Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #10

[K.jill]

It's 2.5%.

There are 2036 cases in Italy, and 52 deaths.
52/2036=x/100
x=2.6
Death rate in Italy is 2.6%. It's normal. 20% typically need hospitalization, 5% are typically critical.

I was doing the math wrong I guess.
i was figuring that if 52 people died out of 2036 It would be 39 percent.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

BREAKING: City of San Antonio officials say the released and re-quarantined COVID-19 patient went to North Star Mall before returning to isolation. She was at the mall from 5:30 to 7:30 PM Saturday, according to Metro Health. The patient was asymptomatic on release. @TPRNews
Joey Palacios on Twitter

Sorry if this has been posted!

Have not seen before on thread, but again to all, please don't hesitate to repost info! I miss stuff but too important to miss if others want to repost!

Thanks

 

[whitelilac]

Here's a list of 139 products to fill your cupboards with if you want to be obsessive. (hazmat suits and giant bubbles not included). Rent a UHaul if necessary.

Also some more tips.

No masks but here are 100+ products that will work against coronavirus germs

eta: in all seriousness, useful list if one cannot find the more popular products

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Am I missing something??
The death rate here seems much higher than 2%.

Yes, the death rate is fluid, and it will and has changed. It's one think that can best be done years afterwards, not in the middle of the initial epidemics as it floats so much.

It's like the R0, it changes based on what we do as countries to address it. And as individuals do (e.g. social distancing/better hygiene by washing hands etc.)

To address your question of why that is that Italy and China have a higher mortality rate..great question as many here may have.

We've discussed on previous threads that if it is only detected in the community/state/country when it has been circulating for some time, it is detected only when severe/critical/deaths happen such as happened in Italy/China you referred to. And in that situation, contact tracing and isolation and quarantine for those is harder and sometimes just impossible. And on top of that, the hospital systems are overwhelmed and cannot take care of all the cases if it explodes. It's playing catch up to folks that were perhaps infected 3 generations of infections ago.

That's the stage that Italy is in right now. And Wuhan was. And others may be such in the VERY early stage such as Washington state in the US.(see how high current US death rate is!)

So, in a new virus to the world episode, the death rate was/is going to be higher in the beginning (Just like the R0). They both are fluid in a new to the world virus outbreak.

Then, after efforts to contain the virus are done, and to get into play the contact tracing and isolation and quarantine (and all that comes with coordinated WHO involvement to the world )... eventually the mortality rate and the R0 is going to go down. (More beds available, docs/nurses familiar with, less person to person all go hand in hand.) Again, think Wuhan.

And then there may be more waves (think Wuhan now/future) where they release the city shut down, folks go back to work, but the R0 again increases. But not as many cases and their health systems are no longer overwhelmed with cases that have on average a hospital stay of 20 days for severe/critical , they have more experience as to how to treat. So the next wave of death rates will be lower MOO. The "bell curve" has flattened.

 

[What if...]

IMO...it has been squandered in a massive way...

Unfortunately, I totally agree... just didn’t want to say it....

I have to add that I’ve been extremely disappointed by the CDC and other government agencies. The US is usually poised to “lead in response” to crisis situations. So far, there have been way too many fumbles. I feel like they’ve been caught with their pants down! This breakout has really just gotten starter and they’re already in catch up mode. I hope they can get it together enough to at least minimize the potential damage. South Korea’s testing abilities and implementation has made ours look like a bad joke thus far. I’m not sure what’s going on behind the scenes, but they need to get their act together ASAP.

IMO

 

[wendybtn]

The below article illustrates the many positive cases sitting in limbo waiting for CDC to confirm:
This past Sunday morning a patient at Doctor's
Hospital in Sarasota, Fl. overheard a medical
person and a volunteer discussing a positive
virus patient in their hospital. the patient listened quietly but then quickly called her family and warned them not to come visit.
Apparently word leaked out to other patients
during the day and finally later sunday Hospital Administrators brought around a letter to each patient admitting that there was
in fact a positive patient in isolation in the hospital but they couldn't publicize it until CDC
releases the information. This is a new case not mentioned by Fl. Gov. on Sunday.
Seems there's quite a backlog of positive cases
being held up by CDC.
Letter was also released on FB.
Officials: Patient ‘presumptively tested positive’ for COVID-19 at Sarasota hospital

That 'medical person' should be fired immediately, talking about private medical information with a volunteer. Whether she stated the person's name or not.
RN '87

 

[CoverMeCagney]

I was doing the math wrong I guess.
i was figuring that if 52 people died out of 2036 It would be 39 percent.

It would be 1 in 39, which is about 2.5%

 

[zecats]

I’m in the doctors’ waiting area currently. No one here but me. Not sure why. But.. there is a sign posted to notify staff IMMEDIATELY if you’ve been out of the country or had close contact with an infected individual in the last 2 weeks. Symptoms listed if you are experiencing anything. I’m in NJ.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Per Dr John Campbell, 20 members of Iran Parlament infected. Jeez... now that's a conspiracy theory I'm waiting on if there was one.

RIP for those individuals everywhere and their families and friends. Such tragedy.

