Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #15

[badgersmythe]

Coronavirus: Italy reports biggest daily jump in death toll Italy coronavirus death toll jumps to nearly 200

 

[badgersmythe]

Coronavirus: Advice for people with health conditions Coronavirus: Advice for people with health conditions

 

[otto]

Coronavirus: Italy reports biggest daily jump in death toll Italy coronavirus death toll jumps to nearly 200

Yesterday

 

[otto]

Coronavirus: Iran threatens 'force' to stop travel between cities


Coronavirus: Iran threatens to use 'force' to stop people travelling between cities | Daily Mail Online

Hopefully that includes cities in other parts of the world. Iranians have recklessly infected many other countries, some knowing they were infected and kept quiet until their selfish goals were achieved.

 

[Oddsocks]

'Get them off the ship': Australians trapped on second coronavirus cruise

Four Australians on the Grand Princess

 

[What if...]

Soooo many relevant posts on just one page!!

Also: Repost:


Chinese doctors say autopsies of #coronavirus victims suggest that #COVID19 is “like a combination of #SARS and #AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” and can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient survives.


Dr. Dena Grayson on Twitter

@thespybrief

“it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” and can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient survives.”

Thank you @SAMS for this post. This is the first I’ve seen that officially states “irreversible” lung damage. IMO, this tells me that if there are additional waves of outbreak, the mortality rate will increase. The “irreversible lung damage” will be an underlying condition with the next go around. Getting progressively worse each time a person gets infected. - NOT GOOD!

This is my simple math and I don't think it's a worse case.
The high risk group is baby boomers, over 60. There are 73 million in the US.
11 million - 15% of them get the virus (little lower than other countries)
1 million - 10% require hospitalization....so our hospitals are over-run. We don't even have this many beds open.
550,000 deaths- 5% of infected die....much, much lower % than other countries.
It just gets worse with higher percentages.
Speed is survival....the faster we test, the faster we can save lives.....

The only comment I would add is that I believe your estimates are very conservative. I too would expect the mortality rate in first world countries, including the US, to be lower - BUT, ANY healthcare system that is too overwhelmed to provide needed care will not be able to reduce fatalities. The best healthcare in the world doesn’t do any good once its capacity has been exceeded!

Testing for the virus in any given area is a necessity when attempting containment or mitigation of an outbreak. But there is a tipping point where mitigation is no longer plausible. Once a virus saturates a given population, preventative measures tend to take a back seat.

Quoting OddSocks post from thread #14



I believe a mathematical thing that has to do with the growth rate being on an exponential curve right now. I'm not good at maths so someone might correct me or be able to explain it better?

It's like, 100 people have the virus on day 1, and assuming 100% recovery rate, they will go to the 'recovered' column on day 15.

In the meantime, during those 15 days, more people have got infected. So if another 100 people contracted the virus between day 1 and day 15, you've got 200 confirmed cases, with 100 recovered.

We'll see that pattern change as growth plateaus and then eventually comes down the other side of the peak of the curve.

But before that happens, I would expect that difference between recovered and confirmed to go up, so you might see 100 recovered to 300 confirmed (as a ratio, not as specific numbers).

You could check it out on the figures for South Korea and Italy for the past few weeks and look at the recovered vs current confirmed cases. That should be even worse for that ratio as they're on a steep upward curve, whereas the global figures currently mostly consist of the Chinese cases which have already peaked. But, the predictions seem to suggest that is going to be their first peak, and they'll have another peak later in the year. They've already started importing cases from the rest of the world, and I don't think they'll be able to contain them, they should start seeding new outbreaks as they have in places like Italy and France.

I totally agree! I also want to add that the “wave” we’ve seen in China hasn’t been the natural curve of this virus. The wave in Hubei peaked in February, but it’s really an artificial peak due to their extreme actions and quarantine measures. In effect, the progression of the outbreak hasn’t ended so much as it’s been paused. The world has yet to see an outbreak of COVID-19 complete a natural cycle in any given location.

