Found Deceased CA - Paul Miller, 51, Canadian missing in Joshua Tree National Park, San Bernardino Co., 13 Jul 2018

[rosesfromangels]

If I had to guess, I'm imagining him going off trail to perch himself at the edge of a precarious drop off to get that prize picture. I suspect he lost his balance, (easy to do when you are looking through the lens of a camera), and has fallen in to a ravine of sorts. I think drones are the best bet, and should be deployed to the areas that have significant drop offs.

 

[whatsnext]

Of course I have no huge knowledge about SAR and such, but from what was reported, they searched a huge area. Where was that phone really? Car or hotel?

 

[Poppyflower]

The bighorn sheep that he apparently wanted to photograph are best seen at the oasis and usually at dusk/dawn.

That would also be a major motivator to get out earlier. The sheep are smart enough to not be out at 9am in July at JTNP. They aren't going to be out to be photographed at 9am??? yk?

I wonder if their children NEEDED her to be home with them?

I agree with many of you, NO WAY am I leaving without my loved one. I will hand out water bottles to volunteers, post flyers, I wanna say I would search with volunteers but might me to scared to see something that would never leave my mind...

 

[rosesfromangels]

I need a better understanding of why the wife left. Perhaps there is a compelling reason, but it does seem highly unusual. And o.k., even hinky.

 

[Inthedetails]

Missing without a trace: Family, friends of Canadian hiker Paul Miller hold tight to hope he's alive in Joshua Tree
Missing without a trace: Family, friends of Canadian hiker Paul Miller hold tight to hope he's alive in Joshua Tree
Published 1:51 p.m. PT July 21, 2018 | Updated 2:05 p.m. PT July 21, 2018
[...]
An avid hiker from Guelph, Miller, 51, and his wife were vacationing in the desert last week in celebration of their 26th wedding anniversary.
They were getting ready to check out of their hotel room in Twentynine Palms the morning of July 13, but he wanted to take one more hike in hopes of spotting – and photographing – some bighorn sheep, so he headed for the 49 Palms Oasis trail in Joshua Tree National park.
[...]
Miller’s car, a rental he and his wife had picked up in Las Vegas, where they started their vacation, was found at the 49 Palms Oasis trailhead.
But that’s all. There have been no other traces of Miller – no footsteps, empty water bottles. No sunglasses or camera parts to indicate he may have fallen somewhere.
Not even a scent that search dogs could pick up, said David Smith, Joshua Tree National Park superintendent.
He also left his cell phone at the hotel – not unusual, Otten said.
“He is not a glued-to-his-cell” person, she said.
[...]
They had hiked extensively together at the park July 12, Otten said.
[...]

Paul and Stephanie Miller came to Joshua Tree National Park from Guelph, Ontario, to hike. He went out for a short hike on July 13, 2018, alone and has been missing since. (Photo: Courtesy of Ainsley Otten)

Helpful to have more info!

The idea of leaving his phone at the hotel actually rings true to me. We haven't found any SM for him and his friends say he's not glued to his phone. I can believe that.

Could he have seen a sheep while still in the parking lot and never made it to the trail because he went in the direction of the sheep??

jmo

 

[PaulR]

Could he have seen a sheep while still in the parking lot and never made it to the trail because he went in the direction of the sheep??

jmo

Maybe but why not just take the photo?

I'd also think that SAR would have seen his footprints since there's only the oasis trail, there doesn't seem to be any other trail there.

 

[MaryG12]

Any updates on that rental car?

And...

Any possibility he parked it there and was picked up by someone else?

Was his cellphone checked for messages prior to his leaving it at the hotel room?

More questions...

 

[SpanishMossAntiques]

That trail that he was on looks pretty rough - going from the parking lot to the oasis is uphill for nearly half-way; it's around a 350' gain in elevation! In one area the grade of the trail is 26 degrees - that is steep! With the very hot weather and complete lack of shade until you reach the palms, this would be a brutal hike, even for someone who was acclimated to a desert environment. I don't know how much water he had with him,but I'd say to do the trail in that weather a gallon would not be out of the question (in fact, I really don't think that would be enough; I used to work as a Park Ranger, and was assigned to foot patrol on the really hot summer days as I knew how to deal with the heat). If he had made it to the oasis he could've drank the spring water that's coming out of the ground there for self-rescue. Sadly, I'm assuming that he fell...

 

[SeesSeas]

Did he get into another vehicle a few feet away from his vehicle?
Determining whether subject got into a vehicle and left. . .
Deployment of a Search Dog
Tracking/Trailing Dogs
Advantages:
*Very effective in initial deployment, if deployed correctly.
*If trained to do so, can perform a no scent indication or end of scent indication. This eliminates areas in the search. This is crucial in determining whether the subject was ever at that location or whether subject got into a vehicle and left.

Missing without a trace: Family, friends of Canadian hiker Paul Miller hold tight to hope he's alive in Joshua Tree
“There is still no physical evidence regarding the hiker,” Smith said. “There were numerous dog teams out searching, and they were unable to hit on any scents.”

