California - Coronavirus COVID-19

[Herat]

It turns out that CoVid -19 is still CoVid-2, so the antibody tests were (kind of) accurate. Now, the real problem with that study seems to be that people self-selected AND that they were mostly upper middle class suburbanites who were already more isolated than people who work in crowded workplaces. The other factor is that participants were disproportionately from the foothills south and west of Stanford - where people live on large properties, there's often only one worker in the household, and a significant amount of work done from home in the first place, as I understand it.

I don't have my links handy - I'll try to post them. I popped in to post this update:

Coronavirus: California hasn't flattened curve — yet

We aren't seeing linear expansion of cases in California, but yesterday we had a bump up, and statewide, cases are up 15% in one week. Good news for the Bay Area - only up by 3%.

But that's still up. The criticism of the IMHE model is that it shows cases going to zero everywhere, which is an artifact of their model - not reality. Cases are not going to go to zero any time soon unless this virus truly is seasonal. California's weather in no way resembles seasonal weather elsewhere, though. The data from Australia (where the virus took strong hold during their autumn) will be interesting. Will it go up in Australia winter? Why was it so virulent in the relatively mild winter climate of Lombardy and Tuscany?

Lots to learn. Anyway, Peony, I do have more links on the Santa Clara study. I forgot I posted that here, and it's too late to correct it. The "19" in CoVid-19 is just shorthand for CV-2-2019 (year of origin).

The overall criticism of the study also spins on whether it was sensitive to all the versions of CoVid-2-19. Here's an article showing the variations in this virus (all of them CoVid-2, known to most of us as CoVid-19):

SARS Coronavirus 2 – LOINC

So I stand corrected and now understand the terminology of that study. Presumably, any immunity to CV-2 is immunity to CV-19.

It's important to note that most of these quickie, non-FDA validated fingerstick antibody tests cannot discriminate at all between the 5 known coronaviruses that infect humans.

Better tests out there that are coming up for EUA by the FDA have more specificity for 3 of the 5 coronaviruses, so 2 coronaviruses are eliminated from the positive results. They are also far better validated, properly designed tests. However, they are still in short supply.

I do have some questions about cross-reacting antibodies as I have seen several local people who have had "positive" antibody tests but also spent substantial time in the mid-east in the military. I'm a bit worried that there may be cross-reactivity with antibodies not from the current SARS-Cov-2 virus.

 

[Herat]

The statisticians and virologists were testing for the old CoVid (2) not 19. Their hope was to compare the numbers, since they know a lot about the time when CoVid-2 swept through the area. There were very few reported cases, and their study shows that way more people had it than doctors realized.

What they're trying to do with that study is figure out sampling techniques that they can use when the CV19 antibody tests become available. They are experimenting with sample size, recruitment and region. Within Santa Clara County, they know now that some populations had more CV in the past than other populations. It's likely to be the same this time. So sampling techniques should try to balance those demographics and not just sample from one population (say, Asians) who might have higher numbers.

Further, the study is predictive. If doctors didn't know the extent of CV-2 as it was unfolding, then they probably don't know that rate now. It was thought to be way, way less than 3%. IOW, only a handful of cases became symptomatic enough to warrant hospitalization and then testing.

Probably the same right now.

And just to clarify:

The official taxonomic name of the current virus is SARS-Cov-2

The name of the infection is COVID-19

There is no virus called CV-2.

 

[margarita25]

California governor orders Orange County beaches to close

“Calling it a "temporary pause," Newsom told reporters the beaches may reopen very quickly "if we can get some framework and guidelines to get this right."”

[...]

“"We just want to focus on where there's a problem ... in a smart, strategic way," Newsom said. "We don't want to be heavy-handed about these things."”

[...]

“The order was announced on the day Orange County reported 145 new cases of Covid-19, its largest one-day tally. There have been a total of 2,393 cases in the county, with 45 deaths, according to data from OC Health.”

