Kai Kupferschmidt
To get an idea of how difficult it would be to replicate China's approach in other countries, imagine what it would take to apply either of the below measures in a US city.
Kai Kupferschmidt on Twitter
That means (to pick a few things):
- intensive contact tracing. In Wuhan alone > 1800 teams of 5 or more people traced tens of thousands of contacts
- building two dedicated hospitals in Wuhan and pulling health care workers from all over the country
- everyone had to wear a mask when leaving home (that’s why Aylward is wearing a mask in the photo, press conference was in China)
- aggressive social distancing: closing theatres and schools, cancelling gatherings, suspending public transport
- the government used two mobile phone apps, AliPay and WeChat, to keep track of people’s movements and enforce restrictions
- and, of course, they locked down the whole city of Wuhan
To be clear how lockdown worked: With households locked in, the virus had nowhere else to go but to other members of that household. Wait long enough and everyone in the household is exposed and transmission ceases.
So China beat down the virus. Two things to watch now: 1. What happens as measures are relaxed? Mike Osterholm says it’s "like suppressing a forest fire, but not putting it out. It’ll come roaring right back.” This is why everyone is watching those China numbers so closely.
What measures a society deems warranted will also depend on how severe and how deadly the disease turns out to be. And there is still a wide margin of where that can end up. So: Really tough decisions in a situation of huge uncertainty. Welcome to an epidemic!