 

[mickey2942]

Does anyone else on the thread have a compromised immune system? Now that we have a couple of cases in Oregon I told my husband I wasn't leaving the house.

Not me, but my husband is definitely in the 2.5%.

 

[mickey2942]

OK tiny poll : do we trust these people on home isolation?

No, based on my research that can be applied to "non compliance with medical directives that can directly affect others" 20% are non compliant.

 

[What if...]

Yes, the death rate is fluid, and it will and has changed. It's one think that can best be done years afterwards, not in the middle of the initial epidemics as it floats so much.

It's like the R0, it changes based on what we do as countries to address it. And as individuals do (e.g. social distancing/better hygiene by washing hands etc.)

To address your question of why that is that Italy and China have a higher mortality rate..great question as many here may have.

We've discussed on previous threads that if it is only detected in the community/state/country when it has been circulating for some time, it is detected only when severe/critical/deaths happen such as happened in Italy/China you referred to. And in that situation, contact tracing and isolation and quarantine for those is harder and sometimes just impossible. And on top of that, the hospital systems are overwhelmed and cannot take care of all the cases if it explodes. It's playing catch up to folks that were perhaps infected 3 generations of infections ago.

That's the stage that Italy is in right now. And Wuhan was. And others may be such in the VERY early stage such as Washington state in the US.(see how high current US death rate is!)

So, in a new virus to the world episode, the death rate was/is going to be higher in the beginning (Just like the R0). They both are fluid in a new to the world virus outbreak.

Then, after efforts to contain the virus are done, and to get into play the contact tracing and isolation and quarantine (and all that comes with coordinated WHO involvement to the world )... eventually the mortality rate and the R0 is going to go down. (More beds available, docs/nurses familiar with, less person to person all go hand in hand.) Again, think Wuhan.

And then there may be more waves (think Wuhan now/future) where they release the city shut down, folks go back to work, but the R0 again increases. But not as many cases and their health systems are no longer overwhelmed with cases that have on average a hospital stay of 20 days for severe/critical , they have more experience as to how to treat. So the next wave of death rates will be lower MOO. The "bell curve" has flattened.

Just want to add the following regarding mortality rate calculations:

The only way to calculate mortality rate is after the fact - it’s not number of deaths as a percentage of the number infected. So, during an outbreak, the scientists take a snapshot of confirmed cases - say the first 1000 reported/confirmed. They have to wait until all 1000 cases are resolved. The mortality rate is calculated based on the number of deaths vs the number of recovered. So if 20 of those 1000 die, and 980 recover, mortality rate would be 2%.

This virus is slow in reaching final outcome, so without taking periodic snapshots, there are way too many confirmed cases hanging in the balance to know where it will end up.

Mortality rate is a variable based on many different factors. In Hubei, the death rate should be assumed to be higher than other locations (at least as it stands now). They were in the midst of the outbreak before it was identified, and even further along before it was publicly acknowledged. Their healthcare system was overloaded and they were unable to provide adequate care to all patients in a timely fashion.

There are still a lot of unknowns about this virus, and the world is far from knowing what the final average mortality rate will be.

 

[Yesiamapirate]

For my vegan friends out there.

Vegan Prepping: Recommended Food Items - Vegan.com

PS even if you are not vegan, here are some great ideas for proteins that keep well and are shelf stable.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Does anyone else on the thread have a compromised immune system? Now that we have a couple of cases in Oregon I told my husband I wasn't leaving the house.

I’m currently off my normal immunosuppressant because of issues with it, but I understand your concern. I was very fearful last season (for good reason, and I got very ill).

 

[Deleted member 158085]

I encourage ppl to check on elderly neighbors and their parents to make sure they have the things they need. I made sure my parents were well stocked at their home in Texas so they can stay put for awhile with out having to venture in any store.

My mother has a pantry room. So I don’t worry about her supply level. I think it’s because she grew up on the farm where they had entire cellar rooms full of canned goods. Even though I didn’t not grow up on a farm, she also had a canning room in the house I grew up in.

 

[otto]

For my vegan friends out there.

Vegan Prepping: Recommended Food Items - Vegan.com

PS even if you are not vegan, here are some great ideas for proteins that keep well and are shelf stable.

Hummus dip, pickled beets.

 

[Herat]

IMO...it has been squandered in a massive way...

And, IMHO, a great deal of the US squandering was done by the lack of support for the mission and the intellectual workforce of the CDC that had been severely trimmed by HHS.

 

[Herat]

Here's a list of 139 products to fill your cupboards with if you want to be obsessive. (hazmat suits and giant bubbles not included). Rent a UHaul if necessary.

Also some more tips.

No masks but here are 100+ products that will work against coronavirus germs

eta: in all seriousness, useful list if one cannot find the more popular products

*And buy a shed for all your emergency candy*

 

[Herat]

Hummus dip, pickled beets.

Garbanzo beans are HUGE on my list - lots of protein, fiber, can make any number of savory and satisfying international recipes, or include in a 5 bean salad

 

[Deleted member 158085]

I just wanted to make sure they had enough ample supplies of their daily favorites. I wasn't prepping their pantry for a zombie attack.

Oh...kay then.