—

“"My job as governor is to keep you safe, and when our health folks tell me they can't promise that if we promote another weekend like we had then I have to make this adjustment," Newsom said.

An additional 95 people died from Covid-19 on Wednesday, he said. The state saw a 5.2% increase in confirmed cases since yesterday for a total of 48,917.

"Why undo all the great progress? Let's move this state forward together," Newsom said.””

California Gov. Gavin Newsom to close Orange County beaches after weekend crowds

—-

Orange County reports single-day high of 145 new COVID-19 cases

“It’s the fourth day in the last six with at least 100 new cases reported. That number had been reached just once previously, when 104 cases were reported on April 1”

[...]

“Santa Ana remains the Orange County city with the most cases, with 366 as of Thursday, an increase of 36 cases from Wednesday. Anaheim has 346 reported COVID-19 cases.

Among local cities, Huntington Beach has 223 cases. Newport Beach has 97 cases, Costa Mesa 40, Laguna Beach 37 and Fountain Valley 32.”

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Modoc County, one of the four remaining counties with no confirmed cases, is reopening tomorrow in defiance of Governor Newsom's stay-at-home order.

California county to defy statewide stay-at-home order, allow businesses to reopen

Modoc County going against governor's Stay-at-Home order

California's Modoc County plans to end shelter-in-place order this week

Modoc County Sheriff's Office (sheriff's office page, reopen plan)

Personally, I'm torn. I understand the desire (mentally) and the need (economically) to reopen, but I'm not thrilled with the defiance aspect of it.

At the same time, I knew when I moved here that folks here don't like being part of California and don't have much if any respect for government in general (with select exceptions of course).

I don't share many of those views but I do love living here anyway. Fortunately I am free to continue self isolation to the extent I want to, except for the four hours a week I work at a library -- and we are currently doing curbside service only, with no patrons in the building. That isn't changing tomorrow although it might soon. With the need to continue social distancing, in our tiny building, we would probably still limit to one patron at a time, which I could probably handle. My comfort zones keep changing.

 

[10ofRods]

It does look like we are finally on a fairly steep downward slope for CoVid19:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

And I truly get why Modoc County (lovely part of California) wants to reopen, as they are in a special situation with virtually no new cases, as I understand it. I hope at least some of the people of Modoc appreciate that they can at least leave their county if they wish, with far less danger to themselves than if the government had done less.

Let us know how the library situation goes - my daughter works at a library too, but it's a pretty big one.

 

[Suglo]

Governor Newsom’s update on stage 2 reopening later this week:

Governor Newsom Provides Update on California’s Progress Toward Stage 2 Reopening | California Governor

ETA: Looks like some counties who meet criteria will be able to implement full Stage 2 openings quicker than others.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Thanks, @10ofRods . I agree that we in Modoc are pretty safe to go out for a walk etc. Even when I need to go to the store, if I am patient I can usually arrange to be the only customer inside, at least for a few minutes.

What worries me, though, is local people traveling outside the county, inevitably to someplace with COVID, and then returning and not thinking it important to self-quarantine.

Or even worse, folks coming here from elsewhere, shopping here with no masks or gloves and no social distancing. I can only assume they think it's not real.

Tomorrow is library day and so far, no change in rules, so no patrons allowed inside, and I will bring out requested items to patrons waiting in their car. Rules might change by next Tuesday; we'll see.

 

[10ofRods]

Don't tell anyone about Modoc County! And hopefully, when people do travel out of your county they'll only go to nearby places, also with low rates.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...f7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

See about page 3 for Northern California - looks dreamy to me. (Don't worry - not coming up there just yet and won't travel at all if not able to continue mostly isolating).

We're thinking of going to Lassen, maybe. In July or something.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

The thing is, if someone is super respectful of not spreading risk, this is a place with more than enough room for visitors to come and enjoy the landscape for fishing, hiking, camping etc.

But in a somewhat vicious circle, the folks who are traveling now are generally doing so because, or at least with the attitude of, they don't believe it's a real risk. And thus they will behave disrespectfully like not maintaining enough distance between people, not minimizing what they touch, etc.