The mortality rates are very dynamic and fluid right now. I think we can expect the published mortality rate to bounce around quite a bit for at least awhile. We’re still in the early stages of progression and outcomes. There are still many unknowns, to many cases that have yet to be resolved one way or another, and a multitude of variables to be considered. IMO, the data will have a bumpy ride until this all plays out a bit further. Viral outbreaks are exponential in nature, and that creates an added level of difficulty when it comes to creating forecast models.

 

[badgersmythe]

Yesterday

View attachment 236948

I’ve been watching Italy closely as my daughter was due to travel there in 6 weeks. She’s just told me she’s cancelled it. Phew!

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Scotland women's rugby player tests positive

A member of the Scotland women's rugby team has tested positive for coronavirus.

The player has been transferred to a medical facility and the Women's Six Nations against France scheduled for Saturday night has been called off.

Another seven Scotland players and members of the management team are self isolating.

 

[otto]

'The only comment I would add is that I believe your estimates are very conservative. I too would expect the mortality rate in first world countries, including the US, to be lower - BUT, ANY healthcare system that is too overwhelmed to provide needed care will not be able to reduce fatalities. The best healthcare in the world doesn’t do any good once its capacity has been exceeded!

<respectfully snipped>

Interesting. Why would mortality rates be lower in the US? The country used a faulty test until February and then had no capacity to produce and distribute test kits. Official responses across the country cover the spectrum of panic to overblown hype.

True, once health care systems are overwhelmed, devastation will start. The US does not seem to have the organizational structure to follow the Chinese lead and confine the problem. If there are no hospital beds, and people of all ages are dying because there is no health care, maybe it will be real. Granted, this is absurdly dystopian, but maybe it happens.

 

[otto]

I totally agree! I also want to add that the “wave” we’ve seen in China hasn’t been the natural curve of this virus. The wave in Hubei peaked in February, but it’s really an artificial peak due to their extreme actions and quarantine measures. In effect, the progression of the outbreak hasn’t ended so much as it’s been paused. The world has yet to see an outbreak of COVID-19 complete a natural cycle in any given location.

The mortality rates are very dynamic and fluid right now. I think we can expect the published mortality rate to bounce around quite a bit for at least awhile. We’re still in the early stages of progression and outcomes. There are still many unknowns, to many cases that have yet to be resolved one way or another, and a multitude of variables to be considered. IMO, the data will have a bumpy ride until this all plays out a bit further. Viral outbreaks are exponential in nature, and that creates an added level of difficulty when it comes to creating forecast models.

I think the point that everyone in the US is missing is that China went overboard to contain the virus. They failed, but they certainly slowed it down for now.

We need the names of the deceased to find the correct number of deaths in China. It seems odd that there are 3500 deaths world wide, yet the crematoriums in China were going 24/7 for weeks.

 

[enelram]

Florida reporting 2 Deaths!!!
1 death case in Santa Rosa County
1 NEW CASE death in Lee County
2 new cases in Broward Co. (South Fl.)
No details on either death case.
Per local ABC News Sat. am 3/7

 

[Oddsocks]

LitCovid - NCBI - NLM - NIH

LitCovid is a curated literature hub for tracking up-to-date scientific information about the 2019 novel Coronavirus.

 

[enelram]

Florida - as of 3/6/20 9:57pm
7 positive cases
2 RESIDENT DEATHS
88 pending results
278 being monitored
188 total tested
COVID-19 | Florida Department of Health

 

[otto]

Florida reporting 2 Deaths!!!
1 death case in Santa Rosa County
1 NEW CASE death in Lee County
2 new cases in Broward Co. (South Fl.)
No details on either death case.
Per local ABC News Sat. am 3/7

The first thing we want to know when we hear about a nearby confirmed infection is : where did that person work, and how long was that person in the community before reporting with the virus. If that person worked in a bank for a week before showing symptoms, everyone who worked in the bank and went to the bank has to tested, but chances are they all became infected from the bank contact and they spread to family members.

That is a possibility, but again, I'm a dystopian perspective in this discussion.

 

[FrostOwl]

I'll stick to almond milk also. Oat milk has too many calories.

