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The theory is that it is a bit of a mix.
Having a screwed up childhood doesn’t mean you will turn into a serial killer.
But if you have some sort of biological predisposition to that sort of thing, coupled with a terrible childhood, then bad things can happen.
Plus, we don't know if Ted was the result of an incest. If he were, he probably knew, or guessed at a certain point. He was very smart.
It might have screwed him up even more. I don't believe one incestuous case would beget a serial killer, as human race used to be more incestuous in the past, but the mere thought that Ted's birth was the result of breaking a major taboo might have had a profound effect on him. (Nothing good can be said about his maternal grandfather, btw; he was horribly abusive).