Hi everyone, great comments so far.
I have a few thoughts I'll break into a couple posts for readability.
I tend to favor what appears to be the most likely outcome in many of these cases--that she fell victim to foul play at the hands of someone close to her. But unless evidence points that way, I think LE and those who wish to help her have to consider all possible scenarios.
So for example...
1. People have questioned why the fiancé didn't report her missing. One possible explanation is nefarious, but I can think of alternative reasons why he and LE might not reveal the contents of the text that are more protective. Let's say she had texted to tell him that she was breaking up with him, that she was having a mental breakdown and needed some space, that she had intent to self-harm, that she was running away to pursue some adventure/passion/ex/lover, that she was using some sort of controlled substance and didn't feel safe with the baby, that she was checking into rehab/recovery etc. In any of these cases, or others we could think of, the fiancé could conceivably be trying to protect the privacy or reputation of his family. This could also explain why he didn't attend the press conference, if he doesn't truly consider her a conventional "missing person" due to the circumstances under which she "left." Maybe he doesn't want to reveal what he knows, because it will ruin her reputation, so he is avoiding being put on the spot by reporters.
Again, these are maybe not the most likely outcome in my mind, but important to consider.
2. What if it wasn't exactly a "custody exchange?"
I've seen it said that she met her fiancé to "exchange the child," then I've seen others refer to it as a "custody" exchange--but are we sure that is what it was? I've been married for 15 years, but I still might call my husband on his way home from work and say "Meet me at the grocery store to pick up our kids so I can go through the check out lane and then cook in peace...and I'll be ready for dinner." What if it was more a part of how they planned their day and then, as the day proceeded, they got into an argument and called off their plans?
What if, as she was baking, a second plan came up. Obviously, the fiancé could have picked her up. Or, purely hypothetically, let's say she had her doubts about the fiancé for months and they got into an argument, and she reached out to another friend, an ex, a flirty co-worker or someone else to blow off steam. What if someone swung by and said let's go out for drinks or Black Friday shopping? What if she called a cab or an Uber/Lyft etc. and took off for some sort of fun day or night on the town to take her mind off things? Did she take a hiking pack with her ID and credit cards and go out to unwind in nature? In any of these situations, she grabs her purse, thinking she'd be back, but then falls victim to something else.
There are many reasons someone might leave cinnamon rolls out: they didn't feel like cleaning it up then and intended to clean it up later that night, they were depressed and unmotivated, they had a change of plans and had to hurry to get ready for a different outing...
On the other hand, I also think, if she intended to leave town, she could've been picking up food her daughter likes to leave with her fiancé. That sounds like something I would do if I was leaving my kids in the care of my husband, just because I feel like he might not know or think to make sure they're stocked up on their favorite items.
3. On the bag. I have a super close relationship with my brothers, 1 of whom lives very close by. But there's no way they would have been able to look at my clothes and makeup and luggage, at age 29, and accurately assess whether I had taken a bag of clothes with me when I left. Case in point: I keep a gym bag packed with an extra makeup bag, toothbrush, and change of clothes. If I threw a few more items into that for a weekend away, would my brother notice that was missing? No. He's never even seen it before to my knowledge and he lives in the same town. He wouldn't be able to be sure how many pieces of luggage I own even. He would only be able to open my medicine cabinet and make an educated guess--like, I see a toothbrush, so she must not have taken it. But I have more than 1 toothbrush. Lots of people do.
4. On other possible reasons they might not spend Thanksgiving together...
Before we were married, while we were dating, my husband and I occasionally separated for certainly holiday functions, so I'm just trying to think of reasons they might not have been celebrating together.
--They had a falling out.
--They're not really together.
--They have separate plans. She got invited to a weekend away with someone, he wanted to stay close to home with fam.
--She doesn't like or has conflict with the finance's family.
--She is sick.
--She is in a bad place mentally/emotionally.
--She planned to work the day or so following Thanksgiving and didn't want to drive to a potentially out of town celebration.
Again, I think the most likely scenario is foul play at the hands of a close person, with the second most likely being a voluntary absence due to circumstances the public isn't aware of.
I want to know what plans the fiancé or others believed Kelsey had for the holidays and who else spoke with her in the 48 hours prior to her disappearance. And I want them to check cameras between finance's house and hers, and between hers and routes out of town.
