
has anyone measured the oxygen level where they hiked and atmospheric pressure level?
That's the first thing I'd do.

 

[UltraViolet4545]

So... it’s not uncommon for people to die from exposure to the elements. Does anyone know what sorts of things could be preventing that determination? MOO just feels like the police are suspicious about something.

 

[gitana1]

If by "recent" you mean the hike JG did on April 4, 2020, please take a closer look. The 13 mile route is marked "completed" but his actual recorded hike there is 3.0 miles (you have to look under reviews and look up his associated activity). So it seems doubtful he did the whole route. Likewise there is a 17 mile hike recorded under JG's activities (March 13, 2021) but I suspect he just forgot to turn off the app. From the mile splits it looks more like 3 miles were at hiking pace and 14 miles were in a vehicle.

Ah! Thanks for the clarification. Also, good attention to detail!!

 

[gitana1]

Thank you for this great info, and for the local perspective. So valuable!

None of these environmental toxin hypothesis add up for me. I am trying to understand why an intelligent couple would take their infant out in this extreme heat for such an extended period of hike. Doesn't add up.
We are missing a critical piece of back story, which I'm sure will emerge soon.

Amateur opinion and speculation

I’m with you.

 

[gitana1]

MOO

We may live in very different parts of the world. Where I live in Sonoma County, it’s not only survivable to be out all day long in the sun when temps are 95+F, it’s routine! The ranchers around here are out with their working dogs for hours on end with no shade. Like, all the time. Our weather this summer has been mid to high 90’s for a good chunk of the summer, with the occasional 100 or 101 thrown in. Life, especially ranch life, goes on.

My son’s been having grueling high school football practices this past month starting at 3:30 in the afternoon when the temperatures are sometimes still 97F or 98F. The coaches don’t cancel them.

Here in California, we have herds of cattle and dairy cows (who also rely on respiration to cool, like dogs) that literally bake out in the open with no shade in the Central Valley and inland coastal valleys when temperatures hover around 110F.

Maybe I’m just used to a different way of life.

MOO

Yes and kids die each year from coaches making them workout in the heat. And that’s WITH water.

Nebraska football player dies after heat-related medical emergency at practice

And aside from forced sports training, (which even so includes tons of water and times to rest, hiking uphill in the heat of summer with no shade) is different from standing still in the heat or even working a ranch. Both the ranchers and the dogs get plenty of water breaks, rest breaks and shade breaks.

I’ve also seen shade provided to dairy cattle and I’ve seen beef cattle seeking out trees for shade when it gets That hot. All in Southern California desert climates (Hemet/Ramona, etc.).

 

[gitana1]

That's not what I said about the causes of deaths.
They were down by the stream and went around coming back over uphill.
This is an evident case of change in altitude causing them all kinds of breathing problems and were fighting with deprivation of oxygen as they were heading up.
We got to also consider the atmospheric pressure on them as they climbed up.
Some feel the altitude pressure quicker than others. It doesn't matter how high the altitude is, it's all about the location and the route they've taken coming up from down near the stream.
Remember this is with intense heat and lot of baggages, coming out of the "gulch" region.
There were also no trees from forest fire several years ago,
has anyone measured the oxygen level where they hiked and atmospheric pressure level?
That's the first thing I'd do.

It’s just really not that high. Not high enough for there to be any real change in oxygen or in atmospheric pressure, IMO.

 

[wary]

So... it’s not uncommon for people to die from exposure to the elements. Does anyone know what sorts of things could be preventing that determination? MOO just feels like the police are suspicious about something.

MOO

My best guess is that LE can’t understand why anyone would take a baby on this sort of hike, and that makes them wonder what they might be missing.

MOO

 

[jonjon747]

I agree, but was responding to a comment that referenced volcanic gases as a potential poisoning source.

If it were some type poisonous gas that caused their deaths,
it would've been apparently shown at the site of death.
in such case, they all would've died instantly lying dead, not in a sitting position or a 20m apart from others.

Just by deriving from the situation of how they were found,
it looks more like a breathing related issue.
The man started running out of breath fast had to sit for a little rest but very soon passed out.
Same goes for the dog and the baby.
The woman being younger and more fit, panicked, knowing if she falls sleep too there, it's game over, she tried to get away from there as far as possible, started running for life.
I think if she walked down instead of up, might've survived.
This assumption makes the most sense out of all, knowing the positions of their bodies.

 

[wary]

Yes and kids die each year from coaches making them workout in the heat. And that’s WITH water.

Nebraska football player dies after heat-related medical emergency at practice

And aside from forced sports training, (which even so includes tons of water and times to rest, hiking uphill in the heat of summer with no shade) is different from standing still in the heat or even working a ranch. Both the ranchers and the dogs get plenty of water breaks, rest breaks and shade breaks.

