Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #10

[otto]

#Morocco will postpone sports and cultural events over #coronavirus fears, a government committee charged with overseeing the state's response to the disease says. The country has not confirmed any cases as of yet.
Morocco to delay sports, cultural events due to coronavirus fears

Al Arabiya English on Twitter

I'm curious about stats regarding dates that each country started testing for the virus (excluding time period where countries used faulty tests).

Canada's first positive test was January 25. So many countries are only now reporting initial cases. I do wonder whether they have just started testing, and that's one reason why cases are exploding around the same time as the first death is announced.

 

[zencompass]

I'm curious about stats regarding dates that each country started testing for the virus (excluding time period where countries used faulty tests).

Canada's first positive test was January 25. So many countries are only now reporting initial cases. I do wonder whether they have just started testing, and that's one reason why cases are exploding around the same time as the first death is announced.

Dear Otto,

Thanks for the great point! It certainly speaks to what we are hearing on the news now.

 

[whitelilac]

The Olympics are what,....4 months away. I wonder how this will affect the Games.
Must be very uncertain and worrying for the athletes, and staff,......so much intense preparation.

 

[Oregonmama]

The Olympics are what,....4 months away. I wonder how this will affect the Games.
Must be very uncertain and worrying for the athletes, and staff,......so much intense preparation.

I think it will get cancelled. Some drs are predicting that this virus will hit harder mid March through May or June.

 

[otto]

The Olympics are what,....4 months away. I wonder how this will affect the Games.
Must be very uncertain and worrying for the athletes, and staff,......so much intense preparation.

Maybe it has to be like recent fashion runway shows in Milan. They compete in front of a virtual audience.

 

[zencompass]

The Olympics are what,....4 months away. I wonder how this will affect the Games.
Must be very uncertain and worrying for the athletes, and staff,......so much intense preparation.

When I read your post, I watched the following video with yesterday's date, concerning the Olympics to be held there in Japan.

There is a push to at least slow down/stop the spread of coronavirus there.
People are being asked to stay in on weekends and outdoor events are being cancelled.

After viewing this, I can't see how the Olympics won't be cancelled.

 

[Tadpole12]

Great cruise but lots of people from my group (about 125 or us) left or got sick right after getting home. I don't go to the doctor unless i'm almost dead.. but we had some that ended up with Flu A,, some with Flu B, bronchitis and Pneumonia, and a few cases of pink eye of all things. My lungs are weak to begin with so i always get a respiratory thing, since i am up late, drink more and lower my immune system. So wasn't a surprise to me... its hung around a LOT longer than normal though. So i am going to go see my reg. doctor this week. 4 weeks is a long time to cough. But i work from home, so i basically self quarantine any time i'm sick.

Glad you're getting that cough checked out, Kakidoll.

 

[What if...]

A couple of things to add to the conversations over the last few pages....

The numbers out of Hubei, IMO, are most definitely under reported - perhaps on purpose to some extent, but the overwhelming volume would have made it impossible for accurate tracking. They didn’t have enough test kits for the living, so they surely didn’t have enough to test the dead.

The only way to calculate mortality rate is after the fact - it’s not number of deaths as a percentage of the number infected. So, during an outbreak, the scientists take a snapshot of confirmed cases - say the first 1000 reported/confirmed. They have to wait until all 1000 cases are resolved. The mortality rate is calculated based on the number of deaths vs the number of recovered. So if 20 of those 1000 die, and 980 recover, mortality rate would be 2%.

This virus is slow in reaching final outcome, so without taking periodic snapshots, there are way too many confirmed cases hanging in the balance to know where it will end up.

Mortality rate is a variable based on many different factors. In Hubei, the death rate should be assumed to be higher than other locations (at least as it stands now). They were in the midst of the outbreak before it was identified, and even further along before it was publicly acknowledged. Their healthcare system was overloaded and they were unable to provide adequate care to all patients in a timely fashion.

There are still a lot of unknowns about this virus, and the world is far from knowing what the final average mortality rate will be.

Chances are, the mortality rate may end up less than the 2.3% currently being recognized, but even at 1%, if 60% of the world population gets infected, 1% of 4.7 billion people is still a lot of people, and IMO, is much much worse than the “normal flu season”

 

[Tadpole12]

Global isolation and containment

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/fulltext

 

[gitana1]

And China has an excellent health system....

Yes. But a scary government.

 

[gitana1]

My opinion has nothing to do with my personal concerns. My opinion is that the personal concerns are being vastly overblown. My hypothesis is that, as we test more, the mortality rate will actually DECREASE, because people who are barely sick from the virus (which would be MOST people) typically woudn't even bother to get tested. They'd just grab a tissue, some chicken soup and binge-watch netflix for a few days. Agree to disagree.

