New Brunswick
3 vaccinated hospitalized COVID patients 'a bit surprising,' says epidemiologist
...clinical trial numbers are always more optimistic than real-life situations, he said, noting the COVID-19 vaccines were tested on only tens of thousands of people, and now they're being distributed to tens of millions of people globally.
So some hospitalizations were "bound to happen eventually," said Deonandan.
Three hospitalizations out of the more than 120,000 adult New Brunswickers who received at least one dose as of last week — or roughly 0.002 per cent — is about the rate he would expect, he said.
Deonandan anticipates a "vanishingly small number" of vaccinated people may also eventually die from COVID-19.
...
"What we have done a poor job of explaining is vaccines are not bulletproof vests." They're merely a mitigation tool.
And until we achieve so-called herd immunity, with between 70 and 90 per cent of the population inoculated to protect others who aren't immunized, they're the best one we've got.
"The message is, if you get vaccinated, your probability of anything bad happening to you, COVID-related, is now vanishingly small, but not zero."
...
On Tuesday, pressed for clarification on conflicting information, Department of Health spokesperson Bruce Macfarlane said the person received the first dose more than 14 days before the onset of symptoms, but the second shot was less than seven days prior to symptom onset.
"In this case the second dose is not considered active yet, so the person still has the equivalent of one dose protection," Macfarlane said in an email.
The other two people had received a single dose each — one of them more than 14 days before symptom onset and the other, less than 14 days prior, he said.
...
Deonandan said all vaccines have a failure rate. He pointed to the annual flu vaccine, which usually has an efficacy of 40 to 70 per cent.
"And yet we never complained when we got the flu vaccine and saw hey, some people got the flu," he said. "But, you know, people aren't afraid of the flu because we don't hear about the thousands who die every year of the flu."
...
Interpret numbers carefully
How we interpret and communicate the numbers is important, said Deonandan.
He offered as an example a high school of 100 people, where 99 of them are vaccinated against the measles with a vaccine that has a one per cent failure rate.
If an outbreak infects the one person who didn't get vaccinated and the one person whom the vaccine failed to protect, half of those two people were vaccinated.
"So you could look at that statistic and say, 'Oh, my God, I've got a 50-50 chance of getting measles if I got vaccinated," he said.
But that's incorrect. "You have a one per cent chance of getting measles if you got vaccinated. So it depends on how you view the numbers. This is really important."
A couple of months after more than half the population has been immunized, Deonandan expects the probability of community transmission will be so low that the vaccine failure rates will be "irrelevant."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-...spital-new-brunswick-epidemiologist-1.5983764