I’ve also seen shade provided to dairy cattle and I’ve seen beef cattle seeking out trees for shade when it gets That hot. All in Southern California desert climates (Hemet/Ramona, etc.).

Also, I would think that a ranch worker might become more acclimated to the heat than someone who works in air conditioning five days a week. MOO

I don’t know what the working conditions of the Gerrishes were.

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/mining/userfiles/works/pdfs/2017-124.pdf

I’m not drawing any specific conclusions from the cdc link above, but I found it interesting, specially the case study at the bottom of the page.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I believe body temp at 104 is the danger zone. So the occasional 100 or 101 just might not be hot enough for those acclimated to it to be in the danger zone. I think some are still underestimating the impact of hiking uphill in direct sun in high temps, with heat radiating off the terrain, carrying a baby and/or dog. Heat plus exertion plus added weight.

Cows don't have fur like dogs and have more surface area to dissipate heat...

The length of time it is super hot is a big factor -- take two different days where it reaches, say, 104* at a given location. The day where it gets hot fast and is in the 100-104 range for many hours is going to feel very different from a day that heats up more gradually, hitting 104* just briefly before the sun goes down.

I've also read (generically, not related to this case or heat deaths at all) that people don't adjust as easily to heat when it stays above 80* at night. So they might have started that day with already compromised metabolism due to not cooling off completely at night (do we know if they have AC at home? Foothills locations which aren't normally as hot as this summer was, might not have it -- I certainly don't though I'm at much higher elevation than them and lower humidity. And after this summer I probably will end up with a unit).

It’s just really not that high. Not high enough for there to be any real change in oxygen or in atmospheric pressure, IMO.

I think the key, in addition to this just not being very high, is that they parked at less than 1000 feet higher than their home, and most of the hike would actually have been at elevation the same or lower than their home. So they should have had an oxygen boost (though very slight) from that.

The steepness of the trail and their level of exertion would certainly affect the speed at which they overheat, need water, etc. But unless they were sprinting I don't see how oxygen levels would even come into play here. MOO

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Oh also meant to add, I don't know about conditions on cattle feeding operations and home ranches, but cattle out on the range absolutely seek shade and water, and hang out in and near the creeks much of the time. (This is why they do so much damage to public lands -- because they're in the creeks which are fragile in various ways relative to 1000-pound animals. But that's a different soapbox...) MOO, pun entirely intended...

 

[kittythehare]

MOO

Being new to these threads, I took a lot of the numbers about temperature and where they would be on the trail that were mentioned in various places at face value. I just assumed they were accurate.

But since I have absolutely no life, I found time to run through all that data. And if they did a straight hike as many believe, I don’t see how any of them would have encountered temperatures over 100 degrees on that trail, let alone 106 or 109.

To judge times on the trail, I used the standard Naismith’s Rule for hikers, hill walkers, etc., which is 1hr for every 3mi, plus an additional hour for every 2000ft of climb.

The route from the trailhead on Hite Cove Road begins at 3900ft elevation and drops down to the river at Nutmeg Gulch (1800ft) covering 2.5 miles. (Source: https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5344035.pdf )

The level route on South Fork Trail from Nutmeg Gulch along the river to the base of Savage-Lundy Trail is 3.1 miles. (Source: Hiking on the Savage Lundy Trail | Sierra News Online )

The hike from the signpost on the South Fork trail up Savage-Lundy Trail is 3.0 miles and an ascent of approx. 2100ft. (Source: https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5344038.pdf )

The relevant temperatures on 8/15/21 at the Jerseydale weather station (elev. 3900ft) were:
8am: 82F
9am: 84F
10am: 89F
11am: 91F
Noon: 94F
1pm: 95F
Source - Jerseydale California

The relevant temperatures that day at the El Portal weather station (elev. 2050ft) were:

8am: 85F
9am: 92F
10am: 99F
11am: 103F
Noon: 107F
Source - El Portal California

They’re seen approaching the trailhead at 7:45 that morning. If they start the hike at 8am, it would be 82F where they are at the top. They would be down at Nutmeg Gulch on the river by 8:50am before the temperature got to be 92F. Then they would cover the level 3.1 mile trail along the river in an hour. But I’ll be conservative and add in 10 minutes for water breaks and maybe a diaper change.

So by 10am, and they would conservatively be at the base of Savage-Lundy Trail, ready to head up back to the truck. The temperature would be 99F.

Up to that point, they have only hiked for 2 hours, with breaks, on downhill or level terrain. The temperature over that time has spanned from 82F to 99F. And they’ve had immediate access to the river if anyone wanted to quickly dunk in or wet their clothes.