Actually lots of locals seem to be confusing "our low population density makes it easy for us to maintain distance and stay healthy" with "we aren't at risk" or "our rah-rah community loyalty protected us" or even worse "it's all a scam".

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Trinity County has reported its first confirmed case.

First case of COVID-19 reported in Trinity County

https://www.trinitycounty.org/sites/default/files/Press Release 5.9.2020.pdf

There are now only three counties left in California with no reported cases.

And a report from one of those counties:

A friend asked if I wanted to have brunch at the cafe with her this morning, since we (Modoc County) are "open again". I was reluctant but agreed, mostly out of curiosity.

The restaurant had blocked off some of the tables to reduce capacity. But the tables were still there, which meant still navigating narrow passages. When I arrived there were a few tables occupied, mostly with folks I recognized as locals.

But then unfamiliar faces started to appear. One couple sat behind me and my friend, at a table that was really too close to ours. My friend struck up a conversation with them and it turns out they are from near Sacramento, and it appears they were just on a scenic road trip. They wanted to know where to see birds, flowers in bloom, beautiful vistas (which we do have in abundance).

Their county (El Dorado) is still at stay-at-home, I assume. Of course no mention was made of that. The man said they hadn't eaten out in a couple of months. That made it sound like they came here BECAUSE we had opened our businesses -- just as I feared! Ugh!

I became very uncomfortable and left even before my friend was through eating. I won't be doing that again anytime soon. Maybe takeout occasionally, or sitting in their outside seating when the weather is amenable.

But they were all operating as if we were "back to normal" and as if the reduction of available tables was the only accommodation needed.

Needless to say none of the staff wore masks etc. Since we have no known cases it's hard to respond to those who think those rules are overblown. And sadly I think it's the majority here who think that.

But to then come home and read that Trinity, which has avoided a case all this time just like we have, and which has fewer through highways (and therefore passers-through) than we do, has got a case, is just a slap of reality.

 

[10ofRods]

The overall stats for California today are another slap of reality.

It's the second graph on this chart that worries me:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

On April 5, everyone started taking the shutdown seriously because we had 2,197 new cases and as @Auntie Cipation points out, several counties sat at zero cases.

In mid-April the rates slowed to 1000 cases a day, sometimes lower, so we all breathed a sigh of relief and thought the worst was over. People began to go back out, even where there were policies not to do so.

When the rate rose to its highest (2583 new cases in one 24 hour period) on April 29, everyone got worried again, many of us sheltered, but we know from many observations that many people ignored it and so by May 9, new cases rose to 2779.

That would reflect behavior from about April 26ish or Easter-ish.

In mid-May, we got used to daily case numbers of about 1000-2000 a day, began to do more contact tracing, could see more about where people were getting CoVid (although at least half of cases were "community transmitted" which means "you got it somewhere while you were out of your house."

Then, on May 30, we had our worst day in terms of new cases (3273) which was preceded by some other high numbers in that last week of May (so behavior in the first and second week of May was obviously not optimal).

So we decide to reopen more! On June 4, we had 2820 new cases - which would have been a record high on any day before May 30, I believe.

The data from the last few days (today is a Monday as I type) isn't fully tabulated yet. May 30 was a Saturday - which is often a day when some reports don't come in, so it's alarming that the real number is probably higher.

A Marin County epidemiologist says the CMI (case mortality rate) is 5%. So with 3000 people a day getting CoVid, we can expect 150 deaths. If one-third of them are in nursing homes, as predicted, then 100 people, average age around 69 will die daily by next month. While stories of people under 40 dying are rare enough to frequently make the news, people of all ages, including in their 20's, are regretting the after-effects and perhaps lifetime consequences of getting CoVid.

Marin epidemiologist: Virus crisis just beginning

100 people a day is 3000 per month and 150 day is 4500 per month. Naturally, as older people decrease gradually in number, that will affect rates, but it's so sad that we're apparently relying on something like that, as a society, to help us stop CV19.

