CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #6

[rahod1]

I have wondered this too @NSamuelle, but was not sure how to express it without sounding crass. So thank you for opening this door so gently. I have considered, like you, that JG/EC may have been driven to hike their last 2 miles up SLT in a desperate attempt to get back to the truck and home to 'make all this right again - get Miju and Oski back to safety.' Their motivation, perhaps understandably, could have been to avoid being discovered with two critically ailing dependents by LE or SARS. IMO, they may have thought if they retreated to the river to get / stay cool and wait for rescue or much cooler temperatures overnight, then they might face allegations as you describe. And that alone might have scared them into their demise. It might not have required a nefarious character to scare them to death.

All IMO.

BBM...
Boy, William of Ockham might have something to say about this!

 

[IceIce9]

That day, as they headed out, they must have believed they had enough water for everyone, though. Only hours later would they have realized their mistake.
It's a cognitive bias to think, "We would have known to bring much more water. They remind me of us. How could they have only brought 2.5 L for that loop ..."
But I think they just misjudged it. They truly didn't know what they'd be facing that day.

They lived there, they would have known that cool mornings quickly heat up. And the minimal amount of water they brought wasn’t enough for humans and dog even on a short hike.

Such a puzzle.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

I think you know by now, @neesaki, that I tend to agree with you.

To that point, did you or anyone else notice in Sheriff Briese's 9/30/2021 presser on this case, no manner of death was announced? Only cause of death. And that includes the Q&A session if my notes are accurate (it was hard to hear questions).

If this is true, does that mean LE is still undecided on manner of death? They had prevously announced suicide was ruled out. So that leaves accident, homicide and natural manners of death. With heat stroke as cause of death, you'd think that finding would be accompanied by 'accident' as manner of death. So then why didn't the Sheriff say that if it was settled? I just wonder if manner of death is in fact still undetermined? If so, it could be LE is as confused as we are on this.

Did anyone read or hear an announcement by the Sheriff on manner of death for this case?

No, I haven’t heard about the manner of death for any of the family.

I linked a previous story about a young football player who died of heatstroke at school, and it was ruled an accident due to environmental factors. (ETA: bbm):

“A 13-year-old Silver Spring youth who collapsed last month during a football practice at St. John's College High School died as a result of heat stroke, the D.C. medical examiner's office said yesterday.

"It was an accidental death as a result of the exercise in a hot environment," said Randy Moshos, director of forensic investigations for the medical examiner's office.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...by-heat/a134ded8-ee9b-4df6-b189-885c2524947f/

However, in a more recent case, the coaches have been charged with murder, bbm:

“Two Atlanta-area high school coaches are facing murder charges after one of their players died of a heat stroke during conditioning drills. Now, coaches who push kids hard in the heat are on notice.”
Two high school coaches charged with murder after basketball player died of heat stroke following practice

ETA: I have to add that I don’t feel that the G-C parents set out to harm their family that day.

 

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

That day, as they headed out, they must have believed they had enough water for everyone, though. Only hours later would they have realized their mistake.
It's a cognitive bias to think, "We would have known to bring much more water. They remind me of us. How could they have only brought 2.5 L for that loop ..."
But I think they just misjudged it. They truly didn't know what they'd be facing that day.

IMO the only way they could have thought they had enough water as they started out, was if JG was thinking of his similar hikes back in the spring, during cooler weather. Maybe they were unaware of the excessive heat advisory for the weekend. Maybe they didn't think the day would heat up the way it did, and didn't consider the effect of a treeless southern exposure on the temps on the trail. Did they even know the SL trail was treeless, due to fire? They must have; they had a second home nearby.

The only way it makes any sense is if they somehow forgot they were smack in the hottest part of the summer, and that the temps mid-week had reached 105. I don't know what else to say. I'm shaking my head. Even if they thought they could do the hike in a few hours and be done by noon or 1 pm, those few hours would still see a significant increase in temperature.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Thank You. I wish we could stickie this to the front page....

For the hikers, or anyone who may know, would hiking back to the river make sense (presuming they were thinking clearly, not affected yet by heat exhaustion)?

Stay by the river overnight, if heat and exhaustion were the two main issues? Rest and hike at dawn?

Yes, I too wish the sheriff's transcript was stickied! And yes, I have said they could have survived if they had stayed at the river/returned to the river and used the water for cooling and hydrating until it was cool enough to hike back to their truck. If that meant staying overnight and leaving at first light, so be it.

