CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

[sfinkz]

What's toxic algae and could it really have killed an entire California family hiking near
According to Mariposa County Sheriff’s Office spokesperson Kristie Mitchell, results from several toxicology reports — including a test of the water found in the family’s CamelBak — are still pending, and a timeframe for those becoming public is still not known. After learning that anatoxin cannot be filtered out of water, SFGATE asked Mitchell whether a filter was discovered in the family’s belongings. The answer was no.

Why toxic algae's a prime suspect in Calif. hiking family's death

Alright, some new news. And answers the very first question I had. No filter. Water limited to what they could carry. Yet the quoted algae expert says “they probably weren’t foolish enough to drink from the river” (and conforms to my theory I’m not backing away from; an irrational avoidance of the life-giving properties of the South Fork doomed this family).

Considering the outcome, really professor?

 

[Blackkettle]

And here’s an additional exercise in meteorological forensics…

At frame #61, from the Visible Satellite GIF loop (previously posted here), taken at 6PM local time when the sun was only 21 degrees above the western horizon, a very large and cigar shaped shadow extends from a WNW to ESE angle on the image (see first image below). (For sun angle calculations see here: NOAA Solar Position Calculator )

As it’s late in the afternoon, a time when shadows fall towards the east, and the shadow’s western edge is close to the Gerrish-Chung location, it's clear that the object casting this shadow - in this case a cloud formation - is evidently directly above them at the moment:

Overlaying the image into Google Earth (by aligning the Mariposa County and YNP borders & roads) and taking a measurement of the shadow’s length, it appears to be about 12.2 miles long or 64,420 feet.

This begs the question “How high does an object have to be, at that location, that date, and that KNOWN time of day to cast a shadow that is 12.2 miles long?

Luckily there’s an ONLINE CALCULATOR that can spit out a quick result: Online calculator: Shadow length

Rounding off the Gerrish-Chung location to +37 45’ 5” N by -119 49’ 46” with a UTC offset of -7 hours (the current Daylight Time Differential), the calculator indicates that in order to cast a shadow at that location on 8/15/21 at 1800 hours the object would have to be…

…24,821 feet high.

But that’s just if it were casting its shadow on THE GROUND of course. In frame #61 it most likely casting its shadow on other clouds which are also aloft. Simple geometry dictates that the height to cast a shadow that long on another object that’s not at ground height would have to be even higher.

Then add in the fact that the river near the Gerrish-Chung location was already about 1,900 feet in elevation (at the river), and the cloud base may have been many hundreds or a few thousand feet above the ground level itself… and it becomes evident that whatever was casting that shadow it could have easily been topping 30,000 feet at the time. Which is consistent with the noticeable imprint this cell made on the water vapor satellite returns (see “02-Satellite-Water-Vapor.gif” from my previous post).

Naturally, if my assumption that the “cigar shaped shadow” isn't really a shadow at all but just some “dark trough” in the clouds, then it of course renders this post invalid altogether... but if one scrutinizes the frames before and after frame 61, it seems evident that the “shadow” in question moves and morphs in a way that’s completely consistent with the low sun angle of the hour as well as the depth of pixel darkness exhibited by the what is quite obviously a shadow emanating from cell 2’s sudden build up to the ENE.

Cumulonimbus towers are often electrically charged monsters by time they reach that height. They may have perished by heatstroke of course earlier in the day. But if not… I’d hate to be the tallest thing trudging up that completely barren slope when this thing was overhead.

 

[sfinkz]

Cartophiles Unite! I’ll admit, nothing cooler than dialing up a map and going anywhere in the world for a satellite view in 30 seconds. Never thought I’d give up newsprint but I gotta have a paper topo map for the backcountry. And gps included with my pocket camera/phone thingie has saved me some grief while lost and in reception. For road navigation I don’t use it, I’m landmark-based.

A continual work-in-progress, I remember the early days when first installed on vehicles, folks were literally driving into the lake. And this sign, finally installed several years ago, on the ridge 10 miles north of the Devils Gulch, discouraged traffic on the original stagecoach road, in disrepair for a century, because gps listed it as a shortcut to the Mariposa highway. Only after it was finally scrubbed from gps a handful of years ago did the towing companies lose lucrative business.

Not a life/death miscalculation, however, unlike a couple of recent tragedies of families stranded in the winter on Oregon logging roads, clearly marked impassable on road maps.

 

[Newsjunkiejen]

MOD NOTE

Websleuths welcomes new members!
If you have info to share, here are the rules for posting it:

1. Info posted as fact MUST include the link to the MSM source of that info.
2. Info you know to be true because you are close the case or circumstances does not need a link ONLY IF you have been approved as a Verified Insider.
3. Opinion is welcome IF you state that it is IMO, MOO, etc., and that opinion is based in facts as published in the case.