So far, that’s a mild to moderate hike on a hot California day with a cool river nearby.

According to Naismith’s Rule, it should take them 2 hours to hike up the 3 miles of switchbacks (3 miles plus 2000ft ascent). But it’s hot and sunny, so I’ll be extra conservative again and tack on an extra hour just for very frequent stops to rest and hydrate and snack. That is a generous 3 hours to hike 3 miles.

They would be halfway up, at elevation 2900, at 11:30am. The temperature at the top of the trail (3900ft) would be 92-93F at 11:30. The temperature at the bottom where the started the climb would be 105F at 11:30. The temperature in the middle would again be around 99F. And that’s presuming a very leisurely stroll of 1 hour of hiking intermixed with an additional 30 minutes of nothing but stopping, resting and hydrating along the switchbacks.

The last 1.5 miles would take another conservative 1.5 hours with stopping and hydrating along the way, arriving at the top by 1pm.

The temperature at the top at 1pm was only 95F. So during the last 1.5 miles of hiking to the very top, they would have been experiencing cooling temperatures as they went.

What am I missing? How did we all think they would have been on the trail down below during the times it was over 100F?

MOO

Thank you for doing all that work! I would never have managed it. Kudos!

 

[gitana1]

Also, I would think that a ranch worker might become more acclimated to the heat than someone who works in air conditioning five days a week. MOO

I don’t know what the working conditions of the Gerrishes were.

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/mining/userfiles/works/pdfs/2017-124.pdf

I’m not drawing any specific conclusions from the cdc link above, but I found it interesting, specially the case study at the bottom of the page.

Absolutely. Agree. And good link on acclimatization.

Like I said, I’m acclimatized to hiking in the heat I will add that I’m fairly fit. I would not have withstood their hike.

 

[gitana1]

Oh also meant to add, I don't know about conditions on cattle feeding operations and home ranches, but cattle out on the range absolutely seek shade and water, and hang out in and near the creeks much of the time. (This is why they do so much damage to public lands -- because they're in the creeks which are fragile in various ways relative to 1000-pound animals. But that's a different soapbox...) MOO, pun entirely intended...

Yup. All true.

 

[willyengland]

I am a hobby runner and one day I did a tempo run at around 90° for about an hour in the sun. Immediately after that I measured my temperature. It was 103°.
I am trained, came from a cool room and was well hydrated.
If one thinks of an untrained person walking for more than an hour uphill at > 100°, perhaps not perfectly hydrated ...

 

[MsBetsy]

If it were some type poisonous gas that caused their deaths,
it would've been apparently shown at the site of death.
in such case, they all would've died instantly lying dead, not in a sitting position or a 20m apart from others.

Just by deriving from the situation of how they were found,
it looks more like a breathing related issue.
The man started running out of breath fast had to sit for a little rest but very soon passed out.
Same goes for the dog and the baby.
The woman being younger and more fit, panicked, knowing if she falls sleep too there, it's game over, she tried to get away from there as far as possible, started running for life.
I think if she walked down instead of up, might've survived.
This assumption makes the most sense out of all, knowing the positions of their bodies.

People generally don't die from running out of breath. They could have stopped, rested and then continued on if they felt short of breath. Something prevented them from doing that and I don't think it was the altitude. They were on the most strenuous part of the hike with no shade and the temperature was rising. If they were exhausted and out of breath, it was likely because of the extreme heat. Imo

 

[jonjon747]

People generally don't die from running out of breath. They could have stopped, rested and then continued on if they felt short of breath. Something prevented them from doing that and I don't think it was the altitude. They were on the most strenuous part of the hike with no shade and the temperature was rising. If they were exhausted and out of breath, it was likely because of the extreme heat. Imo

Like I said before there's a little problem with the heat related theory.
Reaction to heat exhaustion vary by person and here we got a baby and a dog.
If the dog or baby succumbed to the heat first, the man wouldn't just die in a sitting position.
And if the man died first, the woman would've taken the baby(dog could just follow) and his phone, and run for help.

That's what investigators think too, she looked to be heading in the right direction, toward their vehicle.
That's why I don't think the heat caused her death.

and at the scene, we see no sign of any struggle or panic except maybe the woman was found more in front of the trail.

It looks more as if they suffocated in their sleep rather than hikers dying in heat related causes.
The woman seems to be the last survivor but she just couldn't make it to their vehicle.

Why?

She couldn't breath climbing up.

p/s and besides the veteran officer there said he hasn't seen anything like this in his 15 years? of duty or something like that. Has he seen casualties from heat related causes before, I bet he did.