 

[Yvettea]

There are estimates they began the hike at 8:00 am but the sheriff seems to imply they didn’t begin the ascent of SLT until 12:50 pm. That’s a long lapse of time, almost 5 hours. Does LE know their timeline know from GPS?
CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #6

 

[NSamuelle]

There are estimates they began the hike at 8:00 am but the sheriff seems to imply they didn’t begin the ascent of SLT until 12:50 pm. That’s a long lapse of time, almost 5 hours. Does LE know their timeline know from GPS?
CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #6

Do phones have dead reckoning (GPS without a cellular signal)? If so, LE would know the time stamps of the whole hike including the time they started to ascend SL.

 

[Yvettea]

We know they didn’t have cell signal where they were found. That was reported early (deputies had to hike out of the canyon to get a signal.). But is it that way along the entire loop?

 

[rahod1]

There are estimates they began the hike at 8:00 am but the sheriff seems to imply they didn’t begin the ascent of SLT until 12:50 pm. That’s a long lapse of time, almost 5 hours. Does LE know their timeline know from GPS?
CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #6

BBM
There isn't any evidence to support when they started the hike up SL.

 

[RedHaus]

BBM
There isn't any evidence to support when they started the hike up SL.

Well, @radho1, why don't we look at what the Sheriff said (and wrote) in his 9/30/2021 presser, which I believe @Han was referencing.

... At the Savage Lundy Trail intersection, the elevation is approximately 1800 ft and the temperature was approximately 99-103 degrees... Jonathan, Ellen, Miju and Oski then began the steep incline section of the Savage Lundy trail. This section of the trail is a south/southeast facing slope exposing the trail to constant sunlight. There is very little shade along this section of trail due to the Ferguson Fire of 2018. The temperatures along that section of trail ranged between 107-109 degrees from 12:50pm -2:50pm cooling slightly from 4:50pm to 8:50pm from 105-89 degrees. The family hiked approximately 2 miles up the Savage Lundy trail.

So IMO, you are correct, the Sheriff did not state when the family started up the SLT... he only stated that between 12:50-2:50 pm it was REALLY HOT. But I also agree with @Han in trying to interpret why the Sheriff would say that if the family was not on or near the trail at that time. Otherwise it is just a stray factoid.

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[Lexiintoronto]

We know they didn’t have cell signal where they were found. That was reported early (deputies had to hike out of the canyon to get a signal.). But is it that way along the entire loop?

That’s a good question. I know hikers will sometimes climb up in order to try to get a cell signal.

Here’s one quote about what you mentioned:
‘Mitchell also said the family was located in such a remote area that sheriff units had to hike to get satellite phone service.’
Family and Dog Mysteriously All Found Dead, Prompting Officials to Declare a 'Hazmat Situation'

 

[Lexiintoronto]

BBM
There isn't any evidence to support when they started the hike up SL.

The sheriff gave the 12:50pm —2:50pm timeframe, my guess is they have a possible estimated time of death, maybe based on stomach contents.(speculation)

I may be wrong—maybe it’s something else.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

I have wondered this too @NSamuelle, but was not sure how to express it without sounding crass. So thank you for opening this door so gently. I have considered, like you, that JG/EC may have been driven to hike their last 2 miles up SLT in a desperate attempt to get back to the truck and home to 'make all this right again - get Miju and Oski back to safety.' Their motivation, perhaps understandably, could have been to avoid being discovered with two critically ailing dependents by LE or SARS. IMO, they may have thought if they retreated to the river to get / stay cool and wait for rescue or much cooler temperatures overnight, then they might face allegations as you describe. And that alone might have scared them into their demise. It might not have required a nefarious character to scare them to death.

All IMO.

I think it highly likely that they realized Miju in particular was suffering, and that they were running low on water, and those things motivated them to make a determined effort to get to the safety of their truck. I don't think it's necessary to include being worried about legal consequences, fear for the safety of your loved ones is a strong enough motivator.

 

[rahod1]

Well, @radho1, why don't we look at what the Sheriff said (and wrote) in his 9/30/2021 presser, which I believe @Han was referencing.

... At the Savage Lundy Trail intersection, the elevation is approximately 1800 ft and the temperature was approximately 99-103 degrees... Jonathan, Ellen, Miju and Oski then began the steep incline section of the Savage Lundy trail. This section of the trail is a south/southeast facing slope exposing the trail to constant sunlight. There is very little shade along this section of trail due to the Ferguson Fire of 2018. The temperatures along that section of trail ranged between 107-109 degrees from 12:50pm -2:50pm cooling slightly from 4:50pm to 8:50pm from 105-89 degrees. The family hiked approximately 2 miles up the Savage Lundy trail.