Posts that fail to comply with the requirements will be removed. That has happened to several posts this morning, in addition to those that quoted the removed posts. It is possible that some post may be reinstated IF Verified Insider status is approved. Please follow the highlighted link to begin the process.

THANK YOU for your continuing efforts to post respectfully and responsibly according to the Websleuths Terms of Service we all agreed to when we joined.

Faithfully,
CocoChanel
Administrator/Moderator

Ahhh thanks for clarifying, I was wondering what I did wrong but I think it's because I quoted some posts that were removed, so subsequently my posts were removed.

I hope they get reinstated if the contributor can become a Verified Insider

 

[armchairagatha]

Alright, some new news. And answers the very first question I had. No filter. Water limited to what they could carry. Yet the quoted algae expert says “they probably weren’t foolish enough to drink from the river” (and conforms to my theory I’m not backing away from; an irrational avoidance of the life-giving properties of the South Fork doomed this family).

Considering the outcome, really professor?

The quoted article says 100s of elephants died in Botswana last year due to toxic algae blooms. Though it also goes on to say no human deaths have ever been reported. I guess if elephants can die of it, humans can technically die also. But the Occam's razor for me in this case is still heat stroke. MOO
Why toxic algae's a prime suspect in Calif. hiking family's death

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Alright, some new news. And answers the very first question I had. No filter. Water limited to what they could carry. Yet the quoted algae expert says “they probably weren’t foolish enough to drink from the river” (and conforms to my theory I’m not backing away from; an irrational avoidance of the life-giving properties of the South Fork doomed this family).

Considering the outcome, really professor?

Agree. As the article says "And yet, there are no reported human deaths from toxic algae." So this would be a first, two adults. How likely is that? As I said before, the sheriff says they had only "a small amount" of water left, which is consistent with trying to get by with only the water they carried. I think it unlikely they drank from the river but didn't fill the camelback before starting up that climb. Another clue is the dog was found with them. If the dog was allowed to drink it's fill from the river, dogs not being picky about algae, I would expect the dog would ingest a lot more algae than the humans, and thus be affected much sooner. So I discount the algae theory, based on these probabilities. Only my opinion, but there you have my reasoning. On the other hand, it was hot, steep, and had no shade, no question about it. In my opinion, that's by far the highest probability.

 

[sfinkz]

It was getting a little too one-sided here with the heat stroke idea, thanks @Blackkettle for shifting gears and, as we await an explanation, reconsidering what hasn’t been ruled out, with your detailed analysis I’m sure to find educational once I have a better connection.

Also something touched upon and recently-queried about is the real estate holdings. Not sure it has been given the proper context. It is quite remarkable the achievements and transitions of this family in the timeframe of what most regard as a lousy, lost pandemic year-and-a-half.

Parenthood, 180 deg lifestyle change from town to country, change of jobs and adding multiple properties to a growing real estate portfolio. That could be a half century of hard work, all during the pandemic. Amazing.

From the very first reports, a realtor and local power-broker and self-identified “friend” casually mentioned the family fell in love with the area and purchased “several properties”. And it was the on-the-ball sheriff who quickly located their vehicle after the 11 pm MPR because he was aware of their most recent purchase, adjacent to the TH.

It just may be that they were The Talk of the Town. On a purely transactional level, they would have come into contact with dozens of lenders/sellers, contractors, county officials, tenants, employees…

And quite naturally, those first reports also included complimentary and glowing comments from members of the community. And certainly a smiling baby, friendly dog, attractive woman and charming British accent can be disarming.

But beneath that there is a festering crisis, accelerated by the pandemic, of housing affordability and living wage opportunities in mountain and resort communities.

Marginalized to the fringes, some harbor resentment at the WFH moneyed city folk pioneers showing up in their fancy trucks and survival rigs buying houses for half a million and renting them for $400/night, about what could be expected to take home in a week if the normally-reliable tourist economy hadn’t shut down allowing more time to listen closer to the buzz of some of the friends grown up with and all they can talk about is that growop or was it methlab?…

 

[sfinkz]

Agree. As the article says "And yet, there are no reported human deaths from toxic algae." So this would be a first, two adults. How likely is that? As I said before, the sheriff says they had only "a small amount" of water left, which is consistent with trying to get by with only the water they carried. I think it unlikely they drank from the river but didn't fill the camelback before starting up that climb. Another clue is the dog was found with them. If the dog was allowed to drink it's fill from the river, dogs not being picky about algae, I would expect the dog would ingest a lot more algae than the humans, and thus be affected much sooner. So I discount the algae theory, based on these probabilities. Only my opinion, but there you have my reasoning. On the other hand, it was hot, steep, and had no shade, no question about it. In my opinion, that's by far the highest probability.

