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We discussed the consequences of a hung jury a couple of times, but I personally have nothing but anecdotes from my friends as to how frequently hung jury mistrials happen in murder cases, and how many ultimately result in convictions either through plea agreements or trial.
There's a very old (44 years old) study of hung jury mistrials in California courts of the most populous jurisdictions. The study of felony cases of all types found:
"DURING THE PERIOD OF STUDY, A LITTLE MORE THAN 12 PERCENT OF THE FELONY CASES RESULTED IN HUNG JURIES. HUNG JURY DEFENDANTS WERE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM OTHER DEFENDANTS. ... THE JURIES APPEARED TO DISAGREE IN FAVOR OF CONVICTION MORE THAN TWICE AS OFTEN AS IN FAVOR OF ACQUITTAL. NEARLY TWO-FIFTHS OF ALL THE JURIES RESULTED IN AN 11-1 OR 10-2 SPLIT.... WHEN A MISTRIAL DID OCCUR, 40 PERCENT OF THE CASES WERE DISMISSED; 34 PERCENT WERE RESOLVED BY GUILTY PLEAS; AND 26 PERCENT WERE RETRIED. WHEN THERE WERE RETRIALS, 18 PERCENT WERE CONVICTED, AND 8 PERCENT WERE ACQUITTED."
I don't take Judge Murphy's decision to mean that the prosecution lacks a strong case, but since the some of us think otherwise and the possibility of a holdout juror has been raised, we should have at least some data.
@10of'Rods may have something more up to date.
Ha - I almost always have more to say, right?
Colorado's practice of "lesser included charges" is designed to help those hung juries. If the jury is deliberating after instructions about Murder One and they are deadlocked with, say, 3 jurors saying nay, then the Judge is likely to given them instructions for Murder Two (both kinds). That often helps the jury reach consensus, because it's still murder, it's still a stiff sentence, and the people who think it's Murder One can be persuaded, hopefully, that the consensus will work.
I personally am not all that optimistic about Murder One charges in this case. I see that the prosecution is strongly pushing the "May 6th" beginning for the premeditation, but I still think Barry was in the process of finding out about JL (which he denied to LE - but heck, Barry is a lying liar - he can change that statement to his defense team). He reads her journals, he sees some photos, and some of them are nudes, he may even have grabbed her phone from her as she was sexting.
I wouldn't be surprised if the defense comes round to that line, once they see he's going to be convicted for her death in some fashion.