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And if we are talking probability and not possibility: then I would say if a shot gun was involved we are looking at under 50 yards.
I'm curious to know what firearms are issued (if any) to the guards at the correctional facility? What is security like for the detainees (incl the transfr detainees from CAMP AP per #672)?
According to an 1995 LA Times article
"When repeat juvenile offenders are released from a high-security facility, such as Camp David Gonzalez in Malibu, they usually are sent home, back to the same streets where they learned to get in trouble in the first place."
So at least in 1995 it was high security.
The article goes on to say:
"
* Those tutored: some of the 135 wards of the court serving sentences at Camp David Gonzales: ages 16-19
* Reasons for incarceration: Primarily violent crimes, from robbery to murder"
MAKING A DIFFERENCE: Camp David Gonzales : Learning a Path Out of Prison
Again, this is an old article and it sounds like the camp was going through some changes lately. Someone who had been there with a violent crime background like murder would know though that this is a fairly isolate area with lots of vegetation to hide in and maybe use as 'hunting' ground for inherent violent behaviour? I wonder when it was released that the facility as it was would be closing? Maybe that disgruntled someone?
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