Dr. Kevin Purcell
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We believe the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia.”
https://t.co/8e0ZkVBdBJ
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We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle”
“3 weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down. However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic.”
“This suggests that this is controllable. We're at a critical junction right now, but we can still mitigate this substantially.”
If we implement NPIs in Seattle now (not in 3 weeks time).
When Trevor drew this illustration of potential future epidemics the same size as the one in Wuhan (after 10 weeks) neither he (nor I) realized that the lower of the two represents what was happening in Seattle (King and Sno counties).
Dr Kevin Purcell on Twitter