If the number of daily new cases goes up due to reopening and protests, will we ever be able to shutdown again? I do believe that children under 12 are less likely to transmit the virus - but that's just a hunch. We await news from school reopenings in Europe and elsewhere to give us guidance. If this sweeps through the parental age group (30's, 40's, 50's) with even a 1% per case mortality rate, it's a terrible tragedy - which could have been prevented.

 

[charminglane]

This is the first week with all employees returning to the library.
Curbside pick ups only by appointment.
We are a large enough building to spread out and maintain distance with one another.
Awaiting health department guidelines for limited reopening to patrons. I prefer the Get In, Get Out model, no chairs.
Supposed limited opening July 6.
Also awaiting the Museum and Library Services tests of materials for quarantine times. The release of the information has been pushed to middle of June.
We let all materials sit for 3 days.
Pasadena area.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

This is the first week with all employees returning to the library.
Curbside pick ups only by appointment.
We are a large enough building to spread out and maintain distance with one another.
Awaiting health department guidelines for limited reopening to patrons. I prefer the Get In, Get Out model, no chairs.
Supposed limited opening July 6.
Also awaiting the Museum and Library Services tests of materials for quarantine times. The release of the information has been pushed to middle of June.
We let all materials sit for 3 days.
Pasadena area.

Earlier I saw @JaneEyre say that she had read something indicating three days was not long enough to quarantine books. I've been meaning to ask her what that source was, but hadn't gotten around to it. This seems like a good time to ask.

Separate question for you, Charming -- do you have many patrons who struggle with requesting things online (or do they call and place their requests over the phone?). We have patrons who don't have/use the internet, and also some who NEED to browse to find something they want -- they don't seem able to come up with something to request otherwise. Some of these folks are NOT HAPPY with our curbside service for this reason. I feel for them but wish they would see that we are trying to make the best of a bad situation.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Earlier I saw @JaneEyre say that she had read something indicating three days was not long enough. I've been meaning to ask her what that source was, but hadn't gotten around to it. This seems like a good time to ask.

Separate question for you, Charming -- do you have many patrons who struggle with requesting things online (or do they call and place their requests over the phone?). We have patrons who don't have/use the internet, and also some who NEED to browse to find something they want -- they don't seem able to come up with something to request otherwise. Some of these folks are NOT HAPPY with our curbside service for this reason. I feel for them but wish they would see that we are trying to make the best of a bad situation.

Preliminary results of the tests being done by the coalition of libraries on a national level suggest, in the opinion of my library consortium, that 3 days may not be long enough. Hence, they suggest we quarantine everything for 7 days. I believe most libraries in my state are currently doing that for now.

Bottom line is that we do not have definitive results yet. I don’t know if @charminglane is also relying on the group testing that OCLC is part of.

My boss doesn't see us opening beyond curbside until September. I am finding creative ways to let our patrons "browse" our collection. And I will continue to attempt to load them up with more books than they need on each trip because I fear we could shut down again.

I suspect libraries that serve larger populations will actually open before us. We are being extremely cautious. Perhaps overly so. I have mixed feelings about it.

 

[charminglane]

Yes, Jane, we are waiting for the group testing from REALM.
We have the advantage of heat. Our drop boxes are directly in the sun.
That said, most items sit longer than the 3 days. There is so much work to do.
Auntie-we take orders by phone, chat, and email. The phones ring nonstop. We have a limit of 10 items each day, 50 pick up slots.
If we open our large room for computer use for public, we will have only 2 computers and printing capabilities. No furniture. We are working on getting the new arrivals(there aren't many since budget went to ebooks) for browsing in that room and allowing a limited number of people in for a limited amount of time.
As you know, a work in progress.
I feel we will be closing down in fall as well.
We have had a few coworkers with low level symptoms that tested negative. As far as I know, no patrons have been ill.
All employees are masked and we each carry a spray bottle of medical grade disinfectant, cleaning after ourselves whenever we leave an area.
I am contacting a distillery tomorrow to see if I can score bulk hand sanitizer.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Thanks for replying, @JaneEyre !