Well I’m going to listen to health care experts instead. And they seem to think this is serious.

 

[gitana1]

Your mom sounds like a amazing lady! Take care.

She truly is. She gave the valedictorian speeches for both her majors last year. People howled in the crowd when she gave her age. They couldn’t believe it.

 

[gregjrichards]

I think it will get cancelled. Some drs are predicting that this virus will hit harder mid March through May or June.

I also think the Olympics will get cancelled or at least postponed until this monster coronavirus is under control. I’m wondering how last minute they will cancel with people having to book flights, hotels etc.

 

[NoSI]

I think of a worrier as someone who stews about something but is too immobilized to fix it. So I’m not a worrier either. I’m a fixer.

I heard a cute saying on the subject of worry...Worry is like being in a rocking chair. You exert all sorts of effort but you’re not going to get anywhere.

Like that quote a lot @Lilibet ... also like the quote "worry is a misuse of imagination"... but realize it's difficult not to worry currently...

 

[EstrellaEspectral]

I must have missed a post. We’re you exposed.

I have links to an elementary school where a staff member came down with it. I’ve been a little under the weather this week but wasn’t showing known COVID19 symptoms.

Apparently I am now free to go about my regular activities. They investigated and do not believe there is much risk through the elementary school. Of course I only find out late on Sunday.

 

[gregjrichards]

China is struggling with coronavirus disinformation after writing off inconvenient truths as fake news

The idea speaks to the mounting anger among many Chinese people over the government's censorship, with unpleasant truths written off as "rumors" and truth tellers threatened or faced with punishment.

China has paid a price for silencing the truth. If the warnings of Li and other medical workers had not been muzzled, they could have raised more awareness among the public and better prepared them for the deadly outbreak, which has now sickened over 84,000 people and placed hundreds of millions under varying forms of lockdown.

But concealing the truth has caused another problem. Amid dwindling public trust, authorities are finding it increasingly difficult to combat potentially harmful disinformation.

China is struggling with coronavirus disinformation - CNN

 

[What if...]

For those that may not be concerned right now as you may be in an age and health group that this virus will have statistically little impact on, and you have no one in the higher risk categories that you have any concerns for - then I suppose congratulations is in order???

But, be aware of this.... the biggest difference with this particular strain at this very moment is not necessarily the mortality rate. The biggest issue is the R0 factor and the method/rate in which it spreads. If I’m wrong, I’ll gladly eat crow in a few weeks and anyone that wants can line up to say “I told you so”

But here’s the deal - too many assumptions are still being made and this virus has an unusual EXPLOSIVE spread about it. The concern should be about our healthcare system, and all healthcare systems around the globe being overwhelmed as this virus peaks in each given region. When that happens, there will be a shortage of beds, medical supplies, and medical personnel. Beyond that hump, things will return to a new normalcy. So if you so decide to continue on down the road without care as this blows through - I only ask that you take a bit of caution because the simplest of accidents could end with deadly consequences if the healthcare system is stretched beyond its limits and that simple accident has a long wait to get attended to.

Anyone that doesn’t believe they have skin in the game is sadly mistaken. Whether it be health or wealth - each of us will feel an impact to some degree.

As always, MOO!!.....

eta - autocorrect correction

 

[Trino]

Italian bike races could be doomed.
Milano-Sanremo, Strade Bianche, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the big one: Giro de Italia. The M-S is in a few weeks. It appears, because of routes, etc., there will be no contingent plan. The Giro is especially a target: May 9 - 31.

Then, of course, what will happen to the Tour de France?

 

[gitana1]

Gosh...my mother went through the same thing in Holland, ..the stories she had from that awful period. Even the tonsillectomy.... on a kitchen table. Left, by herself, right after the war to Venezuela for a job.
She lived to 98 years old, her mind fully intact.

Your mom sounds wonderful, all the best to her.

Wow!! Yeah because of the war they didn’t have things like anesthesia for most people. What a mess. I can only hope my mom maintains that WWII era strength. She always tests positive for TB but although her she was exposed and her antibodies show that, she never acquire it. I can only hope and pray. She’s super cool.

 

[Trino]

I also think the Olympics will get cancelled or at least postponed until this monster coronavirus is under control. I’m wondering how last minute they will cancel with people having to book flights, hotels etc.

There are 11,000 participants, plus 5,000 paraolympics participants. 78,000 tickets sold. Not even going there with the loss to hotels, eateries. It cost $25 billion for Tokyo to construct facilities. Going further, the cost to airlines.
The impact of cancellation is HUGE.