Yes, my version of our theory, however, more perfectly aligns with them having some form of treatment, apparently they did not.

Still taking LE’s initial word of “well-prepared” for grueling 8.5-mile loop hike. That 20#+ water weight may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. It gives me more doubt, however, to question ‘well-prepared’ and a growing belief that perhaps they did not intend to do the loop.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

@sfinkz that's a really good effort at setting the stage. as we all know, visiting a place and living in one is very different. I thought the Sheriff was brilliant, finding them so soon. In all the missing persons cases I've read about or listened to, it's almost impossible to get fast action. In this case it was an entire family, who could have gone to visit friends or had an emergency trip back to SF and forgot to tell a new nanny. Whoever got the Sheriff involved would have had to beat a loud drum, imo.

We all forget, those of us who live with crime stories 24/7, how things make sense to us that don't make sense to people who don't care for "dead people" stories, which is what my husband calls them. Or worse, people living in the story.

 

[Catmommy]

"Dead people stories". Please thank your husband, MrsEmmaPeel, I will most likely use that.

 

[Pumphouse363]

@Pumphouse363 There is a Mariposa Hiking Trails group member on FB who was quoted, I believe (it's way back in the thread) as saying they do not visit, hike, or work on the Savage Lundy trail in the summer. You may want to look for that group if you're on FB.

Thank you I have looked and notice there is very little about anyone hiking on the SL or even any mention of it until recent events. The SL trail is totally separate from the HC trail and the supposition is that they set off towards HC trail but didn’t make it that far, went down and followed the South Fork of the Merced River until they reached the base of the SL trail and ventured upwards. There is no record online of anyone doing that trip. Just those who hike down the trail and back up again. To accept the premise that this young couple attempted this (in incredibly high temperatures) with their beloved child and dog is inconceivable. MOO This is not intended to apportion blame to Jon or Ellen, nor to doubt there integrity. Despite all the detailed hypothetical analyses on this site I cannot give credence to any of them, mainly because all of the explanations ostensibly infer that Jon and Ellen were inevitably negligent. This is something I can never accept. I have actually found many of the posts very interesting and I have tried to accept the possibilities. They may indeed have died from lightning strikes or heat exposure but I think there is a more sinister explanation. Thank you for reading and I apologise if my previous posts have violated the rules of this site. All opinions are my own and I cannot verify my expertise in this case for personal reasons.

 

[Recidivist]

People make mistakes. It doesn't necessarily equate to negligence. But if something sinister is amiss, I do hope it is dealt with appropriately.

Pumphouse, I am sorry for your loss, and hope all those who loved them will someday get the answers and find peace.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Yes, my version of our theory, however, more perfectly aligns with them having some form of treatment, apparently they did not.

Still taking LE’s initial word of “well-prepared” for grueling 8.5-mile loop hike. That 20#+ water weight may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. It gives me more doubt, however, to question ‘well-prepared’ and a growing belief that perhaps they did not intend to do the loop.

I'm a little doubtful about that "well prepared" comment- might mean they brought water and weren't wearing flip flops. I figure the sheriffs are well-qualified when it comes to analyzing footprints, so I expect that information was accurate, and they went down the Hites Cove Trail. Since it is quite some distance along the river from the Hites Cove Trail to the Savage Lundy trail, I hadn't considered that they didn't intend to do the loop. I prefer loops, and 8.5 miles and 2000' of elevation gain is a nice workout for a regular hiker on a typical hike. The catches with this hike being that the first 5.5 miles is easy, and all the effort comes in the last 3 miles. And the heat and exposure.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

@sfinkz that's a really good effort at setting the stage. as we all know, visiting a place and living in one is very different. I thought the Sheriff was brilliant, finding them so soon. In all the missing persons cases I've read about or listened to, it's almost impossible to get fast action. In this case it was an entire family, who could have gone to visit friends or had an emergency trip back to SF and forgot to tell a new nanny. Whoever got the Sheriff involved would have had to beat a loud drum, imo.

We all forget, those of us who live with crime stories 24/7, how things make sense to us that don't make sense to people who don't care for "dead people" stories, which is what my husband calls them. Or worse, people living in the story.

They don't say who it was that called the sheriff, but my money is on the nanny. She would know the family's routine, probably liked them a lot (everyone seemed to), and loved the baby. She would be more likely to know about the properties they had bought than the sheriff, perhaps she suggested it, or he asked her where she thought they might have gone. Definitely kudos to the officer who jumped right on it and found their truck right away. Pure speculation, MOO.