Thanks too @charminglane . If we open back up soon, we will only allow one patron at a time, or two if they are together. No public computer access or maybe as the one patron with a ten minute limit.

Here is my attempt to help those who must see/browse to decide. This is our "new book" collection at the branch. Fortunately we have the window space available to do this -- our other small branches don't.



People browse and then call (or point) so I know what they want.

At closing, I slide cardboard in front of the books to protect them from the sun while we are closed (we are only open one day per week, noon until 4pm).

 

[margarita25]

Gene study suggests coronavirus came to California multiple times - CNN

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Thanks for replying, @JaneEyre !

Thanks too @charminglane . If we open back up soon, we will only allow one patron at a time, or two if they are together. No public computer access or maybe as the one patron with a ten minute limit.

Here is my attempt to help those who must see/browse to decide. This is our "new book" collection at the branch. Fortunately we have the window space available to do this -- our other small branches don't.

View attachment 250428 View attachment 250429

People browse and then call (or point) so I know what they want.

At closing, I slide cardboard in front of the books to protect them from the sun while we are closed (we are only open one day per week, noon until 4pm).

I love that! Unfortunately, our patrons would have to climb over bushes to reach the windows. Here’s what I’m doing. Each day that I catalog new items, I post pictures to our Facebook page. And as I have to move “old” new books off the new book shelves, I also get snaps of those to post, to give them another look.

I do the same with YA, Juvie, and DVDs. It’s working. It really helps the parents to pick out picture books for the little ones, too.

I’m also trying to get some of our regular patrons hooked on a series so that it’s easy for them to find their next book. So far they’ve been pleasantly surprised by my choices for them.

Anything that works!

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I too have been encouraging series reading, and trying to keep a few books ahead of them in terms of requests from our main library.

Plus one of those signs on the window is instructions for accessing ebooks/audiobooks via Overdrive. Hopefully some folks are doing that too.

Ooh, I just realized I don't have any audiobooks on display. I might try to squeeze out a little more space for that tomorrow.

 

[10ofRods]

Earlier I saw @JaneEyre say that she had read something indicating three days was not long enough to quarantine books. I've been meaning to ask her what that source was, but hadn't gotten around to it. This seems like a good time to ask.

Separate question for you, Charming -- do you have many patrons who struggle with requesting things online (or do they call and place their requests over the phone?). We have patrons who don't have/use the internet, and also some who NEED to browse to find something they want -- they don't seem able to come up with something to request otherwise. Some of these folks are NOT HAPPY with our curbside service for this reason. I feel for them but wish they would see that we are trying to make the best of a bad situation.

The book quarantine issue is of interest to me (as well as libraries, as my younger daughter is currently laid off from her job as an assistant librarian - but she expects to go back in August).

We know that dry air increases transmission of CoVid. Books are often stored in dry areas, and books themselves soak up some humidity from the air. So libraries tend to be drier than the outside environment and with very poor ventilation.

We also know in my county that the one big library did in fact become a "hot spot" in early transmission into the homeless community that lives nearby. My daughter's job was more like being a social worker, many times, and people used the library as their living room. Our county has no mask requirement - the library will have one, but how much will that do?

The books themselves bother me only a little. We buy used books all the time. We've been quarantining them in our sunroom (100° plus) for at least 5 days, often more. For very dry, brittle books this would be a disaster, so we're freezing them - DH wants them to be there for like a month. That also kills bedbugs.

However, once out of the freezer, do we then subject them to brief (3 days in the sunroom?) I don't know - I won't be reading those. At any rate, once out of the freezer, they are probably safe to transfer to a bookshelf wash hands, then avoid reading for another week.

(I think all of this is somewhat overkill - because frankly, wearing both a mask and a face shield when going out would be more appropriate - and we haven't started doing that).