 

[SpanishMossAntiques]

It's nearly impossible to follow someone's footprints in an area like that which most likely has frequent daily hikers. Footprints are best in mud near a creek or river, but in dusty sand? No way. I used to work as a Park Ranger and I'm good at tracking, but a desert environment is challenging at best - especially after a day or so passes and the winds re-set the sand. If I were there participating in the SAR I'd be using a drone, and also I'd be checking all around the base of that hill.

Maybe but why not just take the photo?

I'd also think that SAR would have seen his footprints since there's only the oasis trail, there doesn't seem to be any other trail there.

 

[SpanishMossAntiques]

I've hiked in Joshua Tree a few times, and some trails are really tough. I've only ever been there in late fall and early spring, when it's cool. It's not uncommon for people to go missing there; I've always found the lack of shade in many areas hard to deal with... I hope they find him alive someplace, or maybe he just went somewhere else and will return - hopefully!

 

[MaryG12]

Did he get into another vehicle a few feet away from his vehicle?
Determining whether subject got into a vehicle and left. . .
Deployment of a Search Dog
Tracking/Trailing Dogs
Advantages:
*Very effective in initial deployment, if deployed correctly.
*If trained to do so, can perform a no scent indication or end of scent indication. This eliminates areas in the search. This is crucial in determining whether the subject was ever at that location or whether subject got into a vehicle and left.

Missing without a trace: Family, friends of Canadian hiker Paul Miller hold tight to hope he's alive in Joshua Tree
“There is still no physical evidence regarding the hiker,” Smith said. “There were numerous dog teams out searching, and they were unable to hit on any scents.”

BBM
I am thinking the same exact thing.

Maybe by someone he met at one of the previous parks.

Maybe a woman.

May explain why his wife returned home to Canada...

 

[SeesSeas]

That trail that he was on looks pretty rough - going from the parking lot to the oasis is uphill for nearly half-way; it's around a 350' gain in elevation! In one area the grade of the trail is 26 degrees - that is steep! With the very hot weather and complete lack of shade until you reach the palms, this would be a brutal hike, even for someone who was acclimated to a desert environment. I don't know how much water he had with him,but I'd say to do the trail in that weather a gallon would not be out of the question (in fact, I really don't think that would be enough; I used to work as a Park Ranger, and was assigned to foot patrol on the really hot summer days as I knew how to deal with the heat). If he had made it to the oasis he could've drank the spring water that's coming out of the ground there for self-rescue. Sadly, I'm assuming that he fell...

Not a long trail. . . 1.5 miles. So if he fell in an area off the trail, it seems that one of the searchers (90 ground searchers, six canine teams, an ATV search team and a helicopter) would have found something.
Photos at this link:
49 Palms Oasis Trail Hiking Trail, Twentynine Palms, California

Missing Without a Trace: Family, friends of Canadian hiker Paul Miller hold tight to hope he's alive in Joshua Tree
At peak, the search effort included up to 90 ground searchers, six canine teams, an ATV search team and a helicopter from multiple agencies.

Let's hike:
Frank Klassen / Published on Feb 17, 2016
A hike to the 49 Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park, California

 

[bbbd4u]

Hello @bbbd4u , would you mind telling us your opinion about Paul 's disappearance? I think everyone here would appreciate it very much!
You girls and guys who deal with SAR have my deepest respect.

I can give my opinion but there are a couple of variables that have not been made public that would change my opinion. First I have to say I my certifications are done through NASAR 'National Association for Search and Rescue.' I am not a dog handler but I am very well expierence with being a flanker for a dog handler. I also have a lot of expierence with being in Incident Command and overseeing operations and planning in regards to running a search operation. I am not an expert but I do consider myself well seasoned. One thing I have learned over the years is each search is unique in itself and there is always something to learn and improve on in each mission.

This is my opinion an mine alone. I am one to follow the facts I know the mind can wander and sometimes the wandering but strictly speaking on SAR operations you have to go where the facts lead.

The response time was phenomenal! It is not very often that there is such a tight timeline and that timeline helps greatly! He was not long overdue when reported missing! A search was activated within a short period of time after being reported missing. Which I take that as there is less chance for cross contamination in the area I would call his LKP- 'Last Known Point.' I completely understand that as I currently know there has been no one who has "seen" him in this area. It's considered his LKP because he had "told" his wife that is where he was going and that is where his car was found so that area must be cleared.

I would love to know if they deployed trailing dogs immediately upon arrival. If I were leading the search I would put one dog, their handler and a flanker at the LKP and assign them to search 1/2 mile of the trail. I would then assign a 2nd dog to that same assignment because animals are like humans they are not perfect and things can get missed.

From what I had read no dogs made a 'hit' on anything in that area. I would have applied more resources such as they did. In SAR people are trained to look for clues, also known as sign cutting. With nothing being reported as having any sign or trace of him in that area I would report back to LE and I would tell them I am 90% confident that the missing subject is not in that area. It would be at 95% if there were drone footage available to clear areas boots on the ground could not search.