So IMO, you are correct, the Sheriff did not state when the family started up the SLT... he only stated that between 12:50-2:50 pm it was REALLY HOT. But I also agree with @Han in trying to interpret why the Sheriff would say that if the family was not on or near the trail at that time. Otherwise it is just a stray factoid.

"There are estimates they began the hike at 8:00 am but the sheriff seems to imply they didn’t begin the ascent of SLT until 12:50 pm. That’s a long lapse of time, almost 5 hours"
So @Han is attempting to extrapolate the temperatures in a given time range provided by LE with the TIME it took them to get there and depart SL ( Min 5 hrs). There is no nexus between temp estimates and the actual activity of the family in my mind..none. LE had temp data in a given time frame and used it to inform us of the prevailing temps at the time. Very informative, but not indicative of their actual activity. It also implies they marched about 4 miles to SL and deparated SL in about a 5 hr time frame. Makes no sense, albeit possible.

 

[RickshawFan]

BBM
From LE transcript:

"It should be noted that there was only one 85 oz water bladder located with the family. This water bladder was empty and no other water containers or water filtration systems were located amongst the family."
I assume if they discarded empty bottles they would have been found by LE along the trail. MOO

IMO extra bottles would have had to go on the baby carrier, since EC wasn't carrying a pack. Because of the additional weight on JG, that doesn't seem likely at all.
Keep in mind: 1 liter of water = approx 2 lbs + the weight of the container.

 

[RickshawFan]

The sheriff gave the 12:50pm —2:50pm timeframe, my guess is they have a possible estimated time of death, maybe based on stomach contents.(speculation)

I may be wrong—maybe it’s something else.

Wow. They would have been 5-7 hours on that trail. I'll bet the dog got loose (because EC hiked with him off leash) and took off near the water because he was desperate, and they had a hard time corralling him.
Wasn't there an early LE report that the dog was "tied" to JG? That has always seemed very odd to me; he wasn't described as "leashed". I'm guessing they had to improvise something to tie him. Speculation.

 

[rahod1]

Wow. They would have been 5-7 hours on that trail. I'll bet the dog got loose (because EC hiked with him off leash) and took off near the water because he was desperate, and they had a hard time corralling him.
Wasn't there an early LE report that the dog was "tied" to JG? That has always seemed very odd to me; he wasn't described as "leashed". I'm guessing they had to improvise something to tie him. Speculation.

LE has the answer to that. I say dog was leashed to JG at the end. As far as dog running amuck? Pure speculation.

 

[RedHaus]

"There are estimates they began the hike at 8:00 am but the sheriff seems to imply they didn’t begin the ascent of SLT until 12:50 pm. That’s a long lapse of time, almost 5 hours"
So @Han is attempting to extrapolate the temperatures in a given time range provided by LE with the TIME it took them to get there and depart SL ( Min 5 hrs). There is no nexus between temp estimates and the actual activity of the family in my mind..none. LE had temp data in a given time frame and used it to inform us of the prevailing temps at the time. Very informative, but not indicative of their actual activity. It also implies they marched about 4 miles to SL and deparated SL in about a 5 hr time frame. Makes no sense, albeit possible.

Yes, I believe we're both saying the same thing. In fairness to @Han's interpretation though, the Sheriff, in his statement, interchanged his facts between what he believes the family did and the order they did it with interesting tidbits about ambient temperatures at various times of day at various locations. The presentation of those facts interchanged with one another is what could lead many people to misinterpret the statements to mean the family did a certain thing during a specific range in time.

 

[Seattle1]

I think you know by now, @neesaki, that I tend to agree with you.

To that point, did you or anyone else notice in Sheriff Briese's 9/30/2021 presser on this case, no manner of death was announced? Only cause of death. And that includes the Q&A session if my notes are accurate (it was hard to hear questions).

If this is true, does that mean LE is still undecided on manner of death? They had prevously announced suicide was ruled out. So that leaves accident, homicide and natural manners of death. With heat stroke as cause of death, you'd think that finding would be accompanied by 'accident' as manner of death. So then why didn't the Sheriff say that if it was settled? I just wonder if manner of death is in fact still undetermined? If so, it could be LE is as confused as we are on this.

Did anyone read or hear an announcement by the Sheriff on manner of death for this case?

Wasn't the manner of death question shuffled to a non-response with his reply about how the cell phone is still being analyzed?

 

[Yvettea]

You’re right, it’s incorrect that the sheriff implied they began the ascent at 12:50. The times and temperatures are estimates based on historical data.