 

[anya]

Quote: " I am baffled why in the Gerrish case, LE is reluctant to suggest that as the COD when the conditions were similar."

The same. I have been so frustrated by the " mysterious - what on earth could it have been- non- mystery." I know the motive of the media, click bait, but the TRUE mystery is why LE are behaving as if this family went missing in Area 51. A family goes hiking in 109F heat wearing a baby in a back and the 8 year old double- furred pet dog in a shadeless hellscape on a steep incline.
But what on earth could go wrong? LE and the media could have possibly prevented other heat deaths had they reported this accurately and honestly. IMO, had this been a poor, older family it would have been reported much differently. No one should disrespect this family because they made a fatal error in judgement, we all have at times in our life, we were just lucky misjudgements weren't fatal. If it were me I would really want what happened to me to be shown as a lesson for others.
I have MS, so I do not hike, but comparing maps, apps that have descriptions of trails, I can honestly say that Alltrail is lacking, to day the least. I do hope JG used other maps and websites.
@gitana1- Beautiful dog. Happy trails to the both of you.

Thank you.
i'm bewildered as well.
I grew up hiking and skiing (namely telemarking) as my parents were really into that. Loved it and still do. My sister and husband are also backcountry skiers (+ instructors) and hikers. None of us, nor anyone we know in our circles take AllTrails seriously.

In fact, it's crap tbh and basically a social media platform for "trail discovery" if you will, TBH and IMHO.

My point? I don't think zoning into this couple's Alltrails is going to fetch much of anything since they also seemed into doing somewhat off-the-beaten trail/hardcore hikes.

I think the beacons/GPS on their phone or watch will provide better details.

 

[SophieRose]

2 Causes of Death Ruled Out as Investigation into Calif. Family's Mysterious Deaths Continues

John Gerrish, along with his wife, Ellen Chung, their 1-year-old daughter, Miju, and their family dog, Oski, were found dead along a hiking trail in a remote area of California's Sierra National Forest on Aug. 17, a day after they were reported missing by their nanny.

 

[sfinkz]

They don't say who it was that called the sheriff, but my money is on the nanny. She would know the family's routine, probably liked them a lot (everyone seemed to), and loved the baby. She would be more likely to know about the properties they had bought than the sheriff, perhaps she suggested it, or he asked her where she thought they might have gone. Definitely kudos to the officer who jumped right on it and found their truck right away. Pure speculation, MOO.

That was my original thought but @MrsEmmaPeel has me convinced the Lead Sheriff was first-on-the-scene late that first full day/night because a mover-and-shaker had his ear.

 

[SophieRose]

They don't say who it was that called the sheriff, but my money is on the nanny. She would know the family's routine, probably liked them a lot (everyone seemed to), and loved the baby. She would be more likely to know about the properties they had bought than the sheriff, perhaps she suggested it, or he asked her where she thought they might have gone. Definitely kudos to the officer who jumped right on it and found their truck right away. Pure speculation, MOO.

Was it that hard for LE?

'Not one clue': The mystery is only deepening around the family found dead on a Sierra trail

When the missing persons report for Ellen Chung and her husband, Jonathan Gerrish, came in at 11 p.m. Monday, a curious sheriff’s deputy had a hunch. The couple had just purchased a property near the trailhead for Hites Cove Trail 20 miles north of town, and they loved to explore the outdoors with their 1-year-old daughter, Miju, and dog Oski.
He drove down the single-lane red dirt Hites Cove Road until the closed U.S. Forest Service gate appeared. He was right — the couple’s truck was parked at the popular but remote trailhead.
It was 2 a.m.

 

[sfinkz]

Was it that hard?

'Not one clue': The mystery is only deepening around the family found dead on a Sierra trail

When the missing persons report for Ellen Chung and her husband, Jonathan Gerrish, came in at 11 p.m. Monday, a curious sheriff’s deputy had a hunch. The couple had just purchased a property near the trailhead for Hites Cove Trail 20 miles north of town, and they loved to explore the outdoors with their 1-year-old daughter, Miju, and dog Oski.
He drove down the single-lane red dirt Hites Cove Road until the closed U.S. Forest Service gate appeared. He was right — the couple’s truck was parked at the popular but remote trailhead.
It was 2 a.m.

Oh, OK a deputy but I think he was clued in by the Sheriff. Yes I know it was first reported four weeks and 4000-some posts ago but I do have a difficult time linking. It has mostly been mistakenly (?) discussed here that there origin was the main residence 20 minute car hike away. You reaffirmed for my mind that not to be the case, which makes more logistical sense.

 

[willyengland]

To accept the premise that this young couple attempted this (in incredibly high temperatures) with their beloved child and dog is inconceivable.

Since you know them, what do you make of this?