I would then hope LE would further look into the details of the missing subjects personal life. Who was the last person to actually see the person alive and where did they last see him? Has his cell phone location been pinged? If it pinged to another area in my opinion that area and a 1.5 mile radius around his last cell phone ping should be cleared.

I would not stick resources back into the National Park area LKP unless there was a change in the weather. When the weather cools some it would then be worth an additional search of sending cadaver dogs in.

Nothing about this search based on public knowledge (I know what you know) tells me he was ever at this location!

 

[bbbd4u]

It's nearly impossible to follow someone's footprints in an area like that which most likely has frequent daily hikers. Footprints are best in mud near a creek or river, but in dusty sand? No way. I used to work as a Park Ranger and I'm good at tracking, but a desert environment is challenging at best - especially after a day or so passes and the winds re-set the sand. If I were there participating in the SAR I'd be using a drone, and also I'd be checking all around the base of that hill.

Foot prints might now have been seen but a trailing dog of deployed right after a missing persons bulletin went out would have picked up his scent. When you walk it doesnt matter the environment you leave a scent behind on skin cells. That scent dissipates after time but it's my understanding that dogs were deployed right away and if that is the situation and they had no 'hits' the probably of him actually being found there goes down greatly. That is just my opinion from working with many dogs and their handlers.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Based on the SAR feedback upthread, I would now polygraph the wife...just to check that box off.

 

[Alexsea]

I can give my opinion but there are a couple of variables that have not been made public that would change my opinion. First I have to say I my certifications are done through NASAR 'National Association for Search and Rescue.' I am not a dog handler but I am very well expierence with being a flanker for a dog handler. I also have a lot of expierence with being in Incident Command and overseeing operations and planning in regards to running a search operation. I am not an expert but I do consider myself well seasoned. One thing I have learned over the years is each search is unique in itself and there is always something to learn and improve on in each mission.

This is my opinion an mine alone. I am one to follow the facts I know the mind can wander and sometimes the wandering but strictly speaking on SAR operations you have to go where the facts lead.

The response time was phenomenal! It is not very often that there is such a tight timeline and that timeline helps greatly! He was not long overdue when reported missing! A search was activated within a short period of time after being reported missing. Which I take that as there is less chance for cross contamination in the area I would call his LKP- 'Last Known Point.' I completely understand that as I currently know there has been no one who has "seen" him in this area. It's considered his LKP because he had "told" his wife that is where he was going and that is where his car was found so that area must be cleared.

I would love to know if they deployed trailing dogs immediately upon arrival. If I were leading the search I would put one dog, their handler and a flanker at the LKP and assign them to search 1/2 mile of the trail. I would then assign a 2nd dog to that same assignment because animals are like humans they are not perfect and things can get missed.

From what I had read no dogs made a 'hit' on anything in that area. I would have applied more resources such as they did. In SAR people are trained to look for clues, also known as sign cutting. With nothing being reported as having any sign or trace of him in that area I would report back to LE and I would tell them I am 90% confident that the missing subject is not in that area. It would be at 95% if there were drone footage available to clear areas boots on the ground could not search.

Snipped for some brevity but based on my own SAR training I cannot “like” this enough. Thank you.

 

[RickshawFan]

Just 2 months ago, a hiker from NZ got injured and lost for several days in Joshua Tree near a trail for a different oasis. Similarities?

She went for a desert hike. Then, her moment of 'utter terror'

Kiwi woman drank her own urine as she prepared for death in US desert

 

[whatsnext]

@bbbd4u , thank you very much for your post, very well explained information about how those operations are being handled

 

[Purplepixii]

It's nice to read a bit more about Paul & Stephanie's relationship (wow, they were celebrating their 26th wedding anniversary!) along with friends' comments Missing Without a Trace: Family, friends of Canadian hiker Paul Miller hold tight to hope he's alive in Joshua Tree

This is so odd, it has me hooked.
Why did Stephanie go home? Their children are adults at 19 & 20 - old enough to fly out to join her where Paul was last seen. It's not like they're young and need their mom. You'd have to drag me kicking & screaming (or sedated) away from the area my missing OH was!

The post by @bbbd4u has my hinky meter going. But then I remember all too well cases where searchers have missed bodies. Mind you, from what I understand of the weather there a decomposing body shouldn't be hard for dogs to hit on (assuming it is close to the trail and not down a ravine/hole).

There's a nice interactive map on this page to understand the hike Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park
Based on the reports about Paul & Stephanie being avid hikers would it really have been that difficult for him? Injuries permitting of course.

There are 2 outcomes for me:
1/ He never went on the hike and is alive & well somewhere else (possibly with someone else).
2/ He went on the hike, had an accident, and his body is off the trail in a hard-to-find location (but then @bbbd4u 's post seems to rule that out).

Puzzling!!