Be sorry for the bees: 'Like sending bees to war': the deadly truth behind your almond milk obsession

 

[otto]

LitCovid - NCBI - NLM - NIH

LitCovid is a curated literature hub for tracking up-to-date scientific information about the 2019 novel Coronavirus.

There are some smug grant recipients today, having received a bucket load of money to find a vaccine. It's an international effort that will take 18 months. The first step should be to find an accurate test method that does not require two tries to be sure about the results. Scientists and governments seem to be tripping past this rather crucial point.

Everything seems so backwards and illogical regarding how this virus has been handled on both global and national levels. I sure hope that when the poop slops through the fan, special protective rooms for those who make decisions are ineffective.

 

[enelram]

The first thing we want to know when we hear about a nearby confirmed infection is : where did that person work, and how long was that person in the community before reporting with the virus. If that person worked in a bank for a week before showing symptoms, everyone who worked in the bank and went to the bank has to tested, but chances are they all became infected from the bank contact and they spread to family members.

That is a possibility, but again, I'm a dystopian perspective in this discussion.

don't hold your breath, this is Florida.
can't run off the tourists.

edit- what the first 7 cases tell us is that there are active cases ALL OVER the state. SW- Ft. Myers area, NW=Pensacola area, SE- Ft. Lauderdale area, Sarasota area, and Tampa area.

 

[otto]

don't hold your breath, this is Florida.
can't run off the tourists.

edit- what the first 7 cases tell us is that there are active cases ALL OVER the state. SW- Ft. Myers area, NW=Pensacola area, SE- Ft. Lauderdale area, Sarasota area, and Tampa area.

I've been curious about Florida, the sunshine law state that releases all legal documents prior to trial. Why is that state allowed to withhold statewide health information that should be openly available as soon as it is discovered (individual legal rights).

Tourists are gone. If this had been handled properly from the beginning with physical barriers between infected populations and everyone else, it would be last week's story. Instead, it is tomorrow's headline. Politics and economics were a priority for the sprint, turns out this is a marathon.

 

[Mo Thuairim]

Coronavirus latest: St Patrick's Day festival go-ahead criticised by doctors

The Government’s go-ahead for the St Patrick's Day Festival in the face of the coronavirus crisis has been strongly criticised by leading doctors.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, backed by chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan, said the extravaganza – which will attract thousands from overseas and bring crowds on the streets across the country – would go ahead at this stage.

He made his comments as another five people were diagnosed with the coronavirus in the Republic last night, bringing the total to 18.

However, the decision to allow the festival to go ahead was questioned by leading oncologist Dr John Crown, who said: “I think it should be cancelled.”

Coombe Hospital obstetrician Dr Carmen Regan warned: “We need the Government to take hard decisions. It should be postponed.”

Kingston Mills, an immunologist at Trinity College, added: “Any large gathering is a risk. It’s about nipping this in the bud.”

Meanwhile, in Cork University Hospital 60 staff are self-isolating for 14 days.

 

[enelram]

I've been curious about Florida, the sunshine law state that releases all legal documents prior to trial. Why is that state allowed to withhold statewide health information that should be openly available as soon as it is discovered (individual legal rights).

Tourists are gone. If this had been handled properly from the beginning with physical barriers between infected populations and everyone else, it would be last week's story. Instead, it is tomorrow's headline. Politics and economics were a priority for the sprint, turns out this is a marathon.

Gov. DeSantis proclaimed 2 weeks ago that he was not 'allowed' to discuss testing numbers,
active/pending tests, etc. due to a state law.
HUH? He was immediately attacked and barely back down- for a bit.
Tourism is king here. Disney World rules local
and state decisions. Back room decisions to
keep information out of the news to slow down
the convention cancellations and family leisure
trips coming in. Orlando/Orange County press conference this week was "We're open for business, come on down. No problems here."
Then complaining about the huge conventions cancelling and the dollars lost, etc.
It's all about the money. And the Optics.
Disney has closed all Asian parks, finally, so they will delay closing Orlando until no one shows up. That's 50,000 or so daily moving through the area.
Florida will be in crisis mode very shortly.